ab-Calgary North Centre

Election Prediction Project
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Calgary North Centre
Calgary-Centre-Nord
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
10:43 PM 6/22/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
12:59 AM 17/03/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

Candidates/candidats:
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Marxist-Leninist:
Margaret Askin

N.D.P./N.P.D.:
John Chan

Independent:
Michael Falconar

Green Party/Parti Vert:
Mark MacGillivray

Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Cathy McClusky

Conservatives/Conservateurs:
Jim Prentice

Population 2001
populations 117,252

Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs 96167

Incumbents/Les députés:

Calgary Centre (40.5%)
Rt. Hon Joe Clark

Calgary Northeast (22.3%)
Art Hanger

Calgary-Nose Hill (37.1%)
Diane Ablonczy

2000 Result/Résultats:

Redistributed

27,780 50.57%

15,601 28.40%

7,852 14.29%

2,398 4.37%

OTHERS 1,301 2.37%

Calgary Centre
(104/263 polls, 38991/100814 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

2057
8878
737
10489
OTHER 720

Calgary Northeast
(61/212 polls, 21451/89735 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

2069
6573
579
1764
OTHER 0

Calgary-Nose Hill
(102/229 polls, 35725/100344 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

3726
12329
1082
3348
OTHER 581

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	20/06/04	JT Email: [hidden]
A high-profile Conservative candidate losing to the Liberals in Calgary?Especially in a riding where they finished third with only 15% of the vote in 2000. Nope, can't see it happening. The only thing Jim Prentice needs to concern himself with is how high his vote count will be.
	08/06/04	Steve Email:
The Liberals are lucky to be running against Jim Prentice. This opens the doors to the first Liberal victory in Calgary in over 30 years. Prentice wasn't even able to beat an NDP candidate in the provincial election in 1988 (even though he was running as a provincial Tory!!!). He lost the PC leadership race and backed out of the Conservative leadership race. He claims not to be a career politician but it's only because he has a history of losing. Good luck Jim, maybe you'll get one someday.
	06/06/04	C. Hubley Email: [hidden]
Easy Conservative win. It showed integrity for Joe to endorse Jim, since Joe's position is to endorse what he thinks is the best candidate in each riding regardless of party (and on that basis has endorsed both Liberals and NDPers in other ridings, though Joe is yet to endorse a Green anywhere). It also showed integrity for Jim to refuse Joe's endorsement, on the obvious grounds that Jim considers the new party to be the old party and Joe to be unfaithful. Nonetheless, Joe's endorsement means something, and the votes will shift to Jim rather than going off to the RedToryish federal Greens. Even without 100% of the shift, though, Jim Prentice still wins this riding.
	24/05/04	RetroRyan Email:
This riding will be won by the Conservative candidate Jim Prentice, who is a little more moderate than some other Conservative candidates in Alberta (and thus a good fit for this riding). The only question is how big the win will be. If Jim gets all of the CA votes from last time plus only 25% of Joe Clark's old vote, then Jim should be in a comfortable position on election night. The Liberals may have to concentrate on Calgary South Centre in order to steal one in Calgary (though I doubt even that will happen).
	19/05/04	Dann Alexander Email: dann77@shaw.ca
Jim Prentice running here. He has had tremendous publicity since his run at the PC top job. After Joe the jerk publicily denounced Stephen Harper, Jim stepped up and said he would not accept Joe's support for him. I have heard alot of people tell me they were embarassed to admit they voted for Joe and are happy to vote for Jim.
	12/05/04	E. Andrew Washburn Email: [hidden]
I think all Conservative leadership candidates will win their ridings. Jim Prentice is no exception, even though he dropped out. I think he is what the Conservatives are looking for in a star candidate. Mr. Prentice would win in most ridings in Canada. On top of that Calgary is the most conservative city in the country, so I can't see anyone else doing anything here.
	03/05/04	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Though there's some "with friends like these" questioning from the Prentice end, Joe Clark's supporting Prentice. And were the right still disunited, Jim Prentice still might have ended up the only Alberta PCer (or the leader of a peppy handful, a la Charest in Quebec in '97). In fact, he probably would be by now, had Stephen Harper not run in the CSW byelection to replace Preston Manning...
	17/03/04	SB Email:
Obviously, the Conservative party is extremely popular in Alberta, polling at over 60%. Jim Prentice gained himself a national profile through his run for the PC leadership. He will be able to win this seat quite handily under the Tory banner.
	16/03/04	Nick Boragina Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Jim Prentice has been nominated here to run as a Conservative. That's justificaiton enough in my mind.
	16/03/04	JGH Email: [hidden]
This is Jim Prentice's riding, and he will win easily. He has a tremendous organization in place and is a potential future leader of the Conservatives. I look forward to Prentice increasing the "sane" quotient in the Conservative caucus.
	15/03/04	V.D. Email: bench_breaker@hotmail.com
I think Jim Prentice is a good candidate (possible future leadership candidate?) he'll be able to keep the former alliance vote and a lot of the old PC vote...

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