Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2011

Central Nova


Prediction Changed
2009-08-22 17:24:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Chisholm, Matthew

Hamilton, John R.

MacKay, Peter G.

Parker, David K.

Incumbent:
Hon. Peter G. MacKay

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • pictou-antigonish-guysborough (185/217 Polls)
  • sackville-musquodoboit-valley-eastern-shore (21/218 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


  •  


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    11 04 29 CGH
    129.173.199.90
    I think the Tories take this riding for granted and the NDP surge will take advantage of their complacency. There was a surge here provincially and similar to South Shore-St. Margaret's, that will likely push this one into the orange column and Peter Mackay to a law firm in Toronto
    11 04 26
    99.192.32.152
    With only 4.7% in the difference this could be the Election that the MacKay dynasty comes to an end.The deciding factor in this race might be just how badly the Liberal vote collapses in the final week.Peter may be able to hang on to his seat or the N.D.P. just may pull off a shocker.This one is TCTC.
    11 04 26 Franz
    142.239.254.19
    David Parker may surprise people here and he has provincial organization backing. Peter Mackay is not the universally loved politician in Central Nova as people outside the riding assume.
    There is a university in the riding which tends to go NDP as well as a significant union vote. This is why the riding has sometimes been closer than anticipated.
    11 04 03 C.A.B.
    76.70.89.95
    Peter MacKay has weathered strong challenges from all sides in the last few cycles, but this time it seems the opposition has finally relented, all with good reason: the NDP, though they acquitted themselves well here in 2008, are now tainted by an unpopular provincial government; this was the only third-place finish for the Liberals in Nova Scotia in 2006, and, of course, they didn't run anyone here in 2008, meaning that their organization is shot, demonstrated by the lack of a candidate one week after the writ was dropped; the Greens, for their part, are likely to plummet twenty points or more without May and will be lucky to finish a poor third. All this disarray will result in a comfortable Tory win.
    11 04 03 C.A.B.
    76.70.89.95
    Peter MacKay has weathered strong challenges from all sides in the last few cycles, but this time it seems the opposition has finally relented, all with good reason: the NDP, though they acquitted themselves well here in 2008, are now tainted by an unpopular provincial government; this was the only third-place finish for the Liberals in Nova Scotia in 2006, and, of course, they didn't run anyone here in 2008, meaning that their organization is shot, demonstrated by the lack of a candidate one week after the writ was dropped; the Greens, for their part, are likely to plummet twenty points or more without May and will be lucky to finish a poor third. All this disarray will result in a comfortable Tory win.
    11 03 28 M.Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    This has long been held by the MacKay family as well as this has traditionally been a Conservative stronghold. While MacKay likely won't crack the 50% mark, I cannot see him losing this barring some major collapse.
    11 03 27 Tony Ducey
    76.11.85.66
    Peter Mackay is sure to be given another senior role in the Conservative government if they are re-elected. No way does he lose an election no matter what is happening provincially.
    10 11 01 Buck
    140.184.131.197
    While the election might be months away, it is increasingly clear that the only way that McKay loses is if the NDP vote collapses and goes almost entirely to the Liberals. The current unpopularity of the provincial NDP government will make it difficult for the NDP candidate to get traction.
    10 08 09 Mad Caper
    99.192.19.47
    IF Alexis MacDonald returns to run for the N.D.P. in this seat Peter will be in for the fight of his Political life. The departure of Liz May and the fact that the Liberals will run a Candidate this election will make every vote for every party very important although it appears that the Liberal vote base has eroded to the N.D.P. in the past few elections. The Greens will not be a factor in this election so with a half decent liberal candidate to take back some of the vote that went to Peter instead of May the last time around combined with the return of MacDonald for the N.D.P. and the Strong Provincial Base and you may see MacDonald pull this off.
    10 04 30 pathrik
    142.177.225.171
    Contrary to conventional wisdom this riding is not simply a shoo-in for the Tories. Peter Mackay is not nearly as universally loved in Nova Scotia as the media often likes to present. There is a lot of anti-tory support in this riding due to a large student population at Saint FX and also a lot of union supporters. This explains why the riding has sometimes been closer than expected and why Elizabeth May saw an opening the last time. Based on a lot of people I talk to in the riding the Petes support has often been more about naked self interest, in terms of having a cabinet minister represent the riding, than unabashed love for him or his party. If the Tories slip in the next election, in any sort of way, this riding could turn. Especially if either the liberals or the ndp have a visible candidate with a pulse.
    09 12 22 Acadien
    204.50.205.242
    I wonder how Prevaricating Peter's performance over the Detainee scandal is playing on the home front? Another nail in the MacKay family coffin I'm thinking.
    09 10 30 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    This riding has been almost exclusively represented by the Mackay's since 1971 minus a year Brian Mulroney held it and the 93 election . so to suggest the ndp without a high profile and well known candidate is going to actually win it , to me sounds a little doubtful. that being said there's been some closer races here over the years but its always remained blue on election night. and lets also not forget there will be a liberal candidate here next election so the ndp is not going to be the only party running a candidate against Peter Mackay. but we don't know who else is going to be running here yet but i doubt the opposition parties are going to be able to find anyone of the same profile as the current mp. the provincial results do not have much to do with the federal race as the ridings in Nova Scotia aren't even the same and the political realities at provincial level much different than federal. like at provincial level voters knew there was going to be an ndp government but at federal level such a propect is simply not there so that makes for a much different race. the provincial ndp had the advantage of being able to campaign on electing a government member but that advantage goes to Mackay not the federal ndp during the federal vote here.
    09 10 25 MJ
    142.151.171.1
    While the NDP sweep of 4 out of 5 provincial ridings within Central Nova back in June (with the fifth falling to the New Democrats in last week's byelection) might normally indicate that MacKay is in trouble, he continues to hold substantial popularity above his party label in the riding due to his high profile and stature and, lately, his ability to lavish tens of millions of dollars in pork spending on the riding. With the Tories currently polling quite well nationwide, I'd say his being defeated is very unlikely. If the Tories slip badly and if the NDP can come up with a very, very good candidate and if the Liberals can run a very poor candidate so as not to take too much away from the NDP, there is a chance of an NDP victory. Otherwise, I'd bet on MacKay.
    09 10 22 R.D.
    74.13.218.2
    Following their victory in the October 20 provincial byelection in Antigonish, the governing provincial NDP now holds all five provincial seats that make up the federal riding of Central Nova. The same situation also holds true in South Shore-St. Margaret's. Elizabeth May distorted the results here last time, but with her gone, I think the NDP will return to its previous position as the leading challenger to McKay. And this time, I think the strong provincial shift leftward will put the NDP over the top.
    09 10 21 David Y.
    24.224.214.201
    With the NDP victory in Tuesday's Antigonish provincial by-election, the NDP now holds all five provincial seats that make up the federal riding of Central Nova.
    More proof that ages-old voting patterns have been shattered, and that the NDP is capable of taking this seat.
    NDP pick-up!
    09 09 26 brent Thorkelson
    89.27.101.80
    Im surprised this does not get more media attention because Harpers second in command himself could be in real trouble here - as long as the grits and Greens cooperate and run poor noname candidates to stay out of the way and make it a clear 2 way battle. Its still more than 50/50 that Mckay still wins but he should be reading the words ‘objects may seem closer than they appear’ right now. TCTC...
    09 09 24 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    204.187.16.113
    Phoenix hit the nail on the head. The NDP should not be discounted but MacKay is just way too well know in this PC-leaning riding. NDP will have a good showing, enough to keep doubt in everyone's mind for subsequent electionprediction-go-rounds.
    09 09 16 Phoenix
    99.251.230.35
    While I wouldn't disagree with the notion that the NDP could - possibly - win this riding, the flurry of contributors predicting the certain doom of Peter MacKay seem to be jumping the gun. Much of the basis for these predictions seems to lie within the NDP's recent provincial election success; let's not forget, however, that Rodney MacDonald's provincial PCs were almost every bit as unpopular in the fall of 2008 (during the last federal election) as they were when the NDP defeated them this past spring. I doubt that the federal NDP will get a particularly notable bounce on the coattails of their provincial cousins. Furthermore, the NDP's 2006 candidate was, by most accounts, a very strong candidate - certainly moreso than her 2008 successor - and for the NDP to be serious contenders here, they'll have to field an equally-impressive candidate. Short of an NDP star running here, there's really no reason to predict a party switch: national poll numbers are roughly where they were in the last election, and the mini-scandal around MacKay's failure to resign from the boards of private companies hasn't caused that much of a stir. Plus, he's one of the highest-profile ministers in cabinet. I can say with relative confidence that MacKay will be re-elected, but an NDP victory isn't implausible if (and ONLY if) the Tories really start to tank. As of right now, though, that isn't happening.
    09 09 08 Observer
    89.180.225.193
    Indeed, I think a high profile NDP candidate can defeat Peter McKay. The NDP provincial government is improving the party's image and credibility all over Atlantic Canada. Recently, a poll showed the provincial NB NDP at a record 22% in New Brunswick. If the NS NDP provincial government maintains its current popularity, we can expect a lot of NDP pick up seats in NS, and this one will be one of the first to fall.
    09 09 06 Acadien
    70.29.83.240
    I hope Peter remembers how to campaign. His memory seems a little faulty lately. You know how it is. So many directorships and Corporate vice-presidencies to keep track of and all that. Glad he cleared it all up and paid that hefty $200.00 fine though.
    Voting patterns were shattered provincially in Nova scotia this year. There will be significant spill over federally, though by no means 100%. Will it be enough to unseat Peter? Quien Sabe amigos, but if it is it will be to the benefit of the Dippers.
    60% chance of an NDP take IMO.
    09 09 05 David Y.
    24.215.109.165
    When you look at the voting patterns of the 2008 federal election to the 2009 provincial election on June 9th, you can plainly see that this is no longer a safe Conservative seat:
    2008 2009
    PC 18240 11457
    NDP 7659 17919
    LIB - 5844
    GR 12620 686
    The Green vote went almost exclusively to the NDP, showing that Elizabeth May had no residual effect after her 2008 candidacy there.
    Plus, the Dexter government in Nova Scotia has actually shown an increase in public support since the 2009 election.
    The 2009 Nova Scotia election showed how the voters were prepared to break with generations of tradition.
    Definitely a possible NDP pick-up.
    09 09 06 Acadien
    70.29.83.240
    I hope Peter remembers how to campaign. His memory seems a little faulty lately. You know how it is. So many directorships and Corporate vice-presidencies to keep track of and all that. Glad he cleared it all up and paid that hefty $200.00 fine though.
    Voting patterns were shattered provincially in Nova Scotia this year. There will be significant spill over federally, though by no means 100%. Will it be enough to unseat Peter? Quien Sabe amigos, but if it is it will be to the benefit of the Dippers.
    60% chance of an NDP take IMO.
    09 09 05 David Y.
    24.215.109.165
    When you look at the voting patterns of the 2008 federal election to the 2009 provincial election on June 9th, you can plainly see that this is no longer a safe Conservative seat:
    2008 2009
    PC 18240 11457
    NDP 7659 17919
    LIB - 5844
    GR 12620 686
    The Green vote went almost exclusively to the NDP, showing that Elizabeth May had no residual effect after her 2008 candidacy there.
    Plus, the Dexter government in Nova Scotia has actually shown an increase in public support since the 2009 election.
    The 2009 Nova Scotia election showed how the voters were prepared to break with generations of tradition.
    Definitely a possible NDP pick-up.
    09 09 02 pollwerker
    64.228.222.170
    Interesting to watch. Yes, Peter Mackay is a popular sitting member, but so where his provincial counterparts. The NS-NDP did win the plurality of votes in this federal riding. Discounting the special circumstances of the last election, Mackay's shrinking numbers 6000 in '04, down to 3000 in '06 are nothing to be complacent about.
    09 09 01 Nick J Boragina
    74.14.107.105
    I'm actually pretty convinced, at this time, that the NDP will be able to take this riding. They had very strong showings in the past here, and the recent provincial election shows they can indeed win in the area. MacKay, likely feels he is safe, and will go it easy. The Tories are more likely to focus their money elsewhere, while the NDP can slip into a lead un-noticed. If the NDP does not take it, it will be, at least, a real battle.
    09 08 25 Keen Eye
    24.222.12.42
    Peter will hold this one. With Elizabeth May not rupturing for another run, and the Liberals still hurting from not having a candidate in 2008, Peter should hold his seat, but watch for a strong second place finish from the NDP.
    09 08 24 Observer
    89.180.69.237
    Peter McKay has a strong name recognition. In most ridings, electors don't dump their incumbent MP's without any reasonable motivation, and Central Nova is no exception. I think this is done for the Conservatives.
    09 08 23 Haligonian Political Junkie
    142.167.174.107
    I wouldn't quite call Central Nova for the Conservatives yet. While Peter MacKay certainly has the upper hand here, both as an incumbent and a Cabinet Minister, I would be surprised if the NDP does not make a spirited effort in this riding. The departure of Elizabeth May as a candidate actually makes Central Nova a more competitive and interesting race, as the voting habits in the riding will revert more closely to the 2004 and 2006 figures. One must remember that the NDP in 2006 lost by a smaller margin than May did in 2008 (7.8% for the NDP in 2006 vs. 14.4% for the Greens in 2008). The local Greens will not be able to come close to posting the same result as May did, and their vote will most certainly settle down to the province-wide norm. The Liberals, from what I hear, are in no position to seriously contest Central Nova either. That will make the NDP the default anti-Tory choice in Central Nova. The provincial NDP own four out of the five provincial ridings that more or less fit into Central Nova, which should help, or at least not hurt (though the rather moderate NS NDP is not exactly the ideological twin of the federal NDP, making a straight provincial-federal crossover of voter support unlikely). Of course, a lot will depend upon who the NDP field as a candidate, but they will certainly find someone with some strength. In conclusion, I call this one as too close right now. The Conservatives have the edge, but the NDP have the potential to present an upsetting challenge.
    09 08 22 David Campbell
    99.192.65.234
    With Elizabeth May declaring her intention to run in Saanich-Gulf Islands, this riding should remain the safe Tory seat that it usually is
    11 04 28 Michael-Toronto
    206.47.245.252
    If you look at the numbers posted today on threehundredeight it appears that Peter Mckay will be force to enter retirement on Monday night. I believe this is the time the NDP will WIN!
    11 04 28 Ontario Dipper
    70.30.27.182
    The Orange Crush, and Jack the Giant Killer are in command in Central Nova. The NDP surge is clearly in effect throughout Atlantic Canada, and I expect several NS ridings, both Liberal and Conservative to turn to the NDP on May 2nd, and Central Nova is prime.
    11 04 28 mad caper
    99.192.31.177
    With the poll in threehundredeight.com showing Peter MacKay trailing his N.D.P. challenger for the first time in the election,this may be an upset in the making.David Parker is a quality candidate who has the benifit of the hugh momentum shift in support for the N.D.P.NATION WIDE.This shift in support may be just what is needed to end the MacKay dynasty in Central Nova.
    11 04 28 pathrik
    142.239.254.19
    The 'Pete' is trouble if the tide shifts from the Tories in the coming days towards the NDP.
    His usefulness in Ottawa diminishes if his government looks to be losing power.



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