Niagara Centre

Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Niagara Centre

Last Update:
1:57 PM 29/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
25 October 2002

Political Profile:

Candidates:
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Liberal Party:
Henry D'Angela

Progressive Conservative:
Ann Gronski

New Democratic Party:
Peter Kormos

Green Party:

Incumbent:

Peter Kormos

Federal MP:

Tony Tirabassi

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 4639

*PETER KORMOS

21856 44.43%

*FRANK SHEEHAN

17217 35%

MAURICE CHARBONNEAU

9539 19.39%

MARGARET LARRASS

382 0.78%

LANK MAKULOLUWA

198 0.4%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 8 328

Tony Tirabassi

21 641 45.7%

Bernie Law

13 313 28.1%

Mike Grimaldi

7 029 14.9%

Joe Atkinson

4 893 10.3%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 104146

1996 102510

1991 99869

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 23560

20-39 26090

40-59 23470

60+ 19995

Avg Household Income
$52188

Labour Participation 62.40%

Unemployment 11.00%

Canadian Citizen
95.56%

Canadian Born 79.64%

Ontario Born 71.52%

Immigrant 19.74%

Visible Minority 3.60%

Aboriginal 0.74%

First Language

English 73690

French 2300

Italian 5435

German 2630

Residence

House 80.93%

Apartment 18.19%

Owned 72.40%

Rented 27.60%

Avg Dwelling Value $140517

Education

University 12735

College/Trade School 22265

Secondary 31140

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	28/09/03	Bank It! Email:
This one is a no-brainer! Peter Kormos could run against the Pope in Niagara centre and win. The tories are well aware of this and have strategically placed an incompetent like Gronski here. The Liberal candidate will have a strong showing in Thorold, but this popularity is simply not enough to stop Kormos. Say what you like about Peter, the people like him, and you'll see just how much they do on Thursday!
	24/09/03	Al Email:
Just watched the Cogeco debate. Kormos blew the others out of the water! Gronski - for an Education trustee was almost intelligible - must have been nerves - how would she do in parliamentary debates? D'Angelo made few mistakes, but Peter is still the MPP we want at Queen's Park. Prediction would be Kormos - landslide, D'Angeo 2nd and Gronski - not on the map. By the way - Gronski saying she gets along with teachers/ health care workers - come on Ann - really?? Thanks
	24/09/03	fizzle Email:
Should be an easy win for Kormos, but watch out for D'Angela. I've been seeing an awful lot of Liberal signs on front lawns throughout Welland and Fonthill. Poor Ann Gronski - no one seems to know who she is.
	08/09/03	Ping Pong Email:
As much as it pains me, this is a lock for Kormos but with a strong showing for the Tories due to South St. Catharines and Pelham. Kormos is a strong constituency guy and Welland seems to love him. He sticks to the NDP plan of "it doesn't matter what you say, just say it loud". The NDP platform is unrealistic but nobody in this riding will care because "Peter is doing something" at Queen's Park. Henry D'Angela should have a strong showing in Thorold but it will not be nearly enough.
	07/09/03	Tory in Dixie Email: ericbucholz@hotmail.com
I am going to say that I would not be surprised to learn that Kormos retains his seat yet again. True, the lack of support for the mid Penninsula highway could cost him votes, but I do not really foresee that the traditional voting trends will change. The anybody but Tory votes will realize that swinging behind the Liberal could risk a narrow Tory win.
	04/09/03	Nick Email: spamgoeshere@cogeco.ca
If there's only one single riding in the province that the NDP win, it'll be this one. Peter Kormos is a scrapper and a whiner and people in Niagara Centre love him for it. The only reason the Tories have any sort of showing in this riding is because of the upper-class Glenridge neighborhood in St. Catharines. Even then, Peter Kormos is a popular local politician. Look for an easy re-election with a huge margin over the other candidates.
	29/07/03	J.S Email: jarrow_crusade1936@hotmail.com
Kormos is not going to lose this one, despite what some wishfull shrills might think. In 1999 he got a 9% majority(technicaly marginal) over another Incumbent. Kormos has no incumbent to worry about, and a free-falling PC party is not going to put up a lot of resistance to Ontario's favourite lefty. The Liberals got 19% of the vote, and are not a serious challange to Kormos either. Kormos should get over 50% of the vote, and if he is really lucky, he might even top 60% Whatever way you spin these facts, the result is the same. The Geordie has spoken: Kormos goes back to Queens Park.
	04/07/03	Hotdog Email:
Peter Kormos is a legend who can't lose and the Liberals know it. Hank D'Angela is nothing more than a throw away candidate for a throw away riding. Kormos will win by at least 8000 votes.
	03/07/03	Nomad Email:
McGuinty and the Liberals could win 100 seats and Henry D'Angelo would still finish third in this riding. Nobody will ever beat Peter Kormos in Niagara Centre. He'd there as long as he wants it. If the Liberals believed they had any chance of beating Kormos they would have found a much better candidate than D'Angelo.
	01/07/03	wynn Email:
With people more galvanized by Niagara Falls City Politics, this should be an easy win for Maves. Lots of money in the riding association, and with campaign manager Dykstra, who worked in the premier's office and for the the one-time Minister of Community and Social Service John Baird, he's earned his chops. Dykstra is a high-profile campaigner.
	25/06/03	Glen Email:
Henry D'Angelo was out canvassing the other night. He knocked on my door and gave me a nice pamphlet of him and his family. He is a straight laced, clean cut individual with a nice approach. A polar opposite of Kormos. People are sick of Pete's act. As long as McGuinty keeps quiet and doesn't blow it, D'Angelo will upset.
	04/06/03	WD Email:
NDP hold. Kegmaster, the Greens are no threat to form the third party in this election. That's at least one election away, depending how they do in this one. Kormos, like most in the NDP, has a healthy hate on for the Greens. They're kinda scared of him, too, because they're not running anyone against him. The fear is he'll expose them for the disorganized, rag-tag group of eco-lefties and eco-righties that they are. The PCs could run Jehovah himself in this riding and not win it.
	23/05/03	Kegmaster J Email:
The NDP's days are numbered. By the next election, the Greens will be the third party in Ontario. People in Niagara Centre can read the writing on the wall and have been looking for an alternative to Kormos. That's why the Liberals and the Tories have a chance to win this time. Sadly for the Liberals, their candidate Hank D'Angela is an idiot. That leaves the door open for Anne Gronski to collect up all the votes of people who want a change and win Niagara Centre. Maybe Kormos will swith to the Green Part next time.
	20/05/03	Shaker Email:
First the first time in years we have a real race here. Gronski is making this a contest because as other have mentioned, she'd benefitting from a weak Liberal candidate. What could end up costing Kormos his riding is the growing number of New Democrats who are joining the Green Party. In a close race that could make the difference. Here's how I see the final results. Gronski 38%, Kormos 36%, D'Angelo 19%, Green Party 7%.
	17/05/03	Email:
To claim that the NDP is "over" is premature in the extreme. Latest polls put them up 4 points from 1999, and although their will be a Grit surge here(as everywhere else), the Grit vote is too low for them to win here. The Tories will probably finish third here, as their voters switch to the Grits. Kormos is safe as houses. O.K he only had a 9% lead over the Tory in 1999, but this time round he will have a lead of around 15% over the Grit.
	16/05/03	Craig Email:
Without strong Tory and Liberal candidates to counter Kormos, this will be a romp, in by far the largest NDP plurality in Ontario (and the largest since 1990). Since the issues here strongly lean left, and he is a strong socialist with very high popularity and strong labour support, the NDP will roll over the Big Red Machine and the shrinking Big Blue Machine. Predicted results: NDP 61%, LIB 21%, PC 15%, Green 3%.
	10/05/03	corrector Email:
Commuter is wrong to say that Kormos does not support the mid-peninsula corridor. In fact, Kormos is on record as supporting the highway. The Liberals and Tories don't have a hope in hell. This seat belongs to Kormos until he decides to retire.
	02/05/03	The Canal Kid Email:kidcanal@yahoo.com
The Canal Kid says Peter Kormos makes it through the locks first. The Kormos reputation in Welland and Thorold is legendary and will beat out any Tory support from Fonthill. The Liberals are a non-entity in this riding - it will be an orange and blue affair only. Listen, if Kormos could survive the blue sweeps in 95 and 99, he won't have any trouble with a potential minority government this time around. Like Mel and Ellis before him, Kormos has the cult of personality that gives him the seat until retirement.
	02/05/03	Joe Commuter Email:
Peter Kormos and his party are against the mid peninsula highway. This is going to cost Kormos a lot of votes in Welland where they are counting on the mid peninisula highway project to help get the local economy going again. As usual, nobody knows where the Liberals or their candidate, Henry D'Angela stand on the mid peninsula highway. Anne Gronski and the Conservatives support building the highway and that will get her a lot of new votes in Welland.
	19/04/03	Fonthill Voter Email:
This is the election where Peter Kormos finally loses. Here's how I think it's going to happen. Every Liberal I talk to tells me that they just can't bring themselves to vote for their lame candidate Henry D'Angeli. So Liberals are looking for someone else to vote for because they'll never vote for Kormos. Ann Gronski is the perfect candidate to pick up this unhappy Liberal support. Ann is a red Tory who has real concerns about healthcare and education. She is already getting Liberals joining the Gronski campaign. With the support of the Liberal vote, Ann will have enough to finally beat Kormos at the ballot box.
	17/04/03	Reality Check Email:
Scotty is wrong. Gilles Bisson will join Peter Kormos as the only two members of the NDP caucus left after the next election. Kormos will win this riding even thogh is party is on it's last legs. Time for Howie Hampton to turn out the lights. The New Democratic party is over.
	16/04/03	Casey Email:
The EKOS poll only included party names and didn't include the name Dalton McGuinty. Once you throw that name into the mix, the numbers change. More importantly, once people realize that McGuinty has promised to raise Taxes, Gronksi will win over soft Liberal Votes. She will clean up in traditional PC south St Catharines and do well in her home town of Thorold. Kormos will lose Liberal votes this time around as "Strategic Voting" won't be Provincially endorsed. If Gronski can capture the female vote in Welland, this will be the big upset of the Election.
	15/04/03	Dudeski Email:
I honestly think people are getting tired of the Kormos/Hampton dog and pony show. Their resistance to the Mid-Peninsula Corridor is going to be tough card in the riding, when everyone else is trying to figure how close to Welland to bring it. Kormos will have a tough time not looking like a jerk if he tries to be too aggressive with Gronski. The Kormos dog can no longer hunt, and even with a strong labour base, times are tough and jobs are being lost to other parts of the region - my prediction, Tory upset.
	09/04/03	Scotty Email:
April 5 EKOS poll results. Liberals 53% Tories 34% NDP 11%. Looking at this poll, Peter Kormos could be the only New Democrat returning to Queen's Park after the election. The Liberals are kicking themselves they didn't come up with a better candidate than dullard D'Angela.
	21/03/03	Craig Email:
Easy NDP hold. They should easily increase their plurality since their popularity has increased, and he won't have a strong Tory to fight this time. The NDP will probably keep all their seats, but this one will be a convincing win (around 60%).
	16/03/03	Email:
Why do people insist that Kormos is "more of an independent than a New Democrat"? He strictly adheres to party policy - his strength is that he communicates the NDP message in a very effective way. Most of this riding has been NDP since 1975 and the weakness of the Liberal and Tory candidates will ensure that it remains NDP this time around.
	05/03/03	Morris Email:
Kormos is a lock. He really is more an Independent than NDP'er. IS that why Mark Brickell, who lives in Niagara Centre, is not taking NC on, and parachuting into Jim Bradley's northern St. Catharines riding?
	31/12/02	IanB Email:
Peter Kormos will hold this seat. His victories in the riding are not based on strong NDP support but strong Kormos support. Sure, he's nuts, but he gets the job done at Queen's Park. I'd wager that Kormos will have one of the highest percentages of the votes for any Dipper in the province, even more than leader Hampton IMHO.
	22/12/02	G.S. Email:
The Liberal candidate is an unknown Thorold councillor and the Tories aren't likely to put up anybody as credible as Sheehan was in 1999. What does all this mean...? The NDP (or more specifically, Kormos) is likely to take over 50% of the vote for the first time since 1990. Also consider that this was the only riding in Ontario where the Liberal Party won less than 20% of the vote in 1999.
	07/12/02	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
He's got neither 1995's Rae backlash nor 1999's Niagara Centre battle-of-incumbents situation nipping on his shoulders now, so love him or hate him, Kormos is sitting prettier than Sarah Polley. And while he didn't run for the seat federally as some had predicted in 2000, Kormos' koattails were such that the NDPer who did run for Gibby Parent's former seat increased his % from 1997 and nearly earned back his deposit. Solidarity forever...
	25/10/02	Michael Ensley Email: mensley@yahoo.com
Peter Kormos just had a very successful fundraising event on Oct 19th. He is perceived as such an independent he can hold this seat for the NDP.

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