Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Kitchener Centre

Last Update:
9:51 PM 30/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
11:28 PM 3/30/2003

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
John Milloy
Progressive Conservative:
Wayne Wettlaufer
New Democratic Party:
Ted Martin
Green Party:

Wayne Wettlaufer

Federal MP:
Karen Redman

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

22593 50.15%

17984 39.92%

3494 7.76%

561 1.25%

204 0.45%

109 0.24%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality11 908
Karen Redman
23 511 52.8%
Eloise Jantzi
11 603 26.1%
Steven Daniel Gadbois
6 162 13.8%
Paul Royston
3 058 6.9%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation68.40%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born75.95%
Ontario Born66.78%
Visible Minority8.98%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$145232

College/Trade School25335

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30/09/03 lrs
Tory's MPP complaints of media bias should be seen as a sign of desperation-I may agree that the media hasn't picked up much on the weaknesses of the LIB and BNDP policies as they do pertaining to Tories mistakes but bad PC provincial campaign and local MPP's comments over the years should mean defeat. Still, it would be odd if her pulls a higher percentage than Witmer in Kit-Wat-why would NDP vote go much higher since the Record reported Martin has filed for School Bd again.Is that right?
30/09/03 L. Fridenburg
Although I am likely to vote for Wayne Wettlaufer, he has no hope of returning to Queens Park. He is the biggest asset that the Liberals have in this riding. I will be vote for the party not for the person. Wayne is always highly visible at "glad handing" events, but is invisible whenever controversial issues are tabled. This region owes a lot to Liz Witmer, but nothing to Wayne Wettlaufer. I remember the Peterson days all too well to cast my vote for the Liberal Party.
27/09/03 Waterloo Region Insider
As unmotivating a speaker as Milloy is (he kind of sounds like Kevin Spacey on valium - except the audience wants to fall asleep), he will win in Kitchener-Centre. He's memorized all of the Liberal stock phrases - McGuinty-ese - and his experience at the PMO will win points in Kitchener-Centre, despite his lack of involvment in this community. As for the Tories, at Thursday's Ontario Health Coalition debate, Wettlaufer explained that the reason the Tories haven't increased spending in Mental Health is that it's not important, so it's not a priority. He then got upset and told the room that his constituents just won't listen to him. One does not need to wonder why... The NDP's Ted Martin will see a substantial increase in support from his run in '99 in K-W, but the Teachers' Unions' endorsement of Milloy has hurt him.
26/09/03 The Big Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
Some previous postings mention that this was a Liberal call in 99 and it went PC with a majority. Claims that an NDP resurgance would hurt the Liberals and help the PCs was also mentioned. True but the fact reamains that this time around the PC leader is not as well liked as in 99, the Liberals are way ahead in the polls with less than 1 week to go and the NDP support is not all that different than in 99. Having said that, I do think Kitchener center would go Liberal, though I'm not as adminant about it as some of the other posters.
17/09/03 Craig
I think this riding is almost dead even between the Tories and Liberals. John Milloy is strong, but Wayne Wettlaufer is the incumbent and that might help here. He was only re-elected in 1999 because of a very weak Liberal candidate (which he does not have the luxury of this time) however the NDP might snare a few (not too many, but it could be enough to tip the balance) votes out of the Liberals' pool as well. I think it will be one of the races to watch on election night. Current prediction: Milloy 43%, Wettlaufer 42%, Martin 13%, others 2%.
09/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: ericbucholz@hotmail.com
Remember the last time that riding was predicted to go Liberal ? The Tory won by a majority. Now we have a highly probably resurgent NDP vote to consider, which will probably force the Liberal to grab ever more percentages of swing voters than likely polling trends would provide. If the last election is any indication, the Tory vote here came in higher than province wide. From that basis, if the early campaign polls hold true, we would be looking at PC 43, Liberal 41 and NDP 10, something like that, for Kitchener Centre. This is no sure Liberal win. The riding is competitive, with the edge to the Tories.
05/09/03 Downtown
If the Milloy people think they have a freebie in Kitchener Centre, they are in for a big shock - and the comments on here that say Wettlaufer doesn't have a profile in his own riding are obviously coming from people not in the riding. No, nobody outside Kitchener Centre knows who he is, but you better believe he's spent the better part of 8 years doing a LOT of constituency work. Tack on the fact that in '99, Berry Vrbanovic - a much higher-profile Grit than PMO boy John Milloy - was supposed to be a big threat to Wettlaufer, and it wasn't even close (50%-39%). And that was with a weak NDP vote! So the only hope the Liberals have in this riding is that the NDP vote collapses again - and judging by Howard Hampton's aggressive campaigning and candidate Ted Martin's visibility, if the NDP takes 15%, the Liberals are in trouble.
03/09/03 JAmes Bow
Wayne Wettlaufer hasn't made much of a splash in his eight years at Queen's Park, and he still doesn't have much of a profile in his riding. If the tide turns against the Conservatives in this election, Wettlaufer will definitely be one of the casualties.
18/07/03 Hi Tech
Mayor McCheese was right when he said it was all over for Wettlaufer when his office assistant ran against him for the party nomination. The Kithener Record made this front page news and Wettlaufer was a laughing stock. Now along comes John Milloy who has a sterling record and he looks like an MPP. Soon Milloy will not only look and sound like an MPP. He'll be one.
16/07/03 Happy Camper
Wayne Wettlaufer wouldn't be around to run for re-election this time if the Liberals had run anyone other than a loser like Barry Vrbanovic in 1999. Wettlaufer was lucky and nothing more to escape defeat last time. Jumping ahead to 2003, Wayne's luck has finally run out. John Milloy is a solid candidate who will make Wettlaufer look like a goof in the all candidates debates. I hope Wettlaufer has another career in mind because his time at Queen's Park is up. Milloy is going to sweep Kitchener Centre.
10/07/03 Mayor McCheese
It looks like the few people left working on poor Wettlaufer's campaign are filling this site up with posts. Come on, Wayne is so bad that his own staffer ran against him for the nomination and had lots of old time Tories support him. If your own party is divided on whether you're a good candidate, then how do you expect people to vote for you. John Milloy hasn't lived in Kitchener his whole life, that's true. However, Milloy is well spoken and highly thought of by the community. Wettlaufer came in on the Commonsense Revolution and he'll go out with it.
09/07/03 AL
I thought Wayne might be vulnerable, but excuse me, who is this Liberal? Someone parachuted in from the PMO? That isn't going to fly. It will probably be close, but everyone seems to underestimate Wettlaufer. I certainly thought he'd be in a dogfight in '99 but he clobbered his opponent then, and I think he'll do it again. His profile provinicially might be zero but he's built a lot of bridges in the community, and thats what counts on election day.
08/07/03 Teacher2B
Piggly Wiggly makes one assuption too many. Yes, this will be a tough riding to win. However, Everyone is pretty sure that Witmer will win next door hands down. She is a 'Home Grown' - something that Milloy is definitley not. Bender asks for change in the riding. What kind of change can we expect from someone who has not lived here long enough to know what we have now. Yes, Wettlafuer has been here for a while. Long enough to know what it means to put the dukes up, even against your own party. Is Milloy strong or experienced enough to fight against his party for Kitchener Centre? Just something to think about. It'll be close and tough. I say the conservatives still have a hold and can win it.
04/07/03 Piggly Wiggly
Should the Liberals form the next government, John Milloy has all the qualities required to be a cabinet minister. We all know that Wayne Wettlaufer has none of the qualities to sit at the cabinet table and never will. People in Kitchener Centre are tired of having the riding next door always having a cabinet minister and want one of their own. That's why they'll elect Milloy in a landslide.
28/06/03 Bender
Sam's Quest keeps on saying "John Who" when talking about Liberal candidate John Milloy. While it's true that not everyone in Kitchener knows John Milloy, that's not an advantage for the Conservative. Their problem is that everyone knows Wayne Wettlaufer. People know Wayne and know it's time for a change in this riding. Milloy is going to be the next MPP for Kitchener Centre.
18/06/03 Sam`s Quest
John WHO??!! What`s he ever done for this community? Not his mom or siblings.... him! In what way is he well-respected in the area? He hasn`t even lived here for years. Even his own campaign literature is silent in the arena of listing his accomplishments or history in Kitchener, because it doesn`t exist. I repeat: John WHO??!!
06/06/03 Reepo Man
I think it was a sensible thing to do calling this race over and Milloy the winner. John Milloy is well respected in the community while Wayne Wettlaufer is seen as a lame duck MPP. Milloy will win because he's the best candidate and that's how it should be.
23/05/03 Grizz
With Wayne's alledged incompetence and sinking Tory fortunes this one is very likely going Liberal.
21/05/03 A
This is a bellwether. Conventional wisdom might say it would be close, except, th pundits said the same thing in '99 and he still coasted to a win. Milloy isn't known around town, either. Tory win.
13/05/03 J.S
Email: unclejoesayshello@yahoo.co.uk
Wettlaufer is an incompetant fool, this seat is a marginal, Grits soaring, Tories collapsing= Grit win.
08/05/03 El Predicto
I really don't understand what d.edwards was doing at a Liberal meeting with Dave Levac last fall if he's really a Tory. Sounds very fishy to me. It seems like the Tories are quite upset that this site has called Kitchener Centre for John Milloy. All you have to do is look at the amount of local media Milloy is getting to see that he's winning here. Meanwhile Wayne is still trying to turn around the story that his executive assistant ran against him for the Tory nomination in Kitchener Centre. I stand by my prediction that Milloy wins this riding by a wide margain.
17/04/03 d. edwards
When Dave Levac (the Liberal MPP from Brant Riding) met with the Liberal Riding Association last fall, he told us that every time Wettlaufer stood up in the Legislature he extolled the virtues of Kitchener Centre. He told us that if we hoped to beat Wettlaufer, we would have to learn the riding as well as Wettlaufer knows it. Unfortunately, that was a ringing endorsement for the present MPP. Then we go ahead and nominate a guy who hasn't even lived in the riding for about fifteen years, but claims to have strong roots here. Kitchener people are loyal to their own!
17/04/03 Larry
Interesting, seeing some comments which appear to be quite subjective, especially 2 comments from the same individual. The P.C. incumbent was elected in '95 and re-elected in '99 (something NO P.C. had been able to do in any previous Kitchener Provincial election) but what makes '99 so interesting is that he won with 50+% of the riding's votes! That, unlike this time, was against a well-known Liberal candidate when many experts thought the Liberals would win Kitchener Centre "hands-down". When the Liberal Riding Association has to "import" someone with Federal Liberal "strings attached" knowing Ontario voters have not, traditionally, supported the same party (whether P.C. or Liberal) in both Federal and Provincial elections has to make any smart individual wonder! Is it because they can't find someone prominent enough locally who is willing to run (and lose) again? Unless we see a Liberal landslide (extremely unlikely with their present leadership) throughout the province this seat should again be won by the P.C.'s, with the substantial investments in health, education and infrastructure our government has made to this area. History shows people vote with their "pocket-books" and, given tax reductions in the past 2 terms along with these investments, should indicate that history repeats itself once again.
15/04/03 Sam`s Quest
Tory riding all the way. Wayne W. handily won the `99 election over Liberal Berry Vrbanovic - a well-known local boy. Now the Liberals run in a new candidate who, while he may have been born in Kitchener, hasn`t lived there for many years. Mr. Malloy`s literature is notable for its lack of content. Even he knows he has no local accomplishments, and he only lists that his mother and siblings live in the riding. The NDP has not even chosen a candidate yet. Mr. Wettlaufer and his Party are largely responsible for the unprecidented growth and prosperity Kitchener Centre riding now enjoys. He can stand on his local reputation and accomplishments. The Liberal candidate cannot. Tory all the way.
28/03/03 El Predicto
Wayne Wettlaufer is looking more and more like he knows he's in trouble. This week he joined Bob Wood in taking shots at his own party for presenting the budget outside of the legislature. John Milloy is going to take Kitchener Centre. Time to move it into the Liberal column.
17/03/03 THE GAMBLER
The Gambler is putting his money on John Milloy to win Kitchener Centre. This is another one of my exclusive upset specials. The PC's have taken Wetlaufer out at the knees and Wayne is finished. Word is that Welaufer is not a team players. Milloy wins this one in a walk.
10/03/03 A Cameron
Wettlaufer hasn't been there for the riding and clearly, so, clearly, his staffer/strategist guy is attacking him, as well as opportunitistically running for the nomination. Meanwhile: John Milloy. Bright. Articulate. Connected. Endorsed. If I weren't in Ottawa, I'd go knock on doors. I may yet send a donation. A good Liberal breakthrough which gets bigger if there is a Liberal wave.
27/02/03 ME
Somehow I doubt that Witmer will "do all she can to save Wayne". Wayne is not the brightest bulb on the Tories string, and Witmer and him are hardly on the best of terms, especially after Wayne decided not to support her for leadership.
26/02/03 El Predicto
When you're the sitting MPP and your executive assistant runs against you for the nomination, you are in big trouble. Wayne Wettlaufer has received nothing but bad press since this story broke and it's going to cost him his job. The Liberal candidate, John Milloy has a good reputation in Kitchener and seems to have a well organized campaign so far. Wettlaufer's team is split and weakened by the in house fighting. Liz Witmer next door will do all she can to save Wayne but it won't be enough. Mark this one down for the Liberals.
1/02/03 M.S.
This was a Tory safe seat until a couple weeks ago when David Maxwell decided he couldn't stand his boss any longer and would try to unseat him. This is riveting political drama, and horribly damaging to Wettlaufer. Every subsequent news story coming out of this saga is another nail in the coffin for the Tories here. And the local Tories are just making it worse by trying to block Maxwell's attempt to seek the nomination. I don't know why they would want to drag out a bad news story and give Maxwell another chance to put nasty comments in print that will inevitably show up in a campaign brochure for either the Liberals or NDP, or likely both. And since the NDP don't have any reasonable chance here, I think this is enough to but John Milloy over the top and take this seat for the Liberals.
30/01/03 KW Record
Staffer eyes job as MPP Wettlaufer fires right-hand man
30/01/03 Andrew Cox
Wettlaufer's long-time principal advisor and campaign manager is running against him for the nomination and calling Wettlaufer an "out of touch" "asinine" "government apologist" "who has systematically destroyed his political base" and "people shudder every time they hear him."
This new information really undermines my belief that Wettlaufer could put together a strong campaign. This kind of schism will break up the riding association, demotivate workers, hurt fundraising and cost Wettlaufer his experienced campaign manager, if not more of his top advisors. Plus, the person who worked with Wettlaufer for years thinks he's a terrible MPP. That's not very good for the old reputation. Just imagine the chattering going on in Kitchener over this high-profile political meltdown.
This changes my thinking from too close to call to strong possibility of an upset. It reveals major problems with the local PC campaign that are enough to turn my prediction.
13/01/03 James Bow
Too close to call. Wettlaufer is a likeable guy, but he has been practically invisible. A strong Liberal candidate should be enough to topple him if there's no Conservative landslide about. But until we see who the Liberal candidate is, there are no guarantees.
10/01/03 Andrew Cox
Too Close to Call. 1) Classic bellweather riding, as AS stated. Like Peterborough, London West or Etobicoke North, it will go with the government. 2) Liberals nominated an interesting candidate in John Milloy, an Oxford PhD with strong contacts in the Liberal establishment and roots in KW. He could be a very saleable item at the doors of an education and high-tech manufacturing community. And as a veteran of Jean Chretien's PMO and the Liberal War Room in 2000, Milloy isn't going to let the PCs control the local campaign agenda. But the Chretien connection could be a negative this year. 3) Wayne Wettlaufer has a solid folksy image that goes over well with the community's large and conservative German population. But this is a shrinking demographic in what is increasingly becoming a multicultural urban centre. Wettlaufer also doesn't have a masive record to run on. Checking his website waynewettlaufermpp.com you notice that the sections on community accomplishmen! ts, education, health care, etc, simply say "place information here." His defining accomplishment is a bill proclaiming "German Pioneers Day", a sentimental but hardly bread-and-butter accomplishment. 4) Its striking that, while the Alliance party did much better here than the Tories in the last federal election, their combined vote was just 39%.
31/10/02 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Belwether central. While far enough down the Tory totem pole to be temptingly targetable (and in an "urban" riding, yet), Wettlaufer held on fairly decisively in 1999 against a popular Liberal councillor. (And in the process, the NDP's teeth were knocked out in a hitherto grassroots-organized riding.) What happens now may depend on where the polls go, or where the NDP goes...

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