Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Timmins-James Bay

Last Update:
4:50 PM 07/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
22 October 2002

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
Mike Doody
Progressive Conservative:
Merv Russell
New Democratic Party:
Gilles Bisson
Green Party:

Gilles Bisson

Federal MP:
Réginald Bélair

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

16504 52.9%

10238 32.82%

4139 13.27%

316 1.01%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality6 950
Réginald Bélair
16 335 54.2%
Len Wood
9 385 31.1%
James Gibb
3 356 11.1%
Daniel Clark
1 053 3.5%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation62.60%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born95.96%
Ontario Born82.90%
Visible Minority1.11%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$98726

College/Trade School17585

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01/10/03 Jen McGinn
Gilles Bisson is a definite shoo-in after winning clear majorities since 1990. I believe that Mike Doody is entering this election to bloster his own political image after not being satisfied enough with being mayor and city councillor. People in the riding can easily relate to Bisson, who clearly expresses northern concerns in the House of Commons. The people in Timmins and surrounding area want to see someone who will honestly and genuinely represent their concerns and not have someone in the House of Commons who is there to make themself look good. Bisson is someone who knows how politics works and will continue to represent for at least a few years to come. I can remember when Bisson was first elected when I was much younger, and it is great to see him still around, representing the needs of a very diverse culture of the north, from First Nations to university students who have paid way too much in tuition fees since the Tories came into power, and Bisson understands how the provincial Tory government, as it stands, does not represent nor care about the concerns of northern people.
26/09/03 R.G.
Barber poll calls for an overwhelming NDP victory. What a crock! I'm an educator and my young students know a biased poll when they see one. How do you account for women's votes and how do you account for the 15 000 votes north of Timmins. Our famous Barber should look back to 1977 when he predicted that Doody would win the mayoralty race. Last time Mr Poirier predicted an NDP victory was during the last federal election and Mr Belair took that one by a landslide. I don't predict a landslide in any sense, but I really feel the tide is turning red on this one. This may be one of the biggest upsets for the NDP in Ontario. R.G.
25/09/03 Neil J.
I really hope Mike Doody can pull this one off but it really seems like Gilles Bisson will win big yet again. Just a bit of history.... When Gilles first won in 1990 he had 47.6% of the votes, then 52.4% in 1995. then 52.9% in 1999. It's quite amazing that an NDP member increased support during the 1990s!! but that's what happens in our weak and troubled Northern Ontario economy. While southern Ontario boomed, Northern Ontario faced probably the worst recession/depression in its history. (bad times for mines, forestry and a major exodus of population. According to some "local" polls in Timmins and then calculating an estimate for the rest of the riding, Bisson will probably receive 46-47% of the votes (just like in 1990), a bit lower than last time but probably the highest of any NDP candidate. Doody should get about 35% and Russell about 17-18%.
07/09/03 Porky Pig
Well, to tell you the truth, I'm worried for Gilles. Although Gilles has helped many of us throughout his 13 years as MPP, I'm concerned wish Mike running. What concerns me is that Kap and Moonbeam would elect Mickey Mouse as MPP as long as he's Liberal. Mike's name recognition troughout the riding, including Timmins, which is a liberal stronghold federally, worries me. Although most I've spoke to think that Mike's a "passé" politician, name recognition means something.
21/05/03 Grizz
I think Reality Check should recheck his/her reality if he/she believes that the NDP will have only 2 seats after this election. The NDP are running at the same level in the polls as they did in 99 meaning they will likely keep all their seats, including this one.
01/05/03 Craig
The NDP is not finished, they are around where they were in 1999 in the lowest polls (10-12%) and much higher in the more optimistic polls (17-22%). They got an absolute majority here in 1999 despite only getting 12% province-wide, and that should increase. The Tory vote here was already the weakest in Ontario, so the Liberals don't have much to gain from the right, and it won't be nearly enough to unseat Bisson. Predicted results: NDP 54%, LIB 35%, Green 6%, PC 4% (yes, four percent!)
17/04/03 Reality Check
With the NDP officailly a fringe party running at 11 per cent, Bisson and Peter Kormos will be the only two members of the NDP caucus after the election. The NDP are finished.
25/03/03 Petrol Pete
While they are in a bit of a catfight on Bisson crossing the floor, the large felines, Panther and Puma, have got it right. In the far north, resource dependent economies are particularly vulnerable to economic swings. They won't see the Tories as job creators. In fact, people in this part of the province often do not differentiate between gov't jobs and private sector jobs: a job is a job. Therefore, the Tories are behind the 8 ball for the cuts made to MNR, Transportation and other such minstries in the past. Couple this with Bisson's reputation under the NDP for helping save jobs in industry and mining and his close relationship with the miner unions, Falconbridge's local, and First Nations and Bisson is a shoe in. The Liberals will be a non-entity in this race as their appeal to those motivated by social programs will be trumped by Bisson's bona fides in this area.
21/03/03 Panther
I'm a little honoured that the Puslinch Puma refers to me as an "insider". However, nothing could be further from the truth. I'm just someone who has an interest in the policital scene. Now, if the Puma (and Neil J. for that matter) would have taken the time to actually read my entire submission they would have noticed that 1. I predicted the NDP to win the riding, in fact I believe I inferred that Bisson would "smoke" the other candidates; 2. the only way the NDP would NOT win this election would be if Bisson crossed the floor to another party and that there is a "rumour" that he was indeed crossing to the Tories. Now, where in that submission did Puma read that Panther "thinks" Bisson is walking to the Tories? I was simply relaying rumours. By the way, the rumour is still out there, (I don't believe it, but that's the rumour!!)
17/03/03 Puslinch Puma
The Panther has been into the catnip if he thinks Bisson is crossing the floor. The Panther probably thinks that Barrie is northern ontario! Anyway, Bisson loves being in opposition where he is free to lambaste the Tories but doesn't have to carry the baggage of the Rae government anymore. Bisson gets to everything, flies so is fully mobile and has the native vote rapped around his finger. Because Toronto (and the insiders like the Panter) is so far away, Timmins James Bay voters like somebody they know and see around. Bisson will win this one with a similar vote as last time.
14/03/03 R.G.
The NDP had better start running. Word on the street in Timmins (can't talk about further north) is that Mike is right man for the job. He's well known from his contributions to local service groups as well as his time with the local television station. I really think this one will be a close-call but if Kap-Hearst-SmoothRockFalls vote red, it would be really difficult for Gilles to make up for the lost ground.
14/03/03 Marianne Kentish
Liberal Mike Doody will pull off what many will consider to be a "surprise win" over incumbent Gilles Bisson. Doody is well known, honest, and experienced. People will realize that the possibility of being on the "government side" will outway the virtues of the hard working Bisson. I look for a close race.......and Liberal upset in Timmins-James Bay
11/03/03 Peter
The entry of Michael Doody will give the liberals a real chance. Mike is fluently billingual and brings incredibel experience to the table. I think Mike transcends all party lines.
28/02/03 Neil J.
Mr. or Ms. Panther: There has never been talk of Gilles Bisson crossing the floor to the conservatives!!! That is the crazyest thing I've heard! If he did that he would be a traitor to Northerners. I'm a Liberal supporter but I know that he will win this year because he really has nothing to lose being VERY visible in the media and around town and also being in the opposition.
27/02/03 Panther
The only way this riding would vote any way but NDP would be if Bisson crossed the floor to another Party. (Which may not be too much of a stretch. There have been rumours circulating that Bisson is in fact considering a walk to the Tories. - Don't jump all over me...I'm only the messenger!!) Bisson is popular and well liked. He smoked the other candidates in 1999. He will do so again in 2003.
26/02/03 Don and Scott
Wow, Mike Doody running for the Liberals!? He would have to be bilingual to even have a chance. Does he speak French well?? This riding is mainly francophone. Mike was a good city counsellor and mayor for Timmins but he is older now and I can't see why he'd be interested at this time!? Somebody please also let me know who are the nominated candidates for Timmins James-Bay!! I think Gilles Bisson will win yet again. He is one of the few "down to Earth" people in the legislator.
09/02/03 Dave
Most will assume this to be a safe NDP seat, however the entry of Mike Doody will give the Liberals a high profile candidate here. In line with my prediction of 1 on 1 battle between the Libs and the Tories for the province, the Liberals need to unseat some Dippers to get a majority. The Liberals have nominated well throughout the North and have high hopes for gains in T-JB,SSM and Nickel Belt.
07/12/02 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
It wasn't always so for the PCs; remember that the former Cochrane South was the electoral home of Alan Pope who, after a leadership run that anticipated Mike Harris's populist Toryism, became the only north-of-Harris PC to survive the party's 1987 rout (and, so far, the last such "Northern Tory" to be elected). But after Pope retired in a huff, Timmins Toryism incinerated; and for two consecutive elections, Gilles Bisson's had the only NDP majority mandate in the province, having absorbed a whole lot of "Pope Democrats"--the reverse of what happened elsewhere in the province with erstwhile NDPers going Harris Reform-a-Tory. Ah, Howie Hampton must hope to turn Timmins-James Bay into a province-wide portent...
05/12/02 SM
Gilles Bisson is simply too beloved by the local population for any change here. To boot, the NDP have done very well in polls recently, while the Liberals are plummeting - as always - before the election. PC's don't stand a chance- they can hardly spell francophone let alone appeal to the francophone community which has been continually marginalized by this government.
21/11/02 Neil Jamieson
If Gilles Bisson runs again, which he said he would, he will win yet again with a high percentage of the votes. If he does not, then it will be very interesting. In Timmins-James Bay it is always either Liberal or NDP. The Liberals need a strong candidate (of course) in order to even make it close. The problem for the Liberal candidate is that Gilles Bisson is too visible around the riding and in the media. The conservatives.... LOL!! this is their worst riding. Just look at the 1999 provincial results. This is a mainly francophone riding also with a large aboriginal/first nations population. The population is also declining rapidly along with an economy (mainly mining and forestry) in depression. The PCs mention how wonderful they have been for Ontario's economy but they never mention how their policies have made Northern Ontario poorer and made many seek jobs in the south.
I see no real changes here, this should stay in the hands of the NDP. The Liberals might put some pressure on but I think the Far North is happy with who they have. The Tories might as well not even run here, they have no chance at all and will probably end up in single digits. I think, in the end, the NDP will win by about 10 percentage points.

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