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Kings-Hants
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale
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Update/Mise à jour: 6:37 PM 6/26/2004 
Prediction Changed La prévision a changé 3:55 PM 6/27/2004 |
Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription
Candidates/candidats:
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(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
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Liberal Party/Parti libéral: Scott Brison | ||||||
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N.D.P./N.P.D.: Skip Hambling | ||||||
| Independent: Richard Hennigar | |||||||
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Christian Héritage Chrétien: Jim Hnatiuk | ||||||
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Conservatives/Conservateurs: Bob Mullan | ||||||
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Green Party/Parti Vert: Kevin Stacey | ||||||
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Incumbents/Les députés: | |||||||
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Kings-Hants (100.0%) Hon. Scott Brison | ||||||
2000 Result/Résultats:
| Redistributed | ||
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14,130 | 40.13% |
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10,741 | 30.50% |
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6,202 | 17.61% |
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3,315 | 9.41% |
| 826 | 2.35% | |
Kings-Hants (182/227 polls, 58444/72101 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 10741 | |
| 3315 | |
| 6202 | |
| 14130 | |
| 826 | ||
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24/06/04 | Voice of the Common Man Email: [hidden] | |
| Brison by a mile. Compas has him at almost 50 percent of the vote, CPC 20 points behind. Red Maritime Tories are shunning the CPC, and not just in King's Hants. | |||
| 24/06/04 | Randy Email: [hidden] | ||
| The Brison folks will likely pull this off, but everyone on the streets (poorly sample-sized COMPASS polls aside) thinks this will be much closer than pundits expect. Brison's ace-in-the-hold -- going to Ottawa as a Liberal member and sitting in a stronger Liberal cabinet -- is now basically worthless. He still has a lot of appeal, particularly among Acadia University groupies who aren't even from Kings-Hants. But many people I've talked with -- even those who say they will vote for him -- hope a close results will humble him and his campaign staff. | |||
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24/06/04 | Mike D Email: | |
| Brison's name and his team will help him win a close race. The NDP may be a spoiler that could result in a Conservative victory. But I don't think so. | |||
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24/06/04 | Anonymous Email: [hidden] | |
| The Conservatives are running an effective ground campaign in Kings Hants. The debate was quite revealing, and many people are seeing the hypocrisy in Brison's statements. His personal popularity is unlikely to be able to save him from his previous statements. Expect a close race, with Dr. Bob Mullan coming out on top. | |||
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24/06/04 | JMG Email: [hidden] | |
| Maybe these Conservative posters haven't been to the riding lately. Brison has a huge lead in all polls done throughout the campaign, he's easily winning the sign war (and even more than that, people actually saved their Brison PC signs from the last election and are posting them along with Liberal ones), and he's immensely popular with the people of the riding. This is an easy one for for Brison and the Kings-Hants Liberals, and I'm actually rather surprised it hasn't yet been moved into the win column for the Libs. | |||
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24/06/04 | J. Gould Email: jobiooine@yahoo.com | |
| Brison is campaigning hard for re-election - to date, he's the only candidate to have canvassed my street in Wolfville. His personal popularity should carry him to victory next week. The sign war seems to be inconclusive, but Brison is sure to dominate his hometown of Windsor, and I expect other towns to be split, with significant NDP support acting as a potential spoiler and even some Greens in Wolfville and Grand-Pre. All that being said, though I'm an NDP member, I may end up voting for Brison. | |||
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24/06/04 | Janey Email: [hidden] | |
| I was just in Kings Hants and it now seems that Scott Brison will indeed win here! There are more signs for him and people genuinely like him. Add to that the early difficulty the Conservatives had in finding a candidate and the Tories who went with Scott to the Liberals. It is hard to believe this riding will be in the Liberal fold but look for it on June 28! | |||
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20/06/04 | Boag Email: [hidden] | |
| Brison all the way. Don't belive the Conservative hype - Brison is extremely popular and probably one of the five safe seats in the province. | |||
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15/06/04 | Buck Email: | |
| This riding has strong conservative tendancies. Brison may buck the trend and hold onto his seat, but conservative valley residents will likely punish his rank opportunism. The Conservatives have a strong and well-liked candidate. He will win by a margin that will surpise most observers. | |||
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15/06/04 | A.H. Email: [hidden] | |
| I think this is a true blue riding and the Conservatives will pull this one out of Atlantic Canada despite Scott Brison's notoriety. Everyone should push Scott to return to the Conservative fold and abandon the porkbarrelling Liberal slime. No one can balme Brison for the scandals personally but he should come out of the liberal closet and return to his blue roots while castigating the liberals and making apologetic amends to the Tory fold. Despite my predictions Brison may pull this one out of his hat. D.H. | |||
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12/06/04 | Nick Boragina Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com | |
| This riding was close enough in the last election to make it unpredictable this time around. The difference is that Brison is now a Liberal. The people that voted Brison (not PC) will again vote Brison (Not Liberal). I think this will still be enough to force him over the edge, and into first place. Liberal gain... one of the few. | |||
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12/06/04 | E. MacKenzie Email: [hidden] | |
| Another of the tough ones, but I think Kings-Hants will go Conservative. Part of it may be anger at Scott Brison's party switch (which could invigorate Conservative-inclined voters to turn out in high numbers), but it's also a seat that has a strong Conservative history and it's shaping up to be a good Conservative year. There's far less division between PC and Alliance elements than the Liberals hoped for, and Brison may end up paying the price by losing his seat. | |||
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12/06/04 | Email: | |
| Scott Brison has a healthy lead in the latest Compass poll. He takes it in a landslide | |||
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12/06/04 | Aric Houlihan Email: arichoulihan@rogers.com | |
| According to the COMPASS riding poll released today, Scott Brison has a 20 point lead over the Conservatives, so it looks like he was right to join the Liberals after all as the results also show that even with Brison out, the Liberals would still win this riding over the Conservatives. | |||
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10/06/04 | N. Morine Email: [hidden] | |
| I live in the riding and work in a local grocery store so I have lots of opportunity to poll people as per their opinions. In the area of Wolfville, Brison will lead. Mullen has strong support as well as Skip. Kentville will vote overwhelmingly in favour of Mullen. The signs all over the place in the town tell the tale. I saw perhaps three Brison signs when driving around Kentville yesterday, compared with at least thirty Mullen signs. Kentville is also quite a bit more conservative than Wolfville, which is a University town as well as a town with a large gay community. Combined with vote splitting on the left between Brison and Hambling, and a strong air of disappointment with Brison for nullifying the democratic process by changing parties in mid-term and thus nullifying the voices of those constituents whom elected him as a conservative, we will see a Mullen victory with Brison at least ten to fifteen percent behind, with Hambling and Green party in tow. | |||
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10/06/04 | MD Email: [hidden] | |
| Scott Brison will win, it kills me to say it, but Kings-Hants is going to go Liberal. Scott is well known, smart, and liked nation wied. The new party will not get much of the PC vote, which will come with Brison to the Liberal Party. | |||
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10/06/04 | Thomas Cranmer Email: letstalk@sympatico.ca | |
| Liberal gain. Based on the results of a COMPAS poll in today's National Post (June 11, 2004) of 12 key ridings, Scott Brison has a commanding 20% lead on his nearest rival, Conservative candidate Bob Mullan. Voters in King-Hants are unfazed by Brison's decision to bolt to the Liberals. | |||
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10/06/04 | GW Email: mongar@hotmail.com | |
| An update - in conversation with a local Tory he commented that on his way to Halifax at 6 am in the morning that Brison and his whole crew were on the side of road with signs. His comment to this was they must be worried to be doing this so early (i.e. in campaign). | |||
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02/06/04 | Initial Email: jobiooine@yahoo.com | |
| When Scott Brison crossed the floor to the Liberals, he took a number of riding executives with him, including riding president Paul Hobson, an economics prof at Acadia. Whether Brison is reelected will depend on how many ex-PCers he brings over to the Liberal side. With the Liberals still doing well in the polls in the Atlantic provinces, Brison has a good chance. However, I can't rule out a surprise. Provincially, Kings-Hants is held by one NDP and three PC MLAs and, in the last election, the NDP came second in Kings South (a tight three-way race), Kings North, and Hants West. It's not inconceivable that they'll stage an upset. But, since the NDP (at least federally) seem to have a weaker organization, much of their potential support will likely go to the Liberals, so I think Brison should be able to squeak through. | |||
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02/06/04 | GW Email: [hidden] | |
| Also I understand many here have not liked how Brison handled his transition - not a considered and mature departure with regret from a party to which he owes much but was rather marked as a sorry loser going to the only bidder. This riding has a long history of voting Tory, will continue to do so - especially after the gun registry announcement - even my father - a life long Liberal is voting Tory this time. It will be interesting to watch how much time Harper spends in Atlantic Canada. At the moment not much, but if he does it will be as a result of doing very well elsewhere. | |||
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01/06/04 | full Email: [hidden] | |
| The Liberal candidate is Scott Brison, who is the current MP, but who switched from the PC's to the Liberals. This has been a Conservative seat for at least 50 years, except for the year I ran, in which the conservative vote was split three ways, myself for Reform, the PC candidate and Pat Nowlan as an Independent. Pat was a long time PC MP in the riding. Between myself and Pat, we siphoned off about 12,500 votes that would normally have gone to the PC candidate, Jim White. The Liberal won in a squeaker. History has not been kind to "turncoat" politicians. The Conservative Mullan will not have to deal with a split vote, and will win easily. Prediction: Conservative. | |||
| 29/05/04 | C. Hubley Email: [hidden] | ||
| A young person who liked Scott's economic "ideas" in 2003 would seem to be more likely to vote for the Green Party (if they actually read the Greens' platform) than for a Liberal or a Neo-Conservative. It's hard to imagine a lot of youth actually getting enthusiastic about either big party this time around: they've been betrayed in every possible way that one can be. I think the average Nova Scotian understands perfectly well why Scott had to shift parties: he wants to remain politically effective, and a gay man in the Neo-Conservative party would certainly not have been so effective. | |||
| 29/05/04 | D Teed Email: [hidden] | ||
| There will certainly be some people who stick with Brison no matter what. They are the voter that wants to know the person, and he is established here. However there is a very sour mood regarding the Liberals in Canada right now, and if these people decide that their vote matters (that is the toughest part) they could show up and vote for a new name simply based on the activities of the party leader they prefer. People feel betrayed by the politicians who say one thing and do another. McGinty in Ontario just pulled one of these. Scott changing to Liberal mid-way through his term is a form of the political flip-flop that pisses voters off. | |||
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28/05/04 | psephologist Email: [hidden] | |
| The lastest polls are making Brison's switch look a lot better for him...if the Liberals really do get over 50% of the vote in the region, all sitting Liberal MPs will be returned. | |||
| 26/05/04 | NovaHammer Email: [hidden] | ||
| This riding will again vote for a party on the way out, unfortunately. The opportunity to gain leverage is there for The Valley to seize through The NDP's Skip Hambling along with Jack Layton's fresh package of reducing taxes at the bottom while returning taxes at the top. We tried everything else haven't we lets try common sense. After almost a generation of this riding being controlled by Old Boys Party's without any forward movement the people should be restless, hell they should be up in arms! Nova Scotians should demand some forward action for their children future and parents final years. The Military should not become the Uniformed unemployable of Canada's east coast! Our support should pay us dividends beyond that. Voting for the old Red or Blue partys is a vote to be ignored again until next election. But that's the way it has always been done down here... Local Candidates are seen as honourable people but The National Agenda and Government in Power treats rural NS with distain. I haven't seen Farmers around here who pile 'it' as high as The Liberal and Conservative National Leaders Platforms. Time for some attention getting Innnovation that doesn't condone skimming, overlooking pre-election complacent 'new' party promises and all who agree with those choices. What will school and medicine cost in anthoer 10 yars? Voting one more Dr out of practise and into Gov't seems counter productive. The 'slinky toy' type of Liberal budgeting shouldn't make sense to anyone especially an honourable but confusedd businessman. | |||
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25/05/04 | Balon Email: buckleycrowe@hfx.eastlink.ca | |
| Not too much should be made of the 'conservative' nature of this riding. This isn't Cumberland-Colchester (now North Nova) where they could run a monkey for the CPC and get him elected. The Annapolis Valley is Nova Scotia's third 'urban' region, and is more "Progressive" than "Conservative" -- note that the Alliance polled no better here than in Metro Halifax. Provincially, parts of the riding have voted Liberal, and even NDP. Even federally, recent elections have been close contests, and the outcome depends much more on the strength of the local candidate, and on local issues, than it does elsewhere in Nova Scotia. Not that Scott Brison will have a cakewalk here, but many Valley folk respect and share his view of the CPC. He is high-profile, and can be expected to appear in a Martin cabinet. If Martin makes a couple of appearances in this riding during the campaign, I expect Brison will narrowly pull it off. | |||
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24/05/04 | V. McNeil Email: [hidden] | |
| This riding will most certainly continue as a conservative hold. Brison is strongly viewed as a betrayer and I do not believe that the electorate in the valley will give him the nod on the 28th. | |||
| 19/05/04 | Bear and Ape Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com | ||
| This is one riding that has completly befuddled us. We are in total disagreement as to what will happen. Bear says: The Liberals will win. Brison is popular enough to overcome the conservative nature of the voters in this riding. That along with Joe Who (Clark) endorsing him, and Martin's new golden boy will be the Nova Scotia cabinet minister in the (presumed) new liberal government. Ape says: Brison has honked off the voters by switching parties. This riding being more conservative will not look kindly on the defection. As the election get on its way we can expect resources being put into this riding since the Conservatives know that they *could* win it and just for the sake of revenge. What both of us can agree on is that this race will be close with Brison and the Conservative in a heated battle. | |||
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19/05/04 | Scott Email: s.laverdue@systemx.com | |
| Brison has great personal appeal and has worked very hard for the people of Kings-Hants. Joe Clark has even thrown his support behind Brison. This will be a Liberal pick up. | |||
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19/05/04 | Liam O'Brien Email: lpmobrie@dal.ca | |
| Scott's economic policies were of interest to many young NS tories back in 2003. Then he abandoned every single one of them to sit with the Liberal Party of Canada - from taxes to RDAs to Banks, none of them are seeing the light of day. Also, he informed Ottaw apsin doctors of his decision before his own riding board were informed. He has lost the respect of most of his local organizers and supporters. Policy, and feelings of betrayal aside, I have spent a fair bit of time in this riding. The provincial MLAs support the conservative Party of Canada... and Scott betrayed them and reneged on a promise not to campaign against them... Scott Brison is nothing but a youngster and has won far less respect than Mark Parent, David Morse, and most of all Ron Russell... these people will be working to help elect Bob Mullan. Mullan has a high profile in the community. The Annapolis Valley is one of the most conservative (small and capital c) ridings in Nova Scotia -- going back 50+ years. They aren't about to entertain Brison's party hopping. The premier of Nova Scotia is also very supportive of Bob Mullan and as I understand it, knows him well. Count on this being a fight . . mightbe a little close, but Mullan will win this seat. | |||
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07/05/04 | Stevo Email: | |
| As sad as his story is, Brison will not be put out of hs misery by the people of Kings-Hants. The Conservatives have apparently conceded this riding, citing Brison's personal appeal in the riding and his name-recognition as being impossible to overcome. Liberals to unfortunately hold this one, with Brison to become a cabinet minister in a reduced Liberal majority government. | |||
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07/05/04 | Mike Email: [hidden] | |
| I must warn you that I come from Ontario so I know very little about what is actually happening on the ground. What I can tell you, however, is this riding has almost never gone Liberal (only once: Campell's campaign) and Brison is viewed very negatively. I mean, Mullan won't need to work hard as promoting Brison as a flip flopping opportunist, and the Conservatives would love to see Brison go down, only for revenge's sake. I really don't think that voters will stick with Brison, for I don't think they are so much attatched to him as they are to the right-wing party. Tight one, but I don't think Scott can prevail! | |||
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04/05/04 | Nick Boragina Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com | |
| A recent poll shows about 3/4ths of both PC and CA voters are willing to vote for the CPC. I assume the remaining voters would go Liberal. Using those numbers alone, you see a very close Lib-CPC race here. I think Brison as the incumbant will be enough to turn this riding over. He has a high profile, and the Liberals want this riding. They will have no problem taking it. | |||
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04/05/04 | Voice of the Common Man Email: [hidden] | |
| Assuming no other changes from 2000, Brison would only need to take 25 percent of the former Tory voters to retain this riding. Even if a quarter of the Liberals from 2000 desert Brison, a minority of the former PC vote can still put him over the top. The former Tories are staying away from the CPC in droves in Atlantic Canada. Liberal Gain/Hold depending on how you look at it. | |||
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30/04/04 | David.C Email: | |
| Even though alot of Tories are going to be angry over Brison's floor crossing he will win the seat. A previous person said Martin likes him and this seems to be true therefore the Liberals will put alot of energy into keeping this seat. Also Stephen Harper's previous comments about the Atlantic's 'Defeatist attitude' will hurt the Conservatives. Another thing is that the Liberals don't seem to have taken as big a hit over the 'sponsership scandal' here as they have elsewhere. Sure people are angry but whether they will blame Brison for it remains to be seen. | |||
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29/04/04 | Not Non-Partisan Email: [hidden] | |
| You don't have to review the record much to find recent hypocrisy on the part of Scott Brison and it will be so easily exploited. Bye-bye! | |||
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28/04/04 | HABSFAN Email: [hidden] | |
| This will be one of the most closely watched ridings anywhere in the country simply because of Brison. There are many people in the CPC who would voluntarily come to this riding to work against the turncoat if it were financially possible. | |||
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19/04/04 | GM Email: [hidden] | |
| Tories don't like turncoats. Add to the fact that this riding has always been a conservative stronghold, and I think that Brison is looking for a new job after this election. Turncoat-Brison will get 34%, but that won't be enough to beat the new MP from Kings-Hants, Dr. Bob Mullan. | |||
| 04/04/04 | cobb Email: [hidden] | ||
| Now that Dr. Bob Mullan is in the Race, it is clear that many old tories are coming back into the fold. Scott Brison made a big mistake and I think that he knows it. It will certainly be interesting, however I think when the votes are counted, Kings-Hants will remain a tory seat. | |||
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03/04/04 | Pat Druken Email: patdruken@yahoo.ca | |
| Scott's strongest organizers in 2000 came from outside the riding. They were NS Tory whiz kids who thought of him as a friend. That's no longer the case. Now they're all gunning for his seat. I hate to say it, but Scott's going to lose this one. | |||
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29/03/04 | Dean Email: deansherratt@rogers.com | |
| Brison bought into the Liberal "stock market" the day before it crashed. Since then, his attacks on the Conservatives and Harper have made him into a kind of "attack dog" that is a little unseemly for someone so recently in Liberal ranks. I think the uniting of the Conservative vote will outweigh those 2000 election PCs who woudl take this of all elections, to vote for the Liberals. | |||
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28/03/04 | JT Email: [hidden] | |
| Scott Brison will probably go down as making one of the worst decisions in Canadian politics. Leaving the united right for the Liberals just before Adscam hit. Then having to run Liberal in a traditional Tory when the Liberals are sinking in the polls. However, there's always provincal politics as he would be a good Premier. ( Question is would he be a Tory or Liberal if he chooses this route). | |||
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23/03/04 | S. Lutz Email: [hidden] | |
| CP should be able to retake this one. Unless Brison is able to take about 30% of his 2000 votes with him as personal support, he might be out of a job. Strong riding association and a popular local candidate point to the conservatives retaking this stronghold. | |||
| 20/03/04 | Roger Rankin Email: [hidden] | ||
| Brison is popular in the riding, but it's not a traditionally Liberal-leaning seat. Brison's personal popularity may well carry the day, especially if Stephen Harper's baggage weighs the conservatives down in Atlantic Canada. The quality and strength of the NDP candidate could also make a difference here though it's unclear a spike in the NDP vote will be more helpful to Brison or the tories, or even possibly enough to allow them to win in a 3-way race. Too early to call this one. | |||
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20/03/04 | Jacob Email: [hidden] | |
| Harper won the CPC leadership today. This will help the party in Western Canada but will hurt them badly in the Atlantic. All Brison has to do is quote the now infamous 'defeatist' comment Mr. Harper made about Atlantic Canadians to win this riding quite handidly. | |||
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19/03/04 | Colin Pye Email: [hidden] | |
| This seat has only gone Liberal once since 1948, in the 1993 election where the right-wing vote was split three ways between Reform, PC's and Independent MP Pat Nowlan. Scott Brison's defection has been a highly unpopular move in his riding; the takeover of the Kings-Hants Liberal Association executive by many of Brison's former PC friends has not been entirely welcome in local Liberal ranks. Dr. Bob Mullan of Kentville is currently the most likely contender for the Tory nomination; although he isn't well-known in Hants County, Brison didn't enjoy the highest profile in Kings County in '97 either. Kings North MLA Mark Parent opposed the merger, but is highly regarded throughout the riding and could take it. The bleeding of Red Tories to the Grits seems to have stopped with the sponsorship scandal; even a Harper leadership victory will not restart the exodus. Call this one Conservative. | |||
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18/03/04 | Full Email: [hidden] | |
| Two reasons why Brison will lose his seat. One, many Conservative voters feel betrayed by Brison as a result of his "sudden change of heart". He has been condemed by many prominent Tories like Peter Mackay, and has been branded a traitor by many of his local constituents. Two, with the sponsorship scandal in the air this may be enough for on the fench red tories and undecided voters to find shelter with the CPC. Also with names floating around like George Moody a Tory MLA for 20 years, Mark Parent the current MLA in Kings County, Joe Varnerthe executive director in Nova Scotia Senator Forestall's office in Ottawa, Brison will be in the fight of his life. | |||
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18/03/04 | Marto Email: [hidden] | |
| My prediction might be more hopeful that truthful on this one. I think that Brison would have held this one - if not for the sponsorship program issue. He is going to regret his move after the election - Of course if the Libs win governemtn - I'm sure he'll get a nice appointment!?! | |||
| 17/03/04 | MJ Email: [hidden] | ||
| Hmmm...this one's a head-scratcher. People who live here say Brison's still personally popular, but this is apparently a solid blue riding so he's going to have a heck of a time winning it as a Liberal. I hear a family doctor by the name of Mullen is running for the Tories...doctors command a lot of respect from the people so that won't help Brison either. This is one of those wait-and-see ridings, I think. | |||
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17/03/04 | RWA Email: radams2@uwo.ca | |
| The one region where Liberal poll numbers aren't hurting is Atlantic Canada. Martin wants this riding and Brison will bring enough old PC votes his way to keep it in the Liberal column. | |||
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16/03/04 | Nick Boragina Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com | |
| Looking at last time's Redistributed result, we see that the Liberals lost by 10% and the alliance got 17% of the vote. Basic math means that so long as 15% of the riding follows Brison from PC to Liberal, he will win, assuming the Liberals dont bleed votes anywhere. I think Martin likes Brison and will target the riding. Brison will be played to red tories all across the country, to try to get them to vote Liberal. | |||
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27/02/04 | Patrick Webber Email: | |
| Scott Brison's brand of right-wing economic policy and progressive social policy fits well with Martin's Liberals and with Maritimes conservatives (small c) in general. A few died in the wool Tories will be upset, but Brison should have no difficulty winning this riding as a Liberal. | |||
| 27/02/04 | Patrick Webber Email: | ||
| Before the sponsorship scandal, Scott had this one wrapped up. Now that the Liberals are in some trouble, Scott's victory is less certain. The Conservatives' fortunes will depend upon whether the new leader has any appeal in the Maritimes and the strength of the NDP candidate. I can't call this one yet. | |||
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