Vaughan-King-Aurora

Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Vaughan-King-Aurora

Last Update:
2:11 AM 19/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
14 October 2002

Political Profile:

Candidates:
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Liberal Party:
Greg Sorbara

Progressive Conservative:
Carmine Iacono

New Democratic Party:
Mike Seaward

Green Party:
Adrian Visentin

Incumbent:

Greg Sorbara

Federal MP:

Hon. Maurizio Bevilacqua

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 7663

*AL PALLADINI

28836 54.7%

TONY GENCO

21173 40.17%

MICHAEL SEAWARD

1539 2.92%

JOHN W. GENSER

670 1.27%

ERNST VON BEZOLD

495 0.94%

2001 By-election:

Plurality 9789

Greg Sorbara

21961 61.24%

Joyce Frustaglio

12172 33.94%

Ernst von Bezold

752 2.10%

Mike Seaward

708 1.97%

Rina Morra

267 0.74%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 28 451

Maurizio Bevilacqua

38 208 67.2%

Adrian Visentin

9 757 17.2%

Menotti Mazzuca

6 551 11.5%

Octavia Beckles

1 938 3.4%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 164590

1996 119117

1991 103631

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 35485

20-39 37815

40-59 31985

60+ 13820

Avg Household Income
$79117

Labour Participation 72.30%

Unemployment 6.80%

Canadian Citizen
93.79%

Canadian Born 68.32%

Ontario Born 63.93%

Immigrant 31.28%

Visible Minority 5.81%

Aboriginal 0.21%

First Language

English 72260

French 920

Italian 31080

Residence

House 92.70%

Apartment 7.21%

Owned 86.59%

Rented 13.41%

Avg Dwelling Value $306050

Education

University 22650

College/Trade School 25340

Secondary 29690

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	17/09/03	Craig Email:
This riding is staying Liberal, and the 2001 by-election support should hold up. Even in the 905 area there is a lot of anger over education, health care, traffic, urban sprawl and the environment, and the Tory candidate is very weak this time around. This is the only riding in the York Region battleground that is probably decided...there is an outside chance the Liberals might sweep those 5 ridings, but this one they have for sure. The NDP are no more than a fringe party here (and the Greens should beat them for third), so all the real opposition vote is red. Current prediction: Sorbara 58%, Iacono 33%, Visentin 5%, Seaward 2%, others 2%.
	08/08/03	Alan C. Email:
Its amazing that incumbant like Greg Sorbara is held in such high regard. After all wasn't he the York Centre candidate in 1985 who also PROMISED to close down construction of Darlington Nuclear Power Plant despite the Liberals having no viable game plan. It ultimately cost the taxpayers over 4 BILLION dollars, money we are still paying as debt retirement. Its amazing then to hear him rag on about how the Tories have increased Hydro's debt. He also was key in the botched pay equity solution for Ontario's Nurses. The Liberals overnite increased the payroll costs to Ontario's Hospitals, put no additional monies in and got political brownie points. Meanwhile these same hospitals CLOSED BEDS AND FIRED NURSES TO PAY FOR IT. Altereri,Skydome are other examples of the fine work Sorbara is associated with.
	12/05/03	Grizz Email:
The Liberals slaughtered the PC during the 2001 by-election. With the Liberal party poised to form the government (in my humble opinion as of now) the voters will keep the incumbant in his seat.
	07/05/03	Craig Email:
Sorbara to hold, big time. The 2001 by-election proved that the Tories are losing a lot of support even in the suburbs, and the Liberals are currently 15 percentage points ahead of the Tories in the 905 area. The NDP are a fringe party here, so the Liberals have all the votes the Tories lost without having to worry about losing some on the left - and that 61% in the by-election should hold up, knowing he could be strong in cabinet (Government House Leader?). Predicted results: LIB 59%, PC 30%, Green 7%, NDP 2%.
	18/03/03	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
If there was a "tipping point" for Tory/Liberal electoral fortunes going into the next election, it was the nomination--never mind the byelection win--of Greg Sorbara in VKA; at that point, it was an automatic "game over" for the "Blue 905" myth, and perhaps as ominous a presagement as Chris Hodgson's byelection win was in 1994. Though the Grits could still tank, as they've been prone to do. But that won't mean Sorbara will be defeated; rather that, within the 905, he'll be once again isolated. (And preparing his swords for the hapless McGuinty, but that goes into a whole different realm of rumour and innuendo...)
	09/03/03	E.S. Email:
This one will remain Liberal, without a shadow of a doubt. But allow me to clarify for just a moment. My comments are not in any way a reflection of Dalton McGuinty's ability to lead the party (or the province). Rather, it is a resounding reflection on the ability of Sorbara to be an effective, informed and visible LOCAL politician. He did a great job for many years in his first run, and I have no doubt that regardless of political affiliation, he will take great care in one's particular needs. Chalk this one up on a reflection of Sorbara's history with a proven dedication and track record, and not so much on the Liberal agenda.
	27/02/03	Panther Email:
As much as the Tories want this seat back to claim for their own, it will be difficult to pry it from the hands of Sorbara. This riding votes based on incumbancy. Sorbara is popular in the riding and across the province for that matter. He will likely become the next Liberal leader, replacing McGuinty, if they do not form government in this election. The voters in Vaughan King Aurora are aware of this and they want nothing more than to have their MPP as party leader.
	11/12/02	The Duke Email:
As a long time resident of this riding, I can safely say that Sorbara will win this seat handily. I read with great interest some of the other submissions that were written regarding this seat. They were really amusing. Sorbara has won in every election in which he has been a candidate (including 1985, when the former riding of York North was considered a Tory stronghold; and in 1990, when the NDP actually finished a strong second). I notice that one submission suggested that Sorbara only won the byelection because the Tory candidate was a "relative unknown". Hardly. Ms. Frustaglio has served on Vaughan Council for over a decade and her name is well-known across the region. Sorbara won because he has incredible name recognition, which will not change before the next election. In fact, during the byelection, Sorbara managed to win all three portions of this riding quite convincingly. And here's a truly sobering thought for all Tories up in VKA - even Al Palladini was unable to win a plurality of votes in the Vaughan portion of the riding (highest concentration of votes) against a relatively unknown Liberal candidate. As long as Sorbara is the Liberal, this riding will stay red. Further, with the proposed boundary changes creating a new Vaughan riding, one can safely predict that a large chunk of this seat will remain Liberal for most of our lifetime.
	27/11/02	Email:
Like in Ancaster, this was by-election blues for the incumbant. If the Tories win the province (which they likely will), they'll win Vaughan.
	26/10/02	Craig Email:
Sorbara has not done a great job here since he was elected in the 2002 by-elections, but those are on the same issues that kicked the Tories out of this seat (urban sprawl primarily). It all depends on who the Tories nominate here, if he is a strong candidate with a real plan then the Tories should reclaim this seat. Otherwise the Liberals should hold here. Like in most suburban areas, the NDP should be no more than a fringe party.
	22/10/02	JD Email:
The good hard-working people of Vaughan-King-Aurora demand excellence and loyalty from there MPP's -- which is why Sorbara won't get re-elected. He has neglected his home riding to an extent not seen before, and the voters will not forget that come election time. The PC's in VKA are well organized and do not want to be known as the only 905 seat that goes to the Grits. Greg better find his hard-hat and construction boots because after the next election he's no longer going to be the honorable member from VKA -- just another liberal hack sentenced to the dustbin of obscurity by the Ontario PC party.
	20/10/02	Bryan Email:
I agree that this one will be close, but to say that it's a safe Liberal seat is over simplifying. Byelections never tell the whole story. The byelection was between a star candidate for the Liberals and a relative unknown for the Tories. If the Tories nominate a better candidate this time around, I think they have definate shot at it. I'd say this one's too close.
	14/10/02	Big Tony Email:
Sobara got an amazing 61% of the vote in the by-election. The way things look now, he could improve on that next time.

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