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Manicouagan
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
6:44 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
6:50 PM 14/03/2004



Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

Candidates/candidats:
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(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Bloc Québécois:
Gérard Asselin
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Anthony Detroio
N.D.P./N.P.D.:
Pierre Ducasse
Conservatives/Conservateurs:
Pierre Paradis
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Les Parsons

Population 2001
populations
84,872
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs
64995

Incumbents/Les députés:
Charlevoix (38.8%)
Gérard Asselin
Manicouagan (61.2%)
Ghislain Fournier

2000 Result/Résultats:
Redistributed
20,390 58.20%
10,468 29.88%
2,196 6.27%
1,403 4.00%
OTHERS
577 1.65%

Charlevoix
(76/194 polls, 25190/58458 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results
2855
8962
1021
198
590
OTHER
0

Manicouagan
(133/135 polls, 39805/39805 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results
7613
11428
1175
379
813
OTHER
0



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24/06/04 J.W. Bowman
Email: mr_grape@juno.com
Those predicting that the Bloc will hold this seat forget that Ducasse himself isn't a Federalist (as is the case with many who support the NDP in Quebec). Ducasse will take away votes from both Liberals and the BQ... enough for him to win.
Il n'est pas un "inconnu" comme il l'était. Même si des gens n'ont pas regardé le congrès NPD, ils connaissent Pierre maintenant.
Layton himself has come to Sept-Iles to support Ducasse. If ever the NDP is going to break through in Quebec, this is it.
24/06/04 The political advisor
Email: [hidden]
Au final, je donne Ducasse à l'arrachée. Ce ne sera pas facile, mais il mène une campagne intéressante et intelligente. Le "Petit gars de Sept-Iles" devrait pouvoir compter sur sa présence permanente à Sept-Iles depuis 7 mois, en campagne continue. Il a clairement démontré que Manicouagan était sa priorité.
10/06/04 Philippe Bélanger
Email: [hidden]
Pierre fait une campagne intéresante et soutenue qui lui vaut plusieurs appuis importants.
Les gens voient de plus en plus en lui un porte-parole de premier ordre pour la Côte-Nord et le meilleur candidat à cette élection. La lutte sera intéressante!
25/05/04 Mark Cauchon
Email: [hidden]
Le Bloc va gagner dans Manicouagan car ce comté est un château fort souverainiste. Les annonces de Paul Martin sur l'assurance-emploi et ses mythes concernant le Québec ne sont en fait que de la poudre aux yeux pour faire taire les mécontents et pour se sauver la face dans le dossier du scandale des commadites (Anthony Detroio aurait du y refléchir 2 fois avant de se lancer en politique fédérale). Ceux qui pensent que le NPD va faire une percée dans Manicouagan prennent leurs désirs pour des réalités. Victoire du Bloc le 28 juin prochain!!!
25/05/04 Kim Leclerc
Email: [hidden]
Le fait que M.Ducasse est été candidat à la direction du NPD, la solide équipe du NPD dans le comté, le dernier sondage provincial qui donne 15% de voie aux NPD soit 7% de plus que la dernière fois, le fait que cette fois-ci le parti libéral n'a aucune chance et le fait que le NPD peut recceuillir du vote fédéraliste et souvrainiste ajouter au que cette région à un taux de syndicalisation très élevé et que le NPD soit le choix des syndicats. Tout ceci me laisse penser que le NPD auras un député au Québec en la personne de M.Ducasse
25/05/04 homme
Email: [hidden]
Pour avoir vécu 17 ans dans cette circonscription, je prévois une victoire facile du Bloc, le 28 Juin prochain, même si M. Asselin n'est pas le député le plus brillant de la chambre des communes. Je prédis BLOC 60% PLC 25% PC 12% NPD 3%. Si ce n'était pas le maire de Port-Cartier qui se porterait candidat pour le Libéraux, j'aurais donné l'avance au PC sur le PLC. M. Paradis a été très impliquer au près des chômeurs et dans la politique municipale à Baie-Comeau. Sans Tony, BLOC 60% PC 25% PLC 12% NPD 3%. Ducasse n'a aucune chance!
23/05/04 Stéphane Gaudet
Email: [hidden]
Ceux qui pensent que le NPD a des chances de remporter des sièges au Québec prennent leur désirs pour des réalités. En anglais, on appelle ça du WISHFUL THINKING... Manicouagan, c'est la très souverainiste Côte-Nord, une région de syndiqués qui vote PQ depuis 1976. Avec 58,2% des voix pour le Bloc contre 29,9% aux libéraux en 2000, il faudrait des transferts de voix "hénaurmes" pour espérer que ce comté change de couleur. Il n'y a pas de lutte à trois ici, Pierre Ducasse n'est connu qu'à l'intérieur des rangs du NPD; dans le comté, c'est un illustre inconnu. Il n'y a même pas de lutte à deux !!! Soyons sérieux: victoire bloquiste absolument certaine le 28 juin.
23/05/04 NDP Newbie
Email: [hidden]
I guess I was too quick to count out M. Ducasse:
A May 21 poll in La Presse -- perhaps the most reliable of the recent polls due to its large sample of Quebecois -- puts the NDP at 15% in Quebec.
If the numbers stay that way, the NDP will have a real shot in a few Quebec ridings, and this would probably be one of them.
Still leaning towards Bloc, but this is getting a lot more interesting.
29/04/04 Voice of the Common Man
Email: [hidden]
In a competitive election -- which is shaping up in Quebec, recent polls notwithstanding -- the old riding of Manicouagan could have been interesting. The solidly Liberal vote in the Lower North Shore gave the seat an automatic 10% of bye to the Liberals. Since 1993 it has been swamped by heavy BQ votes, esp. in the union mining towns of Fermont, Port-Cartier, 7I and HSP... but there were surprisingly strong Grit showings in 1997 (by its former Trudeau-era MP) and in 2000 (by an LNS resident)
However, redistribution changes everything. Adding Baie-Comeau back into the riding (as it was when Mulroney held it from 84 to 88) tilts the playing field solidly back towards the BQ.
The Liberal candidate being the Mayor of Port Cartier may help a bit... there are disaffected BQ voters in Greater 7I pissed off at the nomination result, and Port Cartier is intimately linked with Fermont. Detroio may do better than Labadie did in 2000, but unless there's a real keep-the-Conservatives-out swing strategic Liberal vote across franco-Quebec (and perhaps on the usually non-voting Indian reserves), keep this one in the BQ camp.
26/04/04 sam
Email: samuel_541@hotmail.com
Ici très chaude lutte NPD très organiséeet le BLOC as une très forte avance ici c'est un compté NPD le seul au quebec. 44% pour le NPD et 41% pour le bloc du vote !
24/04/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
I hate to burst any bubbles out there but the NDP hasn't got a remote chance of winning a seat in Quebec. They are a fringe party here and have only had 2 MP's represented here any they only lasted one term apiece. They will be lucky if they beat the Greens and Marijuana Party in this province.
24/04/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Well, despite what some may say, a Pierre Ducasse victory is far from the most preposterous NDP/NPD prediction I've read around here. In fact, relatively speaking, his chances are probably better than those of another erstwhile failed national leadership candidate from Quebec, the PC's Michael Fortier in Laval West in 2000. Also, maybe Ducasse got less than 4% in 1997, but if you parse the overall 1997 pays-de-Quebec NPD numbers a little, and take into account where he was running, you'll find that he actually *overperformed*--arguably an early warning of his heart-winning 2003 leadership convention performance. Throw in the maverick-voting possibilities behind Manicouagan's geographic isolation, and while it's farfetched to suggest that a windfall of Ducassistes is in the offing for Quebec, Ducasse himself certainly has a palpable "Mario Dumont of the left" aura of personal electability--especially if a well-oiled federal party machine's behind him as a sort of "spot star candidate" (comparable to some of those which have run in neighbouring Newfoundland/Labrador in recent years). I still think the odds are against Ducasse; but he's not at all to be sneered at; at least, we may be looking (and maybe not just here?) at the first earned-back NPD deposit since Phil Edmonston. But besides him, BQ's the obvious choice...
23/04/04 fULL nAME
Email:
Pierre Ducasse aura même pas 5%. Il arrivera bon quatrième. Les conservateur n,ont plus Brian . Leur chien est mort.Ce comté a bien été au provincial adéquiste mais Francois Corriveau n,est plus. Les syndicaliste sont majoritairement pq-bloc, anti charest, surtout avec les fermetures de Alcoa,. Non, ce comté restera aisément au Bloc. Pas de spéculations.
19/04/04 Pat
Email: escapemtl22@hotmail.com
Its not the first time Ducasse runs in this riding. he had less than 4% of the vote last time. The bloc quebecois got close to 60% of the votes last election....Ducasse is not well known and i dont believe he would do anything good for this riding. The ndp is not even sure to win 1 seat...even Layton is not sure to win ! Poor them...
14/04/04 Al
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
"Pour avoir les résultats que vous n'avez jamais eus, il faut faire ce que vous n'avez jamais fait"
As strange as this may (and indeed does) seem Ducasse *might*, just *might* have a chance to pull this one off, as Ghislain Fournier lost the nomination to Gérard Asselin... and the NDP are a lot stronger in Quebec than in 2000 (not much of an achievment though), and Ducasse reasonably well known (and this *is* his home after all).
Although a win for Ducasse would be (in my opinion) good for democracy (an MP elected in Quebec *not* because of the whole seperatist/federalist debate/row...), I'm not expecting him to do it, as the riding is a Seperatist stronghold.
However he *might*... which is why I'm witholding a prediction (for now at least).
13/04/04 J McLaren
Email:
It will be a close fight, but Pierre Ducasse has strong roots in the community, a high profile from his race for the NDP leadership, and substantial resources in terms of people and money. I believe he can win the riding and represent Manicouagan in Ottawa.
13/04/04 EP
Email: [hidden]
The fact that these NDP youth would waste their time to campaign in this hopeless riding when their party has the greatest issue with limited resources tells you how useless they actually are. Their leader is in a tough fight and they are thinking about busing to this far north riding to hang out with their pal Pierre! Until they get rid of the militant leftie extremists (who are often just as ignorant as the right wing frekos) and wishful hippies that waste the party's time and resources on stupid pet projects, they will always be a joke and little more.
12/04/04 C. Laberge
Email: [hidden]
Voir le Bloc se diviser comme il le fait dans la circonscription depuis les dernières semaines me fait croire plus réaliste que jamais une élection de Pierre Ducasse.
À mesure que les gens auront l'occasion de discuter avec lui des enjeux régionaux, je pense qu'ils se laisseront séduire et qu'il lui donneront sa chance de montrer que non seulement on peut " faire les choses autrement " dans une circonscription comme Manicouagan... mais qu'en plus, ça paiera sans doute davantage que les solutions adoptées par le passé.
Reste aussi à ce que les syndicats osent appuyer publiquement le NPD... ce qui serait normal il me semble dans un cas comme celui-ci.
10/04/04 D farmer
Email: [hidden]
Pierre made a real impression on the Youth of the Federal NDP during the leadership convention. Pierre represents everything the NDP wish to represent now and for our collective future. Look for bus loads of folk from all over to help out on this one. Look for the Federal campaign to substantially support this riding, not just because the NDP see's this as an opportunity in Quebec, but because Pierre would be an extremly valuable asset to any organization.
10/04/04 martin
Email: mdoiron79@hotmail.com
Je suis originaire de Sept-iles et ma famille y réside toujours, je peux vous assurer que le Bloc Quebecois remportera cette circonscription. Ducasse n'a aucune chance...et ce n'est pas vrai qu'il demeure dans le comté. Monsieur Ducasse demeure a Drummondville...à 8 heures de son comté... I used to live in Sept-Iles and my family still lives there. This riding will stay for the Bloc Quebecois even tought Ghislain Fournier is not too happy with the fact that he lost his nomination. **Its not a big lost for the Bloc anyways...* Ducasse is also not living in this riding, hes living in Drummondville, wich is 8 hours by car from Manicouagan...Bloc will win this seat !
10/04/04 V. Lavallee
Email: [hidden]
The Bloc was going way down in the polls before the Liberal sponcership scandel so much of the recent Bloc support tends to very soft. The performance of the Provincial Liberal Government has also upset the more moderate of Liberals who are slowly realizing that their party has abandoned them both Provincially and Federally. These moderate former Liberals are not apt to stay with the Bloc since they find some of their policies a bit extreme. There are also many Bloc supporters who are becoming more and more upset with the party's shift towards more Conservative (read Alliance-like) policies. These soon to be former Bloc supporters are definately looking for a new home in a party which more closely reflects their values. Pierre Ducasse does have a lot of work ahead of him, and it will be close, but I think that he just might sweak through.
10/04/04 A. Romaniuk
Email: [hidden]
Don't write off Ducasse. Quebeckers DID watch the convention - the Ducasse campaign workers couldn't keep up with the phone calls and e-mails following his speech on the morning before the vote - people from Quebec, many of them young, wanting to join....He also will benefit from previous exposure running here, and seven years worth of maturity. IF he and his campaign team can motivate the youth vote, IF he can get his message about the NPD and asymmetric federalism out there... yes, he CAN win Manicouagan.
10/04/04 Initial plus surname
Email:
M. Ducasse might just surprise everyone, because the tendency of the Bloc and Liberals not to take him seriously, and because he has done his homework diligently, appearing and speaking in every little community
09/04/04 François Picard
Email: picardfrancois@hotmail.com
Je crois aux chances Pierre Ducasse de l'emporter et de permettre au NPD de faire une percée au Québec. Sa campagne est déjà commencée et il profitera certainement de la bisbille au Bloc dans son comté.
09/04/04 WD
Email: [hidden]
Considering how Gérard Asselin took the nomination away from old trade unionist Ghislain Fournier, and considering how the Liberals are no threat here, surely Sept-Iles will give the local boy a chance.
09/04/04 David Black
Email: david.black@telus.net
I think Pierre has a very real chance of taking this election. While the NDP hasn't traditionally done well here, I think the profile Ducasse has brought to Quebec's issues in the federal political scene will make him the best choice for people in Manicouagan.
09/04/04 SGL
Email: [hidden]
This is a quirky riding that could shift its allegiance in order to support a prominent local son. The NDP will be committing significant resources here, as Jack Layton wants his Quebec lieutenant in the caucus. It won't be easy, but it can be won for the NDP.
20/03/04 Craig
Email:
A separatist stronghold, Ducasse made a bad choice in deciding to run here, although he should finish a distant second the Bloc should cruise to victory under any circumstances. The Conservatives and Liberals will not be factors here. Predicted results: Bloc 55%, NDP 19%, Liberal 14%, Conservative 10%, others 2%.
19/03/04 MJ
Email: ryan_593@hotmail.com
Pierre Ducasse can't win this. The riding is too separatist, too "conservative." I don't think many people in Quebec watched the NDP convention (who did?), so I really don't think Ducasse is the superstar he's seen to be in NDP circles. Bloc wins, Lib. second, Ducasse third.
17/03/04 EP
Email: [hidden]
I really dont understand what's all the big fuss about Ducasse. I met Pierre and he is a nice guy and all, but seriously this is politics! He is nobody outside of the circle of NDP hacks.
16/03/04 SB
Email:
Pierre Ducasse will likely run third or fourth in this riding. He ran before and came dead last. He didn't gain any exposure from running for the NDP leadership. 99.99% of Québeckers have no idea who the hell Pierre Ducasse is.
Sorry, this one's going BQ.
16/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
I think that despite Ducasse running for the NDP, that the Bloc will hold onto this seat. There is just too much to overcome for Ducasse to win. Federalist Liberals will vote for Ducasse, and I think he will finish either a strong and very close (to second place) third, or a weak second. One thing to remember is that this is riding has a history of voting for Nationalists. Ducasse would have done better to run elsewhere.
16/03/04 NDP Newbie
Email: [hidden]
Sadly, I have a feeling that the Bloc Québécois will hold this staunchly separatist riding that was also once home to Brian Mulroney.
The Conservatives and Lieberals are obviously non-factors here, but the NDP will make it close with a candidate as strong and charismatic as Pierre Ducasse. Separstist sentiment is just too strong here though.
Parmi tout ça, je suis optimistique pour le futur du NPD au Québec, et je donne une grosse "bonne chance" à M. Ducasse.
16/03/04 RWA
Email:
"Struggle" is one way to put it. This race will make Ducasse's attepmt to win the NDP leadership look easy.
27/02/04 Patrick Webber
Email:
It will be a struggle, but Pierre Ducasse will win this seat and thus secure a toehold for the NDP in Quebec. The exposure he gained during his run for the NDP leadership coupled with his constant presence in the riding will swing many Liberal and some Bloc votes over to the NDP camp.


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