Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Oxford

Last Update:
3:11 PM 01/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
21 October 2002



Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Liberal Party:
Brian Brown
Progressive Conservative:
Ernie Hardeman
New Democratic Party:
Sean Rouse
Green Party:
Freedom Party:
Paul Blair

Incumbent:
Ernie Hardeman

Federal MP:
John Finlay

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction
Plurality7566

*ERNIE HARDEMAN
22726 53.25%

BRIAN BROWN
15160 35.53%

MARTIN DONLEVY
3077 7.21%

ANDRE DE DECKER
875 2.05%

KAYE SARGENT
321 0.75%

PAUL BLAIR
312 0.73%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality2 131
John Finlay
15 181 35.6%
Dave MacKenzie
13 050 30.6%
Patricia Smith
11 455 26.8%
Shawn Rouse
2 254 5.3%

Demographic Profile:
Population
200199270
199697142
199192888

(1996 census)

Age
0-1928185
20-3927815
40-5923085
60+18040

Avg Household Income

$55320
Labour Participation68.10%
Unemployment7.80%

Canadian Citizen

97.36%
Canadian Born88.28%
Ontario Born82.42%
Immigrant11.46%
Visible Minority1.67%
Aboriginal0.53%

First Language
English84625
French935
Dutch2920
German2020

Residence
House84.02%
Apartment14.91%
Owned71.46%
Rented28.54%
Avg Dwelling Value$139492

Education
University9635
College/Trade School21855
Secondary34440



Authorized by the CFO for the Oxford Provincial Freedom Party Association
30/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
Given the strong polling for the Tories in Oxford in the last two elections, we might also note that the Tories federally have done very well here, too, almost winning the seat in 1997. Oxford has alot of small c conservative roots, that have seen many years of Tory representation both federally and provincially.
29/09/03 Sean Simmons
Email:
Internal Liberal polls show Tory support eroding to below that of the Liberals in the strongest PC area of the riding, Norwich Township - all related to potential closing of Norwich District Secondary School. There are more Liberal signs in this riding than in the 1987 Petersen landslide. Liberal workers are being kept on the active campaign trail and are not even working poll jobs - the Tories are really scrambling. McGuinty has made 2 visits to this riding in the last 9 days, most recently to the rural parts of the riding. This riding votes with the provincial trend so mark this in the Liberal column on election night.
29/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
Email:
The Tories have got to win somewhere. The polls suggest any lead of less than 20% will go Liberal. But we must remember that is an average and they are poised to lose WAterloo-Wellington and Oakville, just to name two, that they won by more than that last time. Hardeman won by 18%. That means he has to make up 2% to buck the provincal trend. He has worked hard for this riding and hard at Queen's Park. His cabinet staff alone should pull in the difference.
28/09/03 Mark R
Email:
This riding has a history of voting with the winning party for the last 5 elections and it will be no different this time. Although Hardeman has worked hard in Oxford, it will not be enough to counter the anti-government vote. Local issues hurting the PC's include the Otterville tire dump, Aylmer Meat Packers, etc. The Liberal candidate has been working this riding hard since that last election and this will be the icing on the cake. Liberal win, surprisingly bigger than most will think.
22/09/03 M
Email:
Oxford is known as a bellweather riding which means that so goes the riding, so goes the province. Since the province is going Liberal, that means that Oxford will go Liberal as well. The only way this can be different is if Ontario is heading for a minority government which looks more and more unlikely every day.
13/09/03 Gibson Bernath
Email:
A lead of over 7500 votes from 1999 election will be hard to beat in Oxford.
12/05/03 Grizz
Email:
Right-leaning rural riding that is Liberal federally only because the PC and CA parties split the vote (making it an almost even 3 way race). Safe PC win here.
16/03/03 Panther
Email:
Ernie Hardeman is running again and the popular MPP will win without any question. He's will liked in this rural riding and is seen as a grandfather figure (or maybe the jolly uncle figure). His recent appointment back into cabinet will help solidify his win.
19/01/03 M.S.
Email: mishkasawka@hotmail.com
If E.H. runs again, he'll definitely win. I doubt the Liberals or NDP would pay much attention to this riding, leaving the local candidates on their own. On the other hand, if Ernie decides not run again, everything could change...
07/11/02 Andrew Cox
Email: andrewcox101@hotmail.com
Reasons. 1) Strong PC base to work from, with Liberal support limited to urban areas like Woodstock. 2) Liberals nominated a good candidate, but he's a teacher in a riding where farmers are king. 3) Hardeman was dumped from cabinet as agriculture minister, but it actually worked in his favour because local voters think he got a bum rap. It also allowed Hardeman to get a little sunlight between himself and unpopular PC policies. 4) Not enough local outrage, although anything could happen if Hydro rates stay high.
20/10/02 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
One of only a pair of Ontario ridings where, 1997 + 1999 + 2000, PC outpolls Liberal (though more by luck of federal candidacy). Even in cabinet, Ernie Hardeman's given little reason for electoral rejection within this classic slab of SW Ontario farm-country heartland. (Though the Liberals won lots of urban Woodstock and Ingersoll polls in 1999; but in that election's climate, that was to be expected.)


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