Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003


Last Update:
3:23 PM 01/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
3:02 PM 28/09/2003

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
Khalil Ramal
Progressive Conservative:
Frank Mazzilli
New Democratic Party:
Irene Mathyssen
Green Party:

Frank Mazzilli

Federal MP:
Pat O'Brien

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

15295 38.53%

13912 35.04%

9788 24.65%

293 0.74%

241 0.61%

172 0.43%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality11 679
Pat O'Brien
19 677 54.8%
Robert Vaughan
7 998 22.3%
Derrall Bellaire
4 119 11.5%
Andrew Sadler
4 107 11.4%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation68.50%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born76.69%
Ontario Born68.92%
Visible Minority10.35%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$131892

College/Trade School24985

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30/09/03 Craig
This is the one riding I want to call but I really can't, I don't think the Liberals (or anyone) have it in the bag, I'd call this one a three-way race. Any one of them can win this, I have decided this will be the best race in all of Ontario on Thursday night. It could be either an experienced addition to the NDP caucus, an extra backbencher for the Liberals or a sole survivor in London for the Tories. I think there will be less than a 4% spread between the three of them. Current prediction: Ramal 34%, Mathyssen 32%, Mazzilli 31%, others 3% (all 3 are within any margin of error, so it is a three-way race)
28/09/03 AlanSmithee
I don't think you can call this one in favour of the Liberals just yet. I think they'll win easily in Elgin-Middlesex-London and in London West, but here? The Free Press poll was taken from less than 100 respondents - less than one per polling area and less than 0.1% of the riding. I could create a poll showing Khalil Ramal in the lead by asking 100 people in the heavily Muslim White Oaks area only. I could just as easily create a poll showing Frank Mazzilli heavily in the lead by asking 100 people in the largely Italian Clarke Road area only. Mazzilli has been an excellent MPP. I think this race will be extremely close but it's too early to write him off.
28/09/03 Andrew Cox
Liberal gain. The London Free Press survey published Saturday of the four London seats says Liberal 54%, PC 29%, NDP 17%. That spells a four seat sweep for the Grits. London Fanshawe had the widest Liberal lead of the four. This supports regional data found in the latest Ipsos-Reid survey (Lib 49%, PC 33%, NDP 13%.) Clearly, Khalil Ramal is about to beat our friendly neighbourhood police officer Frank like a drum.
27/09/03 TM
This is an NDP Win. Irene Mathyssen signs are everywhere and the Liberals have given up in London Fanshawe.
27/09/03 JW Bennett
Email: jbennett@execulink.com
New Poll in the London Free Press today that Mazzilli has less than half of Khalil Ramal's level of support and is struggling to keep second from Irene Matthyssen of the NDP. Tories appear to be headed for a Province-wide meltdown. Liberal Gain.
26/09/03 Darcy
Email: darcyhiggins@canada.com
This is definitely very close! I know Irene. Strategiv voting will likely be minimal now and Hampton seems to be pushing that message. It all depends on the next polling numbers - how high is the NDP on Ontario and in the Southwest - are they up a few points? It could really go any way, so give the best guess and call it after the next poll.
26/09/03 Jimmy B.
I think this race is far from over. But I think that to dismiss Khalil Ramal is naive. First, the opinion polls are favourable to the LIberals. Second, he has a presence on the ground, he was at my door two weeks ago, and there are signs on lawns everywhere. And please, his mother tounge is Arabic, and maybe he doesn't have 100% command of our sloppy English but you know what he means when he speaks. Mazzilli has not been a great advocate for this area, and I haven't seen him out knocking on doors. Mazzilli comes to a community debate once in 4 years, and now he's 'strong'??
25/09/03 JJ
After watching the Rogers Debate for the riding of London-Fanshawe, I think this riding should be switched to too close for the NDP and the PC. Kalil is likely the weakest candidate; perhaps weaker than the freedom party candidate (Mike Davidson). His public speaking was dismal, not only for his uncomfortable performance on stage but also his gramatical errors and stumbling for words. Frank Mazilli is a strong candidate who works hard for his constituency. Irene has always been a strong London area candidate. Prediction: Mazilli-38%,Irene-38%,Kalil-20%. Vote split could definately give Frank the riding.
25/09/03 Craig
I am withdrawing my Tory prediction with the latest poll numbers, and it is a three-way race once again (this riding is one of the closest in Ontario) due to the sudden drop of the Tories. I am 'leaning' towards Irene Mathyssen returning after a long absence, but I am not confident enough to predict an NDP victory (they need to go up to at least 18-20% in the polls to clinch it). The Liberals have a very weak candidate but momentum on their side and the Tories need to move back up to get back in the driver's side. This race will be decided in the final week, if not on election night. One of the ridings to watch, currently the most even three-way race in Ontario! Current prediction: Mathyssen 35%, Mazzilli 33%, Ramal 30%, others 2%.
25/09/03 SJM
Expect Mazzili to hold his seat here. The NDP have a strong base in London Fanshawe and should garner at least as many votes as 1999. That coupled with a no name Liberal, should allow the Tory incumbant to withstand a Liberal sweep of the province.
24/09/03 Cosmonaut
Where is Hot Shot getting this information about the Sept 22/03 Ipsos-Reid poll being a 5% difference between the Libs and Tories. The three polls issued before the date were Compas Sept 20th 50/33/14 ,Ipsos-Reid Sept 22 50-33-12, and Environics Sept 23 49-31-16. If we were to average the three out the Libs would be at 50, the Tories at 33, and the NDP at 14. Now I don't know where Hot Shot learned arthimatic but where I'm from 50-33 =17. The Liberal support will probably trend downward somewhat as the election date approaches (probably to 45) with the NDP and Tories trending up a couple of points to 35 and 16 respectively. The Tory support on the Environics poll maybe a little low as some respondents voluntarily declared Canadian Alliance who I suspect will end up voting Tory when they get to the ballot box and find no CA candidate (assuming these people can even find the polling station) If the Liberal support were to remain in the high 40's I can't seem the Tories keeping this riding. If it were to go down to the mid 40's with the Tories in the mid thirties and the NDP in the mid teens then the Tories might have a shot due to Irene M.'s name recognition
24/09/03 Mike in Etobicoke Centre
Email: snowstormcanuck@yahoo.com
I don't know much about the local issues in this riding so no prediction on that part. However, I feel I must correct "Hot Shot" on his claim that the latest Ipsos-reid poll has the Liberal lead down to 5 points. That is a complete lie, obviously. The polls released by environics, ipsos-reid and compas on debate day all had the Liberals with a 15-20 point lead. So if some pathetically desperate local Tory has to outright lie to get his point out, it's only too telling how this riding is going.
23/09/03 Observer
Too tough to call. Liberal candidate is weak, Mazilli is not much to write home about, Irene has name recognition, but will she get the anti-Tory vote? Wish people would stop praising Spud Spohill. His rep is built on leaking city council info to Chip Martin
22/09/03 Hot Shot
It's a whole new campaign according to Ipsos-Reid today with the Liberal lead now down to only 5 points. So saying Ramal will win because of the provincial polls is now out of date. This is going to be a very close campaign where local candidates matter. That gives the Tories a huge advantage in this riding because Mazzilli is the incumbent and is much better at communicating his message than Ramal is. Ramal also has to deal with his vote being split off by Irene Mathyssen who is without a doubt one of the best NDP candidates in Ontario. Mazzilli will get the Tory vote and Ramal and Mathyssen will split the rest and give Frank the win.
22/09/03 Old Ben
Email: shawnscanada@sympatico.ca
This riding is a winner for the NDP. The one-two punch of the federal NDP big guns in Jack Layton last week and Alexa McDonough this week will help boost Irene Mathyssen into the lead. Khalil Rhamal has been less then impressive in his public appearances. Mathyssen will pick up votes from traditional Liberals. Frank Mazzilli has lost support in this riding by not doing his constituentcy work and will come in behind his party's average polling. He has also being less then impressive at all-candidates meetings, leaving one early to attend a football game. Mathyssen is one of the strongest NDP candidates in southwestern Ontario with experience and a platform that resonates strongly with people in this riding. One need look no further then the number of Mathyssen signs on private property to see the level of support.
20/09/03 lrs
saying liberal only due to provincial polls- otherwise I would agree with others that a Tory hold would be a good guess- issue will be can the NDP campaign provincially catch fire and allow this Tory to squeeze in? I just think people in riding will ride the provincial wave to a Lib gain- if not -a Tory hold may mean that the Tories can hold 35-40 seats across the province
20/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
Frank Mazilli is a decent man and satisfactory MPP but this riding is going Liberal for sure: A) Mathyssen won't do better than last time. A loss of 1,000 votes should result in a Liberal victory. B) Mazilli's track record is nothing like Cunningham's. It's not Bob Wood-awful but it still won't be enough to survive the Liberal tide in London. C) The central Tory campaign is in free-fall. Unless Eves drastically turns things around in the debate, almost all of the close ridings are turning Red. Conlusion: Liberal= 45%/Conservative=31%/NDP=23%/Others=2%
18/09/03 AlanSmithee
Frank Mazzilli will win London-Fanshawe. Irene Mathyssen has her traditional support behind her but with the NDP running at 12% in the polls I don't see them breaking out beyond their traditional strongholds - and London ain't one of them. Meanwhile, Khalil Ramal has to be one of the weakest candidates in the Liberal stable. Very few, if any, people in London had heard of him before he won the nomination, and both times I've seen him speak I have been less than impressed. He seems to have good ideas but his command of English is limited and he seemed to be struggling for words while onstage at the recent all-candidates meeting. A strong Liberal Party/weak local candidate combines with a weak NDP/strong local candidate to split the left wing/protest vote down the middle. I predict a healthy win for Frank Mazzilli with Irene Mathyssen a not-too-distant second.
17/09/03 Craig
Actually, we didn't quite agree on this one then - but I have decided to call this one PC, simply because the Liberals are fading and the NDP have lost a potential centre-right vote split, the Liberals are focusing on London West (which they have in the bag now) and the NDP base is not strong enough to win it outright unless they gain in the polls. I feel that London's three urban ridings will be all painted in different colours on October 2nd now, since Mazzilli appears to be on his way to re-election. Things can always change, but I am confident enough to call this one Tory. Current prediction: Mazzilli 39%, Mathyssen 32%, Ramal 25%, others 4%. (Note I do not call races unless the lead is at least 5 points, to allow for a margin of error)
15/09/03 ATGS
I drove throughout the riding over the weekend, and must say that the sign campaign is in full swing -- lots of orange, blue and purple signs up. But it is clearly noticeable that almost all of Ramal's signs are on public property, not people's lawns. Mazilli has some one lawns, but Mathyssen seems to have more signs on people's lawns that the other two candidates combined. Winning the sign war doesn't guarantee victory, but it does show that the NDP is running a strong campaign, and has a solid base of support in the riding. I'm going to call this one for Irene Mathyssen and the NDP on October 2nd.
10/09/03 Reality Check
I can't believe it. Craig and I actually agree on the outcome of London Fanshawe. We both say Mazzilli will win it. The Liberals could finish third in this riding with Ramal as there candidate while Mathyssen will do well for the NDP but not nearly enough to really challenge Mazzilli. London Fanshawe is the most right wing of the London ridings and the Liberals could only have been in this race if they had a good candidate. They don't and Mazzilli is a winner.
29/08/03 Craig
This is still very much a three-way race, but some scenarios have developed and that could sway the outcome. The Liberals have the weakest candidate, so they will have to win it with the big picture (if the Tories fall more or at least stay stationary to nullify a potential vote split). The NDP and Tories have more experienced candidates, and their success depends on how they do in the polls and what happens with the Liberals. The one thing that might allow Mazzilli to hold on is the vote split if he gains at Liberal and NDP expense, however Mathyssen could win it if she the Tories and Liberals start splitting votes while maintaining a base of at least 35-37%. If none of those happen, it will be one classic race, which local issues will decide. This ain't even close to over, all three parties need to really work hard here! Current prediction: Mazzilli 34%, Mathyssen 32%, Ramal 30%, others 4%.
06/08/03 GK
Irene is running again!!!???? You know what this mean? Vote split! The Liberals could easily have won this riding but a strong NDP candidate will allow the Tories to win. Same applies for London North Centre but Wood will go down, probably in a slaughter.
18/07/03 Kippers For Breakfast
I think Frank Mazzilli has gotten a raw deal on this website. People in London knew Frank as a dedicated police officer who had served his community with distiction. That's one of the reasons why he got elected in the first place. Since coming to office, Mazzilli has done nothing to damage his good reputation and has worked hard to represent his riding. I think if the Liberals and the NDP really believed that Frank was in a position to be defeated, they would have uncovered some star candidates to try to take him on. Ramal and Mathyssen are not the kind of candidates to knock off someone like Mazzilli.
15/07/03 Scooby Doo
The winds of change are in the air, but they're not blowing in London Fanshawe. This is the only riding left in London with a real NDP base in it. Irene Mathyssen is going to get somewhere around 30 per cent of the vote. This leaves Frank Mazzilli the winner because the Conservative base in this riding should give him at least 36 per cent of the vote. Throw in the Green Party at say 3 per cent and there's not enough left for Ramal to win it. Mazzilli will have one of the lowest vote totals of any winner this fall but he'll still take it.
12/07/03 initial
Email: jarrow_crusade1936@hotmail.com
I stand by my statement that the NDP might win here. (The word is *might* not *will*. Its still very much a three way race here). Nomad's statement that the NDP will finish behind the Greens here is absurd. In 1999(a bad year for the NDP), the NDP polled about 25% here. The Green got 0.6%. Be serious please...
03/07/03 Nomad
Bud Polhill is overated as a politician. If he was as good as the Liberals say he is, Bud would have won the nomination. He didn't. I think Frank Mazzilli would have beaten Polhill just like he's going to beat Ramal. As far as Irene Mathyssen goes, she'll be fighting it out with the Greens to see who'll finish third.
24/06/03 Political Hack
The Liberals had the right candidate to win London-Fanshawe. His name was Bud Polhill and for some reason, party organizers for the Liberals let this one get away and were out worked by Ramal's people. I honestly wonder if clever Tories signed up for the Liberals so they could vote for Ramal at the nomination. With Ramal in place, Mazzilli and his supporters go just what they needed to win no matter what happens in the rest of the province.
06/06/03 Reepo Man
This looks like another very close race. The only thing I can say for sure is that Irene Mathyssen will finish third for sure. That leaves Mazzilli and Ramal. I have to go with Mazzilli because Ramal just isn't known enough to win London-Fanshawe even if he does have the summer to knock on doors.
06/06/03 JS
Email: unclejoesayshello@yahoo.co.uk
Too close. The NDP are "starting" to move(for the first time in 10 years), and have a good platform. All that could stop the Grits winning here, the Tories will continue to fall no-matter when the election is held, but a late election could help the NDP who will then have time to get their message across.
04/06/03 Observer
This riding can go any three ways, it all depends on the organization on the ground. Are any communities backing a candidate? From what I understand, the Catholic community has supported Pat O'Brian federally thus leading to his landslide victories. How does this grassroots support breakdown provincially? Look at that, and you will find the winner of this riding. This will be about, who is going to pull the vote.
31/05/03 Beanie Baby
Mazilli will prevail, albeit by a small margin. He is a sal of the earth kind of guy, someone who when he tells you something, you believe him. This seat will only go to the Liberals if there is a red wave across the Province. As we know the Dalton cannot sustain his lead for the next few months, do not count on that happening. Mazilli is coming back.
28/05/03 Jay Bird
Matthyssen is a strong experienced candidate. Mazilli is experienced but not exactly a shining star in the Tory caucus. If the NDP get a bump from the inevitable McGuinty gaffes it could put Matthyssen over the top.
24/05/03 El Predicto
How can anyone think this is a three way race when the NDP are hitting historic lows in the polls? I stand by my ealier prediction that Mathyssen will finish third but will get enough votes to stop the Liberals from winning. Frank Mazzilli's victory will be made easier by the Tories going up in the polls.
20/05/03 Grizz
I have to agree with Craig that this is going to be an interesting 3 way race (though I disagree on several of his other 3 way race predictions...like in Essex...). My feeling is this could go Liberal but I'm not ready to call it. To all the NDP brothers, sisters, cousins and what not, Uncle Grizz is telling you to be optimistic about THIS riding. Stop pipe-dreaming about scoring big in Central Toronto.
20/05/03 Scoop Jackson
My contacts with the Liberals tell me that Bud Polhill was there only chance of winning this riding. With Ramal as the Liberal candidate, local Liberals and the central party have given up on this riding. Liberal workers in London are now moving to help Deb Mathews next door. Irene will make it interesting but the only party that could have beaten Mazzilli was the Liberals and they can't do it with Ramal.
07/05/03 Craig
A three-way race at this moment. This might come down to a tight recount as the closest race in Ontario even! No one can really be called here, all three parties will have to work hard here and whoever does the most here wins - as one of only a handful three-way races in the province (the others should be Oshawa, Essex, Haliburton-Victoria-Brock and Etobicoke North). Predicted results: LIB 33%, NDP 32%, PC 30%, Green 4% - but those are all within the margin of error, so it can go any way.
28/04/03 S. Bowman
Boo Hoo, Bud Polhill didn't stand a chance of winning the nomination. He frittered away any good will by blubbering on about the nomination process, which is not much different than other Parties'. He didn't allow his team enough time to sign up members, besides, how would he possibly catch up to Khalil Ramal's 1500 memberships? He couldn't. Anyway, I think that if you look at the fact that Ramal is a very good organizer, he could prove the spoiler, especially if he puts up a good get out the vote effort on election day. That didn't happen with the Liberals last time, so, combine his organization, with good Liberal polling #'s , and you just might see Ramal pull this one off.
11/04/03 El Predicto
As I mentioned before, Frank Mazzillis was going to win this riding no matter who the Liberals had. The Liberals just made it easier for Frank by nominating Khalil Ramal instead of Bud Polhill. This very bitter nomination split the London Fanshawe Liberal riding association. Bud himself said he was angry at the whole nomination procedure. This just makes it easier for Mazzilli to keep his seat. I stand by my earlier prediction.
01/04/03 ATGS
Ouch. Bud Polhill has lost the Liberal nomination twice now, judging from Mr. Ramal's name to the left. For a former Councillor and current Controller, that has got to hurt just a bit. As for how this race is shaping up, Polhill's loss is good news for Mathyssen. This race will be a tight three way race, but one that Mathyssen and the NDP should win. The NDP has been climbing in the polls, and in London Fanshawe Ms. Mathyssen is already campaigning hard. This should definitely be listed as a tight three way race (PC's drop 6, Libs drop 2, NDP picks up 8 and you have all three at 33%! Each party's province wide numbers have had that much mobility.). But in the end, I think the Irene Mathyssen will win the race clearly -- a solid candidate, solid platform, solid local campaign, and solid provincial campaign will work together to win this seat for the NDP.
01/04/03 THE GAMBLER
The Gambler is putting his money on Frank Mazzilli to win London-Fanshawe. The LIBs had a sure winner in Bud Polhill but instead picked Khalil Ramal to carry their colour in the upcoming race. Mazzilli will now win this race in a walk. Cash in your RSPs and bet it all on Mazzilli to win.
28/03/03 El Predicto
Robert E is another NDP daydreamer if he thinks Irene Mathyssen will poll 36-44 per cent this time. What Irene will do is get enough oppositon vote to keep Bud Polhill from taking this riding from Frank Mazzili. This is a classic example of the vote split giving the Tories a seat. I know Polhill isn't nominated yet but he is favoured to tak the nomination on March 30. Bud will come close but the vote split will keep him from victory. I stand by my prediction that the Tories will hold this seat.
23/03/03 robert e
I quite enjoy reading folks differing opinions in different ridings. I wonder how many are regular folks and how many are queen's park staff (or riding staff). I read with interest El Predictico stating that Irene Mathenson finished a "weak third" last election. Lets see now, winner 38%, 2nd 35% and 3rd (Matheson) 25%. That is NOT a weak third! Seems to me if Matheson polled more than twice the ONDP did province wide (25% vs. 12%), she will be in this 3-way race (also consider that the ONDP is polling anywhere from 18%-22% recently depending on poll, questions etc - so maybe she will poll 36% - 44% this election?). As for the comment that the Liberals are weeks away from nominating a candidate, I see that one is nominated and I am posting a mere 8 days after El Predictico's comments.
21/03/03 Scott Bowman
I see you've called the Nomination race for the London Fanshawe Liberals in Bud Polhill's favor. Quite Possibly. But here are some points to remember-1) The Nomination meeting for the Liberals here is March 30th. 2) Mr. Polhill is running against Khalil Ramal. 3) The race will be close, because Mr. Ramal has signed up over 1,000 members and Mr. Polhill hasn't matched that number. It will all come down to who brings out the vote, and how many memberships are challenged at the meeting. It'll be fun I'm sure!
Editor Note: We apologize for the previous error. The Liberal Party will hold their nomination on March 30th
14/03/03 El Predicto
Tory Frank Mazzilli isn't the strongest memberof the government but in this riding Frank has enough to keep this seat. Mazzilli is facing Irene Mathysen again for the NDP. She finished a weak third here last time. The Liberals haven't nominated their candidate here yet and won't for another few weeks. No question the Liberals have had a hard time finding a candidate here. It will be one of the last ridings they nominate a candidate. In the mean time Mazzilli is working away in the riding. Frank should be able to hold off his challengers and will keep this seat Tory.
11/03/03 RWA
A split lefty vote might just allow Mazzili to smeak through again.
27/02/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
While Marion Boyd was London's strongest NDP candidate in 1999, London-Fanshawe had the city's strongest natural NDP *constituency*, so they targeted *that* as well...and Irene Mathyssen was strategically endorsed...and she still wound up third. Worse, the Tory won, to the surprise of everyone who thought they'd write this incumbentless one off. Now that Boyd's a non-factor, it's possible that the NDP'll make Fanshawe more of a priority target than Boyd's NC this time around; though if it's Mathyssen again, don't know how many times they can recycle her 'til she sticks. Once again, probably, we're looking at no candidate cresting 40%...
22/01/03 Josef Kunzler
Email: josef_kunzler@hotmail.com
You can bet that an MPP with the only claim to fame being, "Why don't you shut your trap, Sandra, so the rest of us can hear," will be roasted for a long, long time - especially by this (Sandra) Pupatellomaniac (symptoms similar to Trudeaumania). Plus, with Sandra Pupatello for all practical purposes running the war against the Toryban with Grit President Greg Sobara, you can bet that Frank Mazzilli's trap will be slammed shut by a star Liberal candidate. Moreover, the infamous quote will be replayed over and over again because I am going to make a bold prediction that this good fight will be all about one thing and one thing only: freedom and the ability of your elected representatives at the local and provincial levels to do their jobs against the Toryban tide of concentrated power. Food for thought.
07/01/03 WR
In the last provinical election, the Liberals placed second. The only current alternative is the Liberal party. Even with a strong NDP canidate, the voters will remember the poor economic policies when the NDP governed and their sell out of organized labour in the social contract. The voters are ready to send a clear message to the current PC government. Their health, education and social policies are not the direction this riding wishes to support any longer. The voters want a change. At present voting for an individual only vs a new government is not realistic to bring real change for the riding.
05/12/02 SM
The NDP have had their hearts set on winning back this riding. Because of recent polls, and the NDP's excellent performance the last couple years, I'd expect this one to be a real upset to the tories and Liberals. It will be one of a few narrow NDP gains this time around.
09/11/02 ATGS
The London Fanshawe NDP has re-elected Irene Mathyssen as their candidate. This should be a tough three-way battle, but a strong central campaign and continued improvement province wide should made this riding (demographically their most strong in London) a winner for the NDP.

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