Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Simcoe North

Last Update:
3:24 PM 01/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
26 October 2002

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
Paul Sloan
Progressive Conservative:
Garfield Dunlop
New Democratic Party:
John Niddery
Green Party:
Nina Pruesse

Garfield Dunlop

Federal MP:
Hon. Paul DeVillers

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

26160 53.15%

19209 39.03%

2913 5.92%

633 1.29%

305 0.62%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality10 227
Paul DeVillers
24 510 50.8%
Peter Stock
14 283 29.6%
Lucy Stewart
6 914 14.3%
Ann Billings
2 272 4.7%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation61.40%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born90.91%
Ontario Born84.44%
Visible Minority1.15%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$149296

College/Trade School26855

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30/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
I am acknowledging that Mr. Dunlop will have to work hard, but he should have no trouble hanging on to his seat. It is very true that in the old days when Penetang was lumped with Orillia as Simcoe East and Midland was attached to Muskoka, the Tories with Al managed to keep the riding in 87 and 90. Factor in the Midland vote, though, and the riding goes to Grit Butch Orser in 87 or Dipper Dennis Bailey in 90, take your pick. What is different this time around is that the Tories, by all opinion polls, will do better in the popular vote than 87 and 90, and that helps Dunlop. It also helps that there is an NDP revival. Add to that any residual backlash against gay marriages, (even if this is a federal issue, there is some confusion out there as to who is responsible for what). People can point to Devillers winning over 50 percent of the vote federally, but the fact is, quite apart from being a liberal, Devillers is seen as a competent constituency man. The riding has very strong small c tendencies. Dunlop 48, Sloan 44 and the green runs near the NDP in support.
29/09/03 R.H.
Dalton McGuinty would not be visiting this riding at this late stage in the game if it were not in play! The press reports that McGuinty was well-received in this riding during his visit and the number of supporters in attendance represented a possible breakthrough come election day. The winds of change could sweep away Dunlop who is definitely one of the weakest links on the Tory backbench. I guess if he manages to hold on, he will get a better seat, but on the opposite side!
29/09/03 Al
Looking at its electoral history, one would think that the Tories will win. However, the Liberals had a narrow miss in 1987, losing by only several hundred votes. The Tories in Simcoe North had usually have an easy go of it, facing weak Liberal candidates and poorly resourced Liberal machinery. Not this time. Pushed along by a strong central campaign, the Liberals in Simcoe North are on a roll. On September 28th they had over 500 people out to a Dalton McGuinty rally. This is not the true blue Simcoe North we're used to. I predicty a suprisingly strong victory for Paul Sloan on October 2nd.
28/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
I've decided to just off into the deep end with a seemingly bizarre pick. But just listen me out. Dunlop didn't do that well last time. I know he wasn't an incumbant but unlike say David Young or even Tina Molinari, he has done nothing but suggest he is a fascist. Why he seems to think that same-sex marriage is an important issue let alone an issue that concerns him is totally beyond me. Unlike Tascona and Wilson, who I am confident will win, his riding is did not receive higher combined total for PC-Alliance in 2000 than Liberal. Paul DeVillers is highly respected in this area and maybe they think sending a Liberal to Queen's Park would be better than a bizarre right-wing hick who belongs in the Family Coaliton Party.
24/09/03 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
From the 22 September edition of the Christian Science Monitor: [Garfield Dunlop is busy on the hustings, giving the same spiel at every door in his suburban Ontario district. "I've got some literature here on same-sex marriage," says the avuncular politician, pressing a pamphlet into the palm of a white-haired woman who smiles and motions him into her home. "It's a sin," he continues, climbing into the foyer. "And it could tear apart the fabric of our society."]
My comments: Would someone in a safe riding do something like this? For Dunlop to be peddling this sort of message suggests that he's desperate, and trying to scare the local matrons into supporting his (meaningless) crusade. The entire Simcoe region is pretty conservative, but I have to wonder if GD isn't setting himself up for a fall.
23/09/03 Will
Email: williamwaugh@hotmail.com
I predict a close Liberal win in this riding. This riding has always been a battle between Tory Orillia and the Liberal votes to the west of the riding. This time around I'm seeing many liberal signs on the lawns of Orillia. People have gotten fed up and this will swing the riding away from the right. Sloan is also pushed forward by his connections to many young voters and parents.
04/09/03 Craig
I feel that this riding will be a major battleground, and the Liberals will win with the immense pressure, led by the Liberal stronghold in the Midland-Penetanguishene area. Dunlop might be taking this seat for granted, thinking Simcoe = a Tory safe zone, but this is certainly the most marginal Tory seat in Central Ontario (except for the unique 3-way race in Haliburton-Victoria-Brock). In the end, Paul Sloan will lead the way. Current prediction: Sloan 47%, Dunlop 41%, Niddery 8%, Pruesse 3%, others 1%.
03/09/03 B.M.
This will be an interesting riding to watch. Garfield Dunlop, though he has done some good things during his rookie term, is a certified Flip-flopper dating back to his days as county warden. For example, he was very much in favour of the controversial Magna budget fiasco until it was clear that most people disliked it; then he came out and said he thought it was a mistake all along. Education is a hot-button issue and the Liberal challenger is a high school principal with many, many former students voting for the first time, and a network of teachers behind him. I predict a close Liberal win.
03/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
I did alot of campaigning for Al McLean when I lived in the riding. I believe that the old Simcoe East riding has been Tory since the days of George Drew. Take the worst case scenario for the Tories, (like 1987) and the riding stays Tory. The NDP vote can not really go much lower. Some will say that the addition of Midland to the riding put it more in play, but Dunlop still won by a comfortable margin against the popular George McDonald, Midland's own. Safe.
21/05/03 Grizz
This may be the most Liberal minded, and Liberal voting riding in the Lake Simcoe area but it is not Liberal enough to prevent another Tory victory here.
20/05/03 NDP Hippy
The NDP are showing nicely in the polls and the feud between the PC and Liberals will help the NDP win all over the Lake Simcoe area.
25/03/03 Puslinch Puma
Dunlop in a walk. Three facts lead me to that conclusion. First, this riding stayed blue during the lean years of Miller/Grossman/Harris'90 and if a ridin does that you can take it to the bank in 2003. Secondly, Garfield's municipal experience and personal popularity made the Al McLean incident a minor issue at the doors and did not significantly impact local Tory numbers. Third, Garfield has been out and about appearing at events across Ontario including the Ag. Fair in Sarnia and guest speaker at targeted opposition riding association events. Not only does this signal that Garfield's is a very safe seat, it also indicated he is on the short list for a Cabinet post next time around.
21/03/03 Craig
If Garfield Dunlop runs again, this should go to the Liberals because of personal backlash. If he does not, the Tories should eke out a win here, but by the smallest margin of any Central Ontario seat. If the Tories lose any more ground in the polls though, look out! The Liberal guns will be firing here - they will be pressing hard!
27/02/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
If there was any sexy Liberal target year for Simcoe North, it was 1999, when there was a perceived Al McLean backlash and the popular mayor of Midland was the Grit candidate--and still, they fell 15 points short. Other than generalized anti-Tory backlash, there's little reason to expect the same degree of Grit salivating today--though because of the Midland-Penetang factor and the remoteness from the 905 commuter orbit, it remains Simcoe's top candidate for an upset. Still, there must be gratitude for whatever prosperity Casino Rama provides for the locals...
30/01/03 JJ
If Mariposa is really the deep right territory SM paints, how come it keeps sending a very left Lib to Ottawa - hey, is that a majority too!, and how did it give the two big parties running anti-Harris tickets in 99 45% of the vote between them? Too close to call, and could be the best chance of a Liberal pickup from Steeles Avenue to Nipissing...
16/01/03 Josef Kunzler
Email: josef_kunzler@hotmail.com
Well, well the big fat bully of Simcoe North had better watch out. After last fall's obnoxious demands on MPP Sandra "Lady Churchill" Pupatello AFTER she apologized and repaid the people of Ontario the GST in PurolatorGate to do just that - don't just think that Dunlop will coast into Opposition because he has no character to speak of. Grits will pile on him like crazy come writ-drop, if not sooner. Expect a full-court press of payback and a close fight because we Grits are mad our hero got picked on for being one.
05/12/02 SM
Hell will freeze over before Simcoe leaves the conservative column. The region is generally socially conservative, economically libertarians, and couldn't be any more in tune with Conservative ideology, unless another flood of Bay St. executives decided to build new summer home's in the area.
26/10/02 AL
The tories should have a pularity win here in Blue country!

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