Sault Ste. Marie

Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Sault Ste. Marie

Last Update:
9:19 PM 30/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
9:19 PM 30/09/2003

Political Profile:

Candidates:
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Liberal Party:
David Orazietti

Progressive Conservative:
Bruce Wilson

New Democratic Party:
Tony Martin

Green Party:

Incumbent:

Tony Martin

Federal MP:

Carmen Provenzano

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 5472

*TONY MARTIN

15949 43.23%

JAMES CAICCO

10477 28.4%

TERRY SHEEHAN

10180 27.59%

COLLEEN HIBBS

288 0.78%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 9 665

Carmen F. Provenzano

18 867 50.8%

Bud Wildman

9 202 24.8%

David Ronald Rose

7 006 18.9%

Doug Lawson

1 168 3.1%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 74566

1996 80054

1991 81476

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 21205

20-39 22880

40-59 20780

60+ 15185

Avg Household Income
$53505

Labour Participation 60.20%

Unemployment 12.80%

Canadian Citizen
97.98%

Canadian Born 87.59%

Ontario Born 81.87%

Immigrant 12.33%

Visible Minority 1.26%

Aboriginal 4.23%

First Language

English 65910

French 3050

Italian 4975

Residence

House 73.28%

Apartment 26.38%

Owned 66.47%

Rented 33.53%

Avg Dwelling Value $117120

Education

University 12770

College/Trade School 18045

Secondary 25275

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	29/09/03	Craig Email:
I don't see the Liberals picking this seat up with the NDP making late gains (from 12% to 17-18%), although the Liberals will certainly move up and make it closer than last time, at the expense of the Tories who will fall dramatically. It will probably be a close one, but Martin should hang on because of the NDP gains. Current prediction: Martin 44%, Orazietti 40%, Wilson 11%, others 4%.
	28/09/03	lrs Email:
if NDP lose this seat- official party status will be at risk- assuming Tory vote will be quite low- I assume Libs will benefit most from drop- but I am guessing a 2-5%win for NDP member- but I have to admit that wish for government funds for a northern seat after years in opposiiton will hurt NDP as opposed to holders of NDP seats in toronto- I hope local persons making submissions can tell us who has best organization to get out the vote-assuming that is the NDP-weather may be play a role
	28/09/03	Email:
The poll mentioned was not comissioned by MCTV as "Andrew" would have us believe- It was an Oracle poll liekly paid for by the Liberals, which asked a number of leading questions, such as "Don't you think it's important to have a member on the government side?" yet no questions catering to tories ("Do you really trus McGuinty with your tax dollars?") nor New Democrats ("Do you think it's important to have a member fighting for public health care, education, and hydro?"). The poll had Orazietti up by o.3%, while internal NDP polls have the riding at over 50% support for the NDP. So which will be more accurate? A liberal poll showing Orazietti with a squeaker of a lead, or an NDP poll showing Martin far ahead? We'll just have to wait and see. But maveric PC candidate, Bruce Wilson's constant trouncing of Orazietti, debate after debate, won't bode well for the Liberals.
	28/09/03	Gerry Kennedy Email:
This is a true nail-biter. I must think that Martin is going to win however. The NDP are on the rise province-wide and will do better in the popular vote than they did in the last election. Combine this with a popular local incumbant and I think you have a tough time beating Martin. True, the LIberals also have a good candidate but I think that Dalton has so many Liberals in the North he won't find anything for this one to do. Martin will hang on by 1700 votes.
	28/09/03	Dave Email:
The Soo along with Nipissing appear to be the only two ridings in the "real" North (not including the Simcoes) that are still up for grabs. My sources in the Soo tell me that Orazietti has turned this into a real close race. A scheduled visit by McGuinty on Monday also shows the riding is "in play". Im hearing that the chance to put a member into government without having to vote Tory has Martin running scared. This riding deserves to be at least rated too close to call.
	26/09/03	Andrew Email: copithat@rogers.com
I think you need to call this one a toss-up at least. A new MCTV poll found that Orazietti and Marting are tied at 42% apiece. Additionally, 80% of voters said they wanted to elect an MPP that is part of government, which doesn't bode well for Martin, what with the NDP lagging in the polls. It does, however, favour the Orazietti. With the Liberals riding a surge of support into office province-wide, it could be enough to tip the balance in Orazietti's favour.
	25/09/03	Christopher J. Currie Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
I've received a rather surprising report from a northern contact. It seems that the NDP are concerned about SSM, given the anticipated provincial swing to the Liberals. There may be some justification for this concern, given that Liberal candidates have outpolled the NDP in the most recent municipal and federal campaigns (and this despite Bud Wildman running in the latter). I still think that Martin will pull through, but it could be close.
	19/07/03	J.S Email:
STILL no Tory candidate... Not that it matters, Martin is safe here, what with the Tories collapsing worse in the North than the rest of Ontario, I would assume that they[ex-tories] would be pretty pissed-off with both the Federal Liberals, and the Provincial Tories. Add to that the fact that Martin is a great defender of Sault Ste. Marie...well it's just not going to be close at all.
	14/06/03	Email:
The NDP are on between 30% and 40% in Northern Ontario. For the NDP to lose a safe seat(ie: majority over 20%) in Northern Ontario would require a complete collapse, and that is not going to happen.
	09/06/03	Craig Email:
An economically depressed community, it is certain they will not vote for the current government, and Tony Martin has shown considerable leadership on local issues and is very popular. That means he should easily retain the seat with an increased margin. The Liberals will gain from the Tories but it won't be nearly enough. Predicted results: NDP 50%, LIB 37%, PC 8%, Green 3%.
	06/06/03	Email:
Not even close. The Grits would need 70% of last time round's Tory voters to even get close. Latest poll I have seen has the NDP going up to up to 17%. That is up 5% from '99. The NDP's hold on this seat could increase, especially if Eves delays the election.(As looks almost certain).
	23/05/03	Christopher J. Currie Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
I'm a bit surprised that Tony Martin is running again. I had half-suspected that Bud Wildman's Federal run here in 2000 was a manoeuvre to increase his son Jody's chances of getting the Provincial nomination (SSM being rather more winnable for the NDP than is Algoma-Manitoulin, these days). Given that Martin is running again, however, I can't see that he'll have any difficulties. The NDP increased their share of the vote here in 1995; that's probably enough to qualify it as a safe seat.
	14/05/03	Michael Email: snowstormcanuck@yahoo.com
Sault Ste. Marie is largely a steelworking, unionist town. This alone is a plus in the ledger for the NDP along with the fact that the NDP as of May 2, 2003 is running at 18% which is fairly high. Not only this, but Tony Martin is well liked. The Soo is Prime NDP teritorry and will remain so.
	12/05/03	Grizz Email:
The NDP are doing no worse in the polls than they did in '99. This seems to suggest they will keep the seats they already have. In the Soo the NDP incumbent won by a large margin (look at the numbers to the left of your screen El Predicto. There is a big difference between 43% and 28%) last time. This time he'll probably do just as well.
	11/05/03	Shawn Meades Email: spmeades@yahoo.ca
With respect, I believe that's highly unlikely. We're talking about a life long activist and the person who resigned as Deputy Speaker because there was too little being done by the government or the legislature to fight poverty. He's not about to take a do-nothing bureaucratic appointment. Tony's campaign is up and ready to roll- 3 billboards are up around town (not perfect, but IMHO, much nicer than David Orazietti's jumble of websites, phonenumbers, and meaningless slogans), pre-election newspaper ads have already ran, and the new federal leader, Jack Layton, was here just last week for a fundraiser and to support locked out CUPE workers at CLA. Tony's a very humble man, and always works hard in campaigns. This one is no different. He always respects his opponents, and is too smart to ever consider an election "safe." David does pose a threat, but I believe the people of Sault Ste. Marie will stand by Tony for at least one more round.
	08/05/03	Scoop Jackson Email:
Like governments of every political stripe, the Tories are looking to reward some loyal supporters with juicy appointments just before the election. Just like in 1999, the Tories are looking for a few token appointments from the opposition parties to point at when they are under fire for patronage. My NDP contacts tell me that the Tories did offer Marilyn Churley a big environmental appointment but she turned them down right away. The next NDP member the Tories approached was Tony Martin. I'm told that Tony didn't say no right away. It does make some sense that Tony would at least think this over. He's had a long run at Queen's Park and it's no secret Tony is not looking forward to spending another four years on the opposition benches. Another reason Tony may be thinking this over is his Liberal opponent, David Orezietti. Keep your eye on Tony Martin and see if he takes the Tory appointment.
	01/05/03	Mike Email: mdavis@hfx.andara.com
The EKOS poll is now dated, with the release of a new Angus Reid poll on Apr/23/03. It shows Lib 48, PC 31, NDP 16. This indicates the NDP will survive a Liberal landslide with at least its incumbents, and maybe even pick up a handful of seats. This poll also shows the NDP at 30 percent in the North, so Tony Martin has little to worry about.
	25/04/03	El Predicto Email:
Of the 8 NDP members seeking re-election, Tony Martin is the one most likely to lose his seat. Martin has never won his riding by a wide margin and with the NDP free falling in the polls he's not going to be able to keep the riding. David Orazietti is the best candidate Martin has ever face. Orazietti has a high profile in the riding and has put together a good team. Looks like time is up for Tony.
	17/04/03	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
To use the "April 5 EKOS poll results" generically to render the NDP to oblivion is really jumping the gun--especially in light of election-postponement murmurs. Fact is; the members the NDP already has (if not all the seats) are fundamentally safe. And that includes Tony Martin. Now, a decent Grit candidate here and in Nickel Belt is good insurance in case of Liberal landslide sweep-ins; but for now, they're only gallant standard-bearers. (And who knows anything; the Tories were 2nd last time out in the Soo. Why, Soo's PC's even provided a decent cabinet minister in John Rhodes a generation ago.) Martin's trickiest race was his first (strangely, in the Rae landslide year of 1990), when he was caught in the middle of SSM's "language wars"; but he's had no problem since, the locals are still grateful to Bob Rae for saving Algoma, and they wouldn't use Algoma's current travails as a slur against the NDP...
	14/04/03	Scotty Email:
April 5 EKOS poll results. Liberals 53, Tories 34, NDP 11. The NDP are falling apart and that means Tony Martin is finished. David Orazietti will be the next MPP for this riding.
	04/04/03	Diane Email:
Tony Martin is running scared. David Orazietti and the Same Sault Liberal machine that sent Bud Wildman packing back to the foothills of Echo Bay in the last federal election are out to rid the Sault of the NDP for good. Sault Ste. Marie voters are tired of watching Tony Martin bumble around doing nothing good for the Sault. David Orazietti will win in the Sault, he is the president of the local OSSTF and a two term city councillor with the right last name to pull him to victory in a city with the demographics that the Sault has.
	30/01/03	JJ Email:
Tony Martin is a treasure and holds, unless his campaign is really under-resourced. Nolan has too much sense to become an inevitable "shooting star" candidate, the next Maj-Gen Lewis Mackenzie, or Priscillia DeVilliers, or Durhane Wong-Rieger, or...
	21/01/03	Andrew Cox Email:
NDP Win. Reasons 1) Tony Martin might not be the finest orator in the legislature, but he is a quietly passionate man with strongly held opinions who has earned respect from all quarters. He works hard for his community and represents them well. 2) With sluggish economic growth and a hard-hat economy, the Sault is archtypical NDP turf: rust-belt North. Martin speaks to the economic frustrations of people who feel left behind by a government focused on the south. 3) People who want a change of government will stick with Martin. Those who like the Tory agenda voted for them in the past. Not much room for movement. 4) A high-profile candidate for either the Liberals or the Tories could shake things up: 5500 votes is not an unmoveable mountain of support. This won't be the NDP's biggest win (Bisson will keep that), but it should be a victory. 5) Sounds like the Ted Nolan thing won't happen, but never say never. Conclusion: mark it NDP unless the nominations are big ! surprises.
	05/12/02	SM Email:
I spend a lot of time in this riding, and first, I can't imagine Tony Martin not running. He's got quite a few more terms left in him. He's beloved by almost all- the only way this seat could fall to either the Liberals or tories would be if they nominated Jesus himself. And last time I checked, he's not seeking either one's nomination.
	21/11/02	S. Webb Email:
As of now, I would predict Tony Martin to retain this seat. He is a quiet and inoffensive MPP. BUT... rumour has it that Ted Nolan might run for the Tories. If that were to happen, all bets are off.
	19/10/02	Email:
This riding should stay with the NDP, whether or not Tony Martin runs. If Tony decides to run again, this should be easily the largest NDP margin of victory in Ontario, knowing he has really stood up to a city in an economic downturn. I don't see any change here, the Tories and Liberals will probably split the vote further right like in 1999.

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