Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Niagara Falls

Last Update:
9:29 PM 30/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
2:10 PM 29/09/2003

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
Kim Craitor
Progressive Conservative:
Bart Maves
New Democratic Party:
Claude Sonier
Green Party:
Ryan McLaughlin

Bart Maves

Federal MP:
Gary Pillitteri

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

18497 45.7%

17080 42.2%

3985 9.85%

317 0.78%

300 0.74%

298 0.74%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality5 908
Gary Pillitteri
17 907 45.9%
Mel Grunstein
11 999 30.8%
Tony Baldinelli
6 077 15.6%
Ed Booker
2 356 6%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation62.00%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born84.13%
Ontario Born74.60%
Visible Minority3.07%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$135385

College/Trade School23930

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29/09/03 Giancarlo Cristiano
What Andrew Cox fails to point out about the poll that recently appeared in the Niagara Falls Review was 250 people were surveyed in the entire Niagara Region and the margin of error for the poll was 6.3% 19 times out of 20. Since the sample size for Niagara Falls would have been a lot smaller than 250, the margin of error for the riding of Niagara Falls would be much higher. This means that the difference between the Liberals and Tories in Niagara Falls is well within the margin of error. While the race will be a nail biter, Bart will win. Craitor was severely criticized for not showing up at the last all candidates debate that was broadcast on the local cable station. Bart also has done a lot for the riding. The PC government decided to allow two casinos in Niagara Falls and a lot of infrastructure improvements have been made to the riding. Bart is also running on a lot of local issues - he will set up a blue ribbon panel on bringing industry to Niagara - and has a lot of support that is not party affiliated - the so-called "Maves Tory". Lastly, Eves is visiting the riding on September 30th, a clear sign that the Liberals do not have a lock on this riding.
27/09/03 Marve
Email: marty_vw@yahoo.ca
I think Bart has run a much better campaign than in 99 - and will help him survive. The best thing for Bart is that Kim Craitor is the candidate and not Volpati - Craitor even called in sick to the televised debate IF Volpati had won the Liberal Nomination - The Libs would have won here - But thanks to Kimmy Craitor - Bart will hold - Even if his party goes down!!
24/09/03 Confused
I am a little confused and bewildered by some of the comments regarding Liberal candidate Kim Craitor and his abilites. Is it just me watching him struggle through the issues on city council every Monday night or is he just so quick and witty that it goes over my head? Has this man ever made a decision without having to refer it to staff or asking for clarification? Please someone explain to me how a man who cannot decide on municipal matters is asking us to elect him at a provincial level? My God, the Green Party is looking better and better!!! Boy did the Libs ever lose out when Volpatti lost the nomination.....she would have won the riding hands down and served us brilliantly!!!
24/09/03 Anthony
It still surprises me how ignorant many people are in Niagara. The Casino was brought to Niagara by the NDP's. The PC's only inpact on Casino Niagara was to delay its arrival... instead pushing for the Casino in Windsor to open. Please people don't wear your ignorance so boldly...its embarrassing for the rest of us in Niagara.
24/09/03 lrs
going against a MPP who won in 1995 but barely in 1999. Due to small plurality last time, and with the provincial polls and polls that give a breakdown in this area seem to be pointing to a Liberal sweep- should be a Liberal gain easily- but swing to Liberals will not be as much due to sitting PC MPP
Hey there Ryan boy..... don't wear you ignorance so boldly on your chest.... the Casino was brought to Niagara by the NDP's you moron! So I guess you will be remembering that on election day.
22/09/03 Andrew Cox
Email: andrewcox101@hotmail.com
Liberal Gain. Reason: The latest poll on the Niagara Region is pretty clear, Liberals are out in front. The headline in the Niagara Fall Review says it all "Political Shakeup in Niagara: Poll finds increase in Liberal support, Tory support drops." The results for Niagara are Liberal 45%, Conservative 40%, NDP 14%. Undecideds are quite low at just 13%. Barring a major disaster by the Liberals, this riding will switch hands.
14/09/03 Ryan
I also live in the Niagara Falls riding but I disagree with the last two postings. The current campaign is unfolding, and it seems to me that Maves is well ahead of Craitor. My wife works at the Niagara Falls Casino brought here by Maves, and we wont forget that on election day either.
13/09/03 Dave P.
I think Kim Craitor blew it with his Niagara Falls Review ad. I know alot of people were disappointed in his Niagara bashing. In particular to say that Niagara students aren't keeping up with the province was a slap in the face for teachers. Craitor is a good man, but he's getting lousy advice in running his campaign.
12/09/03 Kangaroo Court
Kim Craiter is too left wing for Niagara Falls. He's been the president of the labour council and the hotel and business owners in the Falls are always at war with the unions. There's one more reason Craiter can't win and his name is Wayne Thomson. Mayor Thomson and Craiter have been motal enemies on city council for years and Thomson is going to find ways to attack Craiter during the campaign. With Thomson in his corner, Bart Maves will have an easy time overcoming Craiter by 1500.
12/09/03 Nick
Email: spamgoeshere@cogeco.ca
Niagara Falls is going to be an interesting one to watch. While the other ridings in Niagara are pretty much in the bag (St. Catharines Liberal, Niagara Center NDP and Erie-Lincoln Tory) this one could swing Tory or Liberal. I personally believe Maves will pull ahead again thanks to support in Niagara-on-the-Lake and the new development in Niagara Falls which is more upper-class and typical Tory. I'm willing to bet that whoever wins this riding will be an indication of who forms government.
11/09/03 Ringleader Sally
Alright, let's talk about how Niagara Falls was dying in the mid 90's. There were broken down and empty motels, stores were closing and unemployment was higher than the provincial average. Then the Tories brought in first one casinon and now another. Niagara Falls is now a boomtown with a half dozen huge new hotels, new restaurants and shops. Bart Maves does get credit for turning Niagara Falls around and that's why he'll be re-elected. As far as Wayne Thomson being afraid to challenge Kim Craiter for the nomination, Thomson regularly sells over 1500 tickets to his fundraisers and would have blown Craiter away in a nomination. Thomson didn't run because he felt Maves was not beatable.
This will be a good riding to see if a good left leaning Liberal like Kim Craitor can get enough of the NDP vote to knock off the often overlooked (by Tory Premiers) Bart Maves. I personally think he can. As many know, this riding was very close last time and we can expect some of the same this time around. Niagara-on-the-Lake is a Tory haven and the old town will love the senior tax cut promise, as hollow as it may be. But I believe that Craitor will win Niagara Falls and that little part of Thorold and win by 500 thanks to a weak NDP candidate.
Okay, here's what's really going on from someone who actually lives in the riding. BTW, the Mayor's name is Wayne Thomson (not Thompson) and he is not very popular as of late. He didn't run for the nomination because he knows that his nemesis Craitor would have defeated him. Craitor is the best possible candidate for the Liberals because as a left liberal he appeals to both dippers and business people (the latter group will contribute to his camapign for fear that the Liberals form a majority government - a very real possibility). The NDP candidate is weak and was only nominated days before the election call. This opens a wide vacuum for Craitor, not to mention the hundreds of former Tories who think that Eves has let them down. Talk all you want about Bart's local "accomplishments" - they count for very little at the end of the day. In fact, his name recognition is quite low for a sitting MPP. Besides, a local MPP of any political stripe could have secured the same or even more for the city - not a single party would have realistically opposed a second casino or any of the fringe benefits that come with it.
22/07/03 Spindoctor Barbie
Email: barbie@mateltoys.com
Nobody knows Niagara Falls politics better than their long serving mayor, Wayne Thompson. Thompson was courted by Dalton McGuinty to run in Niagara Falls. Thompson turned McGuinty down because he knew that nobody could beat Bart Maves in this election. Sad sack Liberal candidate Kim Craiter will prove Thompson was right when he loses badly to Bart in September.
13/07/03 wynn
I'm with IanB on this one. The ridings have been changed, and Kormos is not an issue in Niagara Falls. The huge PC war chest will ensure them a win.
10/07/03 Mayor McCheese
The Liberals look right now like they are headed to a small majority government. This means a lot of Tory backbenchers are going to go down to defeat. I don't think Bart Maves will be part of that group because Niagara Falls has just done too well under the Tories. As a backbencher, Maves doesn't wear the down side of the last eight years like Tim Hudak next door will. Maves is seen as the guy who brought the casinos to Niagara Falls and now the city has life again. I think Maves will have a rough time but he'll manage to survive.
27/06/03 Ringleader Sally
The Liberals had a better candidate last time with Selena Volpatti. She couldn't beat Bart Maves in 1999. So I just don't see any way Kim Craiter beats Maves this time with all the money the Tories have spent in Niagara Falls in the last four years.
07/06/03 Grandpa
Bart Maves announced last week that the government will go ahead with adding a much needed third lane on the QEW between St.Catharines and Niagara Falls. I guess you just add that to the many projects Maves has brought to his riding. The Tories want to keep this seat and they are spending more than enough money to hold it. Maves will win his third election by the biggest margain ever.
04/06/03 IanB
Um... if people here didn't like what Peter Kormos has done for them it wouldn't really matter considering he's not their MPP.
03/06/03 Addie-Lefty
Ok if people here didn't like what Mr. Koromos has done for them, they have had their chances in the past to oust him!!!! if they didn't like what was done then he would have been goon in 95 along (unfortunatly) with many other amazing New Dems. But they have been voting him back in since god now how long ago!!!! i doub't that he will lose, especially with the NDP numbers around 15%is (anywhere from 12-19%). Peter is a committed, passionate and eloquant advocate for this area of niagara, they wont kick him out, he might be a leader in waiting don't forget!!!!!
31/05/03 Grape King
A left winger like Kim Craiter won't get any votes in Niagara-on-the-Lake, Virgil, Queenston and St.David's. Just one more reason why Bart Maves will be re-elected.
23/05/03 Kegmaster J
There was a story in the Niagara Falls Review last year that mayor Wayne Thomson was going to run for the Liberals. If Wayne had run he would have destroyed Bart Maves. Instead the Liberals have Kim Craiter. I'm not saying Kim is a bad guy. Most people like him. But he's not going to beat Bart Maves. Bart brought us the casinos and that's more than enough for him to
21/05/03 Hammer
When the new casino opens next year, 1 in 4 people in Niagara Falls will be working for the casino in some way. The Tories delivered in Niagara Falls and the people there won't forget that on election day. Kim Craiter never really had a chance in Niagara Falls. Bart Maves will win by at least 8,000 votes.
20/05/03 Shaker
Bart Maves claims he's brought over one billion dollars to Niagara Falls in the last eight years. I don't know if it's that much but Maves has brought a lot to his city. I can't see Craiter catching up to Maves. Here's what I think the final results will be. Maves 50%, Craiter 34%, NDP 10 %, Green Party 6%.
13/05/03 RFP
It is obvious that this is a riding up for grabs. A traditional liberal riding it has had some good times and bad times. Now it is riding a wave of optimism (read Casino and Tourism)into the future. You can expect economic issues (read tourism) to dominate the press headlines but expect the issues of Education, Health Care, Elderly Care, Hydro and provincial debt to provide an important sub text primarily for women voters. Another factor that should give the Tories cause for concern is the shifting micro demographics. By that I mean that the Accomodation and Tourist industry are creating a lot of jobs and this is an economic attractor. Unfortunately for Bart Maves these jobs tend to go to lower paid, younger and newer Canadians who are moving into the Falls to be closer to employment opportunities. This new influx typically support the mid left of the political spectrum. An area that the far right Maves fears to tread. Mr. Craitor as head of an employment help centre has both the skills and the empathy to an attractive spokesperson for this growing significant demographic. Maves may be toast but it will be close!
10/05/03 Daver
I've heard that if it gets into a later fall election situation is called Craitor will withdraw so he can keep his name on the city ballot (cut off in late October). I hear is riding association's polls haven't shown he brings much beyond the provincial banner and they'll consider possibly review Craitor's candidacy if there's no June or early September writ.
23/04/03 LS
Email: politicaldiscord@hotmail.com
Many people seem to think that local politics is going to play a big role in the outcome of this race. In that case, you should check out http://www.PoliticalDiscord.com to get the inside scoop on Niagara Falls City Hall. The casino, A-Team vs. B-Team, and all sorts of prickly political issues are discussed.
23/04/03 ME
Email: No
Hey Duke, is that the Niagara fundraiser that only sold 350 tickets with Ernie on the bill? Didn't you guys sold 600 tickets when Mike Harris was leader?
19/04/03 Duke
Email: No
This week Premier Eves and Bart Maves announced that the temporary casino is going to stay open. Niagara Falls is going to have two casinos. This means 4000 more high paying jobs for Niagara Falls thanks to the Conservatives. This will be more than enough for Bart to win in a landslide whenever the election is called.
11/04/03 V. Silvio
The Niagara Falls city council is nothing but a bunch of ego maniacs fighting with each other every Monday night. They don't care about the people of Niagara Falls. Kim Craiter is one of the worst members of the so called B Team that fights with Mayor Wayne Thomson. Bart Maves has brought a lot to Niagara Falls and works for the people. That's why I think he'll be re-elected.
11/04/03 Stanley
McGuinty thinks he can just waltz in and undo the region's smoking policy, get real, he is out of touch
06/03/03 Read On
Kim Craitor doesn't have the polish to beat Bart Maves. She, along with Wayne Thomson, Selina & Carolynn Ioanni are abusing council meeting coverage to give each other platitudes and grandstand and they're doing themselves a disservice - the only people watching council are pundits and political junkies and they're not fooled by these games, they are unimpressed. I think Ms. Craitor needs to distance herself from her NF council Libber cronies if she's going to stand a chance.Editor Note: Mr. Craitor is a male candidate. Perhaps some pundit did not watch council coverage as closely as we think.
01/04/03 Dar Robinson
i would hardly let a few giddy sailors speak for labour supporting Bart. However, I do agree that Craitor isn't the right man for the job and that Bart has done alot for Niagara Falls. But neigther have the support of the local NDP association.
31/03/03 RWhite
I saw Mr. Maves at the opening of the Welland Canal this morning in St.Catharines and I stood right behind a bunch big, scrappy-looking sailor/union folks. When Maves got up to deliver the keynote these guys ate Maves up, they couldn't get enough of him. At first I thought they were going to cause a stir, but it was legit - the love him. In their chatter back and forth, one fella mentioned that he liked Maves. I had these dudes pegged as real hardcore labour types, but they really took to him and I think Maves will see support across non-traditional groups. Maves is popular across party lines because he presents so well, he's laid back and unassuming (which gives him distance from his slick colleagues) and he can run on his record for Niagara Falls alone. Even people who don't like Eves would be hard pressed to argue that Maves hasn't brought his riding a tonne.
El Predicto obviously doesn't know much about Niagara Falls. He states that the NDP vote has "nowhere to go but up." El Pedicto is wrong. The NDP does not even have a candidate yet and everyone thought that Kim Craitor was a New Democrat before he expressed interest in running for the Libs... this means that the NDP vote could certainly drop a few more points. It may be true that Craitor will lose support from right-wing Liberals, but he will more than make up for it with all the disenchanted Tories out there. Hydro, education and healthcare will kill the Tories in Niagara Falls. I don't doubt that it will be close but I think the provincial numbers for the Tories will have to be 5 points ahead of the Liberals in order for Maves to hold on.
21/03/03 El Predicto
Sorry to give Big Nick the bad news but the NDP only got 9% of the vote in Niagara Falls last time. The NDP bottomed out in 1999 and have nowhere to go but up. That means there's nothing left for Liberal Kim Craiter to pull out of the left wing vote. On the other side of the political coin, Craiter will lose some of the ring wing vote the Liberals got in 1999. That's why I stand by my prediction that Bart Maves will keep this seat for the Tories. Sorry Big Nick.
15/03/03 Big Nick
Not only did Bart support Jim Flaherty for leader, thus making him useless (as usual) under Ernie Eves. Don't forget, Flaherty was the "throw the homeless in jail" candidate in the PC leadership race. Bart Maves barely hung on to this seat in 1999, and with Kim Craitor gaining support from the left, Mr. Maves will have a VERY tough time at re-election. This riding is going Liberal; end of story.
13/03/03 ME
Jeff is right, Niagara Falls voters know their meal ticket is a government member, and that is why this is still too close to call. This is a classic bellweather. Bart Maves was hardly a strong (or visible) government member, and is certainly good for nothing as opposition. This will go with provincial trend.
13/03/03 Jeff
Call it! Bart Maves has delivered 1.5 BILLION Dollars of non-essential funding to the Niagara Falls riding. This is in comparison to the PEANUTS that Kormos and Bradley have secured for Niagara Centre and St Catharines. Furthermore it looks like the Province is getting Niagara Falls a new MRI. The People of Niagara Falls are not stupid. They know who their meal ticket is!
13/03/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
Kim Craitor is the NDP candidate with the liberal nomination. I predict the NDP vote will choose wisely and go with Craitor taking the NDP vote to a brand new record low in NF and electing Kim as the new liberal MPP
05/03/03 El Predicto
The previous post shows just why Craiter can't win in Niagara Falls. The person says they're an NDP supporter but then goes on to defend Craiter and say how good he is. Kim Craiter does have a labour backgroud that will appeal to the minority left wing in Niagara Falls. Bart Maves will appeal to the people who've done very well as a result of the casino and like tax cuts. Then Maves has the Niagara-on-the-Lake and St.David's part of the riding where support for the Tories is as high as anywhere in the province. This is why I stand by my prediction that the Tories will win this riding.
Let me start off by saying that I vote NDP, so I won't be supporting Craitor or Maves... but some of you guys have to get real. Kim Craitor is confrontational? are you kidding? He's the most meek guy you'll ever meet. And Niagara Falls is hardly a small 'c' conservative town. NOTL will go Tory, but the city of Niagara Falls will go Liberal like it did in 1999 and because the former Mayor of Thorold is working for the Liberals, Craitor is likely to post far better numbers in that section of the riding than his party was able to do last time. Also, because Craitor is the former Labour Council President, he will take away even more traditional NDP votes in a game of strategic voting. Maves barely held on last time and even though his campaign has money coming out of its ears, the Tories won't be able to save this seat. The casino is a big issue municipally, but it wasn't really even on the radar screen provincially. (Harris was against it when Maves won in 1995 and the New Democrat incumbent who finished third was the biggest casino supporter running in the election).The election will be fought on education, health and hydro. If the provincial polling numbers stick, Craitor will win the riding with over 50% of the vote.
27/02/03 THE GAMBLER
The Gambler is putting his money on Bart Maves to win Niagara Falls. This is my kind of town, with lots of action. Thanks to Bart Maves Niagara Falls will soon have two casinos. Money flows like water and Maves will ride the wave to first prize.
26/02/03 El Predicto
Bart Maves was going to win Niagara Falls anyway, but the Liberals made it a lot easier by selecting Kim Craiter as their candidate. Craiter is the former president of the Niagara Falls Labour Council and is seen as way to left wing for a small c conservative town like Niagara Falls. Maves will win by a much larger margain this time. Time to move this one into the Tory fold.
24/02/03 Panther
Niagara Falls will once again send Bart Maves back to Queen's Park. Niagara Falls councillor Kim Craitor won the Liberal Nomination this past Saturday. Craitor is too controversial and confrontational for the residents of Niagara Falls (especially the Niagara-on-the-Lake portion of the riding.) During his last term in office, Maves has concentrated heavily on jobs, economy and securing the casino. The riding of Niagara Falls will reward him for this and re-elect him with an over whelming majority.
21/02/03 El Predicto
It doesn't matter who the Liberals run in Niagara Falls this time. Bart Maves has build on his support from 1999. In the last four years, the Tories have poured hundreds of millions of dollars into Niagara Falls and this will be enough to hold the seat. Maves has been front and centre at major government announcements for the new casino and the Beck hydro plant announcement. Maves also has the Niagara-on-the-Lake part of this riding which votes Tory in overwelming numbers. The business community in Niagara Falls like what Maves has done and will give him full support again this time. Put all this together and Maves hangs on to the riding. Mark this one down for the Tories.
23/01/03 Informer
Councillor Kim Craitor's slate was elected to run the Liberal riding association... that means Councillor Volpatti (who ran for the Libs in 99) is toast. With Craitor as the Liberal candidate, the Libs are likely to win this seat. If Selina Volpatti is able to bounce back and steal the nomination, she'd probably lose against Maves in the election because of the illegal gambling scandal she was involved with at a Liberal fundraiser a number of years ago.
08/11/02 Andrew Cox
Liberal win. Reasons. 1) The Liberals are literally pouring millions into this riding. The Review says they will build the Beck generating station in NF, a major $500 million hydroelectric project. The Tories don't look to be matching them yet. Tough to run against local jobs. 2) Maves has been looked over for cabinet year after year after year. Locals are starting to wonder why. 3) The Liberals are rumoured to be courting the popular Mayor, Wayne Thomson. He'd be a lock. 4) The Liberals completley fumbled the big local issue last time out: the casino. They appear to be getting their pro-casino bonafides out early this time. 5) The NDP could see a spurt of strength here, but strategic voting will likely minimize that effect.
20/10/02 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Of the two promising young Niagara Tories, Tim Hudak earned the cabinet posts and Bart Maves was left with the short straw--moreover, he won only marginally last time out, and blue-collar NF is more "Harris Tory" than natural Tory (and site of Stockwell Day's southward-flowing campaign gaffe to boot), so colour this endangered and a Tory must-save. What *could* save them is a vote split--there's the makings of NDP strength, though stillborn over the past few elections...

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