Update:
4:04 PM 25/12/2005

Prediction Changed
1:03 AM 04/05/2005
Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Nanaimo-Cowichan
Federal Election - 2006



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
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NDP/NPD
Jean Crowder
Marxist-Leninist
Jack East
Green Party/Parti Vert
Harold Henn
Liberal/libéral
Brian Scott
Conservatives/Conservateurs
Norm Sowden
Canadian Action
Jeff Warr

Incumbent:
Jean Crowder

2004 Result:
Jean Crowder
25243
Dave Quist
18928
Lloyd Macilquham
9257
Harold Henn
3822
Jeffrey Ian Warr
270
IND
Brunie Brunie
229

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page




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24 12 05 Aric H
Jean Crowder won here last year when she wasn't the incumbent. Now she is the incumbent plus she has had more media exposure since that time by sometimes standing next to Jack Layton on the news in her role as NDP Health Critic.
27 11 05 Bear and Ape
If the NDP could take it in 2004 with a 6000 vote plurality, then they will take it again, especially when things are looking as good for them as they appear to be now.
18 05 05 Christian Socialism
Currently the *only* safe seat on the Island, thanks to a large blue collar unionised workforce, a long Dipper tradition and an aggressive NDP campaign last year which saw Crowder win by a not inconsiderable amount; the fact that the BC NDP picked up both provincial seats in the riding last night adds the icing on the cake. Maybe a little cherry on the top as well.
09 05 05 hatman
The NDP will keep this easily. Vancouver Island is an NDP stronghold, in most areas, and this is no exception. While the dippers will have trouble winning the neighbouring Nanaimo-Alberni riding, this one will be easy. Firstly, they already hold the riding! Secondly, the NDP is at about the same if not better in the polls than in 2004, and so they should keep all the ridings they won in 2004, and pick up a few more. This one will be one of them. Expect a few Liberal votes to come to the NDP, but not many.
07 05 05 Aric H
I would say that since Jean Crowder of the NDP won this seat by about 6,000-7,000 votes last year and because she has maintained her visibility in Ottawa by speaking on Parliamentary Committees and by being interviewed on the CPAC political shows, that she should retain this seat unless something changes for the NDP in BC.
07 05 05 Nick Boragina
this is the only riding on the island, at this point in time, that's declared, the rest are TCTC. Rightfully so, the tories have been polling down in BC since the election, despite gomery. Then again, in 1997, reform was polling down, and reform members claimed that the numbers would jump in time for the election, and they did. in 2000 the alliance did the same, their members claimed the same, the result was the same. We saw a threepeat in 2004 with the tories. This makes it hard to predict BC results, as the party has a tradition of last minute jumps in the polls just before an election. Despite that, I think the NDP's margin here is large enough to make up for any liberal fall and tory gain. This should be a hold. Remember too that incumbents can capture anywhere from 100 to 1000 votes just for being the sitting MP, this will only help expand the margin.
02 05 05 Miles Lunn
Even though the Reform/Alliance won this riding in the 90s, that was more a protest vote than genuine support for their right wing policies. This is a traditional NDP stronghold so Jean Crowder will be re-elected. The Provincial NDP should also regain both Nanaimo and Cowichan-Ladysmith unless all federal liberals and federal conservatives vote liberal provincially which is unlikely.



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