Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003


Last Update:
3:20 PM 01/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
1:09 PM 5/4/2003

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
Madeleine Meilleur
Progressive Conservative:
Maurice Lamirande
New Democratic Party:
Joseph Zebrowski
Green Party:

Claudette Boyer

Federal MP:
Mauril Bélanger

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

21009 53.03%

12605 31.81%

4163 10.51%

953 2.41%

580 1.46%

310 0.78%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality19 149
Mauril Bélanger
26 749 55.6%
Nestor Gayowsky
7 600 15.8%
Stephen Woollcombe
7 400 15.4%
Joseph Zebrowski
4 194 8.7%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation65.10%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born78.31%
Ontario Born53.87%
Visible Minority16.12%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$176240

College/Trade School19070

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22/09/03 JGH
Pursuant to Craig's submission below, just some filler comment about the riding that will serve to indicate why the NDP will finish third. Of the entire riding, the only place which can be considered NDP friendly is Sandy Hill, with a smattering of U of O voters, but let's note that this area is packed with embassy row types (nonvoters) and some pretty well-to-do homes. More importantly, this area is dwarfed by other areas of the riding which are either Liberal locks (the heavily francophone and Liberal-voting former City of Vanier) or Tory-friendly enclaves such as Rockcliffe Park and Rothwell Heights. Plus there's CFB Rockcliffe here, with about 4 or 5 polls of military families. With the NDP running at about 3% in Eastern Ontario as per the latest polls, it would be extremely surprising to see them place higher than a distant third here. My best guess, pre-debate, is something on the order of Meillieur 63%, Lamirande, 30%, Zebrowski 7%.
08/09/03 JP
Craig, You are pretty high on the NDP, the Libs should pull in about 65 %, look at the numbers in the last Fed Election, the NDP barely pulled in 8 % of the vote with the same candidate, cant see how he will do any better this time around.
29/08/03 Craig
With Boyer out of the picture, this is now back to its old self: hardcore Liberal, although a few votes may be lost when they expose the fact Dalton McGuinty appointed Meilleur. It should not cost her the seat though, barring a total collapse. The NDP seem to have a 'silent' base - a low-income riding, yet it does not show up at the polls, like next door in Ottawa Centre. Will it show up? Maybe, but it will not affect the outcome. Current prediction: Meilleur 54%, Zebrowski 21%, Lamirande 21%, others 4%.
07/06/03 Grandpa
Once and for all let's make this clear. CLAUDETTE BOYER HAS ANNOUNCED SHE WON'T BE RUNNING AS AN IDEPENDENT IN THIS ELECTION! I hope everyone will finally understand this point and we don't get anyone else writing that Boyer might run. Madeleine Milleur can start looking for an apartment in Toronto because she's going to Queen's Park.
06/06/03 AC
I cannot believe all the B.S. I have been reading here. If this is the informed political punditry making up the predictions... no wonder there is confusion and more 'hard to call' seats than predicted ones. Liberal! Let's put it this way: 1999 had Harris, while McGuinty was new. That's gone. Liberals dominate polls, there is high appetite for change (in government) and even the leadership gap has been eliminated. McGuinty now leads or is inside the margin of error on 'suitability for Premier' even in polls by Tory-ish firms such as SES and Compas. Et c'est Ottawa-Vanier, mes amis! Madeleine Meilleur est forte! Prediction: Liberal! Geez. Get with it.
28/05/03 JR Villemaire
If Liberal Independent MPP Claudette Boyer decides to run as an Independent in the next election, designated Liberal candidate Madeleine Meilleur will have a hard time winning! I would then predict a Conservative win. PC Candidate Maurice Lamirande got 32% of the popular vote last time around after all.
21/05/03 Grizz
This riding is Liberal-Land, the PC don't have a prayer. The thing is, despite a left of center feel to the area, the NDP have even less of a prayer with those abysmal past results.
10/05/03 JGH
Liberal win. The NDP are going to finish third here, bet the mortgage on it. Note that the current candidate, Joe Zebrowski, finished a distant fourth in the 2000 general election. FOURTH! There could be some potential closure between PC and NDP if current provincewide trends continue, but there's a 20-point spread to be overcome. Not going to happen. The NDP have been taking Ottawa-Vanier for granted over the past few elections, and now all of its votes have defected to the Liberals. Maybe one day, sometime in the next 100 years, someone other than the Liberals will win this riding. But it's going to be the Tories, people.
03/05/03 Craig
Very difficult to call. If Boyer does not run as an independent, Meilleur should take this in a cakewalk with over 55% of the votes. If she does run, that would probably take votes away from the Liberals, and it could create a three-way race (Liberal, NDP, independent Boyer) since there would be a split of the 'Liberal' votes, and if it is divided enough, the NDP could play spoiler, since they are bound to gain some of the left-leaning votes. The Tories are not a factor, they will finish third or fourth. Predicted results: (if Boyer runs) LIB 30%, IND 28%, NDP 26%, PC 14%, Green 2% (if Boyer does not run) LIB 57%, NDP 27%, PC 14%, Green 2%.
Editor Note: Boyer is not seeking reelection
27/03/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Let's put it this way; I get little or no vibe about Claudette Boyer being another Peter North. However, her presumed (though not guaranteed) candidacy does add an interesting dynamic to the race--in which direction, who knows (after all, like Peter North or John Nunziata, an independent can steal from several parties at once). The NDP is a sleeper, I agree, and it's got latently strong Lower Town/Sandy Hill/New Edinburgh/Manor Park bases as well as 70s electoral history behind it--but somehow, I feel a shocker of a federal NDP "steal" under Layton is more likely than a provincial takeover. What all of this means is that for the first time in an eternity, a provincial riding incorporating Vanier could be won by the Liberals with less than half, maybe less than 40%, of the vote. But Liberal's still the word.
17/03/03 THE GAMBLER
The Gambler is putting his money on Madeleine Meilleur to win Ottawa-Vanier. The LIBs never lose this riding and won't this time out. Take my advice on this one.
16/03/03 SM
The NDP should have a stronger showing here then in the past. The variable being of the media. If Zebrowski can raise his profile he should have a chance at swaying a large number of votes. Yes Meilleur, is a francophone, but her english is poor. Zebrowski is fluently bilingual and the NDP are the only party to advocate to make Ontario a bilingual province. The NDP has alot of growth room here. Perhaps not enough to win it, but they have enough clout on francophone issues, student issues and housing issues to make gains. Aswell there are many bitter Liberals over the Meilleur/Merner issue thus more growth room for the New Democrats. For the first time in years the Liberals are going to need to campaign hard to keep this one. Traditional numbers say this is a Liberal safe seat, it won't be so safe if it's taken for granted.
14/02/03 El Predicto
I can't believe Ottawa-Vanier hasn't been called yet. It's the safest Liberal seat in Ontario. Liberal candidate Madeleine Meillure is popular and high profile in the city. Even if former Liberal and current independant MPP Claudette Boyer runs on her own this time, she can't take away enough Liberal votes to stop Madeleine from taking this seat in a walk. Mark this riding down for the Liberals.
17/01/03 Taylor
I agree with the last post: This is a Liberal riding, not a Claudette Boyer riding. Whether Claudette runs as an Independent, or chooses to not to run at all, the outcome will be the same: Ottawa-Vanier will be painted Liberal Red.
07/11/02 Andrew Cox
Email: andrewcox101@hotmail.com
Independents are a rarity in Ontario politics. Peter North's win in Elgin in 1995 was "a perfect storm", coming up between a collapsing NDP, suspicion of the PCs and antipathy to the Liberal to win the first independent seat in 75 years. Ottawa-Vanier is no perfect storm seat. Basically, its as Liberal as Pierre Trudeau's bones. Boyer will carry, say 5% to 10% as personal votes if she runs as an independent, but most of her vote was "Liberal" not "Boyer" in 1999. She would need to take more than 20% of the vote from the Liberals 53% to make it a race, and that won't happen. Her coattails were diminished by a conviction for obstruction of justice, the charge that led to her dismissal from the Liberals. A credible Liberal candidate, like Ottawa Councillor Madeleine Meilleur, would mean another Grit win here.
28/10/02 C.Sanders
Well technically she cannot run as a Liberal as she has been ejected from caucus as well as denounced the right to put her name in at the Liberal nomination meeting, which is comming shortly. So whoever the wins the nomination(M.Meilleur, David Merner...) will win the seat. Don't count Claudette Boyer out though, she can still run as an independent with "Liberal" values and win. A very good and dedicated Member!!!
22/10/02 S. Webb
Is there any doubt??? Claudette Boyer could run, criminal record and all, as a Grit and win big here...
22/10/02 Craig
For the first time in ages, we have a race here, assuming Claudette Boyer runs as an independent. If she does, the voters have to decide: go with herself or her old party? That could determine the winner. I think, in the end, Boyer will win on her own if she runs. If she does not, Liberals will win easily.

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