Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003


Last Update:
3:01 AM 17/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
21 October 2002

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
David Ramsay
Progressive Conservative:
Rick Brassard
New Democratic Party:
Ben Lefebvre
Green Party:
Paul Palmer

David Ramsay

Federal MP:
Benoît Serré

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

16877 48.38%

10374 29.74%

7631 21.88%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality13 564
Ben Serré
19 404 62.4%
Dan Louie
5 840 18.8%
William J. Stairs
2 603 8.4%
Ambrose Raftis
2 461 7.9%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation57.60%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born96.11%
Ontario Born86.05%
Visible Minority0.75%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$92754

College/Trade School17060

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15/09/03 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
The Tories thought they had a chance of winning this riding in 1999 -- but, even with a quasi-real NDP candidate[*], they couldn't. T-C may be socially conservative on some issues (gun control, etc.), but it *really* isn't the sort of place where neo-conservative economics go over well. If Ramsay was ever vulnerable, it would have been in 1990; now, he's unassailable. ([*] I realize this might be a harsh way of describing an incumbent, but it was *Len Wood*, for God's sakes.)
16/05/03 Craig
The Liberal base has solidified here recently, and the Tories and NDP have both fallen in the polls. Earlier thoughts that the NDP might steal this one appear unlikely, since the Tory vote collapse will more than make up for lost votes by the Liberals on the left. Predicted results: LIB 50%, NDP 27%, PC 18%, Green 4%.
15/05/03 Joseph R. Quesnel
Email: jquesn2@yahoo.com
In my opinion, this riding can be won by the PCs if they play their cards right. The anti-Ramsay vote, esp. in north Timiskaming, can be capitalized on. Ramsay's do-nothingism, as well as opposition to ANY economic development in Kirkland Lake, could help Brassard. The local PCs also need to emphasize things like the Northern Heritage Fund, recent nursing incentives and ESP. the Northern Tax Incentive Zone. The only thing that can go wrong is a general anti-Tory feeling among the province, a "we need change" mentality. Overall, all the ingredients are there. I think this campaign has to be fought aggressively, stressing Ramsay's failures in the riding and the PCs sensitivity to Northern issues.
12/05/03 Grizz
I think I'm going to be saying this over and over again. Many Ontarians want a change in government, meaning the Liberals are to gain at the PC's expense. It is highly unlikely that many (if any) Liberal seats will be lost. Also look at the results from '99. With the same Liberal and PC candidates running I think Panther has gotten into the catnip if he believes that the PC's will take it.
22/04/03 Scott
SOON TO BE CABINET MINISTER! I believe there will be a Liberal sweep and David Ramsay will likely be either MNR or MNDM minister. I just can't believe the previous comment!! The economy is in big trouble in the North. Why would people all of a sudden want to support the current government by voting PC??? I am a Northerner and know what is happening here. Much of the previous NDP vote will likely shift to David Ramsay giving him a larger victory margin than in 1999!!
21/03/03 Panther
The claws are out Puma!! I stand by prediction that Brassard will win this riding. Over the last four years, Brassard has matured politically since his 1999 defeat. He's the popular mayor of Englehart, he's well known and well liked in Kirkland Lake and he's kept his nose clean since 1999. Ramsay has ruffled too many feathers and offended too many people since 1999. Brassard has learned a lot about campaigning since that fiasco of a campaign in 1999. He has put a strong campaign team together this time and has been out on the hustings meeting the voters since his nomination. It will be close, but Brassard will squeak by.
17/03/03 Puslinch Puma
Clearly the Panther doesn't know the north and has been hanging out at too many Albany Club scotch sniffings. The Adams Mine issue is one of those that makes many people strongly opposed and those that like it, don't like it enough to vote for it. Fact is Ramsey has made the right call on this one. While some elites in Kirkland may be all for it, the rest of the regular taxpayers are not. Besides, Ramsey has paid his dues and worked the riding hard. He might even make Cabinet while the Tories already have two guys nearby who will be before Brassard for cabinet. Northerners like Cabinet and the help it can bring areas like Matheson where it is really needed.
28/02/03 Neil J.
Why do some of you think that conservative candidate Rick Brassard will win?? Why would this Northern Ontario riding decide to support the current government while it is going through rough times and receiving little help from then conservatives! Is there actually any indication that large numbers of people in this riding are planning to vote PC???
27/02/03 Panther
I think this riding will be closer than most people think. There is a lot of angry voters out there and it is mostly directed at the Liberals. The federal gun-registry is not popular at all in this riding (moreso than in other ridings). The voters may take it out on Ramsay. As well, the Toronto garbage issue and Adam's Mine WILL be a campaign issue here. There are more Adam's Mine Project people in here than most think, if only for economic reasons. Ramsay was admanently opposed to this. He might regret his opposition. I'll predict that Brassard will squeak out a win.
26/02/03 Don Roy
Rick Brassard is only popular in mainly anglophone Englehart, one of the few conservatives towns of Northern Ontario. Englehart makes up very little of the riding's population. His other support comes from some farmers in Temiskaming who are kind of like rural southern Ontarians. But this is really no more than 25-30% of the population. Mr. Brassard has nothing to gain from the last election. Easy win for David Ramsay.
09/02/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Rick Brassard would really have a better chance here if PC were in opposition--thus channelling a little Reformish populist energy; unfortunately, PC's in power (and under Oily Eves, yet), and Adams Mine or not, Ramsey's populist enough for these parts. Not that there isn't reason enough for PC optimism--it was Northern Ontario's only federal PC seat in 1988-93, there's a strong erstwhile CoR undercurrent around places like Englehart, and Sturgeon Falls used to be Mike Harris turf (though the most Liberal-leaning part thereof). But this being Northern Ontario, it's just as likely that PC and NDP will split the opposition vote--even allowing for incumbency not having helped the NDP's Len Wood one bit in '99...
04/02/03 Neil J.
Marto, get real! Rick Brassard ran in 1999 and didn't even come close. Why do you think these Northern Ontario voters are all of a sudden going to vote PC after hard economic times and unpopular government policies?!!!
16/12/02 MARTO
I think Rick Brassard might take it this time. David Ramsey has been a lame duck MPP and the Tories have dumped a lot of money in this riding. Ramsey will also suffer for having flip flopped on the Adams Mine Project. The folks up in Kirkland Lake will not forget the Jobs he helped send to the USA
21/11/02 Neil Jamieson
David Ramsay will win. He has been an effective voice for Northern Ontario when dealing with many things like ONTC, toxic waste and dump sites and health care. Why would anybody else really have a chance against him at this point!!??
22/10/02 EP
Dream on people. David Ramsey represented this since 1985, survived after crossing the floor, served as cabinet minister, and beat out another incumbent (plus one Rick Brassard) in 1999, not to mention that Ramsey has actually BEEN THAT GREAT. Unless Mcguinty screws up royal (which is not a distant possibility), Ramsey is up for a cabinet job, if not this round maybe next one under a different leader.
Actually, I think it will go the other way. The NDP wil be the primary threat, considering this area has been hit extremely hard by Tory cuts and other job cuts (much of the area is economically depressed). I don't think any announcements will help either. Since David Ramsay has not been that great, this will be an opportunity for the opposition. However, I feel the NDP will want this more, and will steal this one. It will be close though.
20/10/02 Dave Prisco
This race should be close. The Tories have nominated the Mayor of Englehart, Rick Brassard as their candidate, after a tremendous nomination seeing 5 candidates, and a membership of over 2200. Local Mayors are publicly critizing Liberal David Ramsey for his lack of action in the riding. Those Mayors include Bill Enouy of Kirkland Lake, Ken Graham of Iroquois falls and the 3 mayors of the Tri-Town region. The Tories came close last time, and could seal the deal this election with the right good news announcements for the riding.

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