Nickel Belt

Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Nickel Belt

Last Update:
2:00 PM 29/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
17 October 2002

Political Profile:

Candidates:
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Liberal Party:
Alex McCauley

Progressive Conservative:
David Kilgour

New Democratic Party:
Shelley Martel

Green Party:

Incumbent:

Shelley Martel

Federal MP:

Raymond Bonin

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 4474

*SHELLEY MARTEL

14833 41.95%

GERRY COURTEMANCHE

10359 29.3%

RON DUPUIS

10165 28.75%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 11 883

Raymond Bonin

19 187 55.6%

Sandy Bass

7 304 21.2%

Neil Martin

6 370 18.5%

Reg Couldridge

1 664 4.8%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 79661

1996 82576

1991 78439

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 24905

20-39 25435

40-59 22200

60+ 10020

Avg Household Income
$57504

Labour Participation 64.20%

Unemployment 11.60%

Canadian Citizen
99.39%

Canadian Born 95.86%

Ontario Born 85.99%

Immigrant 4.12%

Visible Minority 0.84%

Aboriginal 2.35%

First Language

English 49345

French 27750

Residence

House 85.03%

Apartment 12.63%

Owned 79.03%

Rented 20.97%

Avg Dwelling Value $121757

Education

University 8785

College/Trade School 20925

Secondary 27265

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	28/09/03	lrs Email:
I am assumign Tory vote will be alot lower this time-10-15% range- where will thjis vote go? prev submissions say Lib popular- bit I am going with "Martel "name- why vote her out for a Liberal- but only victory 5% or less
	12/07/03	Corey Dahl Email:
This riding will be interesting to watch. It is highly probable that Martel will come second to the Liberal. McCauley is well known in this area, and will be able to catch some support from those who had supported the Tories in 1999. However, it will be a close call. I still believe McCauley will overcome Martel. Prediction: 40% McCauley, 38% Martel, 20% Kilgour, 2% Green Party
	17/06/03	Craig Email:
Among the 8 NDP incumbents running again in 2003-04, Martel is probably the least secure. That being said, she'll pull it out, although it might be close. The right-wing vote split in 1999 should be gone as the Tories collapse, leaving a stronger Liberal group. However, Martel is the more well-known candidate and will make it through, along with the other 7 NDP incumbents. Predicted results: NDP 44%, LIB 38%, PC 13%, Green 4%.
	12/05/03	Grizz Email:
The NDP are very strong here and the incumbent is very popular. The Liberal candidate is also well known but the Grits definitly have an uphill battle.
	05/05/03	Scott "the truth" Email:
This one will be too close for comfort. The Big Red Machine candidate is a real threat to Martel in Nickel Belt. Being a former police chief gives him a pretty good profile. Martel has strong roots here and now has had good experience. Should be the closest of any Northern riding.
	01/04/03	CD Email:
McCauley is very popular in the area, the liberals will pull their weight in this one.
	28/02/03	Panther Email:
This riding is Martel's to lose. The Martel name has a lot of history in this riding. She's popular here, as is her father still. The NDP would have to be completely disimated for them to lose this riding.
	09/02/03	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
If there was any election Shelley Martel won by default, it was 1995's. She wasn't half bad in opposition, though--and it didn't hurt that she'd become the party's "first lady", of course. Furthermore, redistribution effectively meant that her turf was amalgamated with Floyd Laughren's old fiefdom in 1999, thus creating a formidable provincial NDP powerhouse. And not only does the fact of an NDP incumbent negate the need to vote Liberal to "stop the Tories", but the Reform-populist nature of Toryism this far north is such that erstwhile PC voters are almost as likely to default toward than against the NDP--thus muffling Grit hopes for a "united right". If Martel wins again, it'll be with a higher percentage, if not a higher margin, than 1999.
	30/01/03	JJ Email:
Martel won't have any touring responsibilties she doesn't take on herself. As for Alex M... Really, someone like the retired police chief of Sudbury may have more chips to cash in - noblesse oblige and all - than, ya know, actual personal popularity. Shelley's a big girl now, she's very well grown into her role, and the Nickel Belt knows. Unless the NDP gets sapped of energy they'll need for the genuine challenge on the hustings somehow - but how could they do worse than under that abominable central campaign in 99? - she should win it handily.
	20/01/03	Andrew Cox Email:
Too Close to Call. Reasons: 1) Good old boy Mike Harris is gone, leaving Bay Street Ernie Eves in charge. Despite some erstwhile "Northern" connection, Eves doesn't have the pull in rod and rifle country that Harris enjoyed. Watch for a significant PC decline. 2) Shelly Martel never really escaped the shadow of her father, Elie, who represented the area for ages. Her trials as an NDP Minister left a lingering impression that she's a good person, but doesn't really have what it takes. Frankly, I think she won the last election by default. 3) The Liberals nominated very well, selected Sudbury Police Chief Alex McCauley. Cops normally go PC, so it will be interesting to see the impact McCauley can have here. He has a high media profile and good fundraising connections. Will be a huge improvement over Gerry Coutremanche, who badly funmbled the 1997 by-election here. 4) Martel will have touring responsibilities during the election that will keep her out of the riding, especially around the debate. But unlike Howard Hampton, she won't make it up with saturation media coverage as a party leader. 5) Basically, this will be unpredictably until the last two weeks. Big movement is a possibility.
	02/12/02	Neil J. Email:
I may live in Timmins but it looks like this one may be close. Is the Liberal candidate the (or former) chief of police for Greater Sudbury?? The name is familiar...I must recognize it from MCTV news. If so I think this will be an interesting race will two well known candidates.
	16/10/02	Craig Email:
This riding could be one to watch. If Shelley Martel runs, she is very popular here and should win, but not by as much as in 1999. If she does not, this will be a real two-way race, knowing NDP support is down province-wide and they will not have a star candidate to work with. As for the Tories, they will probably come third, since they have been much-hated up here lately.

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