Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003


Last Update:
4:46 PM 07/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
9:49 PM 30/09/2003

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
Tony Wong
Progressive Conservative:
David Tsubouchi
New Democratic Party:
Janice Hagan
Green Party:
Ian Jackson

David Tsubouchi

Federal MP:
Hon. John McCallum

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

26083 62.08%

12859 30.61%

1594 3.79%

640 1.52%

437 1.04%

399 0.95%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality23 089
John McCallum
32 104 66.6%
Jim Jones
9 015 18.7%
David Scrymgeour
5 085 10.6%
Janice Hagan
1 129 2.3%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation67.70%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born48.52%
Ontario Born43.33%
Visible Minority53.68%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$281951

College/Trade School23275

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01/10/03 James
Why does everyone think that Asian voters are a Liberal monolith? That is not the case, especially in professional middle class areas like Markham. They may see an intolerant agenda with conservative parties at the FEDERAL level, but there is no "fear" of the Harris/Eves Tories among Ontario Asian voters in terms of their "intolerance". Of course communities differ, with South Asians and Filipinos being more liberal than Chinese and Koreans. The latter tend to be quite conservative. A survey of Korean-Canadian voters a few years ago, for example, showed a majority backed Harris (the most Korean riding is Willowdale, and they were a significant force in terms of David Young's election). Chinese are more spread out and diverse, but in general working-class Chinese are Liberal voters and middle-class Chinese voters are more conservative. Markham is filled with Chinese engineers, doctors and so on. So they vote just like the generally affluent whites up here. So I'm predicting a narrow Conservative victory in Markham.
01/10/03 lrs
with lead last time- Tory should be able to hold seat-if he loses tomorrow- he should run federally-I would say Tory would win by 2-5%-if lose here- then pcs will win less than 20 seats?
01/10/03 observer
Email: no
I can not understand how even you come to close predicting this as liberal. Tsubouchi's loos in this riding means tories less than 10 ridings. Which is not going to happen. For sure Dave will prevail.
30/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
Like Oakville, you need to take down the tossup sign and put this in the Tory column. The Liberals have peaked, the NDP are on the rise, and this riding has remained Tory blue for a long, long time, without interruption, under Don Cousens and the current MPP. To say that the polls as they stand now would wipe the Tories out in the 905 belt is very fanciful.
30/09/03 Big tuna
The PC's are strong here, driving through the neighbourhoods I see Chinese families with PC sign's. Wong will lose if his partisans don't support him. I would like to see a Liberal majority just so that they won't be able to blame anyone if they screw up. Then it would be true that people elect the ones that make the most promises.
23/09/03 Schoene
David Tsubouchi has got this one solid. Chair of Management Board may not be a glamorous cabinet post, but he's got a solid reputation. And the word on the street is that they are far better organized than the Liberals. A good team and a strong candidate - this riding will go Tory this time, just like in 1999.
23/09/03 Scoop Jackson
I've been talking to my Liberal contacts and they don't see any chance Tony Wong can win Markham. You have to remember that there are a lot of hard feeling between the Liberals and Wong after his remarks earlier this spring. Tony Wong was appointed by Dalton McGuinty in Markham and less than a week after his appointment, Wong was quoted in local papers and in Frank magazine saying that the Ontario Liberal Party was "racist". Since that time the Liberals have done nothing to help Wong and won't be doing anything in the last days of the campaign. If the Liberals don't think they can beat Tsubouchi then it won't happen.
23/09/03 SURESH
Markham is no longer a Tory stronghold. Lot of new residents moved here in the past copule years, most of them will vote for Liberals. Also, a quick count of number of signs gives Tony Wong a 2 to 1 edge over David Tsubouchi. With Liberals leading by almost 15 % in polls (even in 905 belt) and province wide mood for changeensures that Markham will be a Liberal pick up.
20/09/03 Craig
This riding is slowly 'urbanizing' and there is a high ethnic, mostly Asian, population here. Since the Liberals seem to own the Asian population and they have a 10-15 point lead in the 905 area, I see them taking this riding away from the Tories on the way to a majority government. Although the Tories got more than double what the Liberals had in 1999, this riding is growing rapidly, momentum is with the Liberals and they have a better candidate this time. Current prediction: Wong 51%, Tsubouchi 41%, Jackson 4%, Hagan 3%, others 1%.
19/09/03 DL
Unfortunately, David Tsubouchi will win this riding. Its a shame that such a good candidate like Tony Wong will come up short. For Wong to win, the tory collapse has to be so strong, that even wealthy Markham voters would sway. Tsubouchi won with 62 percent of the vote last time! A liberal win just seems too unlikely. Wong will make it much closer than last time, but he will have trouble winning. If Tsubouchi was running in Toronto, he would be absolutely decimated, but this is the 905, where greed weighs more than compassion.
07/09/03 Initials
Email: different@earthling.net
Dave's days are numbered. Markham has become more and more of an immigrant community and these are the kinds of immigrants that now care - and therefore - vote. This, along with Tony's public service record and the growing numbers of the disillusioned Tory voter will make this riding Red this time. Dave has not distinguished himself in the legislature, nor has the recent Ernie Eves government. So I think this bellweather riding will show that the tide has changed for the province and that the people of Ontario are willing and able to effect change.
06/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: ericbucholz@hotmail.com
Don Counsens kept the riding Tory blue during the 1987 and 1990 elections, and Tsichouchi (can never spell that name) should keep this the same way now in his third try. Very bedrock.
01/09/03 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Interestingly enough, Markham WAS a bellwether riding through-out the Robarts and most of the Davis years...much of 905 was similar...as a region it lacked political cohesion In 1995, Harris created the phenomenon of 905 and repeated it in 1999. That was when Markham took off from an off and on PC riding to one that was rigidly so. Now prosperous immigration has changed the character of the riding, or added an unpredictable element but the Waspish neighbourhoods of Markham should remain fiercesomely PC and if the PCs lost this, they would be down to 20-25 seats in Liberal landslide. The election remains to be called, the campaign remains to be fought, but I would give the riding to the PCs, probably with a margin in the range of 5,000-6,500 votes.
25/08/03 Chris E
Yes Markham is currently conservative, and yes it went conservative federally in 97, but frankly who was gonna vote liberal after the jag bahdouria mess? lets use some common sense here. this is a bell weather riding and will go liberal if the province goes liberal. tony wong is very well respected.
20/05/03 Grizz
Craig, Craig, Craig...I thought so highly of you till I saw your posting for Markham. This is one of THE most conservative riding in Ontario. The only riding to vote in a PC in all of Ontario in the 97 federal election, they're going to keep the PC incumbant. I'll chalk up your call on this one as a momentary lapse in normally good judgement.
07/05/03 Craig
Believe it or not, I think this will be another of the many Liberal pickups. More than 53% of the population here is of visible minorities, so it is a very diverse riding more like those in the city of Toronto, even if 905 is the area code. An Asian candidate for the Liberals, combined with fast-declining Tory fortunes (they are 15 points behind the Liberals in the 905 area) and the lack of NDP support here will mean the Big Blue Machine will be no more here. Predicted results: LIB 50%, PC 39%, NDP 5%, Green 3%.
03/03/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
That Tsubouchi's on the path to reelection is without dispute--Markham's "like that". (Disregarding the astonishing 2/3 federal mandate of John McCallum, of course.) What's more noteworthy, in comparing 1999 to elections before it, is the "levelling of the curve". The usually heavily Liberal Milliken Mills polls saw a conspicuous Tory upswing (due no doubt to a non-Asian nonentity as the Liberal candidate, but also to more typical Tory issues such as personal prosperity, law & order, etc), while there was an unprecedented smidgen of Harris-skeptical slackening within the old cores of Markham and Unionville. None of this, of course, constitutes real threat. And Tsubouchi's turned out to be a likeable moderate who'd probably make a good opposition critic should the Tories, for any reason, lose power...
26/10/02 AL
The Tories have an amazing Youth and volunteer branch here....If they lose here I see the whole Party crashing and polls suggest that that won't happen for a while! There is no Canadian Annoyance to split votes with here!

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