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élection générale (Canada) - 2011

Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou


La prévision a changé
2011-05-01 22:13:00
 


 
Profil de circonscription

candidats:

Gervais, Léandre

Kasudluak, Johnny

Lévesque, Yvon

Matte, Jean-Maurice

Saganash, Romeo

Député:
Yvon Lévesque

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • abitibi-baie-james-nunavik (161/224 Polls)
  • roberval (24/158 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


  •  


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    11 05 01 Stéphane Gaudet
    66.130.172.171
    Je ne crois pas que Saganash gagne, le sondage dans la circonscription le plaçait troisième alors que la progression du NPD avait déjà été enregistrée ailleurs. Les régions éloignées des grands centres, comme l'Abitibi, le Sag-Lac, la Gaspésie et la Côte-Nord échappent habituellement aux vagues qui favorisent les tiers partis plus au sud (ex: l'ADQ n'a pas percé dans ces 4 régions en 2007) et restent fidèles aux partis plus traditionnels. Le NPD brouille les cartes, mais la lutte se fait entre le député sortant du Bloc et le candidat conservateur. Le Bloc perd des appuis vers le NPD, mais l'ampleur de ce transfert de votes n'est pas la même partout au Québec; je crois qu'elle est moindre dans cette région. Je ne serait pas surpris que les conservateurs remportaient ce siège sur division du vote entre BQ et NPD, mais je penche plutôt vers une réélection difficile du député sortant, le Bloc perdant ici probablement moins d'appuis que le PCC.
    11 04 30 Michael Fox
    99.232.58.59
    The Conservatives will maintain their support from last election of around 30% in this riding. A large portion of the BQ support will shift to the NDP.
    I'm predicting a very close one:
    Conservative = 30%
    NDP = 28%
    BQ = 25%
    Liberal = 15%
    It could go NDP, but I'm flipping a coin and going Conservative here. Definitely not BQ or Liberal.
    11 04 29 Paul Tremblay
    74.63.112.138
    Even if the NDP wins 30 or even 35 percent of the vote in Quebec I can't see them winning this riding.
    Vote-splitting among federalists will unfortunately ensure another win for the Bloc.
    11 04 29 jeff316
    69.165.140.216
    I'm not confident that the polls will turn into votes. Particularly because the NDP needs it's 'famed' get-out-the-vote machine even to secure solid lefty ridings elsewhere. Where it fails, they lose (e.g. Winnipeg-North by-election). Plus, only recently did isolated Native communities start voting reliably NDP in rural northern Ontario and Sask and BC - after years of NDP organization and strength in those areas. It'll be hard to secure their vote in ridings where there is little organization, or where it is rural and northern. This one is both. The NDP might squeak some wins where they have staff and volunteers - e.g. in Montréal and the Gatineau area - this one might be close but I'm not confident the NDP will win. But I've been wrong before.
    11 04 26 Dr Bear & prof Ape
    65.92.25.58
    If we ignored the fact that the NDP is now polling over 30% in Quebec and ignore that the CPC is polling at 14% (down from 21% in '08) then we might think the CPC will take this riding. No, if numbers like this hold the NDP will be taking a lot of seats in Quebec...really a lot! At this point, only delusional people will think the CPC are going to add to their seat total in Quebec. The fall of the BQ will allow the CPC to keep many seats that they already have but there will be no new pick ups.
    11 04 24 jeff316
    69.165.140.216
    Re: northern Ontario - yep, I've lived in worked in some of those communities so I know there's a cultural link but politically they are two different constituencies. Saganash will have a tough time getting the vote out in the northern communities, and a tougher time trying to win enough of Val d'Or and the southern towns that he needs to clinch. If anything, the real threat to the Bloc is the Conservative candidate.
    11 04 23 R.O.
    99.246.102.2
    Updating old too close to call post to now a possible tory pick up . the conditions are now right for conservatives to pick up this seat but it could remain very close on eday , a recent poll of riding had bloc at 30 and cpc at 24 with ndp and libs 20 each . Harper visited the riding again so it must be one there targeting and Jean Maurice Matte is back as the candidate. he was well liked here in 08 and came very close to winning . Duceppe also visited so blco seems worried about holding seat. the stronger than usual ndp candidate is likely to take away some bloc and liberal votes . meaning conservatives wouldn't need to gain that much to possibly win the riding , a riding that has often been represented by a federalist party over the years.
    Mise à jour de vieux trop proche pour appeler post maintenant un tory possible ramasser. les conditions sont maintenant réunies pour les conservateurs de ramasser ce siège, mais il pourrait rester très près Eday, un récent sondage de la circonscription avait bloc à 30 et à 24 cpc avec le NPD et libs 20 chacune. Harper a visité la circonscription, donc il doit être l'un il ciblage et Jean Maurice Matte est de retour en tant que candidat. il était très aimé ici en 08 et est venu très près de gagner. Duceppe a également visité afin blco semble inquiet sur ​​la tenue du siège. le candidat du NPD fort que d'habitude est susceptible d'emporter certains votes en bloc et libérale. conservateurs sens n'aurait pas besoin de gagner que beaucoup à la chance de gagner la circonscription, une circonscription qui a souvent été représenté par un parti fédéraliste au fil des ans.
    11 04 23
    99.246.102.2
    Updating old too close to call post to now a possible tory pick up . the conditions are now right for conservatives to pick up this seat but it could remain very close on eday , a recent poll of riding had bloc at 30 and cpc at 24 with ndp and libs 20 each . Harper visited the riding again so it must be one there targeting and Jean Maurice Matte is back as the candidate. he was well liked here in 08 and came very close to winning . Duceppe also visited so bloc seems worried about holding seat. the stronger than usual ndp candidate is likely to take away some bloc and liberal votes . meaning conservatives wouldn't need to gain that much to possibly win the riding , a riding that has often been represented by a federalist party over the years.
    Mise à jour de vieux trop proche pour appeler post maintenant un tory possible ramasser. les conditions sont maintenant réunies pour les conservateurs de ramasser ce siège, mais il pourrait rester très près Eday, un récent sondage de la circonscription avait bloc à 30 et à 24 cpc avec le NPD et libs 20 chacune. Harper a visité la circonscription, donc il doit être l'un il ciblage et Jean Maurice Matte est de retour en tant que candidat. il était très aimé ici en 08 et est venu très près de gagner. Duceppe a également visité afin bloc semble inquiet sur ​​la tenue du siège. le candidat du NPD fort que d'habitude est susceptible d'emporter certains votes en bloc et libérale. conservateurs sens n'aurait pas besoin de gagner que beaucoup à la chance de gagner la circonscription, une circonscription qui a souvent été représenté par un parti fédéraliste au fil des ans.
    11 04 22 E Rougeau
    206.126.86.230
    This riding had the conservatives finish 2nd in the last election. Real close to the BQ who won this seat.
    With the splitting of leftist vote between BQ and NDP, this will go Conservative pretty easily.
    11 04 22 william K
    76.66.181.106
    je pense que les Conservateurs vont prendre ce comté - le candidat Jean-Maurice Matte est très connu & respecté... le NPD & le Bloc vont diviser le vote... les libéraux vont changer d'avis soit pour le NPD ou le PCC...
    le PCC dans une lutte très serrée
    11 04 21 JC
    24.150.190.94
    Saganash has it, with the NDP firmly on top in Quebec Polls this riding is going to fall to them.
    11 04 20 Bernard von Schulmann
    24.68.54.103
    A riding level poll has come out indicating this is a potential four way race
    Details are here:
    http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2011/04/northern-quebec-riding-polls-bode-well.html
    11 04 20
    99.241.8.136
    To Jeff316, ‘but can anyone see the NDP carrying Malartic, Matagimi and Val d'Or? That's what they're going to have to do to win this riding. Saganash or not, it's not happening.’
    Actually, people in these North-Western Quebec communities, especially Val-D'Or, identify more with their North-Eastern Ontario neighbors in Timmins, Kap, and New Liskard (‘Temiskaming Shores’), than they do with Montreal or Quebec City. I might mention that Northern Ontario elects NDP MPs by large margins.
    11 04 20 binriso
    142.167.166.13
    In riding poll shows the BQ in the lead but the NDP are triple their 2008 support and just behind the Conservatives, and both are only a few points behind the Bloc. 30-24-22-20 BQ, CPC, NDP, LIB. Interesting that the NDP are the only party polling significantly higher than 08 and since the party is polling around 25 percent now, and less than 10 points behind the Bloc in some surveys, they’ll likely win here especially if First Nation votes turnout in larger numbers.
    11 04 18 wolvie15@gmail.com
    70.80.83.11
    Les sondages nationaux montrent une baisse du vote du Bloc et une forte poussée NPD au Québec. Ce qui met ce comté dans la catégorie '' too close to call '' en ce moment. Si je devais mettre un petit $2,00 sur cette course, je le mettrais sur le NPD.
    11 04 17 jeff316
    69.165.134.211
    The NDP scored 8% here last election. That's not much of a springboard to a victory even in a three-way race. I certainly don't live in the riding but can anyone see the NDP carrying Malartic, Matagimi and Val d'Or? That's what they're going to have to do to win this riding. Saganash or not, it's not happening.
    11 04 13 Stéphane Gaudet
    66.130.172.171
    Il ne faut pas connaître le Québec ni la circonscription pour croire que le NPD a plus de chances de gagner ici parce qu'il a un candidat-vedette. Même avec un candidat de la trempe de Saganash, le NPD n'a AUCUNE chance de remporter le comté. Zéro. Il ne finira pas même deuxième. La seule menace au Bloc vient des conservateurs, mais le Bloc est très bien implanté dans la région, le PCC assez peu. Ce comté demeurera bloquiste, assurément, il ne devrait même pas être dans la colonne ‘too close to call’.
    11 04 12 Teddy Boragina
    174.118.61.19
    In 1988 the NDP took 14% across Quebec, their best result ever. This election they are polling at 21% province wide, and even in a bad poll, 15%. There is enough ‘party vote’ for the NDP to do well in ALL Quebec ridings, add to that a good candidate, and this will become one of the NDP's 3 seats from Quebec.
    11 04 11 Paul Tremblay
    74.63.112.138
    Many posters here seem to be quite misinformed about this riding and even Quebec politics in general.
    First thing, Jean-Maurice Matte is the Conservative candidate and this has been known for at least a month. He was also the Conservative candidate in 2008 and he lost by only 2,500 votes.
    Second thing, it is technically true that the now former Liberal candidate who made anti-aboriginal comments ran in a neighboring riding, but this is highly misleading as most voters in ABJNE live literally hundred of kilometres away from Manicouagan.
    Third thing, aboriginals are NOT popular in Quebec, and this is especially true with Bloc voters even though they are leftists, one must not forget that they are also nationalists.
    Fourth thing, aboriginals in Quebec do not vote in ‘white’ elections and while an aboriginal candidate may encourage some aboriginals to vote, history shows that most still prefer to abstain.
    I don't know at this point who will win ABJNE but I can tell everyone that the NDP has ZERO chance of winning here, even if they somehow manage to get 30 percent of the vote in the province they won't win this one.
    The Conservatives have targeted this riding, this fact is widely known among those who know Quebec politics. This is not a bad choice as this riding heavily favoured Social Credit in the 1960s/1970s. Matte is a good candidate and he is the obvious federalist alternative to the Bloc incumbent, which is always a great advantage. Matte has a good chance to win this riding, but I believe he will need a late swing in Quebec in favour of the Tories -- this will happen if ten days before the vote the Conservative Party appears to be clearly on its way to a majority, the problem is that it is not obvious at all that the CPC will be in that position.
    If Matte doesn't win the Bloc will keep this riding.
    At this point I would say that Yvon Lévesque has a 60 percent chance of keeping his seat.
    11 04 10 SouthpawPundit
    75.119.252.223
    Both the BQ and its electorate have become more left-leaning over the course of the Duceppe era, understandable, given that the man's a labour organizer, an ex-Maoist, and the son of prominent founding member of the NDP. Adding to leftward drift of the BQ base is the fact that, in the past two elections as well as in subsequent byelections, the Tories have made significant gains at the expense of the BQ's right flank.
    It stands to reason, then, that the sorts of people who still vote BQ are pretty gau-gauche and probably don't have a very strong stomach for the sort of racism on display here. With the NDP rapidly gaining electoral viability in Quebec and becoming the second choice of a strong plurality of BQ supporters, ridings with star NDP candidates like this one will very likely change their stripes. I forsee a contingent of 3 to 4 Quebec NDP MPs in the next parliament, certainly not bad for a party that was frequently outpolled by Natural Law and Christian Heritage a decade ago.
    11 04 07 binriso
    142.167.166.13
    There are more than enough federalist votes here to sink Levesque and the BQ and they arent even polling as well as 2008. The Conservatives dont even have a candidate here yet and should lose votes. The neighboring riding's Liberal candidate shot his mouth off about aboriginals and likely caused a bit of damage to this riding as well, even if he was replaced. Also the Liberals are mostly focused on Montreal area ridings as well as a few in the Gaspe/Eastern Townships/other areas close to Montreal. Meanwhile the NDP are around 20% in Quebec polling and have a star candidate running for them, while that doesnt mean they will win a whole lot of seats, they would win here due to the local situation.
    11 04 07 FP
    12.43.88.120
    This one is interesting. Val d'Or voted conservatives in the last election, while other cities (exeption of natives) voted BQ. The question is: Can NDP's Romeo Saganash convince people of Val d'Or ? Val d'Or is not a separatist stronghold, this is a swing city. It voted for liberals during Chretien Era, and voted for conservatives.
    The question is: Will conservative voters change their opions from far right to far left ?
    Will racism play a role in this campaign ? Especially with Cree and Saganash stances against hydro development ?
    I think, unfortunately, that it will ... and BQ will win again in a very close race
    11 04 02 Social Democrat
    173.212.64.201
    This will be a shocker for a lot of people... NDP pickup. The NDP are doing better in Quebec than in 2008. With this star candidate, an NDP win.
    11 03 31 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    198.96.35.248
    The NDP is running a very strong candidate here. While it's not clear they can win, they might spoil the balance enough to allow anyone to win.
    11 03 31 expat
    209.105.128.183
    The NDP announced today that their candidate would be respected and popular Cree leader Romeo Saganash. This is, indeed, a star recruit for them, and will certainly make this a very competitive riding if they mount an aggressive campaign on his behalf, inspire a strong Cree and Innu turnout, and maintain their historically strong polling in Quebec.
    While the Bloc is probably still somewhat favoured to retain this seat, Saganash's entry creates a fascinating race that bears watching throughout the campaign. It certainly has potential for an upset.
    11 03 31 Rob D
    38.99.187.100
    Romeo Saganash is running for the NDP.
    http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Popular+Cree+leader+running/4532642/story.html
    This is a potential game changer in a sparsely populated far north riding, where the individual candidate can be key.
    11 03 28 M.Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    The Liberals may do well in the Far North amongst the Aboriginal community, but that only makes up about a 1/3 of the riding never mind turnout is usually rather low in those communities. This may provide a good base for the Liberals as it did in the 90s, but with little support amongst the Francophones, they cannot win this.
    11 03 24 Initial
    216.221.36.202
    The IPSOS-Reid poll (http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Tories+begin+campaign+ahead+Liberals+poll+shows/4498886/story.html) shows that the BQ has a percentage of 41% in the province whereas Conservatives are second with 25% of the voters. In 2008, the province 38.1% voted BQ, and 21.7% Conservatives. Both parties should see their proportion of voters rise, however the margin should tighten a bit. BQ is going to hold this riding.
    Le sondage IPSOS-Reid montre que le Bloc a un pourcentage de 41% dans la province tandis que les Conservateurs sont deuxièmes en ayant 25% des électeurs. En 2008, 38,1% ont voté Bloc, 21,7% ont voté Conservateurs. Les deux partis devraient voir leur proportion augmenter, cependant la marge entre les deux partis devrait fondre un peu. Le Bloc gardera cette circonscription.
    09 12 11 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    This is likely a riding where the conservatives are still fairly competitive and more than likely a bloc / conservative race in the next election although it had previous been a bloc / liberal race. in 2008 the conservatives came within 2500 votes of winning this riding making it one of there closer ridings in quebec and one of the half dozen or so bloc ridings the conservatives could still possibly pick up. it should also be noted that current bloc mp Yvon Levesque is geting older and now around 69 years old , so he may or may not continue to run here i would suspect. its also unclear what the conservatives will be doing for a candidate here.
    Ceci est probablement un prendre ou les conservateurs sont toujours assez competitifs et plus que probablement un bloc/la course conservatrice dans la prochaine élection bien qu'il a eu precedent a ete un bloc/la course liberale. dans 2008 les conservateurs est venu dans 2500 votes de gagner ce prendre le faisant un de la plus pres debarrasse a Québec et une des demi douzaine ou si le bloc debarrasse les conservateurs peuvent toujours probablement Prendre. il devrait etre aussi note que le bloc l'actuel mp Yvon Levesque vieillit et maintenant autour de 69 ans vieux, donc il peut ou ne peut pas continuer a courir ici je soupconnerais. son aussi incertain que les conservateurs feront pour un candidat ici.
    09 11 23 JFBreton
    207.134.225.57
    Je suis tout à fait en accord avec David. Rien de très conservateur dans cette circonscription. Le vote sera concentré au sud. Peu de vote des communautés cris et innus. Le Bloc devrait l'emporter sans trop de problème.
    09 09 14 Marco Ricci
    72.138.2.68
    This was a decent result for the Conservatives last time since they came only 9 points behind the BQ, but they may now lose ground in this riding and could finish behind the Liberals. The Liberals finished 2nd in the other Abitibi riding in 2008, and that may happen here in the next election.
    The Liberals are also planning on beginning to target the Abitibi ridings again so that they can build back their base of support here. They used to hold this riding prior to the sponsorship scandal.
    09 09 12 binriso
    156.34.209.15
    As of now, I cant even find a riding (that they dont already have) where the Conservatives have a good chance of winning in Quebec. Louis Hebert which they lost last time will be a 2-way race between the Liberals and BQ and the CPC are about mid-teens levels in support provincewide. Thats five or six points lower than 08 and frankly they arent getting any majority without a few more seats in Quebec. This would probably be one of the top targets in that case, but its almost certainly BQ and the CPC are probably going to play a defensive game to protect their at-risk incumbents.
    09 09 06 David
    24.37.141.95
    ABJNE Conservateur... Ok, il y a le fantasme et la réalité. Dans la réalité, la grande majorité des électeurs de cette circonscription se retrouve dans le territoire au sud (Val-d'Or, Lebel-sur-Quévillon, etc...) qui n'a absolument rien de conservateur. Dans la réalité toujours, le vote des électeurs du sud est beaucoup plus élevé que celui des électeurs des communautés Cris et Innu (où les taux d'abstention sont très élevés!) Toujours dans la réalité, ce comté a toujours voté Bloc depuis 1993 sauf évidemment pour le très populaire Guy St-Julien. Ce comté a donc toutes les chances de demeurer au sein du Bloc Québécois.
    09 09 06 David
    24.37.141.95
    ABJNE Conservateur... Ok, il y a le fantasme et la réalité. Dans la réalité, la grande majorité des électeurs de cette circonscription se retrouve dans le territoire au sud (Val-d'Or, Lebel-sur-Quévillon, etc...) qui n'a absolument rien de conservateur. Dans la réalité toujours, le vote des électeurs du sud est beaucoup plus élevé que celui des électeurs des communautés Cris et Innu (où les taux d'abstention sont très élevés!) Toujours dans la réalité, ce comté a toujours voté Bloc depuis 1993 sauf évidemment pour le très populaire Guy St-Julien. Ce comté a donc toutes les chances de demeurer au sein du Bloc Québécois.
    09 08 27 NorthernRaven
    130.209.6.43
    Too Close to Call,
    This is a BQ Vs. Federalist riding, where the south votes for the BQ, and the Northern Cree for Federalist. The Federalist vote is usually the majority, though split between the Conservatives and the Liberals. The BQ dropped their vote from 14,000 to 11,000, but the Conservatives have increased their vote from 1265 in 2004 to 6700 and 8442 at the expense of the Liberals. With the Conservatives push with Northern Developement, and foretelling that the Conservatives will likely win the election (Min. Or Maj.), expect this riding to vote be on the Government side of the house, meaning the Conservatives should gain votes and defeat the BQ incumbant from the Southern Votes.



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