Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Ottawa South

Last Update:
9:50 PM 30/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
17 October 2002

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
Dalton McGuinty
Progressive Conservative:
Richard Raymond
New Democratic Party:
James Maclaren
Green Party:

Dalton McGuinty

Federal MP:
Hon. John Manley

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

22707 49.59%

19337 42.23%

2655 5.8%

724 1.58%

243 0.53%

121 0.26%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality13 908
John Manley
26 585 51.3%
Brad Darbyson
12 677 24.5%
Kevin Lister
8 096 15.6%
Jeannie Page
3 463 6.7%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation64.40%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born71.82%
Ontario Born51.57%
Visible Minority23.08%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$170973

College/Trade School21305

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30/09/03 Paul
I would like to understand why Richard Raymond's current radio ads are using the tag line "choose change". Although he is not the incumbent in his riding, why would a PC representative use the tag line that the Liberals have been pitching from day 1 across the province. Chances are that an uneducated voter would go to the polls and more likely associate the tag line with the liberals and not Richard Raymond. Bad marketing!
22/09/03 JGH
The ratio of lawn signs in Alta Vista (the neighbourhood that Dalton and I share) is running at about 57%:38%:5% Liberal:PC:NDP. Not a huge surprise. The really interesting thing is that almost nobody has signs up this election. On my street, there are perhaps 55 homes, of which only 6 have signs (3 PC, 3 Libs). Seems to be indicative of the whole election campaign - there are a bunch of people who can barely be enthused to support any campaign at all. I wonder if we'll see a record low turnout at the polls. Certainly my neighbours can't be bothered to discuss the election.If Dalton is to win decisively, he will have to kill the Tories in Canterbury, Hunt Club et al, which probably won't happen. My guess is he will win by a couple of thousand votes, but won't blow out the PCs. At this point (pre-debate) let's call it McGuinty 55%, Raymond 40%, McLaren 4%, Other 1%.
03/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
I am going to make the shocking prediction that all three leaders keep their seats. While my alias may suggest that I wonder exactly want kind of leader McGuinty would make, it is difficult to see the riding being anything other than Liberal, also being Mr. Manley's backyard at the federal level.
19/08/03 AC
On 31 July, Dean writes that the Tory vote has evaporated (I think so... Eves is just not Harris. And you know what else evaporated? The ice in my fridge when the power went off.) The strong Ottawa South team and exposure of a much, much stronger, confident, ready-to-govern McGuinty on television for 28 straight days, combined with the fact that the whole riding is now familiar with him (including the Greenboro - Hunt Club sectors) which was not the case in 1999, will ensure an increased McGuinty victory here. Not to mention Dalton's personal work on the CHEO fight (it's in the riding) education and health, Ottawa family background, etc. etc. etc. Put the red flag on top, which was missing in the last pro-Liberal prediction. Then go back to watching Ottawa West -- Nepean, where there is a tough race that Jim Watson and the Liberal team are working hard to win all summer, even! Out of bounds prediction: Liberal there too.
31/07/03 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
The PCs ran incredibly well here in 1999 to come so close to McGuinty. However, the strong pro-PC trend in 1999 in the Ottawa region has evaporated (in my view) and I believe that the Liberals will run well, at least and especially in McGuinty's riding, I would expect a victory in the 6,000-8,000 vote range.
26/06/03 Mike in Etobicoke Centre
Email: snowstormcanuck@yahoo.com
Previous poster stated "people know he is not up to the job of Premier." Sounds like perfect toting from a blatant PC partisan. Surge in liberal support province wide + leaders usually outpreform other ridings and their parties as a whole = easy liberal victory.
24/06/03 Neil J.
That last comment was just crazy. That person even used the "not up to the job" line which is being re-used once again. That was so 1999. It shows how much creativity and vision the Conservatives have! Well welcome to the new millennium! The conservatives are in big trouble with voters. They delayed the election from the spring because they now see that they will lose badly. I'm predicting 65 to 70 seats for the Liberals. I feel the PCs are really losing touch with many voters. I also feel much of the NDP vote will swing to the Liberals. Now Dalton McGuinty may not win his riding by a major landslide he will do much better than in 1999.
29/05/03 JR Villemaire
Ontario Liberal Leader Dalton McGuinty should not be assured to be re-elected in Ottawa South. The Conservative candidate in 1999 got 42% of the popular vote to McGuinty's 49%. Dalton McGuinty is not a popular politician and people know he is not up to the job of Premier. So why re-elect him as their MPP? I predict a Tory win in Ottawa South.
27/05/03 Craig
Dalton McGuinty got a surprising scare last time with a no-name candidate, but I don't see it happening this time unless the Tories do nothing but bash Dalton in their campaign (in which case they will lose many seats to gain this one). The hospital fights and education cuts will dominate the headlines in Ottawa, the lack of a union base here to support the NDP and Dalton is capable of taking votes at centre-right (which would otherwise be Tory votes) adds up to a Liberal win. Predicted results: LIB 53%, PC 33%, NDP 8%, Green 3%.
25/04/03 Grizz
Party leaders usually win their seats, especially when the party stands a chance of forming the government. Dalton will be re-elected.
12/03/03 JGH
I'm nowhere close to being a Liberal partisan, but all signs point to a McGuinty win here. The government's decision on redirecting cardiac operations from CHEO in this riding to Toronto was massively unpopular in this riding, which includes the hospital. McGuinty's only helped by the CHEO backlash.
10/03/03 A Cameron
McGuinty wins strongly at home; the new parts of the riding get to know and like him after being unfamiliar with him in 1999
17/02/03 LRAC
I am not a supporter of the Liberals but folks, the leader is safe in his seat. Nicholson gave McGimpy a good run for his money in 99 but doubtful that will happen again. And to whoever posted that a "this riding is mostly suburban (it has been hit hard by Tory cuts, especially with hospitals and schools..." Give me a break; look at the 905, very similar to Ottawa-South and that's where the Tories win. McGuinty will be re-elected without a problem.
30/01/03 JJ
My mind tells me Dalton. My senses tell me Dalton. My mind adds, however, one proviso. The Tory Campaign 03 really could get built on almost nothing but Dalton-bashing. Ladies and gentlemen, grab your weathervanes... How could this effect him at home? Something to think about. Who'd have called Peterson down in 90?
14/01/03 Josef Kunzler
Email: josef_kunzler@hotmail.com
#1. Dalton, no matter how absent he is from ze House, is going to stand in the next election as Grit Leader unless he drinks a Gord Special (i.e. DUI), pulls a felony or Sandra "Lady Churchill" Pupatello has enough of him and sends him packing. All of which are unlikely, we hope.
#2. The Next Premier of Ontario WILL be Dalton McGuinty. He's got ze Deputy from Heaven, an all-star team who can boast of their own accomplishments and as a team. Lastly, Ottawa South can get irritated all they want about his egoistic behavior (if you see his party website, you'd know what I'd mean - look at all the photos of him and the lack of acknowledgement of his teammates' accomplishments) but they'd be fools not to send him back.
08/01/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Except that Dilton McDoily went from a surprisingly easy reelection over a Tory "star" candidate in 1995, when he wasn't yet leader, to a surprisingly tight race w/a Tory nobody in 1999, when he *was* leader. That said, I doubt his handlers will allow another 1999-style scare to happen again. And who knows--by 2004 we might have something unprecedented: the exact same riding held simultaneously by Ontario's Premier and Canada's Prime Minister...
21/10/02 Bryan
Though I disagree that the Dalton could win this seat as a backbencher, as leader he will win. This seat is hardly the safest Liberal seat in the province, but Dalton's popularity and the fact that he's leader will carry the day. Liberals to hold.
16/10/02 Craig
Dalton McGuinty should run again, meaning this riding is a lock for the Liberals. Even if the Tories somehow nominate a strong candidate here, they should finish a distant second, despite the fact this riding is mostly suburban (it has been hit hard by Tory cuts, especially with hospitals and schools, and Dalton's personal popularity here is very high...he could win as a backbencher)

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