Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Hamilton East

Last Update:
2:34 AM 11/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
23 October 2002

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
Dominic Agostino
Progressive Conservative:
Sohail Bhatti
New Democratic Party:
Bob Sutton
Green Party:
Jo Pavlov

Dominic Agostino

Federal MP:
Hon. Sheila Copps

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

17891 53.73%

7414 22.26%

6304 18.93%

496 1.49%

386 1.16%

288 0.86%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality10 396
Sheila Copps
16 435 52.9%
Joshua Conroy
6 039 19.4%
Jim Stevenson
4 111 13.2%
Steven Knight
3 321 10.7%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation57.20%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born74.49%
Ontario Born65.34%
Visible Minority9.41%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$113706

College/Trade School20250

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I'm glad that waaaaay down on the page, SM had the guts to actually state that the NDP would win this riding. Dominic Agostino has always fought like an NDPer and is very strong on social issues like housing and welfare. Dominic is hardnosed like the working class riding that he represents and that is enough to get to get him elected again. And come on people, let's leave people's personal life out of this. Mr. Agostino's preference has nothing to do with how well he represets his constituents.
05/06/03 QueerNation
Safe for the Liberals. The commentary on this page is annoying. Let's call a spade a spade. Agostino is gay. It's not a "lifestyle": living in a cabin in the north or on a farm in the country or in a downtown toronto loft is a lifestyle. Being gay fits no cardboard cut out. That all being said, by being sort of "out" but not "out", Agostino threatens his chances at Cabinet if (and I still think it's an if) the Liberals win.
03/06/03 JR
This is about as safe a seat as the Liberals will find. I'm not an Agostino fan by any stretch of the imagination, and find him to be rather ineffective. He talks a lot, but he doesn't say too much and he's rather evasive. But that doesn't matter to Hamilton East voters. The Liberals could run any member of the animal kingdom in this riding, and still walk away with it.
31/05/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Re the murmurs about Agostino's lifestyle: first, nothing short of Ashley McIsaac-scale revelations (or broader electoral shifts) will knock him out. Second, his constituency-guy rep more than makes up for cabinet potential (or lack thereof). Third: get real. Governing is pragmatic, the provincial Liberal party's a big egalitarian pot, the classic Trudeau "stay out of the bedroom" principle still holds, and regardless of his personal convictions, Dalton McGoo's likely to choose according to merit, not lifestyle--case in point: the one "out" MPP, George Smitherman, is a dead cert for cabinet, I'd imagine. Finally, bear in mind that Hamilton East's (and all of Ontario's, for that matter) most left-field candidate in 1999 was the *FCP* candidate: Edgar Breau, former frontman for legendary 70s rock avant-gardists Simply Saucer. (A Velvet Revolution emerging from the Family Coalition; imagine that...)
26/04/03 IanB
Agostino may have supported Kennedy for the leadership way back in 1996, but that was a while back and Agostino has become a strong supporter of McGuinty now, as have others in the Liberal caucus. There's no way Agostino will lose this riding -- he's just too popular and many people in the East End see him as an excellent riding representative, and he is (some people who usually don't like the Liberals, and I know them, will vote for Agostino just because they see him as an effective advocate for his riding). Agostino has been consistently elected in various capacities (trustee, councillor, MPP) for the last twenty-odd years and I don't see him going anywhere (although, to be fair, so was Tony Silipo before the '99 election but he still lost). As for Agostino's cabinet chances, I think he has proven himself to be a good critic in his various capacities and will probably be in Cabinet; I think most of the Liberals that have been around since 1995 will be in Cabinet should McGuinty win the election.
12/04/03 ME
Mike d, last time I checked Dominic supported one GERRARD KENNEDY for leadership. And to Panther, I am not suggesting one should be excluded from cabinet position for his/her personal life, and honestly I think Dominic is more competant than most of the Liberal caucus, I am suggesting one will be excluded if a social conservative like McGuinty is calling the shot.
11/04/03 paul
Easy Liberal win. The only question is whether the NDP can improve on the last showing and place second . They have a shot at 2nd place , although distant the have nominated the same candidate Bob Sutton, the Tories have yet to find a candidate that wants to be a sacrificial lamb in the riding.Dominic is also an easy pick to be a senior member of Dalton's cabinet, possibly enviroment or housing.
10/04/03 mike d
Agostino is a shoo in for a cabinet post. He is the senior member from Hamilton, he is consistently a strong supporter of McGuinty, has lots of political experience and clearly one of the most effective members of the opposition in the house. He will win his seat easily and is easily the strongest provincial liberal in Hamilton. In regards to personal life issue raised in the other e mail if that was a prime consideration for cabinet choices half the provincila or federal cabinet would not be there.
10/04/03 Panther
The last time I checked this was an "election prediction website" and not a "who-will-be-in-cabinet prediction website". That's my first point. My second point, ME would be best to stay away from gutter politics. I could give a flying flip what Agostino does (or doesn't do) in his private life, as long as he is a good representative for my riding and a good Minister. Unfortunately for Agostino, I don't think he will make it to Cabinet though, since, quite frankly, I don't the Liberals will be forming government anytime soon. Agostino will win this Liberal-riding hands down (and so he should!)
0/04/03 ME
There are bigger reasons preventing Dominic from being a Cabinet Minister than the referenced "headline hunting" or lack of "gravitas". McGuinty, being a born-again social liberal (ie former social conservative) will be hard press to appoint someone like Dominic to the inner circle. Staffers working in Toronto are well aware that Dominic's personal life is a scandal bomb waiting to be exploded.
04/04/03 Petrol Pete
Email: petrolpete@hotmail.com
One of the safest Grit seats in Ontario as a result of recent voting patterns, the Copps/Agostino war machine, and non-stop publicity for Agostino as a city councillor and as an MPP. However, while this is a sure tally for the Grits, don't expect Agostino to translate the score into a major Cabinet post. Agostino works hard no doubt and scores points in the Spectator but his constant self-promotion and the snail's pace growth in his skills other than headline hunting will limit his upward ability in a McGuinty government. McGuinty's advisors just don't think that Agostino has the gravitas to play a serious role quite yet. His work ethic and connections will get him a Whip's position or another junior Cabinet post, but expect Bountrogianni to be McGuinty's fair haired candidate for a more senior posting like Colleges and Universities.
01/04/03 Stelco Steve
After Sheila Copps, Dominic is the most popular politician in Hamilton. Dominic can have Hamilton East as long as he wants to run. Nobody can touch him here.
18/03/03 lrs
although I do not live in area-Liberal MPP seems to represent left of centre wing of party that wins urban working class seats that could be NDP seats- You would think NDP should finish second here with past history of holding seat and if NDP prov.wide gains in support hold- I am assuming that seat so safe for Liberals that is all NDP can hope for tis time
28/02/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
To PMK: provincially, the "long Liberal history" really only goes back to Agostino's election in 1995. Before that, under Bob Mackenzie, it was more along the lines of the safest *NDP* seat in Ontario. Federally, yes, it's Tequila Sheila and John Munro before her--but even they were tightly tagged by the NDP in weak Liberal years. But now, it's more about the seatholder than about the party. And Agostino in 1999 outpolled Copps in '96, '97, and '00. And if the NDP comes back in Hamilton East, it'll be more along the lines of a Layton standardbearer giving Sheila a scare--provincially, the threat is paradoxically minimal these days...
27/02/03 Panther
This riding prediction is virtually a no-brainer. Hamilton East is a Liberal strong-hold. Even without Agostino as the Liberal member, it would still likely vote Liberal. However, Agostino is a strong, popular, constituency MPP, who is well-liked in his riding. The Agostino-factor will only increase his plurality.
27/02/03 PMK
With a long Liberal history, this may be their safest seat in all of Ontario.
14/02/03 IanB
Dominic Agostino will hold this seat. The demographics support a Liberal hold (high immigrant population, blue-collar people, and people of Italian origin, who are always a good bet to vote Liberal), plus the fact that Agostino is just a hard-working MPP who people respect for what he does. Regardless of how high NDP support is in the area (besides who knows what goes on in the Legislature anyway?), I see Dominic holding on. The NDP that once appealed to urban Hamilton steelworkers and the working class is no more, replaced by a party who appeals to middle-class social democrats and the "loony left." Agostino will be in the Legislature after the next election.
19/01/03 John Spence
Common people, this is Dominic Agostino we are talking about here. It is not that he is Liberal or Italian that will win him this seat for a third time. It is because his constituents in Hamilton East come first. I have found this man extremely constituency oriented. For as long as he has been my representative and that goes back to his days as Alderman he has never backed down from a fight.
Editor's Note: Partisan text filtered.
19/01/03 john L.
the libs with Agostino will win this in a walk, he is the most popular MPP in Hamilton, great political organization and picks up a lot of traditional NDP support, not even close the NDP was a poor third last time in the riding
17/01/03 Andrew
Dominic has always fought passionately for the little guy, and looked out for the interests of his constituents. For that, the residents of Hamilton East love him. The NDP is irrelevant in Hamilton. This will be an easy Liberal hold.
07/01/03 Ivan
Even if the NDP are up 15% in Hamilton (and they take ALL these votes from the Liberals), this translates into only a third of the total vote. The Liberals would still be over 10% ahead. There is a race is this riding - but it is for second place. Easy Liberal hold.
19/12/02 SM
The Liberals have done truly poorly during this session of the legislature, while the NDP have been on the ball, in terms of policy, and latest polls have them at 22% provincially. The NDP executive is very optimistic about their chances in Hamilton- Just today I heard someone predict and NDP sweep of the city (granted, it's only three seats, one of which is already held, but still- when you're a caucus of 9, 2 more is a big deal). I've seen little evidence that would suggest the Liberals are ready for serious competition from the right and left
02/11/02 IanB
Easy Liberal hold. The Liberal machine in Hamilton East is incredible, and the popularity of the Liberals among ethnic (especially Italian) voters as well as Agostino's own personal popularity make a big Liberal win.
22/10/02 Burke
This should be an easy hold for the Liberals. Dominic has been twice successful in this riding. The Liberal machine is strong in Hamilton East and voters seem comfortable with the grits. Sheila Copps machine is backing Dominic and I predict an easy hold for the Liberals here.

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