Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Stoney Creek

Last Update:
9:26 PM 30/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
5:04 PM 06/09/2003

Political Profile:

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Liberal Party:
Jennifer Mossop
Progressive Conservative:
Brad Clark
New Democratic Party:
Lorrie McKibbon
Green Party:
Richard Safka

Brad Clark

Federal MP:
Tony Valeri

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

21462 45.56%

18840 39.99%

4922 10.45%

1206 2.56%

350 0.74%

330 0.7%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality10 796
Tony Valeri
24 150 51.1%
Doug Conley
13 354 28.2%
Grant Howell
6 102 12.9%
Mark Davies
3 083 6.5%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation66.20%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born75.76%
Ontario Born69.37%
Visible Minority4.56%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$170868

College/Trade School25990

Authorized by the CFO for the Stoney Creek Provincial NDP Association
30/09/03 Lucky 100
Brad Clark came in on the Tory wave in 1999 yet only won by 2800 votes against an unknown Liberal candidate. This time it's the Liberals that have the wave and they have a star candidate in Jennifer Mossop. Mossop has quickly become the most popular provincial politician in the Hamilton region and will win Stoney Creek by one of the bigger margins in this area of Ontario.
30/09/03 WDR
This riding is getting really intriguing. The Hamilton Spectator came out today endorsing the Liberals Provincially (Heck, they are now owned by the Star) but Brad Clark locally. He skipped the Cable TV debate due to illness and his signs are increasing on City property, but decreasing on lawns. (One neighbour switched his to a Mossop sign last week!) Brad's a popuolar guy, but I think his invisiblilty lately (due to bronchitis) is really going to hurt him.
29/09/03 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
I'm not sure what poll the previous poster is talking about -- a Compas poll released on Monday shows the Liberals ahead by 50%-31%. Even if it were 45%-35%, however, Stoney Creek would be one of the ridings to make the switch.
29/09/03 JS
Wake up, folks. The latest polls released today (Monday) show the Liberals at 45%, which roughly translates into 55-57 seats. If you grant the NDP ten, that leaves a minimum of 36-38 seats for the Tories. I've said it for weeks -- Clark is going to hold his seat. Combine the latest poll results with the newspaper reports that the Dalton bus is going to start hitting ridings where they never thought they had a chance -- ridings held by Ministers such as Flaherty, Klees and Clark -- it shows that the Libs were never serious about taking this riding in the first place. Even the folks in Mossop's campaign office talk about Clark's credibility, his name recognition, and how much work they have left to do -- all of which point to a Clark victory in Stoney Creek. Time to change this one to a Tory hold.
29/09/03 justin
after sitting on the sidelines, refusing to take a side and instead, offering the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates and parties, I have decided to call this one for the Liberals. First let me tell you my bias, I am a life-long liberal party supporter who has gone door-to-door in this campaign. My reasons for the Liberal prediction: VERY POSITIVE response to Jennifer at the door. Even in households with PC Signs on the lawn, there are voters who like her and say that they will vote for her. PC SIGNS doesn't mean PC voters. At least half of the households I went to with PC signs, indicated to me that they were undecided. This indicates that they once were PC at the beginning of the campaign but now have changed their viewpoint. STONEY CREEK is reflective of the province (urban/rural, ethnic/non-ethnic mix). As goes the province, so goes the riding. Driving through tory strongholds such as old Stoney Creek (the old town) and Grimsby, I see fewer PC signs than in 1999, but more Liberal signs, even though Mossop has had signs out for only two weeks. I did not go to Glanbrook, however. The Mossop campaign has loads of volunteers; they are energised and are working this riding hard. Brad Clark is perceived as an arrogant bully when he speaks. The "I know best attitude", will help to sink him. I know people who attend the same Church as him who can't stand that attitude of his. As for the "endorsements" in his ad last week in the Stoney Creek News: these won't save him. Maybe one of them lives in the riding. One of them is a friend from high school. As for the Stoney Creek News articles: they are less happy with Clark than in 1999. Brad has received both good and bad coverage from the paper. If anything, this more neutral approach to Brad reflects the riding's more cautious approach to him and his party. My first campaign was in the former Wentworth-East riding (Stoney Creek, East Hamilton and Glanbrook) in 1987. We swept the riding. I experienced the hatred of Peterson in 1990, the love-in of Harris in 1995 and the "go steady with Mike" in 1999. Next to 1987, the voters have never been as enthusiastically supportive at the door. There are far fewer people at the door who argue in favour of PC policies than in 1999. We came very close in 1999 and lost Stoney Creek Mountain, rural Stoney Creek and Grimsby and Glanbrook. This time, we will sweep East Hamilton, all of Stoney Creek Mountain and the ethnic heart of the lower city. We will either be ahead by 1-2% in Grimsby or be behind by that much. We will pull to single digits in the Old town. We will be 5-6% behind Brad in Glanbrook. Simply put, Brad is going down.
28/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
Considering the massive red wave accross the province, this one can't really stay Tory. Mossop is too strong of a candidate and will Clark will hold the Liberal shift to less than average it will be nowhere in the vicinity of enough. Also, from what I gather from my Tory contacts they are putting all Hamilton-area resources into trying to save Tim Hudak.
28/09/03 Billy G.
Email: thirteeninkblots@hotmail.com
Here's a classic case of the Liberals believe their own hype a little too much. The race is going to be close, but Mossop may in fact edge out Clark. Clark's office has been much quieter than early on in the campaign, and Mossop has been puttering around in her Winnebago. Stoney Creek is overwhelming Liberal federally, and many of those votes are transferring to this election. Its no secret that Mossop has been outclassed by her opponents in the debates on Cable 14 and at Orchard Park, and apparently, it has no bearing on people's decision. Mossop by 5-8%.
27/09/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
New seat projections based on the latest polls show 72 Liberals,22 Tories and 9 NDP. This riding will be firmly on the Govt side in a landslide of Bilical proportions...Time to start declaring the Liberal seats beginning with Clark and checking off other Cabinet Ministers going down like Ecker, Whitmer, Young, oru friend in Markham and the list goes on and on with a very few safe seats left for the Tories...This discrediting is teu regime change with the voters sweeping clean for the most part
27/09/03 jerr
This will be a Liberal gain. The latest polls show that the Tories are tanking and this was one of the closer 905 ridings in the last election. I predict that the Liberal support will easily overwhelm the reduced Tory support. Start updating your resume Brad!
27/09/03 Rubber Necker
This is not a race any more, it's all over in Stoney Creek. Brad Clark has been too ill to put up any kind of fight against the Mossop campaign, not that I think it would matter. The Liberals are on a roll right now and there will be lots of Tory cabinet ministers who will go down to defeat. Clark will be one of them. What really makes this no contest is the personal popularity that Jennifer Mossop has always enjoyed in our community. In Stoney Creek the people want to change this government and they have a high profile person like Mossop to vote for. That combination will hand Stoney Creek to the Liberals. Nobody pays any attention to what the Stoney Creek News says.
Holy mossop signs in grimsby. i havent seen a lot of clark signs compared to mossop.
25/09/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
The Clark campaign knows there is an impending Liberal landslide.. The thing with landslides is some people are elected or are defeated who should never have gone down.. This is recognized by members of the Clark team and they know their man could easily be a victim of the impending Liberal landslide. This was a common expressed thought within the Clark campaign.. BTW it is also quite true..
25/09/03 WDR
I think this riding is going to be closer than most people think. While I still believe Jennifer is going to win, it is going to be extremely close. Brad just released his latest campaign brochure (as he has been too ill to go doorknocking lately) with many prominent people (Libs included) endorsing him. In addition, the local newspaper's only columnist endorses Brad, the person, while not being too happy with his party. This certainly is the best race to watch in this area though.
25/09/03 Red October
Brad Clark was on television last night trying to explain why he's been ducking all candidates meetings. Clark claims he's got health problems but he looks like a politician who knows he can't win. Jennifer Mossop had Stoney Creek the day she announced she would be the Liberal candidate.
24/09/03 justin
Ontario reflects Stoney Creek??? huh? I don't see how people watch how Stoney Creek goes and then makes a decision...it is the other way around (because of the rural/urban split here, etc). Just over half of the Riding is made up of the former city of Stoney Creek. The ethnic heart in the lower part of the City tends to vote Liberal, the "Old Town" and the Fruitland to Winona Belt is Tory. The Upper Stoney Creek Urban Part is a swing area and the Upper Stoney Creek Rural part tends to be PC. The South-East Portion of Hamilton (included in the riding), is solidly Liberal (except for a few portions of this area). This area makes up about 20% of the riding. Grimsby is a staunch Tory heartland (although the new housing development there may change that, who knows?). This area is almost 20% of the riding. Glannbrook is another strong Tory land. It has approximately 10% of the riding.
Clark's problems are these:
*The PC's are in free fall in Stoney Creek Riding and the Province
*Mossop is well known in both the Liberal and PC areas, so he doesn't have an advantage over name recognition.
*You can see that there is momentum in the Liberal Campaign in Stoney Creek.
*The true blue voters might just sit this one out and wait for Ernie to be replaced.
*He has abandoned the SCRAP and anti-amalgamation people; two groups that helped him immensely in his nomination battle last time
Mossop's Problems are these:
*Some ethnic Liberals are mad about same sex marriage and might not show up
*She has come in late in the campaign. Is there enough time to identify the vote?
*Some think a young mother shouldn't be on the campaign trail
*The Family Coalition Party took 2% last time. There is no FCP candidate and so these votes (pro-religious school tax break and anti-same sex marriage) may go to Clark.
All in all, Mossop is catching up and Clark is running scared.
24/09/03 AL
Brad Clark is a very respected member of the cabinet. Combine that with an affulent town and strong PC bace, and Brad Clark will hold. He is the only PC in Hamilton with a strong chance to be an MPP in the next government, and the opposition against him is feverishly weak. Brad Clark, despite severe illness, will be the MPP for Stoney Creek after Oct 2.
24/09/03 JS
I don't know who Michael Ensley thinks he talked to, or what "Tory HQ" he thinks he visited, but it certainly wasn't anybody at the Clark campaign. Clark and his volunteers are pumped because of the fantastic support they've been getting all over the entire riding. Look at the September 24 edition of the Stoney Creek News -- Mark Cripps' said that in last week's debate, not only did Mossop not know the details on the local issues -- which is to be expected, given that she lives in Missisauga -- but that she didn't even know her own platform or existing legislation in the province. She came to the race late, she is obviously ill-prepared, and she simply doesn't have what it takes to beat Clark. When you combine Mossop's weaknesses with the full-page ad of endorsements the Clark team ran in the paper -- including support from health care leaders, business executives, educators, Liberals, and even Mossop's old boss as CH TV, that's further evidence of his support in the community. Finally, Carmen D'Angelo wrote a very compelling article to say that if in fact Hamilton is going to be painted Liberal red, then you need a strong voice in opposition, or you get the disgraceful situation we currently have in Ottawa -- a government that is indifferent, ineffectual, and unresponsive, and is allowed to get away with it since there's nobody to keep them in line. D'Angelo has cast his vote behind Clark, and urged others to do the same, not only to have that "strong voice" in opposition, but also because Clark has earned his seat and deserves to be sent back to Queen's Park for another four years. Take it to the bank on this one -- whatever happens elsewhere in the province, come October 3, Clark is going to be the MPP for Stoney Creek, Grimsby and Glanbrook.
24/09/03 The Peanutbutter Kid
Judging by the e-mails I read about my riding, I think I'm the only person who lives in Stoney Creek to send in a comment. No one who lives here could ever believe that the McKibbon could finish second. The NDP hardly exist in Stoney Creek and might not finish ahead of the Green Party. No one I know has seen McKibbon knocking on doors or has received any information about the NDP. Brad Clark and his team put up a lot of lawn signs the first week of the campaign but I haven't seen any new signs go up in the last two weeks. In fact, Clark's campaign was criticized in the Stoney Creek news for breaking the city sign laws and putting his signs on public land. Clark also didn't show up at the all candidates debate that was on cable television. Jennifer Mossop signs started popping up about a week ago and now they're everywhere. She easily has a 2 to 1 lead in signs over Clark. I've seen two brochures from the Liberals at my door and Mossop has been in the newspaper almost every second day. She's getting more media than Clark who's a cabinet minister. Anyone who lives in Stoney Creek will tell you that this riding has made up it's mind and that Mossop will be the next MPP. I know this is true because I live here.
23/09/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
Visited Tory HQ.. They are down and now think Brad Clark is going down in the impending Liberal sweep. This seat can be declared for the Liberals with the Tories already knowing it..
23/09/03 Scoop Jackson
My Tory contacts tell me that the amalgamation issue is killing Brad Clark in Stoney Creek. People in Stoney Creek are organizing to hold a referendum on the mega city. This campaign is growing very large and this group of people hold Clark responsible for the Tories forcing the amalgamation on them. The Mossop campaign is cashing in on this issue and it's putting her in the position to take Stoney Creek. Clark's poor health has also become an issue for the Tories. He's been ill with a bad cold for most of the writ period and hasn't done much campaigning. The Liberals I talk to are convinced that Stoney Creek will be there's.
22/09/03 Nick
Email: spamgoeshere@cogeco.ca
I believe everyone here is forgetting that the majority of the Stoney Creek riding is also shared with Grimsby and rural Glanbrook Township. Grimsby is one of the most afluent towns on this side of Lake Ontario. While one could say that the race between Clark and Mossop is close in Stoney Creek itself, Grimsby and the rural areas will tip it over the edge for Clark.
22/09/03 justin
in response to Craig....I can understand if you think Brad is going to win, but on what planet are you on if you think the NDP will be second.....you definitely have not been in Stoney Creek lately. Jennifer Mossop has caught up magnificantly in the past two weeks; the campaign team is energised. Now that the Feds are not focused on the leadership vote, there will be even more additions to the team. She is well known and well received at the door. I live in a rural section of the riding (and a weak Liberal area of the riding). Even here, I am seeing more Liberal signs than ever before - even at the houses of staunch conservatives. Brad is running scared...his debates with Mossop have him screaming and shouting down opponents. I admit that few people watch local cable TV, but the ones who do tend to be the older ladies living in the old town centre of Stoney Creek (who tend to be stauch PC). At this point, Brad make sure his PC heartland in Glanbrook, Grimsby and the rural and Mountain areas of Stoney Creek hold firm - if it doesn't, then he will be the former MPP for the riding. The race is too close to call, but all signs point to the Liberals with all the momentum.
22/09/03 JS
Email: jillskor@hotmail.com
There's lots of talk about how Stoney Creek always follows the direction of the province, but you folks have it backwards: Stoney Creek is a carefully watched riding because it's population is a microcosm of the province at large -- a mix of urban and rural. The province usually reflects Stoney Creek, NOT the other way around. Having said that, it's not going to happen this time. While there may be an appetite for the Liberals, going door-to-door in the riding tells you that the word on the street about Mossop isn't positive. People are asking questions like "Why would we want someone from Mississauga to represent us?" and "She doesn't have any real experience, does she?" There's even a large segment of the ethnic community that is clucking their tongues about her even attempting to run for office with a four-month old at home. Maybe that's an unfair assumption, but it doesn't excuse the fact that some voters think that way. Despite of what may be going on elsewhere in the province, Clark is going to win this seat. He's just too up-to-date on the issues, and has done too much for both his riding and Hamilton in general, to lose this seat to an inexperienced newbie like Mossop.
22/09/03 RL
Brad Clark is well like. He is a prominent member of the Eves team. The organization of his campaign seems very organized and I think it outmatches the Liberals. The difference in these close battles is always campaign organization and who can get their people to the polls on election day. My bet is on the Conservatives in this one.
23/09/03 Gunboat Diplomacy
The numbers Craig throws out make no sense at all if you look at the polls. All the polls I've seen show that Liberals with a large lead in the Hamilton-Niagara region. The last poll had the Liberals at 51 per cent and the Tories at 26 per cent. Stoney Creek is not an isolated island of a riding. In fact it's right in the middle of the Hamilton-Niagara region. Brad Clark is not remarkable enough by any means to be have the support of 43 per cent when his party is at 26. This is not logical. Neither is the idea that the NDP could possibly get 28 per cent when they're at 18 for the Hamilton-Niagara region. Lorie Mckibbon will be lucky to match her party level of support. Then there's the most illogical number of all with Craig saying Jennifer Mossop will only get 24 per cent. That would mean Mossop would have to run at less than half the support her party has in the regional poll. This is nuts. Looking at the real numbers it is very clear that Mossop win Stoney Creek with Clark way back in the distance and the McKibbon below 18 per cent.
20/09/03 Craig
I've decided to call this riding a Brad Clark hold, even though few others share my thoughts and they are falling fast in the polls. Jennifer Mossop, while she has name recognition, has absolutely no experience in politics, and I think the voters will question if she is capable of being an MPP. Celebrity candidates almost always fare poorly in politics, and this will be no exception. The Liberals will sweep the rest of Hamilton but this riding will stay Tory. The NDP have not really left the ground, although I think some left-leaning Liberals will vote for McKibbon, it is not enough to remain in contention. Overall, I think this riding will send a chill down the spine of many outside the area. Current prediction: Clark 43%, McKibbon 28%, Mossop 24%, Safka 4%, others 1%.
20/09/03 Beans
It was a story in the Hamilton Spectator that convinced me that the Liberals would win Stoney Creek. The Spectator did a poll and found that seventy-one per cent of people in the region thought it was time for a change in the provincial government. That is a very high number indeed. The large majority of Stoney Creek voters who want to change the government now have television star Jennifer Mossop to vote for and that's what they are going to do by the thousands. Brad Clark did pretty well for himself in his four years at Queen's Park but he will never be able to go against the tide in this riding. Mossop is going to have a massive victory.
19/09/03 dot commie 6-EMAIL_NO = selected
Email: eilersc@mcmaster.ca
It strikes me that the interesting thing about Stoney Creek is how close its vote was last time to the provincial vote: 45% PC, 39% Liberal. This leads me the the proposition that the party the wins the popular vote province-wide on election day will take Stoney Creek. The polls at the moment suggest a Liberal lead. Unless something changes between now an election day--which is definitely possible--I think that Stoney Creek will go Liberal.
19/09/03 s3an
WDR must be from Mississauga himself! if he lived in this riding he'd know that Brad Clark has brought 400 long term care beds, seen a huge increase to both the Niagara and Hamilton school board budgets. Grimsby has been given the go ahead for a new hospital. Brad Clark has been very visible in the riding - in person, not just on TV. Mossup may think being on TV counts; it does for recognition, but people bristle when they think she assumes that counts for being active in or part of the community. Stoney Creek will vote for Brad Clark by a wider margin than '99.
17/09/03 WDR
If you go by the signs in the riding, Brad will win, but if you talk to the people, there is a lot of frustration with Brad for his invisibility in the riding and also his lack of doing anything here. (He deflects every issue to local politicians.) He has been a bit of a nothing for the people. J.Mo. (as the paper calls her) has instant name recognition and despite living in Mississauga, is very popular. It is interesting to note, Brad admits to being a former Liberal and Jennifer admits to being a former P.C. youth worker. It's hard to know where to stand in Stoney Creek. I call it Mossop but a close win.
17/09/03 JS
I think everyone is getting ahead of themselves in declaring Mossop a shoo-in. Did anyone see the debate on Cogeco last night? It was clear from their answers that there are a number of issues that both Mossop and McKibbon are completely unfamiliar with. Case in point is Park School -- both the NDP and Liberal candidates used the opportunity to rail against the Tory private school credit. The only problem with that is that Park School is a PUBLIC school, not private. Mossop came off as wooden and unfeeling -- a natural pose when you're an anchor, but not nearly so helpful when you're a candidate. Do I think the riding will be close? Absolutely. Do I think Mossop has what it takes to beat Clark, a long-time advocate of both Stoney Creek and greater Hamilton, and who has shown his advocacy through real dollars and real development? No, I don't. Clark will keep this seat.
16/09/03 The Big Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
With Mossop's popularity and the rise of Liberal fortunes to the expense of the Tory's will ensure a Liberal victory in Stoney Creek.
11/09/03 Ringleader Sally
I need to change my prediction for Stoney Creek. When it was Tony Magnini running for the Liberals I said this was an easy win for Brad Clark. Now it's a whole new situation with Jennifer Mossop running for the Liberals. Brad Clark is not going to be able to take Jennifer on and get re-elected. She's too high profile and too popular and there's nothing Clark can do about it. You really need to change this call from the Tories to the Liberals right now.
12/09/03 Anne Schroder
Email: Anneschroder@aol.com
A real chance for women in politics with Jennifer Mossop. A star in every sense of the word. The Hamilton area has never been afraid to elect effective women take a look at Sheila. Brad Clark has to wear all the bad labour relations and dangerous descisions made by the Tories. This one is a win for women and for the Liberal party.
10/09/03 Call Me Shades
Whoa Nelly! I think you jumped the gun giving this riding to the Tories. I know it looked bad for the Liberals when Magnini was busted but they've turned a disaster to Liberal advantage with Jennifer Mossop. Everyone remembers Jennifer from her days at the CH anchor desk. Besides, with no political record, what can Brad Clark do to attack Jennifer? It's still early enough in the campaign for this website to switch ridings from one party to another. Brad Clark can't stand up to the mega wave of support that Jennifer is going to get. Stoney Creek is going Liberal no doubt about it.
08/09/03 Mambo King
Email: Everybody Mambo!
Stoney Creek really needs to be changed from a Tory riding on this site. I wouldn't waste my time marking it back at too close to call. I'd just switch it to Liberal. Jennifer Mossop is one of the most popular people in Hamilton. Everybody read her column in the Spectator about having a baby this year and she can't walk down the street without signing autographs. Brad Clark doesn't have any chance facing Mossop. Stoney Creek and Hamilton West will both be Liberal this fall as they paint Hamilton red.
06/09/03 Scoop Jackson
My Liberal contacts tell me that they were not surprised when Tony Magnini was arrested and there were no tears for Tony who was throwing away any chance they had in Stoney Creek. I'm told that Jennifer Mossop was all set to take over from Tony whether he was charged with fraud or not. Since the big announcement that Mossop was now the Liberal candidate, she's become the most high profile politician in Hamilton and the Liberals couldn't be happier. The same can't be said for my Tory contacts. They thought Stoney Creek was safe and Clark could spend his time helping other Tory candidates in the area. Now Clark is locked down in his riding and has been forced to canvass more in the first week than he planned for the entire campaign. Tony Magnini could end up being responsible for a Liberal victory in Stoney Creek by getting himself in legal trouble. This is a strange business sometimes.
05/09/03 Reality Check
Nobody is in need of a consistant reality check more than craig. Craig knows nothing about Stoney Creek and demonstrates this very clearly giving the NDP 36 per cent of the vote. Look at the numbers from last time. The NDP got 10 per cent of the vote in 1999. Right now Hampton is running about 15 per cent in the polls. Yet according to Craig, an total unknown like McGibbon is going to draw 20 points higher than her party? That is not going to happen. McGibbon will be lucky to get her rebate from elections Ontario. That means she needs 15 per cent of the vote. What you need to know about Stoney Creek is as part of the Hamilton region, people there have never forgiven CHTV for letting Jennifer Mossop go a few years ago. This give Mossop a big emotional edge over the low key Clark. The Liberals now have a chance to sweep the Hamilton region with Mossop beating Clark in Stoney Creek and Judy Marsales winning Hamilton West. Brad Clark is finished.
04/09/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
Jennifer Mossop is a person of substance..She is well known in the riding..With the swing to the liberal party SC will join the Hamilton sweep for the Liberals...
04/09/03 Craig
I think this riding will stun everyone. Celebrity candidates almost always fare very poorly, and the choice of Jennifer Mossop will be a boon for both Brad Clark's Tory camp and Lorrie McKibbon's NDP camp. I think that the NDP will pick up much of the 1999 Liberal vote and the Tories should reclaim their 1999 votes that would have otherwise gone to the Liberals, making it a race between the Tories and NDP. The Liberals have to be scratching their heads here - they blew a golden opportunity to sweep Hamilton. Current prediction: Clark 39%, McKibbon 36%, Mossop 20%, Safka 3%, others 2% (but within the margin of error so it could swing either way).
04/09/03 Political Hack
Tony Magnini's resignation is the best thing that ever happened to the Liberals in Stoney Creek. The Liberals have pulled a star candidate out of the hat in television broadcaster, Jennifer Mossop. Since her announcement, Mossop has been the talk of the town. She's been on the front page of the Hamilton Spectator and was on province wide television with Dalton McGuinty at a rally in Hamilton last night. Let's make one thing very clear. The NDP are not on the map in Stoney Creek and won't get more than 10% of the vote. Instead of facing off against a total unknown Liberal candidate, Brad Clark is now in very big trouble with Mossop in the race. The Liberals are going to pick up Stoney Creek. Mark my words.
03/09/03 steve e
despite the fraud issue this may turn out to be a blessing for the Libs, my source tell me they are close to lining up former city councillor and mayoralty candidate Fred Eisenberger. If that happens libs have a great shot
03/09/03 Andrew Cox
Liberal pick up (maybe)... the addition of Jennifer Mossop changes the entire dynamic in this campaign. I'll take a leap and say that the Liberals will pick up this seat, unless their campaign melts down. Here's Henry Jacek's take on it in Today's Spectator: The move surprised McMaster political science professor Henry Jacek. "That will be a very fascinating, great race," he said, in part because the riding has large numbers of both Liberal and Conservative voters, so it is susceptible to party swings. Mossop allows McGuinty to field not only a female candidate but one with instant big-name recognition, Jacek said.
01/09/03 Peter Cassidy
With the resignation of Magnini the Liberals are tremendously weakened organizationally. All their signs have to be scrapped along with literature. It would take a week or more to find a candiate and organize a nomination meeting- which, if an election is called soon, would mean the Liberals go into an election without a candidate and have to scramble to get the aforementioned signs and lit ready and out. The NDP candiate Lorrie McKibbon,(see the ad above ) and her team have been working steadily almost a year now. They have distributed liteature and knocked on doors through a good chunk of the riding. She has spoken at a number of public meetings and has become known favourably to the voters, the pundits and the opinion makers.. ( the last editon of the Stoney Creek News, in a story on a Magnini launch, gave about as much time to Lorrie as Tonny. What may be even more important, there are hundreds of sign locations confirmed for Lorrie. IF the election is called soon, with the Liberals not ready, it will be clear from the start the race is between Lorrie for the NDP and Brad for the Tories.
28/08/03 justin
It's still too close to call but the resignation of Magnini due to allegations of fraud (see today's Hamilton Spectator), adds a new twist to the saga of Stoney Creek. My sources tell me that a few high profile candidates are interested in this swing riding. The fear of Eves being able to rise up in the polls has waned and therefore there are more interested candidates than this past spring when Magnini was chosen. Although this resignation may be seen as a set back for the libs, I think this is an opportunity for the Stoney Creek Liberals: they are able to rid themselves of a weak candidate who didn't make much of a splash with voters....if the liberals choose a good candidate soon....people won't even remember that Magnini was once the candidate.
28/08/03 Reality Check
The Hamilton Spectator reported today that Tony Magnini has resigned as the Liberal candidate in Stoney Creek. It seems Tony is facing a long list of fraud charges. Now the Liberals will have to struggle to find someone willing to put their name on the ballot at the last minute. That's not going to be good enough to beat a cabinet minister like Brad Clark. This one is over.
28/08/03 IanB
Tony Magnini quit as the Liberal candidate yesterday after being charged with defrauding Stoney Creek funeral homes where he works. Unless the Libs can come up with a top-notch candidate (which they haven't been able to do before) I think this one should be conceded to Clark.
23/07/03 Robert E.
Although I agree that Tony Magnini has been hard to find, he does have a campaign hq at Fiesta Mall. Interesting that any time there has been a local campaign story in the SCNews, Glanbrook Gazette or either Grimsby paper (with the exception of a visit that Magnini made a couple months ago to the West Lincoln Hospital where he asked the hospital CEO if it was possible to get some of the money for the hospital that the Ministry of Ed has promised the District School Board of Niagara for Park School or to repair another school to accept Park students - and this guy is a seperate school trustee!) no one from the Liberal campaign has returned calls to comment. Many may not think that the NDP's McKibbon has a chance, but I have at least seen stories and pictures about her quite regularly in the local papers.
22/07/03 Target
The Liberals aren't running a campaign in Stoney Creek. They don't have a campaign headquarters. There is no campaign team and they don't have any money. Their candidate Tony Magnini is never seen in public. He skipped all the events that politicians do like school graduations, Canada Day events and a number of other festivals in the riding. There is a lot of talk that Magnini has resigned as the Liberal candidate. Brad Clark is going to win his riding again.
12/07/03 Tre Cool
Brad Clark has very good timing. The strongest part of his riding is the Grimsby end and there's been a lot of growth there. Lot's over very expensive homes have been built. The weaker part of the riding for Clark is the Stoney Creek end but that is changing. There are a lot of new people in the west end of the riding who have moved in since 1999. Clark has worked the riding hard and has contacted many the new voters in the riding so they know who he is now. Clark will win again because of a combination of luck and hard work.
08/07/03 Speak Easy
I don't know what province NDP supporter Gerald Wallace lives in but it's not Ontario. People stopped caring about Howard Hampton's only issue when the government capped their hydro bills. As long as there are no major blackouts this summer, Howie's hydro issue is dead. As far as McKibbon winning a riding like Stoney Creek. Don't make me laugh. Richard Safka and the Green Party should finish ahead of McKibbon. The Liberals tried to find a star candidate and ended up with Tony Magnini. All of this lead to the conclusion that Brad Clark will win this with no problems.
04/07/03 Piggly Wiggly
The Liberals in Stoney Creek are living in the past trying to run a Italian unknown and hoping to win. The first generation Italians in Stoney Creek are fewer than there was last time. The second generation Italians have no historic ties to the Liberals and will reflect the vote of the rest of the population. The Liberals needed a star candidate to take on Brad Clark and didn't find one. Clark is a sure thing to be re-elected.
04/07/03 Gerald Wallace
McKibbon has a good chance due to her emphasis on the public dissent to the Hydro Bill and her slowly growing riding supporters. It's a chance and it looks like Stoney Creek might suprise us.
27/06/03 Ringleader Sally
Brad Clark has become one of the best cabinet ministers the Tories have. Clark is going to have a long and very successful political career ahead of him. For Clark, beating Tony Magnini is going to be pretty easy. Magnini just isn't in the same league as the Clark and voters will see it. Clark is going to take Stoney Creek by even a bigger margin this time.
03/06/03 IanB
It's irrelevant how high the Italian population is in Stoney Creek (and they were there, too, in 1999, voting then and probably voting Liberal, and Clark still won, and in 1995 when Ed Doyle did as well). With the lack of interest from Regional Chair Debbie Zimmerman and Councillor Larry DiIanni (mayoral candidate now) they decided to go with a no-name candidate. He may be a school trustee, but that's a pretty low-profile position. He may or may not have somewhat of a name in east end Hamilton/parts of Stoney Creek, but I doubt that it will carry much weight in Glanbrook or Grimsby, where we tend to get more rural and hence more conservative. Plus, Clark is the only cabinet minister from the Hamilton area, which works on his behalf even if people don't think it does. He has strength in the Grimsby/Glanbrook areas (also, Clark was actually a Liberal before accepting the Tory nomination in 1999). If Magnini wants to win, he'll have to do better than Bring Back Flag Day.
30/05/03 Crystal Ball
I do in some way agree with the previous post that in 2003 you don't take any ethnic group for granted that they will support one of their own and not look at the issues. That is very much old style politics and I hope that's not why the Liberals decided on Tony Magnini as their candidate. If that is indeed the reason Magnini will be carrying the Liberal colours, then it does even more to convince me that Brad Clark will win a second term.
27/05/03 robert e
Pretty poor analysis Ian...er King James. If the Grits think that they are going to win this riding because there is 6500 Italians they are in bigger trouble here than I imagined. The SC funeral Home may be a proper place for this Liberal candidate to hang his hat!
24/05/03 King James
Clark has a serious problem here! Stoney Creek has always beed a swing riding. Lets look at the history. Shirly Collins won it when Peterson won. Then Morrow(I thin he was the NDPer at the time) took it when Rae won, Ed Doyle took it when Harris won and Clark took it in 1999 when the PC's won a 2nd majority. Now lets look at Clark's #'s. He won with 45% of the vote. The PC's in 1999 won with 45% of the vote in Ontario. The PC's are now in the low 30's%. Philips only lost by about 2500 votes. Enter Magnini. He is Italian. The Italian population in 6500 in Stoney Creek, he is the Catholic Trustee for the area and runs the Stoney Creek Funural Home. If the Liberals win gov't Clark is out. I personaly feel that even if they don't Magnini is going to win.
21/05/03 Hammer
The Liberals don't even have a campaign headquarters open yet and the election is going to happen next week. Brad Clark opened his office over a month ago. The Liberals don't seem to be serious about winning Stoney Creek. From what I see, Brad Clark will win easy.
21/05/03 Reality Check
Debbie Zimmerman and Larry Di Ianni didn't run for the Liberals in Stoney Creek because they had a look at the published poll results in the local paper and figured out they couldn't beat Clark. It's really that simple. In 1999 there was a very hot contest for the Liberal nomination because there was no incumbent and the seat was considered wide open. This time Tony Magnini was acclaimed because he was the only Liberal willing to take the nomination. Magnini is just not well known enough to beat a high profile cabinet minister like Brad Clark.
21/04/03 Justin
Stoney Creek is the classic swing riding. Look at the results from last time...the Liberal and Tory percentage mirrored the provincial result. If Brad Clark has so much personal popularity, he should have beat the provincial Tory average. He did not. Tony Magnini is a school trustee and is involved in local community service clubs. He is not a total unknown. The Tory strengths lie in Glanbrook, Grimsby and the rural parts of Stoney Creek. Liberal strengths lie in East Hamilton and ethnic Stoney Creek areas of the riding. Despite the strengths and weaknesses, there are a few disadvantages the two frontrunners should be aware of: Brad Clark took over the PC riding association in 1999 with anti-dump SCRAP people and anti-amalgamation people. The anti-amalgamation platform (with the help of the Stoney Creek News) was THE issue in 1999. Brad campaigned very forcefully against the Hamilton supercity. He failed to deliver on this point. Now he says that "he has grown up since those days"...maybe his supporters have too and will search for someone else to support. Taxes have increased in Glanbrook and rural Stoney Creek (both Tory strongholds)....this will probably affect Brad in an ADFA-like way. Brad also proposed amalgamating Grimsby into Stoney Creek as a way of creating a larger Stoney Creek and avoiding Big Bad Hamilton...he failed. If Grimsby voters have a memory (and the fact that they re-elected the party that nearly wiped out its hospital suggests that they don't)....then Brad may get reduced support in Grimsby. Brad is also one of those guys that the more you know him, the less you like him. He is arrogant and this has rubbed off negatively on people. On the other hand, Magnini is a separate school trustee. This is not an issue in the East Hamilton and ethnic Stoney Creek parts of the riding where the majority of children attend Catholic schools. But as you get into the rural parts of the riding, the enthusiam of electing an Italian Catholic wanes (even though Clark himself is Roman Catholic). Magnini also lacks the extensive team that Chris Phillips had....he needs to fundraise quickly and reconnect the team that was behind Phillips back together. Both candidates have strengths and weaknesses.....given that this is a swing riding....it's WAY too early to make a prediction here. The campaign hasn't even started.
18/04/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
Brad Clark can beat the no name liberal who so far is not willing to run. The reason? Grimbsy is Tory Blue and will deliver the votes for victory to Clark. Plus Clark has shown himself to be something more than a trained seal. Clark will win even if the swing to the liberals is + 5% province wide. Only a massive landslide which would elect a no name liberal for the very back bench can change this outcome. Not going to happen folks
04/04/03 The Grim Reeper
It doesn't matter who runs for the Liberals, they will have an excellent shot at beating Clark based on the Tory government's record. The undemocratic forced amalgamation of Stoney Creek will haunt Clark as traditional support in Glanbrook turns to the Liberals as a way to punish the Tories for decimating their community (consider Ted McMeekin's victory). That leaves Clark with Grimsby. Anyone who knows the results of the last election knows Clark won thanks to Grimsby and Glanbrook. He will get decimated in Stoney Creek, where he has done absolutely nothing for the community but turn his back and say, "it's not my fault, I voted against amalgamation." Plus, anyone who stood by Clark durring the SCRAP days must have felt betrayed by his recent comments in the Stoney Creek News (March 26) "I was an activist, then I grew up."
01/04/03 Stelco Steve
I live in Hamilton and I can tell you that Brad Clark is pretty much impossible to beat. The Liberals tried to get a good candidate but failed. Now they are going to run Tony Magnini as the Liberal candidate. There is no way an unknown guy like Tony can beat Clark.
26/03/03 RWA
The Liberals, who see a majority government in their grasp, have candidates nominated all over the province. Without a candidate, this does not seem to be one of their targeted ridings. Unless the Tories colapse, this doesn't look like a Liberal pickup.
18/03/03 El Predicto
First Debbie Zimmerman refused to run for the Liberals and now according to the Hamilton Spectator, councillor Larry Di Ianni has refused to run for the Liberals either. Dalton McGuinty is running out of people to talk to about running in Stoney Creek. It really is time to move this one into the Tory column
05/03/03 AL
Brad Clark will hold. Compared to the rest of Hamilton Stoney Creek has become rather upscale and is Second to Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Aldershot in terms of Tory Support. The Tories realise that they need to hold this seat and will commit most of their Hamilton resources here and in ADFS. The rising Tory support in ADFS will also have good press and this rise in support may help catapult Brad Clark's number of supporters. Clark will hold
05/03/03 THE GAMBLER
The Gambler is putting his money on Bradley Clark to win Stoney Creek. To have a horse race you need to have two horses. The PC's have cabinet minister Clark. The LIB's have, nobody who's willing to get in there. Clark wins this race by default.
28/02/03 Panther
I disagree with Michael and El Predicto. I don't think I'm quite ready to predict a Tory win in this riding just yet. Clark won be a whisker in 1999. While Clark has climbed the Tory ranks rather quickly becoming a cabinet minister in his first term, it has reflected in the amount of time spent in his riding. His constituents are noticing this. As well, the demographics in the riding have changed somewhat since '99. The left-leaning Hamiltononians are slowling squeezing out the centre-right Stoney Creekians. Until I see strong evidence to prove I'm wrong, I predict a Liberal win by smiggin.
21/02/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
Zimmermann is taking a spare on running for the Liberals. They must run a no name candidate and will lose with the NDP hitting a new low. This riding can now be declared for the Tories.
21/02/03 El Predicto
It's offical, Niagara Regional Chair, Debbie Zimmerman will not be running for the Liberals this spring. Zimmerman would have easily won this riding for the Liberals but without her, they don't have a chance. That means Tory Brad Clark will be re-elected in Stoney Creek. This time with an even bigger margain. Clark has managed to stay on the right side of every issue that comes up in Stoney Creek and this will pay off for him. Mark this one down for the Tories.
20/01/03 Andrew Cox
Too Close to Call. Reasons: 1) The margin last time was reasonably close, with unknown Grit Chris Phillips holding his own against Brad Clark, ironically a former Liberal member who nominated Phillips to run for the Grits. 2) Clark has a high profile locally. He criticises his own government on key issues, including local amalgamation. Voters love that "standing up to your own party" stuff. 3) But amalgamation went ahead, despite Clark voting against it. Voters don't like their MPP looking ineffectual. 4) Property taxes are up in Glanbrook and Stoney Creek after amalgamation. Voters really don't like amagamation and the resulting tax increases. 5) NDP resources will have to be focused on holding Hamilton West and threatening in Hamilton Mountain. They won't be a credible presence here. 6) There is a strange little poll by a strange little company called Hendershot research doing the rounds. It was commissioned by the PC riding association, and asked a very stran! ge little vote preference question. Normally, vote is measured by asking "In a provincial election, would you support..." and then prompting with name and party of the candidate. Anyhoo, this poll seems to have simply asked an open-ended question "Who would you vote for in a provincial election?" and then collected the candidate names volunteered by the subject. Brad Clark was mentioned by 27%, Councilor Larry Di Ianni by 9%, Niagara Region chair Debbie Zimmerman by 5%, former NDP candidate Bob Barlow by 5% and nominated NDP candidate Lorrie McKibbon by 0.3%. But more than half of respondents couldn't name anyone. Adding to the strangeness of this poll, when specifically asked leader preference, Dalton McGuinty (28%) beat Ernie Eves (22%) with Hampton at just 5%. So people prefer McGuinty and Clark. Bizarre. Basically, the poll is a complete mess. Clark admits he paid more than $12,000 for this amature survey that really doesn't tell us anything. Seems the local Tories have! more money than brains. 7) Nominating Zimmerman would push up the Grit vote in Grimsby, the most PC part of the riding and Zimmerman's home turf. The loss of that base would hurt Clark, but he could make it up in the rest of the riding. We will see how things shake out after the Liberals nominate.
15/01/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
The results of a poll published in the Hamilton Spec on Jan 15 shows Clark with a wide lead over different liberal and NDP possible candidates. This poll appears to show the riding is a "safe Clark" riding
Editor's Note: Link to Story - Poll shows Clark ahead in uncalled race
12/11/02 Geneva
The Liberals will squeek through here as the PC Backlash forms on eday. THE Nd's aren't as strong as they used to be.
09/11/02 robert e
Might be possible for a NDP resurgence in this riding. People are upset with their hydro bills and their property tax increases due to amalgamation in Hamilton. I was at a hydro meeting hosted by a local councillor the other night. The NDP was there with their literature. Liberals have no credibility on this issue like Hampton. Some folks might vote against Clark because of amalgamation issue. This is what cost the Tories the ADFA by-election when Skarika resigned over this very issue. Pocketbook issues is what changes peoples votes. Hydro & Amalgamation are it in this riding. The NDP just might slid through the middle. Most recent Environics poll again had the NDP up again.
09/11/02 Peter Cassidy
This is the only Tory seat in the Hamilton area. Tony Skarica, who held ADFA for the Tories resigned over amalgamation,. Brad Clark, the Tory in Stoney Creek, should have resigned too but chose to hold on to his seat for the Tories. As a reward, he got a cabinet post. However, this is a riding where the NDP have been strong on the Hydro issue and Brad is feeling the heat. Recently, he has started to distance himself from the Tories. almost joining the NDP's hydro hotheads. This puts him and the Tories in Stoney Creek in a tough position-distance yourself from the government and feed the NDP strength and you lose. Stick with the Tory government and lose. The NDP here is smart and active, have nominated a credible candidate Lorrie McKibbon, with an education base and have started work to take this seat based on the alamgamation issue, Education and hydro-three Tory weaknesses, three NDP strenghts. The Liberals are not close to picking a candidate yet and their only hope is the Liberals don't collapse again-as they did in the last three provincial elections.
07/11/02 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
Brad Clark's stand on hydro indicates a degree of populism and survival instincts. This is indicative of a person who knows which way the wind is blowing. He can only be taken out by someone like Zimmerman a liberal star candidate. If Zimmerman takes the liberal nomination Clark loses. If she does not Clark holds this seat for the Tories(or really for himself). The decision is all up to Debbie Zimmerman. I do not expect her to decide until early in 2003.
26/10/02 Craig
The Tory vote has collapsed in Hamilton mainly due to education and municipal affairs. This seat will be a Liberal pickup, and it will not even be close! The city is really collapsing on a municipal standpoint, and the Tories will pay that huge price! In fact, the Tories may finish third, probably below 25%.
25/10/02 AL
Brad Clark should hold on by by a thread! The Only Tory currently in the Hamilton Wentworth area (Skarica resigned killing the Tories in Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough Aldershot)he should win just as the people of Hamilton know that a government MP gets things done, and the city of Hamilton needs all the help it can get! Even after almagmation its still collapsing!!
21/10/02 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
I see a liberal pick up in this swing seat if Debbie Zimmerman accept the nomination for the liberal party. Her area of strength is in Grimsby where Clark won it last time. Zimmerman is the star candidate that can take this away from the Tories.
18/10/02 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Brad Clark's turned out to be a Class of '99 cabinet "star"; but within the immediate Hamilton orbit, he should watch his back, anyway--especially as he's now the unlikely "last Tory" in Hamilton-Wentworth. In a way, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a Liberal/Tory seat "trade-in" between Stoney Creek and the Grit byelection gain of Ancaster et al...

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