Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Scarborough-Agincourt

Last Update:
2:54 PM 28/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
30 October 2002



Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Liberal Party:
Gerry Phillips
Progressive Conservative:
Yolanda Chan
New Democratic Party:
Stacy Douglas
Green Party:

Incumbent:
Gerry Phillips

Federal MP:
Jim Karygiannis

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction
Plurality2783

*GERRY PHILLIPS
18698 50.7%

*JIM BROWN
15915 43.15%

BOB FRANKFORD
1319 3.58%

GARY CARMICHAEL
451 1.22%

WAYNE COOK
371 1.01%

KEN MORGAN
129 0.35%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality21 886
Jim Karygiannis
26 986 70.9%
Andrew Faust
5 100 13.4%
Bruce Elliott
4 030 10.6%
Michael Laxer
1 499 3.9%

Demographic Profile:
Population
2001114411
1996107030
1991101283

(1996 census)

Age
0-1925915
20-3933175
40-5927540
60+20400

Avg Household Income

$50555
Labour Participation59.20%
Unemployment11.50%

Canadian Citizen

78.81%
Canadian Born39.19%
Ontario Born34.13%
Immigrant59.17%
Visible Minority60.74%
Aboriginal0.10%

First Language
English46005
French940
Chinese27930
Tamil5195
Greek2695
Italian2645
Arabic2220

Residence
House51.20%
Apartment48.75%
Owned58.86%
Rented41.14%
Avg Dwelling Value$207733

Education
University24150
College/Trade School21685
Secondary31805



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26/09/03
Email:
If signs are any indication - I give the advantage to the Liberals. I don't think it'll be a blow out - but wisely the PC's put an Asain in this riding - so they should get more votes than they normally would. I have yet to see any NDP signs (no surpize). Phillips will win and why it won't be a walk in the park - it'll be easy enough. Liberal 60, PC 30, NDP 8, others 2
12/09/03 joe
Email: jbush@learn.ycdsb.edu.on.ca
Gerry Phillips will walk over the opposition in Scarborough-Agincourt. His campaign team is considerably ahead of last election, in terms of committed votes, signs, and volunteers. Yolanda Chan, probably a very nice person, is finding lots of polite smiles but little commitment at the doorsteps (even along the Steeles Avenue corridor). At their first all-candidates debate, Ms. Chan found it difficult to answer any questions where the answers were not included in the "Tory Crib Notes". Mr. Phillip's status as the next Minister of Finance, combined with long standing in the community, and regular communication with constituents, make this one of the easiest ridings in Ontario to predict: Lib 60%, PC 25%, NDP 10%, other 5%.
16/06/03 Craig
Email:
Gerry Phillips in a cakewalk. Since he is probably going to be the Minister of Finance after the election, the voters know that they will be behind him as their candidate heads for a senior cabinet post. The Tories will not even come close to the 43% in 1999 and the NDP are not a real factor here. Predicted results: LIB 64%, PC 20%, NDP 8%, Green 4%.
01/05/03 Greg
Email:
Philips in a landlside. Even when the PC put in a high profile cnadidate against a ten ailing Philips they still came up short. The tinking now is that if the put in Chinese candidate (Yolanda Chan) they will get the chinese vote. Sorry Yolanda but Chinese people are like veryone else. In this case the best candidate is Gerry
06/03/03 Andy
Email: andyk8123@hotmail.com
To On da Money who said that the tories will win Scarborough-Agincourt, should take that crystal ball of his back to whoever he bought it from and demand a refund because it is broken. Scarborough-Agincourt will remain in the Liberal column, Mr. Phillips will most likely be the Minister of Finance after the election if the Liberals are victorious, so their options are a future Liberal cabinet minister or a future Tory backbencher. I think they will go with the minister, and also the fact of the matter is that this is a Metro Toronto riding and not a 905 riding. Also with the Liberals doing so well of late in the polls the victory margin will be even bigger and the percentage of voters going with the Grits. My prediction Phillips wins by 6000+ and 55%+ of the vote.
18/03/03 On da Money
Email: ondamonay_8676686_2003@yahoo.com
The crystal ball shows a retirement party for Gerry Phillips. Look for Joe Li, President of the Chinese Canadian Greater Toronto Progressive Conservative Association, to be the Tory candidate in this riding - an area in the province with one of the highest Chinese populations. Not only that, Li's balanced views reflective of the Agincourt community will help him win over votes.
Editor's note: The riding with largest Chinese population is Scarbrough Rouge River, seconded by Markham.
15/03/03 lrs
Email:
phillips should be get finance position in cabinet-if Liberals winning provincially should be no problem getting increased plurality
27/02/03 PMK
Email:
Phillips will win this riding. In fact, the Liberals would do significantly better with him as Leader than they will with, as a Chamber of Commerce MC recently introduced him as, Donald McWinty.
29/10/02 I.M
Email:
If Gerry Philips runs again this seat will remain strongly Liberal.
28/10/02 Burke
Email:
The Liberals with Gerry Phillips should have no difficulty in retaining this Scarborough Riding. It has been a Liberal stronghold for quite sometime and I think Mr. Phillips should cruise to victory here.
28/10/02 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
If, as it now appears, Gerry Phillips runs again--though health problems have in the past prevented him from a frontrunning provincial leadership run--he's as good as in again. In fact, in his 1999 incumbent battle with de-seated and parachuted-in Jim Brown, Phillips should have utterly pummelled his Tory opponent. Surprisingly, Brown held his own--and even more surprisingly, in the northernmost polls most of all, hitherto the Grits' strongest. Perhaps the Tories'law'n'order stance held weight among middle-class voters concerned by Asian crime? (There was a similar "Steeles bump" for the Tories in the corresponding Scarborough-Rouge River and Markham polls.) Still, I'd imagine Gerry Phillips has learned from that closer-than-expected call by now...


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