Prediction Changed
10:38 AM 28/03/2007

Election Prediction Project
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Lethbridge
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Christian Heritage
Capp, Geoffrey
Conservative
Casson, Rick
Liberal
Cormican, Michael Joseph
New Democratic
Sandilands, Mark
Green
Swagar, Amanda

Incumbent:
Rick Casson

2006 Result:
Rick Casson **
35061
Melanee Thomas
7135
Michael Cormican
5859
Andrea Sheridan
1846
Marc Slingerland
1458
Howard Forsyth
735

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 02 19 A.S.
99.233.96.153
It's worth noting what happened in Ken Nicol's absence; the NDP's Melanee Thomas scored a surprisingly peppy and perhaps unforeseen 13.7% second-place result--impressive, at least, for this particular geography. Hey, NDP moral victories wherever you can find them...
08 01 13 R.O.
209.91.149.127
Long time mp Rick Casson proved his electabilty by beating one of the strongest liberal contenders ever ran in rural alberta , former mla and alberta liberal leader Ken Nicol. in next election liberals are running Michael Cormican again who came in 3rd last election and was beat by ndp candidate. but agree this riding has urban part to it as it includes city of lethbridge but its still alberta .
07 09 29 Nick J Boragina
99.233.85.62
The former Alberta Liberal provincial leader ran here back in 2004. He was smashed. Not even close. Add to that a history of voting right-wing (the provincial riding of the Alberta Alliance leader is within this federal riding) and you get a CPC win.
07 09 20 binriso
156.34.212.190
Even with star candidate and longtime MLA candidate Ken Nicol, the Liberals could not get above 25% here in 2004, although he brought it to a respectable 40 point margin(!). Expect another big Rick Casson win about 50% of everyone else and close to 70% for himself. The Christian Heritage party always seems to do decently well here too, for being a fringe party.
07 04 01 GM
24.109.184.62
Ancastarian, why do you refer to places like Lethbridge and Red Deer as rural ridings? These cities might not be Toronto, but they're growing at immense speed - referring to this as a rural riding is like referring to Barrie as a rural riding. (or Regina or Saskatoon for that matter)
I do agree with your prediction though as Casson should win by over 30,000 votes and Bob Mills in Red Deer will win by 35,000.
07 03 25 Ancastarian
24.226.61.228
A rural Alberta riding - guaranteed slam-dunk for the Conservatives.



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