Northumberland

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Northumberland

Last Update:
4:39 PM 07/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
9:34 PM 30/09/2003

Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)

Liberal Party:
Lou Rinaldi

Progressive Conservative:
Doug Galt

New Democratic Party:
Murray Wepler

Green Party:
Derek Kelly

Incumbent:

Doug Galt

Federal MP:

Paul Harold Macklin

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 903

*DOUG GALT

20535 45.99%

CAROLYN CAMPBELL

19632 43.97%

MURRAY WEPPLER

2820 6.32%

TOM LAWSON

1194 2.67%

JIM PSIHOGIOS

370 0.83%

PASCALE LEVERT

99 0.22%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 8 699

Paul Harold Macklin

20 109 45.9%

Rick Norlock

11 410 26%

Ralph James Zarboni

8 768 20%

Ben Burd

2 141 4.9%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 102424

1996 98971

1991 95132

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 27040

20-39 26630

40-59 24715

60+ 20595

Avg Household Income
$51867

Labour Participation 62.20%

Unemployment 10.10%

Canadian Citizen
98.48%

Canadian Born 89.87%

Ontario Born 79.23%

Immigrant 10.00%

Visible Minority 1.74%

Aboriginal 1.47%

First Language

English 90455

French 1730

Residence

House 82.73%

Apartment 16.02%

Owned 73.19%

Rented 26.81%

Avg Dwelling Value $138578

Education

University 10615

College/Trade School 24205

Secondary 34790

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	01/10/03	SB Email:
Clearly this riding is going to stay PC. Rinaldi is unknown in the Port Hope/Cobourg area where this riding is won or lost. Galt is very popular here and he will keep his seat by a significant margin.
	30/09/03	Old Bruce Boy Email: dsimms@arvotek.net
I hate to say it, but I think that this riding will stay PC. The sign battle favours the Liberals but a lot of that is on public land. Doug Galt seems very popular. My father in law was a strong NDP and union supporter but is voting for Galt. He thinks that Galt has done a good job. Maybe he has.
	30/09/03	The End Email:
There's only one reason why Northumberland won't go Liberal and that's Lou Rinaldi. Rinaldi is too unpopular for even a Liberal wave to carry him to victory. If the Liberals had stuck with Carolyn Campbell, they would have won by 5000 votes but with Rinaldi as their candidate, Doug Galt will win by 1000 votes.
	29/09/03	Gerry Kennedy Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
Clearly going Liberal. I understand that Galt's appointment to cabinet will make him a better candidate than he was in '99 but Rinaldi is an equally strong candidate, if not better. We must remember that this seat is just east of Oshawa, meaning it might be experiencing some effects of the 905 big-time switch. Even if it is not, the aforementioned factors will prevent Galt from being able to prevent the Liberal switch.
	29/09/03	WK Email:
Definitely Liberal. Lou Rinaldi will win the towns of Port Hope and Cobourg in the west of the riding as well Brighton (where he is mayor) and Trenton in the east. Doug Galt's support is limited to the more rural parts of Northumberland County plus a dwindling number of die-hards in the towns. Rinaldi 23,000; Galt 15,000; Weppler (NDP) 4,000; Kelly (Green) 1,000.
	28/09/03	UT Email:
Watch this riding go liberal. It appears by the signage around the whole county, that either 1- Doug Galt's campaign has not received as much funds as they previously have received and are unable to financially afford to to put up as many signs, or 2- people are not feeling comfortable about showing public support for Doug Galt and his party. In fact, talking to numerous people, I have yet to hear of much public support being put forward for Doug Galt. Doug has had support in the rural areas of Northumberland, but as Rinaldi is a strong rural candidate, Doug Galt can no longer depend on the rural support of previous years. Another interesting event taking place is the growing support for the NDP in this riding. It is showing up by the increased placement of lawn signs by the NDP and the much increased attendance by new supporters at a very recent NDP gathering. It strongly appears that Doug Galt has lost his foundation of support and the NDP and liberals are reaping the benefits.
	24/09/03	Cosmonaut Email:
For what its worth, Trenton, sorry Quinte West, mayor Bob Campney appeared and spoke at Rinaldi's office opening in Trenton. He had some kind words about Rinaldi's record as mayor of the amlagamated Brightons. Rinaldi was mayor of Brighton Township and defeated the incumbent mayor of the town of Brighton when the two merged. I don't know if it was an endorsement by Campney but I haven't seen anything in the local rags about him appearing at the opening of Galt's office. This riding is difficult to get a handle on as it is made up of several parts. The Eastern part of Trenton and Brighton tend to have a closer relationship with Belleville than with the Western part in Cobourg and Port Hope. Then there is the northern parts such as Campbellford which tend to associate with Peterborough.
	24/09/03	Christopher J. Currie Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
Other contributers to this board have claimed that Lou Rinaldi is a weak candidate. Perhaps. But Doug Galt is certainly a weak incumbent (a consummate Common Sense Revolution yes-man, completely lacking in individual initiative). Unless the provincial picture changes in the next week, he's history. If the Liberals are still ahead by 8% or more on 30 September, call this one a Liberal gain.
	23/09/03	Young Person Email: carltoncashbox@aol.com
Last night in Roseneath at the All Candidates Night, Rinaldi looked weak compared to Galt. He had to frequently consult his campaign book for answers. He just attacked the present government rather than informed voters what he would do in office. Rinaldi just made Galt look even better. As newspapers in the riding are reporting same-sex marriage to be a hot issue, I think Rinaldi is caught on this one since his party supports same-sex marriage.
	22/09/03	Email:
I guess all I can say to those who are predicting Doug Galt in this election is "good luck with that". Wake up, folks. Take a look at the polls. Galt, who only won by 903 votes last time, doesn't stand a chance. Liberal win.
	23/09/03	Andrew Cox Email:
Liberal pick up. Analysis: I'm glad I called this one early, because I think it is definately going to change hands. The latest Ipsos-Reid backs me up with data. In Eastern Ontario, the Grits are out ahead by 24%, the widest margin in the province for them. (Lib 54%, PC 30%, NDP 8%). Combine that will faltering numbers for the PCs in rural Ontario, where they now trail the Grits (Lib 48%, PC 34%, NDP 11%) and you have a big problem for the PCs here. This riding of small towns and rural stretches looks like an archetype of the riding the Grits are casting for and catching.
	22/09/03	WK Email:
This is a close riding in which the Liberals currently have the edge. Support for Rinaldi/McGinty has hardened. At the same time, Galt/Eves supporters aren't wavering. The uncommitted will decide it, and right now they are in favour of the Liberals, as province-wide polls would suggest. The way I see it, there will be about 43,000 votes cast in Northumberland and Galt needs almost 20,000 to stay in office. I don't think there are 20,000 adults in Northumberland who will trust Galt and the Tories to run things for another four years.
	21/09/03	The Big Ape Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
The last few postings have very good points. With the NDP having the best candidate of the 3 big parties, this is going to hurt the Liberal's chances of taking this riding. However I am still not ready to call it for the PC yet. The Liberals still have a huge lead in the polls and are looking like they'll get a large majority. At times like that, swing ridings often go with the party likely to form the government (in the hopes of getting more goodies from the party in power). Still the lackluster of the Liberal candidate makes this one a tough one to call.
	20/09/03	Slippy Slider Email:
If you ask me, Lou Rinaldi didn't have a chance to be re-elected mayor this fall let alone beat Doug Galt in a riding race. Most people I know are don't like the way Rinaldi ran city hall and won't vote for him because of that history. Don't forget all the money Doug Galt has handed out in over sized cheques. Galt has bought himself a lot of friends with that money and they'll be voting for him. Don't forget that there are a lot of hunters and gun owners in Northumberland who've been out there working very hard to defeat Rinaldi because of Bill C-68. Another Liberal candidate might have given Galt a run for his money but Rinaldi doesn't have the record or the campaign team to beat Doug Galt in a rural riding like this one is.
	19/09/03	Speed Racer Email:
The last person on this site has a point. The NDP have the best candidate of a poor lot in Northumberland. Of the three main candidates, Lou Rinaldi is easily the weakest. His municipal record has a lot more negatives than positives. Doug Galt is probably going to win again because the Liberals went with Rinaldi.
	17/09/03	Email:
A comment on the Liberal and Tory "rallies" puff! Oilca turns up and asks that everybody put more signs in the ground. Problem was that the 60 (one figure) to 100 (the other media guess) are too old and lazy to put up signs. Whitehairs do not do work, go to rallies maybe. The point is if only 75 people turn up to see Ernie in the middle of the day in the middle of the riding Galt's people have a lot of work to do. The majority of the people on the street are cynical about all candidates and as usual the best candidate on the hustings is the NDPer, but that bump will translate to a tory squeaker.
	15/09/03	the tipster Email:
Frankly, I don't know what the localboy is talking about, but the Tories are certainly not going to get ANY Liberal votes. And if Tories are going to the NDP, its just another nail in Doug Galt's coffin.
	11/09/03	Frozen Toast Email:
Dalton McGuinty had his smallest rally of the campaign in Northumberland yesterday. Less than 100 people showed up to hear the Liberal leader speak at the Rinaldi headquarters. This is no surprise to anyone who knows how unpopular Rinaldi is in this riding. Even the long time Liberals who always come out at election time are nowhere to be found. Rinaldi can't win this seat. If I were Doug Galt, I'd be feeling pretty confident because he's going to get another term in office.
	09/09/03	localboy Email:
news from the track is that NDP signs are flying out of the door going to disaffected tories. Thus the ndp vote is up, tories will get some libs because of the hate-on for rinaldi and DG will squeak through even though the votes are skewed.
	04/09/03	M.S. Email:
Galt won this, not on his own strength, but on Tory coat tails last time. With Eves trailing in the polls, and the multitude of stupid things said and done by Galt, those coat tails won't be nearly big enough this time. The Tories will definitely lose here.
	01/09/03	Young Person Email: carltoncashbox@aol.com
In response to a previous submission regarding whether or not a study has been conducted on voters' decisions being based on the local candidate, party or leader, I refer to Carleton University's Jon Pammett. He is quite knowledgeable in this area and has published research showing that a larger percentage of voters will choose the party first, then leaders (leadership) and then local candidates. The difficulty, however, is his research is based on federal elections. For this discussion we are talking about a provincial election and much less published research can be found on provincial voting behaviour. In a sense, because the issues in a provincial election are much closer to the people (i.e. education, municipal matters, health care), I think the candidate DOES matter. Certainly one will read or watch the province-wide media and base their decision on that. But I submit that many who are following closely will be looking at the candidate and reading/watching the Northumberland media. Let's not forget the "coffee shop" talk as well. After all, when Northumberland voters go to the polls they're making a mark next to the local candidate, not Eves-McGuinty-Hampton. Again, I'm predicting Galt as he appears to be the stronger and more exprienced candidate.
	27/08/03	TDK Email:
I disagree with MDC. I also live in the west of this riding. The Liberals did well in Cobourg and Port Hope in the last election, and polls suggest this trend will continue in this election. What the Liberals needed was a candidate with a higher profile elsewhere in the riding to push them over the top, and they got that this time.
	26/08/03	Frozen Toast Email:
One advantage Doug Galt has over Lou Rinaldi is that the Tories have much more agriculture policy than the Liberals do this time. Agriculture Minister, Helen Johns has visited Northumberland a number of times this year to help shore up the farmer vote. Galt has better ties to the agriculture community that Rinaldi does. If the Northumberland farmers vote for Galt in large numbers, he's going to win this riding without any doubt at all.
	15/08/03	MDC Email:
Afraid that this was Carolyn Campbell's big chance this fall. Alas the choice of Rinaldi will cost the grits, as a resident of the western region of this riding I will attest to the fact he is an unknown around the Port Hope/Cobourg area where this seat is won or lost.
	24/07/03	WD Email:
It occurs to me that one of the reasons people differ in their predictions has to do with how much weight they put on the party leadership issue. Personally, i think people making perdictions on this site put way too much emphasis on the differences/strengths of local candidates -- probably because they're better-informed or more political voters than most. I think for most voters (who, let's face it, don't pay much attention between elections) it comes down to leadership "brand" at the top. Having said that, does anyone know of any studies that have been done on Canadian voters that would indicate what percentage of the vote is influenced by local politics versus provincial leadership?
	24/07/03	WD Email:
Young Person, those are some of the best arguments you've made yet. You make a good case. I'm not sure about your facts, though, on rural ridings. There are exceptions (eastern Ontario, notably), but overall the Tory vote really is quite strong in rural Ontario. Most Tories concede they are NOT popular with seniors. Even the recent tax credit didn't give them much of a bounce. Finally, there is the question of which 905ers/416ers have moved into the riding. I've seen a lot more people move to the area who are upper-middle class types (white collar professionals, the chattering classes who typicaly vote Liberal) than the suburban, blue collar Tory-voting types from the burbs. Time will tell.
	19/07/03	Young Person Email: Carltoncashbox@aol.com
Previous postings which indicate the urban refugees who migrate to Northumberland won't vote Tory is difficult to make. The reason for thinking they rather will vote Tory is because they're from the 905 belt that has voted PC the last two elections. Many people incorrectly associate the Progressive Conservatives with what they call "Rednecks" in rural ridings. Just look at the rural ridings such as Elgin-Middlesex-London, Hastings-Frontenac-Lennox-Addington, Prince Edward-Hastings... they all went Liberal the last election. I associate this trend with feelings of disrespect from Toronto for the rural issues (rural community revitalization, agriculture support, jobs). Certainly one can assume that the reason for Doug Galt starting the Rural Economic Renewal Task Force was to respond to rural Ontario's concerns. Overall, the point is that rednecks are not necessarily supporting the Tories, but rather the Liberals. The ex-urbanites who now live in Cobourg and Port Hope (a great share of the voting population) are evidently going to lean towards the governing PCs. Probably the attraction of lower taxes, economic generation, and benefits for seniors that I recently heard of in the media are going to make urban refugees (many retirees) support Doug Galt.
	19/07/03	Teen Spirit Email:
Lou Rinaldi is one of the worst public speakers I have ever seen. It looks like his campaign team doesn't let him do any speaking unless he reads it off a card. This makes it look like Rinaldi doesn't know what he's talking about. Doug Galt is a very good public speaker and will mop the floor with Rinaldi during the debates. When people see the difference between the two, Galt is assured the victory.
	18/07/03	Hi Tech Email:
Lou Rinaldi can run but he can't hide. The Liberal campaign strategy is to keep Lou out of site and hope people vote Liberal any way. That won't work in Northumberland because Doug Galt is out there working the riding and making sure he has more than enough support to beat Rinaldi. The Liberals can't win with a candidate who they have to keep out of site.
	15/07/03	Scooby Doo Email:
I agree with people who've said that Doug Galt is ripe for defeat in Northumberland. This is very true. What's also true is that the Liberals made a huge mistake letting Lou Rinaldi be there candidate. Lou is the best thing that ever happened to Doug Galt. Lou is also going to help the NDP stage a mild comeback in this riding. I can see the NDP going from 6 per cent in 1999 to at least 10-12 per cent this time. Make no mistake, Doug Galt is going to win. Not because of anything he's done in his time in office, but because the Liberals gave this riding away with Rinaldi.
	15/07/03	WD Email: lutherraz@hotmail.com
Young Person, you're making the very same point I made a few posts ago -- that there is a sizable contingent of urban refugees in this riding. However, you seem to think those people wil vote Tory, which is why I don't think you understand the riding. The long-time and rural residents (rednecks) are Doug's core supporters, not the newcomers. Although they love to stick it to all the antique-shopping, latte-swilling, music-theatre-going ex-urbanites who now live in Cobourg and Port Hope, the rednecks are a dwindling majority. In 1999, when they had fellow redneck-fisherman Mike Harris as a champion, they had lots of reason to vote for the Tories even though the Tories closed Port Hope's Hospital. Galt ran on the coattails of Harris and won -- in fact, this very forum botched the prediction because it went too much by the wishful thinking of lefties in Port Hope who were focussing on the hospital issue and ignored all the other people in this riding who live in Cobourg, Campellford and Brighton. However, you can't go by the results from 1999 because too much has changed. Not only have even more former 416ers moved into Port Hope and Cobourg (as Young Person points out) there is less reason to vote for Doug because he's not supported by a strong leader. To win an election, all you need is for the other guy's vote to stay home -- and unless Doug has significantly beefed up his electoral machine since the last election and has some magic wand that will turn Ernie into Mike -- or Murray Weppler finally finds the charisma that has eluded him all these long years -- that's what will happen. (And Mayor McCheese, by "subtle" I mean that Doug understands the political game and is a smart, (though reddish) Tory -- I think we basically agree on the political landscape but differ on our predictions).
	15/07/03	Young Person Email:
In response to WK (or WD's) comments, I'd like to remind you of the Joint Task Force on Youth Opportunities that both Doug Galt and MP Paul Macklin are working jointly on. This has delivered some complaints from Liberals to Macklin's office. Nonetheless, it shows both are working together and that's what the voters want. I know I'd rather see progress being made versus bickering over political issues. Progress is being made by Doug Galt. History shows that voters have gone one way provincially and another federally. If the Liberals are going to remain in Ottawa, it's likely we will have a PC government provincially. Or does Chretien want it the other way around this time? I'll close by saying that although my vote is already secured, I'm open-minded in my opinion of all candidates in Northumberland and using previous studies of Canadian Politics I firmly believe Doug Galt is going to win.
	12/07/03	WK Email:
Galt delivers cheques, makes friends with former foes, hopes to weather the storm, thinks, oh well, opposition is better than nothing. Rinaldi hunkers in the thrall of his handlers, hopes nobody will notice, thinks, oh well, being mayor isn't so bad if the grown-up game doesn't work out. On balance, the entrenched anti-Galt movement will prevail. Dusty blue signs in the windows of a vacant Galt storefront provide a daily reminder of an election delayed and a party on the Eves of destruction. When Galt was introduced to a huge crowd of people on Canada Day, not a single person applauded; the local mayor and federal MP before him both received a warm welcome. These voters are ready for change.
	11/07/03	Monkey Email:
I have to disagree with WD when he says that Lou Rinaldi could be an "amoeba" and still win Northumberland. There are some ridings in this province where it doesn't matter who the Liberals run, they win anyway. I'm thinking of ridings like Ottawa Vanier and York West. However, Northumberland is not one of these. People in Northumberland still care about who is on their ballot when they vote. There was a lot more organized anti-Tory campaign in this riding in 1999 as the government had closed a local hospital and strategic voting was all the rage. The unions targetted Doug Galt in 1999 but aren't doing that this time. The other reason why Galt is going to win is that Lou Rinaldi is worse than an unknown candidate. He's got a municipal record that is spotty at best and is not a very popular character. So, as far as I can see, Doug Galt will hold the riding.
	11/07/03	Young Person
If we put two and two together, since Lou Rinaldi in your words could be an "amoeba", he simply will not win. More importantly, Doug Galt has a proven track record and has been working dilligently for his constituents. Incumbents get the upper hand and certainly Doug Galt is the superior candidate as you too have signified. Let's not forget that the Progressive Conservative party has only been defeated once in Ontario by the Grits and NDP since George Drew's leadership in the 1940s. Before ending I must disagree with you that the riding is 50% redneck. Have you not been to Warkworth lately? And do you not observe the urban refugees (or did I forget you don't live here)?
	10/07/03	Mayor McCheese Email:
WD is the only person I've ever heard describe Doug Galt as subtle. Galt is about as subtle as a sledgehammer. Galt may not be subtle but he is smart. Smart enough to get the rednecks wound up enough to come out and vote for him, while Galt also manages to get some city support. Right now I think the Liberals have enough support to win a slight majority but it's not going to be enough of a wave for them to win a riding where they're running as bad a candidate as Rinaldi is. Doug Galt will survive.
	07/07/03	WD Email:
Sorry to dissapoint, but I could give a fig who wins this election, really. However, I DID used to live here and I DO take my politics seriously and I AM saying that Lou could an amoeba and the anti-Tory vote would be motivated to come out for him while the pro-Tory vote is NOT motivated to come out for Doug. Essentially, the riding is 50% redneck and those folks don't have a champion in Doug (smart, subtle) or much reason to vote for Eves (who isn't Harris). I think Doug is the better man, but I also think it's likely the people of Northumberland will vote not so much for Lou but against Eves.
	04/07/03	Pound Puppy Email:
Maybe it's just me, but I get suspicious when someone like WD says he lived in the riding. Sounds like a campaign worker to me. I don't live in Northumberland and never have but I think it's pretty clear what will happen there. The braintrust who run the Tory party seem to want to make sure Doug Galt stays in their caucus. To that end, the government has been busy in the last four years putting a lot of taxpayer dollars into Northumberland. Some say this if vote buying. They're right but it still works. Lou Rinaldi may not know it but he was never really in this contest.
	03/07/03	Nomad Email:
The story in Northumberland is not how organized Doug Galt's campaign is. The story is how much Lou Rinaldi is disliked by the voters in this riding. WD is right to say that there are going to be Tories that lose their seats in the election. Galt is just lucky the Liberals didn't find a better candidate who could really threaten his hold on this seat. Galt will win by a larger spread this time.
	02/07/03	WD Email:
Bender, I lived in this riding up until very recently (any I'm still well-connected to the goings-on) and I like Doug just fine. But let's face facts - he has no local organization to speak of, barely beat a Liberal back when the Liberals didn't have their stuff together (and there was less appetite for change) and he's going down with the Eves ship. There are plenty of other Tory ridings that will survive, but not this one. There will be a 2500 vote plurality in the next election going the other way.
	28/06/03	Bender Email:
People from outside this region just don't understand that Doug Galt has worked very hard in his riding and the people here like him. The same cannot be said for Rinaldi. I say Galt wins by at least 2500 votes this fall.
	16/06/03	WD Email:
Young Person: The response to the report (the jump teams, etc) was already decided long before the report was made public and fell well short (my sources tell me) of the response that Doug wanted. When the report was commissioned, Harris and Galt locked horns over the scope of his mandate and Doug lost. Be that as it may, though many people in the riding say they would vote for him, the real question is how motivated the vote is to come out. I like Doug and I think Lou is a weak candidate, but I nevertheless think that in Northumberland you're going to see Lou's vote come out and Doug's will stay home. Come election night, core Tory supporters are going to avoid the polls because they don't like Eves and the direction he's taking the party. Since Doug is a Red Tory, Like Ernie, he's going down with the ship. The only folks who are safe are Tory MPPs who, like Flaherty, have clearly identified themselves on the right side of the party or who have rock-solid local organizations like Tsubouchi. Doug has neither of those in his favour and, because of the odd demographic makeup of the Northumberland riding and the strong impetus for change across the province, I'm calling this one Liberal.
	10/06/03	Young Person Email:
Okay WD, comments accepted. However, I must disagree with you that the Rural Economic Task Force recommendations by Galt weren't accepted by Harris. The proof is in the Ontario Small Town and Rural Development (OSTAR) initiative. That came directly from the T.F. Report. Also, look at the "Jump Team" pilot projects that have taken place in rural communities (e.g. Land O Lakes and Kennilworth). Those were recommended in the report. Secondly, don't be fooled by titles. Even though he's "Minister Without Portfolio", he still has a seat at the Cabinet Table. That's where all the decisions are made and he has a voice. Thirdly, Dr. Galt is loved by his Cabinet colleagues and is respected at Queen's Park. Why else would Eve's have put him in Cabinet? Finally, didn't you see the recent Northumberland polls showing Galt in the lead? It is worth closing with the point that with an election likely to occur in the Fall, Mr. Rinaldi will have to decide if he's running for Mayor or for the Province. He seems to be in a bit of bind.
	09/06/03	Piggly Wiggly Email:
Doug Galt is the kind of guy that once you let him get dug in, he's darn near impossible to get rid of. Lou Rinaldi is to say the least, just plain lousy and doesn't have any hope to get elected. Watch Galt run away with this race.
	06/06/03	WD Email:
Yes, Galt was the front-man on the Rural Economic Renewal Task Force, but the behind-the-scenes word is that much of what Galt wanted to have included as part of the tashk force's mandate didn't make the cut. Harris didn't think much of him at all. While he's better-liked by Eves than he was by Harris, (Doug is more Red Tory than most) Galt still isn't much of a force in Cabinet (he's Minister Without Portfolio, let's not forget) and is, as such, one of the more junior members of Cabinet. In other words, he's not enough if a steak-and-potatoes Tory to appeal to the hardline PC constituency, has very little support from caucus and is likely to fall victim to a Liberal surge across the province as a result. His vote won't be motivated to come out, and the Liberal vote will be. Look at Galt to be the first Cabinet Minister to be predicted to lose on election night.
	04/06/03	Young Person Email:
I believe Dr. Galt will once again win Northumberland. Firstly, his record is extensive. Just look at the way he championed the Rural Economic Renewal Task Force, his leadership in the Agriculture Ministry, and his presence in the riding. He has shown care and concern for his constituents and always gets involved. The Premier has clearly demonstrated faith in Galt by putting him in Cabinet. This hardworking MPP will be rewarded by his constituents.
	28/05/03	Scoop Jackson Email:
My Liberal contacts are telling me that their candidate, Lou Rinaldi looks like one of the weakest candidates they have in this election. In other words, they got the wrong candidate. This mistake is going to end up costing the Liberals a seat they need. The Tories have confirmed my belief that they've stopped giving Doug Galt a lot of air time in the legislature and instead have sent him back to the riding to campaign in person. So you aren't seeing Galt in the spotlight at Queen's Park any more attacking the Liberals. This strategy, combined with the failure of Rinaldi gives the Tories a chance to hold a very important seat.
	23/05/03	WD Email:
Northumberland is an odd riding -- full of good-old-boys on the one hand (the classic 905 crowd so adored by the Tories) Eastern Ontario Liberals on the other hand ... and, on the third hand (this is a riding with a lot of nuclear waste buried in its soil, let's remember) a sizeable contingent of refugees from Yorkville who dig the antique and community theatre scene. The only reason the NDP hasn't made more ground in the riding is because they keep running the wholly underwhelming Murray Wepler. No word on how the Green Party candidate stacks up, but Wepler shouldn't count on placing third without a fight. This is a riding that has strong Liberal tendencies which, combined with the Tories' recent malaise and an nearly-invisible MPP should be enough to put the Liberals on top.
	21/05/03	Grizz Email:
El Predicto has some very compelling arguments for a Tory victory here, but I am not 100% certain that Northumberland will go blue again. I keep saying that many people want change and point to Quebec as an example (with the PQ getting to ol' heave-ho last month) of what can happen when the winds of change start blowing. In light of that I'll keep this as an I'm-not-too-sure-who-will-win riding.
	08/05/03	easyrider Email:
Northumberland has always been a swing riding, check the history. All you need to win this riding is a five point difference in the provincial trend. Hence weak candidates sometimes lose and strong ones definitely win if they are in the winning party. You can run a party dog and still win Dalton or Ernie will do it for you. This time the local differences will be the 'outing' of the Greens (their social policy is written by Ayn Rand) and the subsequent return of those votes to the NDP. There will be enough disgruntled grits voting tory (they hate Rinaldi the hick) to offset the Red-Tories voting Liberal. Still a swing riding here.
	06/03/03	Andy Email: andyk8123@hotmail.com
Right now too those who think the Tories would keep this riding after the election are not with it. This riding will go to the Liberals plain and simple because this was one of the smallest maybe the smallest Tory victories in Ontario in 1999, I believe 903 votes and now with the Liberals crushing the Tories in the recent poll 53%-34% and the NDP at 11%. Northumberland would be one of the very first ridings in Ontario to switch hands and go in to the Grit column. As of right now I say Liberals by 2500 votes maybe more.
	17/03/03	THE GAMBLER Email:
The Gambler is putting his money on Dr. Doug Galt to win Northumberland. The LIB's mad a big mistake switching horses for this race and going with Rinaldi. Seems like the LIB team is still getting over this. Dr. Doug will lead this one from start to finish. Take this one to the bank.
	27/02/03	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Bush/Gore, Ontario style; Northumberland's a unique case of the Greens robbing the Grits of a hoped-for "sure thing" in 1999 (thanks to retired teacher/community activist Tom Lawson, who racked up massive swaths of votes in the Port Hope area). Otherwise, Northumberland's one of those classically long-bred Ontario Toryish areas where the current atmosphere is more "moderate" than "conservative"--hence more Liberal-conducive than it used to be. As many Grits would have bet on Northumberland before PE-H or H-F-L&A in '99, they wouldn't let this one slide now, either.
	21/02/03	El Predicto Email:
Many were suprised when Tory Doug Galt won this seat in 1999. The Tories were closing a hospital in the riding and the Liberals had a very popular candidate in Carolyn Campbell. This time Galt will have an earsier time. The hospital closing is ancient history. Campabell was defeated by Lou Rinaldi for the Liberal nomination. Lou's victory over Carolyn badly split the Liberals in Northumberland and he's not as strong a candidate as Carolyn was. This was a big mistake for the Liberals who should have gone with Carolyn for another shot at Galt. Here's another riding that the federal Liberal gun registry is a big issue. This will hurt Rinaldi as he campaigns in the rural parts of this riding. Put all this together and you can mark this one down for the Tories.
	05/12/02	SM Email:
Probably one out of at most five Liberal gains. The vote was close before, and it will take a fair bit of time for people to forgive the tories for the constant bungling of privatization.
	09/11/02	WD Email:
The Liberal nomination meeting had 1,189 voters for the five candidates, with a preferential ballot. By the fourth count the number voting was 1,042. Rinaldi got 612 on the final count, mostly from the east half of the riding. He is unknown in the west half. If local factors were the determinant, Galt would have the edge. In 1999 hundreds of Port Hope PCs voted Green as a protest vote, and hundreds more voted Liberal, protesting the closing of Port Hope hospital after Harris had promised no hospital closures in 1995. Some of these voters may return to the PC fold next time. However, the provincial trend is against the PCs, which should cancel out the point above. Result: too close to call.
	06/07/02	Andrew Cox Email:
Liberal win. Doug Galt squeaked in by 900 votes here in a viciously fought campaign. Since then, Galt was forced to resign as PA for naming young offenders in the house. His recent appointment as whip puts him in Toronto every day, instead of fighting for his seat. More importantly, the Liberals just nominated Lou Rinaldi, the popular mayor of Brighton. They had more than 2,000 members show up, according to the Toronto Star. A close seat, but clearly sliding towards the Liberal column.

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