Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003


Last Update:
4:05 PM 01/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
4:05 PM 01/10/2003

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
Kevin Flynn
Progressive Conservative:
Kurt Franklin
New Democratic Party:
Anwar Naqvi
Green Party:

Gary Carr

Federal MP:
Bonnie Brown

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

27767 61.9%

14689 32.75%

1667 3.72%

530 1.18%

202 0.45%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality9 530
M.A. Bonnie Brown
23 074 47.7%
Dan Ferrone
13 544 28%
Rick Byers
9 589 19.8%
Willie Lambert
1 335 2.8%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation71.30%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born70.85%
Ontario Born56.12%
Visible Minority9.00%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$259413

College/Trade School23010

Authorized by the CFO for the Oakville Provincial Liberal Association
01/10/03 October Road
There's no question that Kurt Franklin won't win Oakville by the same amount as Gary Carr did last time. Franklin is not as popular as Carr and the Tories aren't going to win this election. However, Franklin has built a solid reputation in the community for his work on council and he doesn't offend any of the traditional Tory support that is still there in Oakville. Kevin Flynn will come close but Franklin will win by 1500 votes.
01/10/03 The Big Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
I have to wonder (much like Bortron) to where all those (bitter?) Tory posters/supporters who seemed to get offended if one predicted a Liberal gain in the 905. Despite this I have to agree with Bar Harbour that there is just too much Bay street influence here for it to go Liberal. Flynn is a strong candidate and this will for sure be a close race (dare I say one that will go late into the evening) but my instincts are telling me that Franklin will be the one on top at the end of the evening (albeit by a small margin).
30/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
Come on! This riding should be bedrock Tory. Tossup my eye! If Eves' tax warnings are going to take hold anywhere, they will pad an already strong Tory margin of victory in Oakville.
30/09/03 Bortron
I find it quite interesting to see how those who predicted a "cakewalk" for the Tories seemed to have vanished and stopped submitting emails ... it seems they have come to the realization that the Eves Tories, reeling from a string of poor media reviews and even worse policy decisions have found themselves in an extremely heated race where all indications point to a Liberal victory in a historically Tory town. Flynn is a stronger candidate than Franklin, with far more experience in issues that are of greater importance today to Oakville voters than they were during the last election (ie green space, social services) The race will remain close, but Gary Carr is not running, and a strong, financially stable Liberal platform is keeping the Grit boat afloat in Oakville. Flynn is going to Queens Park.
30/09/03 Bar Harbour
There's just too much old money and Bay Street money in Oakville for Kevin Flynn to beat Kurt Franklin. It's that type of support that resists switching with the polls and comes out to vote for the party they've supported their whole adult lives. One more factor that will help Franklin is that there are a lot of people who are uncomfortable with the way Flynn threw his lot in with the Oakville Green people. There is growing concern about how Oakville Green is throwing it's weight around and electing Franklin would be a way for many people in this riding to send this group a message. Kurt Franklin will be one of the very few new Conservative MPP's in the next legislature.
28/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
I must agree with Andrew Cox. Halton is the least likely place in 905 for switching (Chudleigh and Jackson will probably both win) but Oakville could still change hands. We are talking about a 35% shift in 905 and without Gary Carr running this will likely be more than average so Kevin Flynn is heading to Queen's Park. (A year ago, I never thought I would have been writing this.)
28/09/03 Andrew Cox
Liberal gain. I found Harold's submission below covered all the major bases. Let me just add a couple points. 1) The polls show the Grits up by 11% in the 905. Compare that to down 25% in 1999. We are talking about 10 seats changing hands, minimum. 2) Rick Mackie had Flynn as a possible cabinet minister in the Globe. The fine people of Oakville know the math. Local cabinet minister + close local election = lots of local infrastructure spending. MMMmmmm. Infrastructure.
25/09/03 harold
Email: panderson7cogeco.ca
rumour on the street is that the tories are in panic mode in Oakville. the conditions are the optimal conditions for oakville liberal 1. the tory campaign has bombed 2. liberals will win election 3. an anti abortion candidate Theresa tritt (who is a really really nice person) to place religious votes 4. many oakville conservatives preferred a true conservative jim flaherty not voting gets them what they really want quicker 5. absolutely no ndp issue as this is not an ndp targetted riding 6. a popular regional councillor kevin Flynn 7. a lot of oakville residents take pride in their excellent public high schools oakville trafalgar and white oaks (and there are many more) the private school tax credit is a removal of funds from the public system 8. gary carrs battle with the conservatives, gary carr was well liked, his public battle with the conservatives only increased his popularity. as an over thirty years resident - if the liberals are going to win these are the conditions...eh flynn by 700
25/09/03 David
This will be one of the many swing ridings. Flynn has a high profile in Oakville and is a hard working candidate. Suppport here over the past few years has been personal for Gary Carr. But even he was critical of the Eves infobudget and is now gone. Flynn as a councillor is able to articulate the damage done to municipalities by provincial downloading. Even individuals in supposedly well to do ridings have to drink the water or eat the meat or hope the lights come on and I think they are sceptical of this governments record on these issues. Many former Tories may sit on their hands this time around. Swing to Liberals.
Just to point out a piece of interesting infomation for the last poster, in 1990 when the Grits swept to power, this riding went PC. I am convinced that Eves will sweep the 905 belt and Oakville will be one of those true-blue seats! Franklin will win, not by a huge margin, but he will win none the less.
24/09/03 lrs
if Carr was running would be PC hold with a reduced plurality. Since an open seat and Liberals win here federally- then Liberals may take this seat- a loss here will show how badly the Tories are doing- will Eves' performance in debate stop the bleeding of support to Liberals? if later polls show an even split in 905 then I may have to change my mind-if NDP vote stays weak in this area will help a possible Liberal win- It may be a seat decided late on October 2 as a lot of 905 seats will be- this will be the type of seat that will show how accurate everyone's collective wisdom will be in determining how close we will be in picking seats on this link
22/09/03 Nick
Email: spamgoeshere@cogeco.ca
There is no way this riding is going to the Liberals and I have to wonder why it is in the Tory/PC column. Only in 1987 did this riding (as Oakville South) ever go Liberal and every time since at least 1975 it has been a Tory Riding, even back when the party only had 13 seats in the legislature. Even if the Tory's were reduced to Third Party status in this election Oakville would still elect a Tory MPP. This riding is NOT going to the Liberals in any way, shape or form. Stop dreaming!
04/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
The riding of James Snow and Gary Carr will unlikely go Liberal. This should be in the Tory column. Oakville is one of the more affluent ridings in the country. Polling date consistently indicates that Eves does better in higher income and 905 groups, and that is certainly Oakville. Halton region is as true blue as it gets.
01/09/03 TD
Email: pharris@uwo.ca
Whoever thinks the Liberals will come within 5,000 votes is smoking something funny. First of all the Liberal Candidate is running municipally. This is because he even knows he is going to loose. If the Tories won 6 seats in the province this would probably be one of them. Change this one to Tory and stop dreaming....
25/08/03 Reality Check
David is in serious need of a reality check. He needs to remember we're talking about Oakville here. Voters in Oakville work on Bay Street and take the GO Train back to their very expensive homes. These are the people who've benefitted most from the Common Sense Revolution and they aren't ready to see it end. Oakville has no hospital crisis like other parts of the province and their schools are are new or very well taken care of. They haven't suffered as much as other areas when the Tories made cuts to services. As long as Kurt Franklin isn't hit by a major scandal, voters in Oakville will do what they always do. Vote for the Tory candidate even if he's not that high profile. I'm not saying Kevin Flynn is a weak candidate. He's actually quite a good candidate for the Liberals and without Gary Carr, Flynn will pick up votes. What Kevin won't be able to do is turn enough votes to make up for the 13,000 vote margin he lost by in 1999. There are only so many ridings that are actually in play in this election. Oakville just isn't one of them.
21/08/03 Hootie
You have to live in the area to understand just how blue a place Oakville really is. While Franklin is not quite as well known as Flynn, Kurt is generally recognized for doing a good job on council. Flynn has just been there longer. Now if the Tories had ended up with a terrible candidate, maybe Flynn might have had a chance. Franklin knows his Tory base and they feel more than comfortable voting for him. Flynn may come closer to Franklin than he did to Gary Carr in 1999 but there is no way Oakville would elect a Liberal. It's just not that kind of town.
10/08/03 David
Kevin Flynn has a much higher profile in Oakville than Kurt Franklin. Major issues in Oakville recently have related to transportation, growth, sprawl, air and water quality. Flynn has been actively involved in these and many other issues, he has good business and community connections, he speaks very well, and he is sincere. Franklin will certainly garner a fair share of the votes in Oakville mainly because he is wearing Tory blue and he does have some profile as a councillor, but I predict a Liberal victory.
18/07/03 Lizard
Oakville will stay with the Tories this election. Franklin is much more popular on city council than Flynn and Kurt will use the Tory base in Oakville to take him to an easy victory.
31/05/03 Hootie
There was more speculation in the local paper this week about whether Kevin Flynn will give up his long shot chance at getting elected provincially to run for a sure shot at becoming mayor of Oakville. Flynn is ducking the question which makes it look like he's seriously thinking about what he's going to do. Nobody could beat Kevin if he ran for mayor in November and he knows it.
22/05/03 Grizz
With all the nonesense about Flynn running off to municipal politics if a spring election isn't called will result in the Conservatives keeping this seat.
12/05/03 JustCuz
PC - no question! Franklin will win hands down, and not becuase Flynn is going to drop out if there is a fall election, because he and his party are well regarded in Oakville. Here is Mr. Flynn in a nutshell:
- Flynn is a long standing NDP that realized that the NDP will never win in Oakville so he switched sides to better his chances of a victory (talk about principal!?!)
- Flynn voted for the expansion of Oakville's urban bourdaries at Regional Council (ROPA 8) a decade ago and now is, with his ecco-terrorist pals at Oakville Green, trying his best to bankrupt the town by challenging the the Town's plans to come into conformity with the very policy he voted for (OPA198). All this costing millions of dollars of tax money for absolutely nothing.
- He has run for Regional Chair and lost, run for MPP and lost.
- If he drops out of running for the MPP post becuase he wants to be Mayor, he will be out of politics for good! The Liberals will "dis" him becuase they will be left without a candidate and scambling for an 11th hour replacement. The Tory's would never vote for him - so all that would be left would be the handful of his former party pals at the NDP and the Oakville Green Tree Huggers Club. Flynn has to stay and see this thing out.
02/05/03 Hootie
There is a lot of talk in Oakville that is there is no spring election, the Grits will lose Kevin Flynn as their candidate. Flynn would drop out of the provincial race to run for mayor of Oakville where he has a very good chance of winning. Since the Grits could not come up with anyone as well known as Flynn to run for them, Franklin would be victorious.
04/04/03 Petrol Pete
Email: petrolpete@hotmail.com
Frankly, Franklin gets the franchise. I cannot believe this one is still a toss up! This riding went blue in 90 which puts it in the top 15 PC seats. Extremely high average income, nearly 80% home ownership? A local councillor of some profile and long standing Tory ties to get a few party bucks pored into the area just in case? Colour this one dark blue.
01/04/03 THE GAMBLER
The Gambler is putting his money on Kurt Franklin to win Oakville. PC Franklin and LIB Kevin Flynn are both on city council so they start out even. Franklin has the big advantage of wearing the blue PC jersey which is still the colour of choice in Oakville. That will be the difference as Franklin crosses the finish line with a big lead. Empty your bank account and put the money on Franklin.
29/03/03 Harold
The Tory Candidate is Curt Franklin. The very credible and well liked Mayor Ann Mulvale who would have been a star candidate for the Tories did not run. A big surprise was the dismal turn out at the nomination. Less than 200 voted. This is surprising in a town where PC functions often turn out 1000. Even the PC leadership had significantly more. Hmmmmm. Also, the sleeper issue is that Curt Franklin does not live in the riding.
28/03/03 El Predicto
The Tories nominated Oakville city councillor, Kurt Franklin on March 26. While Franklin is not Oakville Mayor Mulvale, he is a strong enough candidate to win this very Tory riding. Franklin has the business connections to hold on to the Tory base in Oakville. This is as safe a Tory riding as you'll find in Ontario.
25/03/03 El Predicto
Gary Carr is riding off into the sunset and taking shots at Ernie Eves over the made for television budget. This makes for a good story but it doesn't mean the Tories are going to give up a riding they won by 14,000 votes in 1999. Oakville is Tory Town, Ontario and Ernie Eves could run a dog in this riding and still keep the seat. Right now the Tories are trying to line up Oakville Mayor, Ann Mulvale to run for them. If she gets in the race they'll keep their margin of victory from last time. If Mulvale doesn't run then the Tories will only win this seat by 8,000 votes.
21/03/03 Craig
Could conditions possibly be better for the Liberals here? The incumbent 'Tory' (acting more like a Liberal) Gary Carr, is stepping down and is attacking Eves as well over the budget - he might be supporting the Liberal candidate! This riding is a unique hybrid of blue-collar union workers and suburban 905 communities, and with the Liberals and Tories polling neck-and-neck in the 905 area, ridings like Oakville are sure to turn around.
18/03/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
If in Burlington, natural Tory strength is dampered by Cam Jackson, in Oakville the inherent strength of Gary Carr has now officially outstripped that of his party--and he isn't running again. Not only that, but the standard-bearer battle to succeed him has been wraught with torture; and the Liberal candidate is the one who ran credibly well (under the circumstances) in 1999. Oakville's always been a harbour of "secret" non-Tory strength, thanks to Ford and other QEW-belt industry; thus a shock backlash Tory defeat is not out of the question--it's still not enough to make me withhold a PC prediction, but I'm prepared to do so, if necessary...
16/03/03 Rob D.
Not only is Gary Carr not running again, but he just tore a strip off the premier on his way out: Speaker urges backbench revolt over budget
15/03/03 TM
Gary Carr is not running in the next election. This riding is up for grabs.
20/10/02 P H
Oakville has been Tory forever and the only reason it was lost by less than 100 votes in 1987 is because the incumbent MPP came out supporting gay rights. It was won back in 1990 and Gary Carr has been in cruise control ever since. A recent poll showed him to be the most popular politician in Oakville, more popular than the MP and Mayor. If the Liberals think they have a shot at this riding they're dreaming. I know that there are rumors about Carr not running again but the Tories will for sure have a strong replacement. Tories in a cake walk!

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