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Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale
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Update/Mise à jour: 12:04 AM 6/23/2004 
Prediction Changed La prévision a changé 8:45 PM 23/03/2004 |
Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription
Candidates/candidats:
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(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
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Bloc Québécois: Raynald Blais | ||||||
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Conservatives/Conservateurs: Guy De Coste | ||||||
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Green Party/Parti Vert: Bob Eichenberger | ||||||
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Liberal Party/Parti libéral: Georges Farrah | ||||||
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N.D.P./N.P.D.: Philip Toone | ||||||
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Incumbents/Les députés: | |||||||
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Bonaventure-Gaspé-Îles-de-la-Madeleine-Pabok (82.9%) Hon. Georges Farrah | ||||||
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Matapédia-Matane (17.1%) Jean-Yves Roy | ||||||
2000 Result/Résultats:
| Redistributed | ||
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22,302 | 52.80% |
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17,981 | 42.57% |
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827 | 1.96% |
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741 | 1.75% |
| 388 | 0.92% | |
Bonaventure-Gaspé-Îles-de-la-Madeleine-Pabok (183/183 polls, 56049/56049 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 18777 | |
| 15320 | |
| 741 | |
| 592 | |
 | 0 | |
| 0 | ||
Matapédia-Matane (39/191 polls, 11530/55057 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 3525 | |
| 2661 | |
| 0 | |
| 235 | |
| 388 | |
| 0 | ||
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20/06/04 | Nick Boragina Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com | |
| This riding does not look very Liberal in these times. I couldent really see another Liberal victory with the party so moribund in the polls. Seat projections for the Bloc are still in the 60-65 seat range, this riding is not one of the Liberal's top 15. | |||
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20/06/04 | Marc Email: [hidden] | |
| Je suis presque sur que le BLOC va rentré dans cette circonscription. Les gens sont insatisfait de Georges Farrah, d'autant plus le scandale des commandites n'a pas aider au partit libéral, et 2e la gaspésie a toujours été fort souverainiste... (3 mandats que le PQ gagne, et au référendum la majorité était OUI) | |||
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25/05/04 | KL Email: [hidden] | |
| Le bon travail du député, le fait qu'il a réussie à obtenir envers et contre tout de modifications aux programmes de l'assurance emploie, l'expérience et le fait que le candidat soit habitué aux victoires et aux défaites à l'aracher et l'energie me permettre de croire à une victoire du PLC. On pourrais ajouter le fait que son adversaire soit l'ancien attaché politique du député bloquiste le moins populaire. | |||
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16/05/04 | Stéphane Gaudet Email: [hidden] | |
| Même si Georges Farrah a gagné sur la base de sa popularité personnelle en 2000 (tout comme les André Harvey, Guy St-Julien et Serge Marcil), il semble que celui-ci ait beaucoup de difficultés dans ce comté dont les travailleurs saisonniers ont fait les frais des politiques libérales sur l'assurance-chômage. Et les mesures annoncées la semaine dernière pour aider les libéraux dans l'Atlantique et en Gaspésie ont été accueillies avec cynisme par les principaux intéressés, ce qui n,est rien pour aider Monsieur Farrah. Je prédis donc une victoire bloquiste, mais à l'arraché. | |||
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26/03/04 | MM Email: [hidden] | |
| Georges Farrah acts like a barometer for the Liberals, provincially and federally. From what I read of Chantal Hébert in the Toronto Star, Farrah feels happy to campaign when Liberals are strong, and depressed when the Liberals' fortunes are down. In early-1998, when he was MNA for Îles-de-la-Madeleine, he seemed happy to contemplate a campaign under Charest's leadership. However the months passed and he became more and more unhappy. He's been surely upset when the Îles' voters thrown him out of office in the 1998 provincial election. This year it's seems like repeating. In 2003 he was energetic about the Federal Liberals' prospects in Quebec. Now with the sponsorship scandal, and with the possibility that the LPC will be punished by proxy for the decisions of the QLP's provincial government, he's feeling sad everytime he talks about the performance of the Libs. Of course Farrah's behaviour and mood swings are pure adecdotes, but they're not a good sign. I presently guess that G-I-d-l-M will be a very narrow BQ win. The Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine federal riding covers three provincial ridings: Bonaventure, Gaspé, and Îles-de-la-Madeleine. Bonaventure had been a QLP stronghold for a long time, it seems to me that the QLP results from the last 1998 and 2003 provincial elections are not as strong as they were when Gérard D. Lévesque was the Liberal MNA of Bonaventure from 1956 to 1993. Gaspé and Îles-de-la-Madeleine were not even fertile terrain for the provincial Liberals, the PQ candidate in each of the two provincial ridings managed to win in 2003. | |||
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25/03/04 | Marc Dandurand Jr Email: [hidden] | |
| Le Bloc va l'emporter principalement en raison de la grogne face au silence de Farrah face au controversé projet de l'usine de traitement de déchets toxiques de Belledune. De plus, le Bloc profitera du mécontentement des régions face aux politiques du gouvernement provincial. | |||
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20/03/04 | syllap Email: sylapointe@hotmail.com | |
| Georges Farrah will return for the Liberals, the Bloc had a chance, but decided to go with Raynald Blais as candidate..... | |||
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20/03/04 | Bear and Ape Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com | |
| We feel, with some certainty, that despite their current ills, this is one that the Liberals will not loose back to the BQ in rural Quebec. It looks like the Liberals are going to get trounced throughout the province (outside the Montreal region, Outaouis or parts of the Eastern Townships) but this one could and should hold (in our opinion). This riding was always close when the BQ won it. With redistribution a big chunk of the former Matane-Matapedia riding has been added to Gaspesie and bringing a fair amount of Liberal supporters (Matane-Matapedia almost went Liberal in 2000). True the Liberals are hated as of now in Quebec, but Quebec politics are more volitile than elsewhere in the country and if the Liberals start with the "Don't let the Conservatives win by voting for the Bloc" rhetoric, then this will stay red. | |||
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