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élection générale (Canada) - 2011

Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques


La prévision a changé
2009-09-01 15:59:00
 


 
Profil de circonscription

candidats:

Cadieux, Pierre

Caron, Guy

Denis, Bertin

Guimond, Claude

Pelletier, Clément

Député:
Louise Thibault

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • kamouraska-riviere-du-loup-temiscouata-les-basques (89/218 Polls)
  • rimouski-neigette-et-la-mitis (122/176 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


  •  


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 05 01 Siger Yukonner
    76.9.54.164
    This riding will go NDP. Local NDP candidate with long time involvement in the region.Also ,the former Bloc MP criticized the party and Duceppe. With Quebec's Orange Tide, an easy call. Sorry to realize you don't see it.
    Ce conté ira au NPD. Un candidat local fort avec une implication régional de longue date. en plus, la candidate passée du Bloc a critiqué le parti et son chef Duceppe. Avec la vague orange au Québec, c'est un choix facile à faire. Désolé de constater que vous ne voyez pas cela...
    11 05 01 binriso
    142.167.166.13
    Les Conservateurs ont eu 18% de la vote en 2008 et ca ne donne meme pas deuxieme place. Si les Bloquistes sont defait dans 2011, c'est par l'NPD.
    11 04 25
    69.157.135.253
    Dans cette élection, il pourrait y avoir une surpise de la part des conservateurs, car grâce à la montée du NPD qui divise le vote de gauche, et la sympathie des gens des basques et de témiscouata pour le préfet Bertin Denis, il se pourrait fort bien que les conservateurs réussisent à se faufiler.....
    11 04 24 expat
    209.105.131.192
    This is a likely Bloc hold, but if the NDP is really running ahead of the Bloc province-wide, then don't rule out an upset here. The NDP candidate, Guy Caron, is arguably one of their potential Quebec stars - a Rimouski native, he is an economist who was president of the Canadian Federation of Students and who has worked with a number of national unions and progressive advocacy organizations.
    At the moment, the odds seem to be against such a dramatic vote shift from the Bloc to the NDP, but waves in Quebec sometimes defy logical expectations. If that is happening this year, in this riding the NDP is at least fielding the kind of highly credible candidate with strong local background who could take advantage of the opportunity.
    Additionally, there is a remote chance that the Conservative, a local municipal official, could slip in between a weakened Bloc and a surging NDP and claim the seat - although that would truly require the stars, moon and precise voting percentages to align perfectly in favour of the Conservatives, something unlikely to happen.
    In the very fluid environment of Quebec politics this year, anything is possible. But the likeliest outcome is a Bloc win, albeit much more narrowly than in previous years.
    11 03 28 M.Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    Unlike the neighbouring ridings which could be somewhat competitive, this should be an easy Bloc win.
    10 01 24 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    174.89.192.10
    Rimouski tends to be more of a seperatist bastion than neighbouring ridings (look at provincial results and you'll see that the Liberals and ADQ always did poorly here and better in neighbouring ridings). No surprise that this translates into BQ wins federally. In the previous electionprediction-go-round, we mused that this riding could be book-ended by CPC gains. We failed to take into account the a popular former liberla MNA was running in the riding to the east. Well now the CPC have picked up the riding to the west and the Liberals are running the same popular candidate. We will rephrase that musing and say it'll be interesting if this riding is book-ended by Federalist parties.
    09 09 01 Paul Tremblay
    67.159.44.51
    Since 1993 this riding has voted for the Bloc in every election and no federalist candidate ever came close to winning. Easy Bloc win.



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