on-Sault Ste.Marie

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Sault Ste.Marie
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
8:52 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
11:30 AM 6/27/2004

Constituency Profile
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Candidates/candidats:
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Green Party/Parti Vert:
Julie Emmerson

N.D.P./N.P.D.:
Tony Martin

Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Carmen Provenzano

Conservatives/Conservateurs:
Cameron Ross

Marxist-Leninist:
Mike Taffarel

Population 2001
populations 88,419

Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs 67958

Incumbents/Les députés:

Algoma-Manitoulin (14.2%)
Brent St. Denis

Sault Ste. Marie (85.8%)
Carmen Provenzano

2000 Result/Résultats:

Redistributed

20,510 48.19%

10,211 23.99%

9,287 21.82%

1,522 3.58%

OTHERS 1,030 2.42%

Algoma-Manitoulin
(37/208 polls, 9668/53535 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

1971
2376
1138
390
OTHER 139

Sault Ste. Marie
(174/174 polls, 58290/58290 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

18539
6911
9073
1132
OTHER 891

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	24/06/04	JWildman Email: [hidden]
Close race between Liberal backbench incumbent and former NDP MPP. Along with anger felt towards the national Liberals, the local MP has done little for the riding for the past 10 years that would allow him to benefit from personal popularity despite his Party's troubles. Former NDP MPP Tony Martin is seen as a hard working constituency member with a reputation for honesty and integrity. The surrounding rural areas to the east and north have been added to this riding but the Liberal incumbent has spent no time there while Mr. Martin has been holding numerous meetings and speaking to local groups. The NDP generally does well in these rural areas. The Conservative candidate is working hard and will do ok in the rural areas as well but is not as close to the two front runners overall. The Liberals tactic of trying to scare people into voting for them to prevent the Conservatives from coming in is being used but NDP support is holding with Leader Jack Layton coming in for the second time near the end of the campaign. Voter turnout will be low though with many people disgusted because of the sponsorship scandal. Close race but slight edge to NDP candidate Tony Martin.
	23/06/04	MKT Email: [hidden]
I have to change my vote. I never imagined the Conservatives and Cameron Ross would run such a strong campaign and that the momentum would shift so suddenly. This is now a tight three-way race. To see Stephen Harper visiting the Soo in the last week of the campaign shows just how important this riding is to the party and how winnable they think it is.
	18/06/04	JustdaFax Email:
I think the voters of SSM are a bit more sophisticated than Dave gives them credit for. Despite what some people might think, the Soo isn't some hyper-masculine, Rough 'n Tumble, Out-Post. The voters there have elected Cabinet Ministers John Rhodes, James Kelleher, and, Ron Irwin. They have elected academics like Dr. Karl Morin-Strom, and, yes, social activists like Tony Martin. I'm not sure where the "hard core conservative Algoma hinterland" is, because the Algoma I know has elected either Liberals or New Democrats for almost thirty years. As for 2251 being "real men", well, I'm not sure what that means either, but I do know that they are generally older men . . . old men who are concerned about health care in a community that is lacking doctors . . . old men who had the fright of their lives when their pension plan was found to have a huge unfunded liability . . . old men whose company(ies) has been through more ups and down than a rollercoaster and who might not be all that enamoured with Harper's industrial policy, or lack thereof. And lastly, unless things have changed, I think the Soo is still about half female. None of this is to say that the Conservative won't do well, but that has more to do with provincial polling numbers and Dalton McGuinty than some sort of local Tarzan complex. Anyway, the better the Conservative does, the more likely it is that Martin will take it.
	15/06/04	Dave Email:
The fact that Tony and Carmen are well known will hurt them. Tony was massively rejected by the electorate in the Fall in favour of a government MPP. Carmen is generally seen is politically impotent (those back benches get chilly) and intellectually challenged. 17% of this riding is now hard core conservative Algoma hinterland. With the Conservative Party ahead in the polls, Saulites are flocking to Ross. There is no question that in sissy mainstream Canadian culture, a career military officer frightens people, but Saulties are rugged individuals and will be attracted to him. Tony will not win behind a leader like Layton. His prissy, pretty-boy, camera-loving femininity will not play well with the traditional Sault Ste. Marie NDP voters in the Steelworkers union. Those fellas are real men; we ain't sure about Layton. It will be a tight race either way, but in the end, paint the Sault Tory blue.
	10/06/04	Jeff Email: [hidden]
The people of Sault Ste. Marie know the 2 major candidates very well. Provenzano has been the MP for 7 years, and Tony Martin was the MPP for 13 years. Provenzano has delivered over $200 million of federal government investment in the riding over the last 7 years. No one can actually come up with anything that Tony has done except whine to the media when he doesn't get his way. In the meantime, the Sault has received the only federal funding for an arena in Ontario, and the single largest public works project in Ontario - $40 million for a new sewage treatment plant. Not to mention, the $50 million loan guarantees for the Steel Plant. No doubt about it, Carmen has this one sewn up.
	06/06/04	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
The provincial loss was a Martin vs Orazietti matter--otherwise, other NDPers around the province would have suffered the same kind of setback. In fact, the Soo's been having a net swing away from the NDP in recent years--perhaps in light of Algoma Steel's travails, it's restlessness at being politically marginalized? But among Martins, if the swing away from Paul is felt in the Soo, then Tony's the logical alternative at hand. (Even with the addition of rural parts, it's too urban and not hinterland enough for the Tories.) However, even with Layton and all that, Tony Martin may not be as "inevitable" as another 2003 defeatee, Tory Al McDonald in Nipissing...
	05/06/04	JT Email: [hidden]
I was shocked when Martin lost this seat last year in the provincal election considering he was very popular in the area. However, he is running against another no-name LIberal MP. In other words an NDP pick up.
	04/06/04	David C Email: [hidden]
Three way split in this town always favors the NDP.
	03/06/04	Dave Email:
The Conservative Party has run a strong candidate with well respected military experience. Cameron Ross has an excellent shot given the seemingly well organized campaign and surging support for Harper in Ontario.
	28/05/04	Email: tojersey@yahoo.ca
A strong candidate (who lost the provincial seat for reasons which had more to do with McGuinty vs. Hampton than Martin vs. Orazietti) + a traditionally Dipper seat + a stronger NDP than we've seen federally in a while = NDP pickup, and a new yet familiar job for Martin.
	26/04/04	Watt Tyler Email: [hidden]
Tony Martin remains a very popular figure in the area, despite losing in the Liberal tidal wave last fall. His personal standing will combine with a strong NDP voting tradition and local organization, fallout from the brutal provincial budget looming in Ontario, and a general anti-Liberal mood in the country to give this seat to the NDP Martin.
	24/03/04	MKT Email: [hidden]
I think after turfing Martin for David Orazietti in the Provincial election, the people of Sault Ste Marie have realized the mistake they have made. Tony Martin has always been a vocal advocate on social issues, something that people in this depressed steel town can really latch on to. Provenzano has been a lacklustre MP at best and will undoubtedly lose votes in this election. If a strong Conservative candidate, like Ken Walker, wins the nomination that will siphon votes off votes for Provenzano--especially in light of the recent scandals.
	20/03/04	Craig Email:
After the shocking defeat in the provincial election, I don't think Tony Martin has recovered enough yet to get a seat on Parliament Hill. The Liberals are sure going to attack him on that and the voters will likely do just enough to get Provenzano back in office. He should make it interesting though. Predicted results: Liberal 45%, NDP 37%, Conservative 14%, others 4%.
	17/03/04	Lucinda Davies Email: [hidden]
This is the NDP's best chance for a pickup in northern Ontario and there is no doubt that they are going to pour resources and energy into this battle. Tony Martin remains a very popular local figure despite his loss in the Liberal sweep in the provincial elections, and if Layton runs a strong national campaign, then Martin's personal standing and the region's strong NDP roots, will pay off any investment that the party puts into the race here.
	17/03/04	Bear and Ape Email: Thebigeape2000@hotmail.com
With the former NDP MPP running in the Soo this time spells trouble for the Liberals. Unless the NDP's fortunes change during the campaign, this will be one of their gains in Ontario.
	15/03/04	S Meades Email: [hidden]
This is one of the NDP's top target ridings. It had one of the best results federally in 2000, and with former MPP Tony Martin running, the sponsorship scandal, Liberal Party in-fighting, and a riding that expands to include very strong NDP areas, this should be one of 5-15 NDP pickups in Ontario.
	27/02/04	Patrick Webber Email:
Former Ontario NDP MPP Tony Martin should be able to swing this riding back to its' New Democrat roots. It will be a bit of a battle against the Liberal incumbent, but the 18%-22% that the NDP is polling in Ontario is enough to assist Martin's efforts. NDP gain.

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