Stormont-Dundas-Charlottenburgh

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Last Update:
3:33 PM 01/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
1:50 PM 29/09/2003

Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)

Liberal Party:
Jim Brownell

Progressive Conservative:
Todd Lalonde

New Democratic Party:
Matt Sumegi

Green Party:
Tom Manley

Incumbent:

John Cleary

Federal MP:

Bob Kilger

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 640

*JOHN CLEARY

20275 47.99%

*NOBLE VILLENEUVE

19635 46.47%

MAGGIE MACDONALD

2012 4.76%

IAN CAMPBELL

329 0.78%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 2 962

Bob Kilger

19 113 46.7%

Guy Lauzon

16 151 39.5%

Michael Bailey

3 635 8.9%

Kimberley Fry

1 696 4.1%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 94267

1996 95834

1991 92846

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 26805

20-39 26625

40-59 24290

60+ 18105

Avg Household Income
$50077

Labour Participation 62.60%

Unemployment 10.70%

Canadian Citizen
98.63%

Canadian Born 93.39%

Ontario Born 80.95%

Immigrant 6.51%

Visible Minority 1.95%

Aboriginal 1.11%

First Language

English 69635

French 19500

Residence

House 76.36%

Apartment 22.25%

Owned 67.90%

Rented 32.10%

Avg Dwelling Value $110094

Education

University 9865

College/Trade School 22330

Secondary 32945

Authorized by the CFO for the Stormont-Dundad-Charlottenburgh Provincial Green Association


	01/10/03	Judi Bud Email:
I'm not convinced that Jim Brownwell has this riding all locked up. If the rural voters come out in higher numbers than the urban voters in Cornwall then Todd Lalonde could be one of the upset winners we'll see.
	28/09/03	outsider Email:
Det is spreading some serious disinformation on your sit. The Jim Brownell team is not strong. In fighting has damaged the campaign team to the point that retiring liberal incumbent John Cleary doesn't even have a red sign on his lawn. The people who got the liberals through the last provincial and federal election aren't even involved this time round.
	28/09/03	D. Craig Email:
There are two ways of looking at this issue. The first is to measure the discontent of the population with the current government, and the second is to look at the local candidates. The PC candidate severely crippled his campaign by not attending the first debate, and then by leaving a second early due to the heat. From conversation around town, most people feel that a politician that can't handle the heat can't properly represent his/her constituents ... period. Add to this the fact that Jim Brownell is known for his honesty and hard work for the people. Even though the PC's have more money to spend (signage), I'm confident that the Liberal's will take this riding.
	25/09/03	DET Email: techdim@yahoo.com
I have been involved in the community with both Todd and Jim and my perception of things is that Todd is a hard worker who is deserving of the nomination because of his hard work and dedication to the party... that does not necessarily translate into the qualifications we need to represent us.. Jim is equally as dedicated to public service and is a seasoned politician who has served his apprenticeship and has the brains and education to most likely serve as a minister or at the very least a member of cabinet... That having been said, it is a much different thing when you look at winning an election... Todd stepped in to big holes when he walked out of OPSEU sponsored meet the candidate night, did not answer the questions for french newspaper and all others did, failed to address issues and was argumentative in the chamber of commerce debate and seems bent on self destruction...Jim has not been a shining light but has held his own quite well and has gained the reputation of the energizer bunny based on his hard work...his team is strong and been there before with both prov and feds... If McGuinty does not snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, like libs have done twice before, then Jim will carry riding as Todd is nowhere as strong a candidate as Noble Villeneuve was and remember that he lost to John who was, for all intents and purposes retired...
	24/09/03	Christopher J. Currie Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
S-D-C may be the most vulnerable Liberal seat in this cycle (with Prince Edward-Hastings perhaps providing some competition). Even if the Liberals form government, as seems increasingly likely, it's possible that the Cornwall area will turn its back on the party. One could rhyme off several reasons for this: the CA's 40% in 2000 obviously indicates a strong rural/conservative population base ... John Cleary's victory over a cabinet minister last time was a bit of an upset, and he's not running again ... the polarization of the riding between Cornwall and the surrounding countryside could benefit the Tories ... and so forth. Ultimately, though, I suspect that the anticipated provincial swing to the Liberals will be enough to carry the day. Local factors don't usually outweigh a provincial swing, and if the Liberals are still ahead by 8% or more on 30 September, this riding will stay red.
	23/09/03	Andrew Cox Email: andrewcox101@hotmail.com
Liberal hold. Reason. The latest Ipsos-Reid survey is out, and it is a doozy. The regional breakdown shows a very commanding Liberal lead in Eastern Ontario (Lib 54%, PC 30%, NDP 8%). More significantly, the rural/urban breakouts show the Liberals leading in rural Ontario as well (Lib 48%, PC 34%, NDP 11%). As usual, the Liberals can be expected to win Cornwall. But Ernie Eves' negative campaign, record and personality don't seem to be winning over the fine rural residents of this area either. Expect lots to stay home on Oct 2, or even vote Liberal. Judging from this survey, Grits just need to convert their lead into votes and its all over locally.
	22/09/03	jj_frap Email:
I'm (lamentably, as I'm voting either Liberal or Green) calling this one for the Tories now. A recent poll in the Cornwall Standard-Freeholder shows that -- in spite of being decimated throughout Ontario -- the Tories are doing better in Eastern Ontario than they were in 1999, even though a slim majority still want change. Whether this is due to same-sex marriage (quite frankly, I fail to see why people consider this a provincial issue...But I'm not sure anyone's interested in reading my editorial regarding why people feel shouldn't consider it a provincial issue...But I digress.) or to other factors (with the exception of Ottawa, the East is very rural and may want to punish the provincial Liberals for disappointment with the federal liberal's handling of mad cow) I have no clue. Cornwall appears to be going Blue -- as it always did provincially prior to Samis leading the NDP to victory for 15 years. Coupled with the fact that this election is the second since Cornwall's been merged with the rural area of Stormont, with Stormont, and with the former township of Charlottenburg (I apologize if that's misspelled.) and is the first election in the post-Cleary era, I don't see how the Liberals can hold on here.For reference, Cleary opposes same-sex marriage. (He made a statement to that effect on Variety 104 sometime during 2002.) I have no idea how Brownell (or any of the other candidates for that matter) feels about the issue, and quite frankly my dears, I don't give a damn. It's a federal issue being hijacked into this election by the Tories to get the socially conservative vote out, and I don't like it one bit! I reiterate, my riding will go Tory, even though I expect the Liberals to win provincially, and I'll just have to live with it.
	20/09/03	Slippy Slider Email:
John Cleary knew what the formula for a Liberal victory was in his riding. Cleary would win the urban Cornwall so big that it would overcome the beating he would take in the rural part of the riding. Jim Brownwell is nowhere near as popular as Cleary in Cornwall and will not win as big there. Then with the same sex marriage issue dominating the rural part of the riding, Brownwell will take a beating worse than Cleary did. What I'm saying is that Todd Lalonde will do better in Cornwall and win every rural poll in the riding. That's the formula for a Tory victory in this riding.
	13/09/03	lillybelle Email:
At midway point in this election Todd Lalonde is set to win. Dundas Tories are working at fever pitch to pull every vote they can out of this fiercely conservative county. They will take every poll in Dundas and most in the north end of Stormont. Look at the poll results for 1999 - nothing will change there. Liberal tradition and party loyalty in Cornwall is not nearly as solid as it is in Conservative Dundas. If street talk and the sign war is any indication, Cornwall has once again decided to support the man not the party. Blue prevails with at best a handful of Liberal lawn signs in the city. Most telling of course is the tepid interest in the campaign in South Stormont. The lack of speculation and rhetoric in Brownell’s own turf would have one wonder if the writ had ever been dropped at all. The sign war there is equally lackluster. Eves came to town two days into the campaign and was greeted by 400 supporters. McGuinty made a low key stop at a small city health clinic on Friday. It was no doubt an opportunity to get a platform message across but did nothing to display or drum up Liberal support for the candidate. It’s pretty clear in SDC which way the wind is blowing.
	11/09/03	Fiddle Head Email:
I'm from eastern Ontario and I just discovered this site. I think it's amazing. I agree with many people that the contest in this riding is not a much fun as it was in 1999. No one knows the Grit or Tory candidates this year so what happens is voters vote the party rather than the local candidates. I see more Tory voters in this riding and if they come out to vote then Lalonde should beat Brownwell by 1000 votes.
	10/09/03	El Predicto Email:
There's a lot of good points made by people on what is going to happen in this riding. I think it's very simple. John Cleary just managed to win this riding for the Tories in 1999. Without Cleary, this is a Tory style, rural riding. With John riding into the sunset of retirement, the Tories will take this riding.
	10/09/03	Gerrard Email: qpinsider@hotmail.com
It's easy to see why this one is tough to call. 52% of the population lives in Tory-friendly rural parts of the riding and pretty much everyone else is in Cornwall. Brownell has the Cornwall vote sewn up and Dundas will gravitiate to Lalonde. Sumegi is a lightweight (he's only 23) and this riding's record on voting NDP speaks for itself. The wildcard here is Tom Manley. He's a farmer (though an organic one) a businessman (one of the inventors of Sympatico) and a former army officer. His party supports tax breaks for business and strong support for public eduication on the other. The position on hydro is more-tory-than-tory with a demand for the removal of rate caps. Manley has some name recognition and writes an ag column in a paper for farmers. In other words, he's got some name recognition and is a candidate with appeal to both the Liberal AND the Conservative voters if he can get his message out. My feeling, though, is that he's going to draw mostly from the Liberals. Regardless of the fact that the Green platform is quite right wing in places, most people identify them with the left and if Manley comes on strong, the middle and left voters will go his way. In a riding where the last election was decided by 1.5% of voters, he's going to help turn this one blue. This riding could be one of the biggest stories of the election if the provincewide polls stay close down the stretch.
	/09/03	jj_frap Email:
Looks like the campaign is just starting to heat up, and things could really get hot locally. While this area trends Liberal both federally and provincially (as Cornwall is usually extremely red), a lot of interesting factors come into play here. Neither Villenuve nor Cleary -- the two most well-known provincial politicians in this area -- is running for his respective party, and the Liberals and PCs have done something very interesting in taking a candidate from each other's bases, which could lead to Cornwall being more Blue than usual, while South Stormont gets redder. I've walked around the South-Eastern "quadrant" of Cornwall quite a bit as a of late, and it seems solidly red so far, as usual. I'd have to see more upscale areas like Riverdale or Sunrise Acres to see how the trend is going through out the city, and I am also under the impression that Brownell's campaign has gotten out its signs and placards before Lalonde's. The NDP hasn't fielded a well-known candidate since 1990 (an election so dominated by the NDP that they even won quite a few Blue ridings...Although Noble Villeneuve won what was then SD&G quite easily...), a good 2 or 3 years before I even knew the name of our Premier. (The first provincial election I'm old enough to remember is 1995.) I'm not sure who to call it for at this point.
	12/08/03	Boots Email:
When John Cleary ran against Noble Villeneuve in 1999 it was a contest for the ages. I was not surprised that Cleary won but it was very close. Now it's 2003 and both John and Noble are gone. Neither Brownell or Lalonde can hold a candle to the John and Noble and the people of this riding are poorer for it. With two totally unknown candidates running for the first time, I think it's likely that people here will instead just vote along party lines. That give Lalonde the advantage because this riding tends to be more right wing leaning than left. So I'll go on record saying that Lalonde will beat Brownwell but it won't be as good as the great election campaign of 1999.
	01/08/03	Cougar Email:
Health minister Tony Clement was in Cornwall yesterday to announce millions for the hospital there. Cornwall was the key to Cleary holding the riding in 1999 and now the Tories are pulling out all the stops to make sure Todd Lalonde takes the city this time. Brownell doesn't have the background in Cornwall to get the same kind of support Cleary did. The Tories smell victory here and that's why so many cabinet ministers come to town while Dalton McGuinty stays far away from this riding.
	24/07/03	Call Me Shades Email:
The Happy Warrior misses the point by a mile. John Cleary is one of the worst public speakers there is and he held this seat forever. So don't tell me that Brownell is going to win because he's a better speaker than Lalonde is. The key to this riding is that when you look at the demographics, this riding looks just like the rest of the Tory held seats in Eastern Ontario. It was all the Cleary could do to hold on to his seat in 1999 and without his very high personal popularity, voters will be voting the party instead of the local candidate. For that reason alone, Lalonde is going to wind up winning over Brownell.
	19/07/03	happy warrior Email:
Happy camper should stick to camping if he thinks that Tod Lalonde can win. Any person in attendance at the tory nomination convention will tell you that had Savard been the candidate the tories would stand a better chance. Jim Brownell is a far better public speaker and a far harder worker than his tory opponent. The Liberal machine is far better organised this time around than when they defeated a cabinet minister last election. The PC will outspend the liberal as they traditionaly due But tireless Jim Brownell will be elected on eday.
	18/07/03	The Brain Email:
John Cleary won this race in 1999 because he had the best organization on the ground. The Tories seemed to have learned a lesson from the last campaign and have put together one of the better teams in eastern Ontario. This puts Todd Lalonde in the drivers seat when it comes to winning this riding. By now it's clear that Brownell doesn't have much of a campaign team that's ready to go out and win this election. Lalonde and his team will win because they're better than the Liberals here.
	16/07/03	Happy Camper Email:
I have nothing against Jim Brownell but he honestly doesn't have the slightest hope of beating Todd Lalonde. Lalonde not only has the family name going for him. Todd has the better organization, more money and is a much better communicator than Brownell is. Lalonde is going to represent this riding at least as long as John Cleary did.
	12/07/03	THE SOURCE Email:
We must remember this riding has been everything the last 30 years,every party has been represented here.Lalonde would be the frontrunner with his youth and family being so known. The expience he brings from growing up in a municipal household to the expience of working with provincial politics since the age of 8. He already has shown he can work, lobby queens park,just look at the attention this riding is recieving,never seen here before from any party this many cabinet ministers including the Premier visiting. Lalonde is educated,expienced within union and management,he has alot to offer the riding.Lets face it,he has youth and energy on his side. ELECTION NIGHT,LALONDE will lead start to finish.
	12/07/03	L. MacDonald Email:
The Tories would like to think that they have a chance at winning this riding in the next election because their candidate is from the city and the liberal candidate is from the township of South Stormont. It should be pointed out that the Liberal candidate spent most of his teaching years in Cornwall, and because of his township proximity he his well known in the city. It should be pointed out that the Tory candidate lost the only election he ever ran that of seperate school trustee despite the Lalonde name. This battle will be about replacing a tired goverment trying to buy its way back into office. In a ridng such as this experience has demonstrated that that these electors cannot be bought witn their own money. Jim Brownell will easely win this one for the Liberals and bring about true change at Qweens Park.
	11/07/03	Monkey Email:
Both C Marion and Speak Easy make good arguements for why their candidate will win this riding. I have to side with Speak Easy. Without John Cleary, this riding is too small town and too rural for the Liberals to win it. I just don't see an issue there for the Liberal candidate Jim Bronwell to use to take this riding. Stormont-Dundas-Charlottenburgh could end up being as close as Prince Edward Hastings was in 1999 but I think Todd Lalonde will pick up this riding for the Tories.
	08/07/03	C. Marion Email:
The Tories who were close last election believe that with the incumbent retiring they have a chance at this riding. Unfortunetly for them Jim Brownell the Liberal candidate will destroy these hopes. With the city of Cornwall Liberal base which as elected more liberal than Tories and Jim Brownell rural roots the Liberals will increase their vote in Stormont Dundas and Charlotenburg and easely keep this riding with the Liberals. This is one riding the PC cannot buy the defeat of Noble Villeneuve in the last election is proof of that, in the end the majority of the electorate will vote for a change of goverment.
	08/07/03	Speak Easy Email:
The previous Liberal poster points out the formula for a Tory victory in this riding. Jim Brownell comes from the rural part of the riding that didn't even vote for the much respected John Cleary last time. Now that Brownell is carrying the Liberal colours, his support in the rural areas will drop. Then you have the urban part of the riding that voted heavily for Cleary in 1999 because they knew him. These same voters don't know Brownell and won't be giving him the same level of support as Cleary got. Todd Lalonde does have the family name everyone knows. He is well known in Corwall and will pick up the Tory vote total from last time. Lalonde is not as well known in the rural areas but people there vote Tory and will vote for him. For those reasons, Lalonde will beat Brownell by at least 2000 votes.
	04/07/03	Email:
I'm amazed that anyone would think the Tories are going to take Stormont, Dundas and Charlottenburgh this time around.To begin with you are right when you say it was a John Cleary riding before but you are wrong when you suggest the Tory and Liberal candidates are unknowns. The Liberal candidate, Jim Brownell has been in rural politics forever and will take the liberal rural vote hands down. Todd Lalonde is a nice guy but he is not nearly as well known as his father and brother. The best he can expect is those Tories who wouldn't vote any other way even even if their lives depended on it. Couple all of this with the fact that the provincial Tories are trailing so far behind they don't stand a chance of keeping power and mathematics alone shows that Brownell will win this riding by a landslide. Stand by your man to the end but PLEASE, you've got to accept the fact.
	27/06/03	Ringleader Sally Email:
Here we have two pretty much unknown candidates for the Liberals and the Conservatives. Lalonde has the better chance of winning this for the Conservatives because this riding is just too rural for Brownell to collect up enough votes to win it. I don't thinks the Liberals are going to break through in rural Ontario in 2003.
	02/06/03	Coach Email:
This was a John Cleary riding, not a Liberal riding. This time the Conservatives have the advantage. Todd Lalonde is much better known than Jim Brownell and in this type of riding, that gives Lalonde a big edge. This riding will be in the Conservative camp on election night.
	21/05/03	Grizz Email:
All sitting Liberals will keep their seats (well most anyways) and this is one that will stay red. The Torys are sliding in the polls, people want a change in government. The Torys fared reasonably well here in 99 but times have changed and now the Liberals will win by a healthy margin.
	20/05/03	WD Email:
The Green Party? Manley is dreaming in technicolour. While certainly stronger than most GPO candidates (and support for the party is strongest in Eastern Ontario) Manley isn't going to win over the Liberals, though he will certainly beat the NDP. Prediction: Liberals 45%, PCs 40% Greens 10% NDP 5%
	15/04/03	Tom Manley Email:
As far as I can see, the Liberals, PCs and the NDP candidates are all waiting for their respective parties to do the talking for them. Locally, the candidates have been pretty quiet. On the other hand, the Greens are really moving, good press coverage, local action. They had a good exhibit in Morrisburg last weekend.
	29/03/03	ARL Email:
The Tories will be too busy trying to hold on to the seats they already have to be able to pour resources into winning any new ridings. This riding should stay Liberal unless the Tories undergo a miraculous province-wide recovery.
	26/03/03	THE GAMBLER Email:
The Gambler is putting his money on Todd Lalonde to win Stormont-Dundas-Charlottenburgh. PC Lalonde and LIB Bromwell are both rookies this time out and this will be a close one. Lalonde has the advantage because he has a lot of cabinet ministers in his corner helping him out. This will be too much for Bromwell and Lalonde will cross the finish line first.
	21/03/03	lillybelle Email:
It may well be a squeaker. But definitely and defiantly a win for the Tories. Changes in electoral boundaries were a deciding factor in 1999. It was the first election for a riding created from a rural Conservative stronghold and a Liberal-leaning urban centre. A face-off of two long- standing incumbents. The former riding of Stormont Dundas and Glengarry was a traditional Tory stronghold, electing a Conservative member for more than half a century. However, the former Cornwall riding, with its Liberal leanings has in fact elected members from three provincial parties in previous elections. While it's fair to say Queens Park wants this riding back, they can't want it back a fraction as much as the still bruised rural Tories and their urban supporters. After four years, Conservatives in SDC are in a much better position to pull off a win in this riding. They have tasted defeat. Only a win will get that bitter taste out of their months. Liberal ties in the city of Cornwall can, and have been, severed by support for "the man" not the party . And unlike the Liberals, the youthful and energetic Tory candidate hails from a highly visible and established city family. Rural Tories will not be taking anything for granted this time around. Urban Conservatives are motivated by opportunities they may not have had in the former Cornwall riding. What the city voter decides to do remains to be seen. But the odds are clearly in favour of the Conservatives.
	26/02/03	El Predicto Email:
There were three Tory cabinet ministers in Corwall this week as they throw everything but the kitchen sink into this riding to take it back. The Tories obviously have polling information showing they've got a shot at taking this riding and I believe they will win here. Mark this one down for the Tories.
	25/02/03	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
John Cleary isn't running again...but neither is Noble Villeneuve; i.e. we've gone from an incumbent battle to no incumbents at all, so it's still sort of even steven, if more loosely so. Still, the unlikely (and little-noted) federal result in 2000, with the second highest Alliance % in Ontario (!), has got to cause some shivering in the anti-Tory ranks...
	14/02/03	El Predicto Email:
The Liberals don't have John Cleary who barely hung on to this seat last time. The key to Cleary's victory last time was that he won the urban polls in the riding by a large margain and then held on through the heavy losses in the rural areas. The urban vote was enough to offset the rural one and Cleary won. The Tories see this and are pouring millions of dollars into Corwall this winter. Last week health minister Clement was in the town to give $1.3 million dollars to the local hospital. That money will buy votes in Cornwall. This is another riding where the federal Liberal gun registry will hurt the provincial grits a lot. Mark this riding down for the Tories.
	01/01/03	GK Email:
This is the most likely seat for a Liberal loss in the whole province. Nevertheless, it is not a safe bet. It went to the Liberals strictly because of stragetic voting last time. The Canadian Alliance had a strong showing here in 2000. That might indicate that the rural area near Ottawa is going blue.
	18/11/02	A.D Email:
WHat lead to the very close results last election was that the NDP ran a very good campaign and did fairly well for a mixed riding in Eastern Ontario, i should know i worked on her campaign!!!. The last NDP Candidate was Maggie MacDonald, she was by-far the most eloquant and most well like of all the candidates. unfortunatle in this area she would have needed to be a liberal to win!!!! this time around it will be different, unless the NDP can get another strong young and well-known candidate, even then they might just let the tories win by taking more votes from the Grits. But it will be a race between the Grits and the Tories. i put my money on the Grits, they do well in this area especially in the city and with the francophones and with the old money. They have more momentum than the torries. Still a toss-up!!!
	12/11/02	S. Webb Email:
This riding will be too close to call. Last time, Cleary won by winning Cornwall. Noble swept the rural areas. If the PC's can even hold their own in Cornwall, it should give them the seat.
	07/11/02	Andrew Cox Email: andrewcox101@hotmail.com
Razor thin 640 vote margin in 1999, the veterans of that clash of the titans are both gone from politics. PC Nobel Villeneuve sadly died. Grit John Cleary retired. That means a whole new race in 2003. Nobody knows what will happen. Grits could win. Tories could win. The PC nominee is no Villeneuve. The Grit won't be a Cleary. My gut says Tory. My head says Liberal. The race will be too close to call until election day. Editor's Note (10/11/02): Noble Villeneuve suffered a stroke, but is still alive.
	18/10/02	Burke Email:
This riding will be a close call in this election. John Cleary is not seeking re-election and the Liberals barely held onto this riding in the last election. Like Prince-Edward-Hastings, this riding has an urban centre (Cornwall) that votes Liberal and a Tory rural fringe. This is a must hold for the Liberals if they intend to form a government and a must gain for the Tories if the hope to hold onto power.

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