Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003


Last Update:
3:15 PM 01/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
17 October 2002

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
Marianne Wilkinson
Progressive Conservative:
Norm Sterling
New Democratic Party:
Jim Ronson
Green Party:
John Baranyi

Norm Sterling

Federal MP:
Scott Reid

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

31364 58.4%

17323 32.26%

2713 5.05%

1450 2.7%

681 1.27%

171 0.32%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality1 859
Scott Reid
24 670 38.9%
Ian Murray
22 811 36%
Bryan Brulotte
12 430 19.6%
Theresa Kiefer
1 946 3.1%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation72.00%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born88.00%
Ontario Born73.02%
Visible Minority6.16%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$149944

College/Trade School29260

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30/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
Sterling should have a respectable showing. He has represented the riding continuously since 1977 and has weathered election storms much greater that this one, (as the Tories revive in the last days, of course !)
30/09/03 lrs
some papers saying Stirling and Eves are only safe cabinet seats- assume he can hold on-
28/09/03 CWK
With the recent influx of immigration into the area (I live on a newer street where only 3 out of 20 households was born in Canada); the federal Liberals have done a fine job "educating" the newcomers that it is the Liberal Party which allowed them into the country. (Having family members who teach ESL in the area, there is an undeniable bias when performing naturalization of the new citiens to swing them towards the Liberal party). Since most are non-english speaking and are living 6 or 7 to a house, the yuppe-laiden Kanata which another poster had stated below is not necessarily the norm within the Kanata high-tech sector anymore; especially in the areas closest to the North Technology park. Although Norm Sterling will make his presence known, the former Kanata mayor (Wilkinson) will have welcomed these people to the area over the past 2-3 years curing citezenship ceremonies, and will be a recognizable figure on the ballot sheet, riding the Liberal banner.
25/09/03 Craig
The article about Sterling being 'absent' will not likely affect this riding. Rural Lanark County and even the rural parts of West Carleton are essentially 'Simcoe East' and it would probably never leave the Tory column. The suburban sections (which are increasing in population) should be an even split, possibly leaning Liberal. However, when the night is through, Sterling should survive to sit on the opposition benches (probably the only Tory from Eastern Ontario), even though it will be a reduced margin. Current prediction: Sterling 51%, Wilkinson 41%, Ronson 5%, others 3%.
23/09/03 A
If today's Ottawa Citizen article (Sterling fights absentee image Incumbent MPP feels wrath of voters who say he's out of touch with his riding) is any indication then Norm Sterling is in an "uphill" battle in the face of accusations that he's an absentee MPP.
Sterling fights absentee image, Incumbent MPP feels wrath of voters who say he's out of touch with his riding
23/09/03 IBM
I think that this riding is going to be a toss up between Sterling and Wilkinson. Sterling is being pilloried by people in the riding by being continually absent from the riding and generally being unavailable to his constituents. One constituent even thought he was dead! Wilkinson is well-known, especially in Lanark where close to half of the voters are. All in all, and even though this is supposedly a PC stronghold, I would give the edge to Wilkinson just because Sterling has alienated many of his constituents.
29/08/03 WD
Rusty is going to have to carry the can on the hydro file. The NDP are gonna make hydro a top issue here. That plays for the Liberals -- since NC is too conservative to vote for the NDP. I admit the margin will be thin, but Baird could go down and I want to be on record for saying it in case I'm right.
21/07/03 Bottom-feeder
Email: letstalk@sympatico.ca
The Tories don't deserve to be re-elected. But in this, the last bastion of Alliance support in Ontario, the gun-totting PC supporters will come out in full force. Heck, if capital punishment was still legal the posse would hand em' high here, I can't image a Liberal ever getting elected here. Even if the PC's lost every other riding they'd win 'em here. Heck the Freedom Party should run a candidate here...
17/07/03 Robert Jones
This one's staying with Norm. The rural portions of this riding are still very angry with the federal Liberals. This will trasnlate into the anything but Liberal vote with most of it going to Norm. Besides if we elect Wilkinson does that mean the whole province will have to have colour matched garage doors and cedar hedges no more than 4 feet high?
12/05/03 Grizz
One of two ridings that voted for the Canadian Alliance in the federal election, this could be the only surviving PC riding in Eastern Ontario.
03/05/03 Craig
Safest Tory seat in Eastern Ontario (and possibly the only Tory survivor east of Whitby) should stay with Norm Sterling despite the collapse of the party. The Liberals should make gains in the suburban areas, but solid blue rural Lanark County should make up for the losses. Predicted results: PC 51%, LIB 40%, NDP 5%, Green 3%.
17/02/03 S. Webb
I have to assume the previous poster is a partisan Liberal... because anyone with any local knowledge wouldn't make that argument. Wilkinson dosen't have a chance. Even in a Liberal landslide, Norm would win. Lanark county votes heavily Tory, were talking Soviet style pluralities. Kanata and West Carleton are somewhat swing, but Norm's personal popularity is very high. So Wilkinson would have to sweep Kanata and West Carleton by something in the neighbourhood of 70% to win. I mean, Dwight Eastman, a VERY popular former Mayor of West Carleton didn't even put a dent in Norm's margin last time, if I am not mistaken he lost his own poll! I know a lot of the local Liberals in Ottawa and they will not waste much of their resources here.
12/02/03 Anna
Norm Sterling dose not have a chance with Marianne Wilkenson running for the Liberals .People say how could she leave the Tory party like a lot of us Tories the party has left us and her. I am voting Liberal becauce we need a change in Queens Park. Be sides Norm dose not even live in our ridding and hasnt for years. I know Marrianne will work hard and live in our riding so the chioces she makes will affect her as well as her costituency. Norm could care less if he dosent have to put up with his bad choices since he dose not even live here.
16/11/02 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Don't forget, too, that this is held federally by Scott Reid, the more competent of Ontario's two Alliancers. (Ironically, Norm Sterling's a classic Davis Tory!) Even allowing to the proximity to McGuintyville and the swing potential in hi-tech yuppie Kanata, I can't see much more than the Grits winning more polls than they have since 1987...
06/07/02 Andrew Cox
PC win but narrow. Marianne Wilkinson, the normally rock solid PC mayor of Kanata, indicated she will run for the Liberal nomination in this normally rock solid PC seat. That's an indication of how much this riding is changing with the growth of Ottawa as a rural riding becomes a suburban one. "They have become much less open to helping people, and they have also started to interfere with the democratic process," Ms. Wilkinson said in the Ottawa Citizen announcing her run. Norm Sterling will still win (it hasn't changed THAT much) but he's going to have a fight on his hand for the first time in a long time.
16/10/02 Craig
With Norm Sterling at the controls, this riding is a Tory safe zone. Even though they may lose province-wide, this is probably the most right-wing seat in Ontario outside the 905 belt (but this is mostly a suburban riding, with 85% of the population in the suburban sections: Kanata, old West Carleton and east Lanark County). The Liberals and NDP should not even bother running a strong candidate, it will be wasted.

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