Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003


Last Update:
3:12 PM 01/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
12 November 2002

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
John Wilkinson
Progressive Conservative:
Bert Johnson
New Democratic Party:
Jack Verhulst
Green Party:
John Cowling

Bert Johnson

Federal MP:

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

22065 52%

15428 36.36%

3053 7.19%

1369 3.23%

521 1.23%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality5 443
John Alexander Richardson
16 988 40.4%
Gary Schellenberger
11 545 27.4%
Garnet Bloomfield
9 785 23.3%
Sam Dinicol
2 800 6.7%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation72.20%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born90.63%
Ontario Born85.59%
Visible Minority1.68%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$158990

College/Trade School21325

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30/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
I would anticipate that Perth Middlesex continue its trend of electing Tories...like Guelph, Bruce and Lincoln, this is one of these small c conservative ridings that went Liberal during the Davis years and now will align themselves with the Tory fold.
29/09/03 th
It's reasonable that in such a traditionally small-c conservative riding and a rural one at that, that Bert Johnson may very well carry the day though with less support than last time. Let's not forget, though, that this very same riding has a history of surprising everyone, i.e., when it went NDP, of all things! Plus it has been strongly Liberal on a federal level, so in a way, anything goes! And Green Party candidate John Cowling is getting a good reception (so it seems - lots of Green Party lawn signs, newspaper coverage, etc.) It would make sense that in a rural riding, the Green Party message might take seed and in years to come -- who knows? It will be interesting to see the percentage of votes John Cowling and the Green Party will get, now that the voters have this choice to consider as well!
28/09/03 Catherine
Bert Johnson will win this riding. His is well liked in the rural portions of Perth and Middlesex. People in Middlesex have appreciated the genuine effort he has made to get to know that part of the riding. The City of Stratford may hurt Bert, but they always tend to be more left-leaning. Bert's advocacy on behalf of farmers will carry him strongly to victory.
13/09/03 Jerr
Email: jdequetteville@cogeco.ca
This one is going Liberal. Here is a quote from CP today: Accompanying Eves during his foray into the crowds was his life partner Isabel Bassett and incumbent Conservative member Bert Johnson, whom even local Tories admit will have a hard time being re-elected.
08/09/03 A.J.
I think Bert will sew this region up again but, on a narrower margin then last time. Due in part to the Federal government's delayed responsive to the mad cow issue on one level and as mentioned before this is a deeply conservative riding built upon independence and self-responsibility. Taxcuts and education reforms will directly influence this.
09/09/03 Nathanael Homewood
Email: nhomewood@porchlight.ca
Joshua Kelly is right. Innes was a terrible candidate and rude to boot (recall his feigned anger at Listowel's All Candidate's meeting). But lets be honest Schellenberger didn't wow anyone with his intelligence or eloquence. Schellenberger's win was a party victory, not a indication of any candidates strength. Same will go provincially. Johnson by 20%.
07/09/03 Joshua Kelly
Email: sidissatan@hotmail.com
I predict that Wilkinson will win the seat by a very slim margin. It is true that in the recent federal bi-election a PC Candidate was elected in this riding, however the Liberal canadidate was not exactlly the best candidate.
25/05/03 J.M.
The people in this riding are by and large a conservative-minded crowd. The major points of the tory platform should fare well here, especially among education conscious parents and the large community of senior citizens who are concerned about taxes. The mostly urban-based Liberals and NDP don't have strong enough policies or leadership to relate effectively with the small towns and strong agricultural community. There is a strong base of PC support here which will offset any influence from mostly Liberal and NDP Stratford.
12/05/03 Grizzd
The people here just voted in a PC MP in the by-election, what makes anyone think this riding will go anything but PC provincially, especially with a popular PC incumbant.
18/03/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Here's another case where post-Ernie sag and backlash could damper what once looked like a popular-incumbented fairly sure bet. Beyond such issues as the budget fiasco, Bert's own base of power in the north is within the Walkerton orbit. But the opposition is also dampered, not only by the strange federal situation but potentially by anti-strategic splits from within (for instance, the former NDP MPP, Karen Haslam, is now Stratford mayor). So, all sorts of dynamics, rural, urban, even (esp. within Haslam's Stratford) Layton-yuppie, promise to make this a more than routinely interesting race to monitor than it presently appears...
12/11/02 Andrew Cox
PC win. Reasons. 1) The candidates are a rematch of 1999, Johnson vs Wilkinson. No reason to see much changed based on that. 2) The riding is made up of conservative small towns. Even if Stratford trades "MacBeth" for "Mcguinty" completely, the concessions are a harder sell for the Grits. 3) The Liberals ethanol plan (using corn as a gasoline additive, it drives up demand for corn, helps farmers) will gain them some traction around the riding, but expect Johnson to push the same thing. 4) The bizarre and macabre story of John Richardson, the resigning Liberal MP, will hurt the provincial Liberals in the next election.

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