Haliburton-Victoria-Brock

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Last Update:
4:43 PM 07/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
9:42 PM 30/09/2003

Political Profile:

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)

Liberal Party:
Jason Ward

Progressive Conservative:
Laurie Scott

New Democratic Party:
Earl Manners

Green Party:
Doug Smith

Incumbent:

Chris Hodgson

Federal MP:

John O'Reilly

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 17569

*CHRIS HODGSON

32125 62.82%

SHARON MCCRAE

14556 28.46%

RICK DENYER

3786 7.4%

BRAD BRADAMORE

340 0.66%

CHARLES OLITO

198 0.39%

MAXIM NEWBY

135 0.26%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 1 119

John O'Reilly

16 710 34%

Pat Dunn

15 591 31.7%

Laurie Scott

14 508 29.5%

Rick Denyer

2 409 4.9%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 109578

1996 108011

1991 100978

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 28865

20-39 26170

40-59 27145

60+ 25825

Avg Household Income
$47577

Labour Participation 58.50%

Unemployment 10.50%

Canadian Citizen
98.27%

Canadian Born 90.85%

Ontario Born 84.44%

Immigrant 9.07%

Visible Minority 0.99%

Aboriginal 0.61%

First Language

English 100845

French 970

Residence

House 88.67%

Apartment 10.30%

Owned 80.94%

Rented 19.06%

Avg Dwelling Value $143336

Education

University 10825

College/Trade School 26735

Secondary 38940

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	01/10/03	teach Email:
All the teachers are supporting Manners? I'd like to know where that information came from. Check out Ward's office and you'll see teachers racing in and out getting canvassing kits and signs. Both OECTA and ETFO have endorsed Ward's campaign. While OSSTF hasn't endorsed any one there are a lot of high school teachers contributing to the Liberals.Manners probably expected teachers to trip all over each other to fall at his feet. That didn't happen. My sources tell me that he has been placing calls to provincial executive members to complain about the lack of support that he has from teachers. High school teachers who live on the same street as Manners haven't been shy about putting up Ward signs.
	01/10/03	Judi Bud Email:
I think there's a good chance Jason Ward is going to finish third in this riding. You have to give the NDP some credit for how they've managed to rise in the polls since the leaders debate. Earl Manners has all the teachers helping him on election day but it won't be near enough for him to challenge Laurie Scott. Scott and maybe Kurt Franklin in Oakville will be the only two new Conservative members of caucus.
	01/10/03	V. Ferrante Email: vferrante1@hotmail.com
I can't believe the sad inevitability that filters through these last submissions. Laurie Scott was a no-show at most of the debates and the ones she did appear for, she was only able to play the part of an observer. If elections were decided by signs, then the race would have been won by Ward before all non-PC signage was 'disappeared' in town. The last Toronto Star poll indicated that Tories had the most support with those over 55 years of age and with a high school education or less. If Scott wins, what does that say about our riding?
	30/09/03	university student Email:
I would love to see Earl Manners seal an NDP victory in this riding. He will have my vote. However there is so many die hard conservatives in this area they will be tough to be beat. Laurie Scott is a popular name in this riding. She will likely win. Jason Ward is a lawyer from Lindsay who is surviving on the Liberal platform. He is not known.
	29/09/03	Willie Email:
I would love this riding to go Liberal. My cottage is smack in the middle of it. However, when I was driving through it on the weekend, it was pretty obvious that the Tories are winning the sign war hands down. While signs are often not a reliable indicator, Scott's plurality means something. Laurie Scott has ads on the radio proclaiming her opposition to gay marriage, telling voters that the Liberal and NDP favor it. I think that this might play well in this area.
	28/09/03	Tory in Dixie Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
Earl Manners hopes to repeat what Dennis Dranville did and take the riding for the NDP. A strong showing, yes, but no go for the NDP. Ms. Scott, having already run federally, can draw on some measure of name recognition, and win election to Queen's Park.
	28/09/03	Gerry Kennedy Email:
This will go Tory, making Laurie Scott the only new Conservative MPP. Even if the Tories lose 20% here (which would be significantly worse than the province wide trend), they are still at 42%. Manners will probably get close to if not 20% (but he certainly won't win the riding) so I suspect Scott will win by about 2,000 voters.
	28/09/03	teach Email:
The Liberals have all but given up??? Huh? Why were they continuing their strong canvassing efforts in the steady downpours and wild winds on Saturday? Doesn't sound like giving up to me. And a lot of residents are indicating that they are voting Liberal, many for the first time ever. Check out the signs on private property. Not much orange there. The last edition of Lindsay This Week has endorsed Jason Ward as the best candidate.
	28/09/03	Grant Email:
NDP? Are you guys nuts? This riding is not going to elect a union boss. Most of the people in the riding don't even know what OSSTF is! The folks around here like hometown boys. He will ride the tide into office.
	27/09/03	Bromley B. Email:
Craig, with all due respect, how can you go about making predictions about almost every riding? Do you actually live in Haliburton-Victoria-Brock? I would agree that the fact the seat is open means it could be up for grabs by any strong candidate; however, the PC's did extremely well here in the last election, and that kind of momentum will always help, although not guarantee re-election. If the Tory vote did collapse here and a large portion of core supporters didn't bother to show up, then I would be more inclined to believe that the Liberal candidate would have a better chance of winning. Earl Manner's strikes me as a devisive parachute candidate who will actually do more to motivate core PC voters and the the block of undecided voters who are tired of teacher's strikes and the rhetoric of union leaders such as Manners. I have no idea of what the thoughts and feelings of the constituents are in this riding, but I find really hard to believe that they would vote for Earl Manners.
	25/09/03	Craig Email:
I have finally decided to call this riding, and despite the lack of a union base, education issues will catapult Earl Manners to Queen's Park due to the fact that the Liberals have all but given up (even though they are flying high province-wide) and the Tories are clearly on their way out (and this seat is open). Manners is clearly a star candidate, the NDP has gained momentum in the final week (even though the last poll is showing 16%, their vote is concentrated in certain ridings) and I think most of the Liberal vote (and some of the Tory vote) is headed for him. Current prediction: Manners 40%, Scott 34%, Ward 21%, Smith 4%, others 1%.
	25/09/03	bored silly Email:
Looking over the submissions here is quite entertaining. It surprises me that some people are so sure of themselves when it comes to predictions. If they were so politically savvy, they'd realize that history is virtually irrelevant when it comes to politics, and a day in the political arena can turn the world upside down. Yup, this area does tend to be conservative (philosophically anyway) but they've voted Liberal and NDP at different times in history. The number of die-hard PC's that I've heard say they'll never vote PC again after, for instance, the budget fiasco, is mind-boggling. How will that translate into votes? People who are conducting telephone canvassing in this area know that at least 50% of the people we talk to say they remain undecided, often because this is a unique election with a lot at stake. Some will not forget the past 8 years, Walkerton, Ipperwash, 407, Chris Stockwell, etc. Some will hang on because they've always voted PC. And Manners may surprise us all. Don't be fooled into thinking he's got teacher support though...he's not a star with a lot of them, however, he performs exceptionally well in debates, etc. and that is making an impression. Jason has a very strong team and an impressive, albiet short, professional background. So, surmise as we will, calling this one is no more than wishful thinking on the part of desperate party supporters.
	25/09/03	LC Email:
"Hot Shot": A little immature on the comment to Sharon, don't you think? "Learn about grown up politics....?" Seems to me many people forget (or never learn) the lessons of political history. Remember a fellow by the name of David Peterson? He owned the London riding in which he ran ... also happened to be the Premier of the Province. In 1989, he lost his riding by a landslide ... 16 000 votes if I remember right. It seems to me that the same could happen in this riding. After all, the incumbent is not running, there is a provincial sentiment that change is necessary, and although Laurie Scott has done good work locally, she just does not appear to be a very knowledgeable candidate. She's bowed out of too many local candidates' races. The riding is strongly PC, but I think that this one is going to be close. The PCs may win, but not by a considerable number of votes. Then again, so may the Liberals.
	23/09/03	Mr. Plow Email:
In this riding people tend to vote for the local candidate above the political parties. This gives two of the candidates an advantage. Earl Manners is a candidate with a province-wide name that everyone knows through his work with the teacher's union. There seem to be a lot of teachers out working for Earl in this election and their campaign seems to be spending a large sum on advertising and brochures. Laurie Scott is also a household name here because of the family name and her good showing during the federal election of 2000 when Scott was the federal Conservative candidate. The Conservatives seem to have lots of volunteers and as usual, lots of money to spend. I think this leaves the Liberals in a tough position. Jason Ward is not known like the other two candidates and the Liberal campaign is suffering for it. This is a very large riding and it takes a lot of campaign workers and money to cover all of it. So with all of this in mind, I think Laurie Scott will defeat Earl Manners. Jason Ward will have to settle for third place.
	22/09/03	The Senator Email:
Despite the apparent Liberal Sweep that is about to take place across this province, this is a riding that one would normally characterize as "safe" for the Tories. However I expect Jason Ward to narrowly take this one. There are a number of factors: 1. The provincial trend toward a Liberal majority; 2. Jason's strong organization (He had reportedly knocked on over 20,000 doors prior to the writ); 3. Jason's strong performance in public debate (His lawyer background serves him well); 4. Laurie's incredibly weak performances in debate (I have watched her in 4 debates so far and she seems overwhelmed to say the least) 5. Laurie's surprisingly weak organization and her unwillingness to attend debates (when she does go, she has no one there for support). 6. Appearance of Liberal election signs on front lawns in the Village of Woodville (This has never happened before). These reasons lead me to believe that Jason will win. Liberals I speak with are brimming with confidence, the less biased but experienced observers with whom I regularly speak are cautiously predicting Jason to win, and my tory friends are reluctant to even predict. This all points to Jason winning what will be a close race. Earl Manners' supporters for the most part seem to be out of riding unionists and with a provincial popularity of 12-14%, there is no way that Earl will even factor into this one. Colour Haliburton-Victoria-Brock Liberal Red!
	22/09/03	M.S. from Durham Email:
I'd like to know why Tory from Dixieland (or is that Dreamland) feels this riding has strong conservative roots. It has gone liberal Federally since 1993, NDP provincially in 1990 and was a Liberal seat provincially for several terms before that. Since 95 it has had a high profile Cabinet minister and large central coat tails -both are now gone. The issue of Amalgamation of the city of Kwartha Lakes will also work strongly against the Tories - real anger from the Rural areas. I don't see Scott finishing in the top 2 in this race, regardless of who her father was. I see it as NDP/Liberal race - Manners' name recognition versus the Liberal central campaign strenth. It will be close, but I think Manners can win it.
	22/09/03	Hot Shot Email:
Poor Sharon has a lot to learn about grown up politics. The Tories won this seat by 18,000 votes in 1999 and with the Tories and Liberals only seperated by 5 points in today's Ipsos-Reid poll, a riding like this is never going to change hands. If the Liberals were ahead by 20 points, I say they had a chance but this is going to be a close election so this riding is not in play.
	20/09/03	Sharon Email:
This is my second submission, as when I did the first one (5 minutes ago) I did not realize I had to justify/explain my submission here. So disregard the first. I teach political science to senior high school students and am organizing for Kids Voting Canada. We have had an all-candidates event which was televised and many other events. I think that while Laurie Scott does have a family background in this area (her father was a previous M.P.P.) and many supporters, her performance at all-candidates meetings has been very weak. She has refused to participate in the majority of these events, stating that they have to be selective about what they do during the writ period. There seems to be a large portion of the population, Particularly the young voter, who desperately want change. The problem????Earl Manners presents himself VERY WELL, and has garnered substantial support. I fear that Earl may take votes away from Liberal candidate Jason Ward, thereby allowing Laurie to come up the middle and actually get in.....Overall, however, I still believe that Jason has the best chance.
	17/09/03	Frozen Toast Email:
According to this week's Ipsos-Reid poll, the NDP are running at 3% in eastern Ontario. I'll repeat, the NDP are running at 3%. Time for the NDP posters on this site to wake up and smell the coffee. Earl Manners is no threat to do anything but beat the Green Party candidate for third place. This riding will be won by Laurie Scott because the spread going into this election was too big for the Liberals to catch. End of story.
	16/09/03	David Wallbridge Email:
This will be a breakthrough victory for the NDP. They have a star candidate who has great name recognition in the riding and in the province. The party is putting resources into the riding plus a recent visit by the leader. All of this plus two lesser known candidates means a suprise victory for the NDP. It will be a tight three way race but the 'soft' vote will go NDP thus leading to a narrow victory.
	12/09/03	GK
WHAT! This riding isn't called yet. 1) Laurie Scott almost won it federally. 2) This is Leslie Frost's old riding. 3) The Liberals would have to pick up a third of the old Tory vote and that is if Ryan does not pick up anything which he certainly will 4) 34% margin of victory to loss=NOT HAPPENING
	11/09/03	Fiddle Head Email:
I think Laurie Scott made a name for herself running in the federal election back in 2000. She got her name out there and people are familiar with it. Everybody knows who Earl Manners is and they aren't going to vote for him. I know nothing about Jason Ward or what he's done in the community. People here like the familiar and they know Laurie Scott. That's all it will take for her to win by 6000 votes over Ward.
	06/09/03	Tory in Dixie Email: ericbucholz@hotmail.com
Take this one out of the undecided column !! This is Leslie Frost's old riding. Sure, there have been Liberal and NDP victories since then, but any objective analysis of voting trends show that the conservative roots in this riding run deep. The Tory base is simply too great, and with the added security of Earl Manners running for the NDP, McGuinty should focus on other targets if he expects to win.
	/09/03	M.S. Email:
There is a reason that a high profile cabinet minister Hodgson is getting out and its not just that he wants to return to the private sector - he wants to get out before the voters do it for him. I think the issue of amalgamation will leave this riding a wreck for the Tories and the name recognition of Manners will carry him here.
	09/08/03	Paint My Fence Email:
When they talk about how vote splits were the story of the 2003 campaign, the experts will point to this riding as the perfect example. All the Tories need to do is let Earl and Jason battle it out for the opposition vote. Laurie Scott is not a star candidate but she comes from Tory stock and will hold the substantial Tory vote. That will be more than enough to elect Scott.
	07/08/03	Craig Email:
Still too early to call. Several scenarios remain: 1) Will vote-splitting be Laurie Scott's best friend, or have they fallen so far that it is not a real issue, or will the opposition vote converge with one candidate? She is not a very strong candidate, but this riding has a Conservative history. 2) It seems that the Liberal and NDP camps both think they can win this. Naturally it would appear the Liberals would take the protest vote, but the NDP have a really strong candidate, so that might be popular with families here. There is no real union base here so the NDP need to aim for the 'ordinary' non-union families, on the education issue, to have any chance. They cannot split the vote, unless the Tories have indeed fallen very far. 3) I was in the riding a week ago and I noticed there was a campaign to de-amalgamate. Will that play a role? I think the Tories will not really get much out of this and take it for granted. The Liberals and NDP will not try to unite their vote but the Tory fall will be enough to make it a three-way. Still could change... Current prediction (but cannot call race since they are within the margin of error): Scott 35%, Manners 33%, Ward 30%, Smith 2%.
	01/08/03	Road Rage Email:
The Liberals saying they're going to win Haliburton-Victoria-Brock is as ridiculous as if the Tories claimed they would win Ottawa Vanier. There are ridings in this province that the Liberals, Tories and to a lesser extent the NDP own. The Tories will not defeat the Liberals in Ottawa Vanier and the Liberals will not beat the Tories in Haliburton-Victoria-Brock. Having an experienced and well known candidate like Laurie Scott just makes it even easier for the Tories.
	30/07/03	Spin Buster Email:
There is probably more Liberal spin in this riding than any other on this site. Let's step back and take a hard look at this riding. Earl Manners in a provincial political figure after his years as the president of the OSSTF. Laurie Scott is the daughter of a former MP and got over 14,000 votes in the last federal election even though she had to fight it out with a strong Alliance candidate for the right wing vote. How right wing is this riding. In 2000, federal Liberal member John O'Reilly only won the seat by 1100 votes even as his party was sweeping to a huge majority. O'Reilly got 16,000 votes while the Alliance and Tory votes add up to 29,000 votes, again, with the liberals winning big. So you have a well known NDP candidate with resources from all over the province. A well know federal candidate who came with in a couple thousand votes of knocking off a federal Liberal in a Grit sweep. Then there's Jason Ward who nobody knows and has never run for anything. Ward's campaign team can flood this sight with e-mails saying he's going to win but that is nothing but desperate spin from the provincial Liberals as they slide in the polls. Laurie Scott is going to win this riding because it's a solid right wing riding. Case closed.
	29/07/03	Blue Blood Email:
Gumby is quite right about this riding being a three way race. The Liberals are falling in the polls while the NDP and the Tories are on an up swing. This makes for a three way race in a riding like this. A three way race is just what the Tories need to hold on to hold on here. Ward and Manners will be fighting it out for the left vote while Laurie Scott solidifies the right wing vote and gets enough to win.
	25/07/03	Gumby Email:
Something tells me there are some Tories out there who feel a little threatened by the Ward and Manners fight. You know, it is possible to have a close three-way race. Scott lost federally last time by a narrow margin. This election could be anyone's. Given that most people seem to view the voters here as Conservative leaning, I bet Ward will steal more of Scott's votes than Manners will steal of Ward's, leaving Ward to climb out on top. The Managed Forest issue is bubbling up in Haliburton (10,000 voters). The NDP first cancelled the program in the early 90s; the Tories cancelled it recently; people are very upset: it could be the way Ward steals Haliburton County, in which case he's unbeatable in the Riding as a whole. Brock is a swing area..
	22/07/03	Spindoctor Barbie Email: barbie@matel-toys.com
The NDP are running at 17% in the polls right now. I project that whatever the NDP are running at overall, Earl Manners will end up 10 points higher in this riding because he is a star candidate. So, if the NDP end up with 18% of the vote, Manners will get 28% of the vote in this riding. Manners is going to make it possible for Laurie Scott to keep this riding in the Conservative side of the ledger with Jason Ward of the Liberals coming second. I will say that if Hampton has a good campaign and the NDP get into the low 20's province wide, Manners will pass Ward and end up second. Either way, Laurie Scott wins and the Ward people can keep flooding this site all they want and it won't make any difference. Laurie Scott wins it.
	18/07/03	Paint My Fence Email:
There is no issue in this riding that is big enough to turn a 18,000 vote victory by the Tories last time into a win for the Liberals in 2003. I see Jason Ward closing the gap with Laurie Scott but not enough to win the seat. Scott will take it by 5000 votes.
	18/07/03	Kippers For Breakfast Email:
The Liberals can spin themselves silling trying to believe that Earl Manners isn't going to cost them the riding but it just won't wash. No matter what the Ward camp says, Earl Manners has a full bank account to run his campaign and will have hundreds of union people bussing into the area to help him. I think there's a distinct possibility that Manners could finish second here. Jason Ward is not much of a candidate while Laurie Scott has deep roots in this riding and much more in the way of connections to key people. Spin all you want but Laurie Scott is your next MPP.
	18/07/03	Lizard Email:
Jason Ward's supporters should stop filling this site up with nonsense and get knocking on doors. Nobody knows who your candidate is. This riding was the birthplace of the Commonsense Revolution because people here like tax cuts and don't like the government wasting our hard earned tax dollars. That's why the Tories win so big here. Times haven't changed that much and Laurie Scott is going to win. By the way, Laurie Scott is an intellegent person who is very well thought of in the community no matter how the Liberals want to throw mud at her.
	17/07/03	mary.dangelo Email:
The real question in this Riding is why would Laurie Scott switch gears from federal to provincial? She's worked hard federally. She had a shot federally. She doesn't really know much about the provincial scene - and it's showing clearly. I bet she's kicking herself. The provincial race is very different from the federal. Unlike federally, she's up against a very strong Liberal candidate and a Liberal Party that is miles ahead in the polls with a platform that, although not as sexy, has much appeal as a back to basics approach. She can't return to the federal scene anymore, at least not without losing a lot of respect. It's a mystery. In any case, Ward has earned a reputation as a bright, hardworking candidate, which will serve him well. If everything stays the same, he'll pick up this Riding. I think the NDP have already realized they won't win here. At least it seems that way by the lack of effort on their part over the last month. Vote splitting is not an issue (much like it won't be federally either). Voters are too smart and want the Tories out too badly to allow them to slip through the cracks on a split. NDPers won't let this happen. Sorry to those who are grasping below, but this Riding will likely be Ward all the way.
	17/07/03	teach Email:
Jason Ward has the endorsement of the local elementary teachers and support from the provincial executive. Don't expect to see teachers flocking to mManners just because he was head of OSSTF. There are many secondary teachers working for Ward as well. Ward has been working hard and receives many waves from citizens wherever he now appears.
	16/07/03	Refreshed Email:
It's so refreshing to read Tories' frantically trying to defend their Party and their candidate, both of which leave much to be desired. Let's face it, the Tory machine in this Riding and the candidate fall short of the mark. I question whether Chris Hodgson is truly supporting Laurie Scott - unlike in the past, there is virtually no presence by the Tories up to now, unlike both the Liberals and the NDP. One thing is certain: this Riding is about to change colour despite the propaganda below. Ask around; you'll soon find out - even some of the diehard Tories have publicly stated they're supporting the newcomer Ward. And for good reason, in my opinion, apart from what the Liberals are promising provincially if elected. Whatever may be written below, there will be a change here. Voters will not allow a vote split to allow the Tories to sneak through the cracks. NDPers will strategically vote with a common, univeral purpose; get rid of the current government at any cost, including electing a Liberal candidate. Sorry, Hop on Pop and others, you're messages lack both substance and credibility.
	16/07/03	Happy Camper Email:
I've always believed the truth is always somewhere in the middle and this is a good case. Jason Ward is a solid candidate but he's not as great as the some here have described him. Laurie Scott is also not as bad a candidate as some have said she is. Neither one in any way could be described as a star candidate. This means their party ties will be the determining factor. This is why Laurie Scott is going to win out. The Tory brand is still much more popular in this particular riding.
	12/07/03	Hop on Pop Email:
The last message posted from Don't Know does make it clear that whoever this person is,they don't know anything about this riding. To say that having Earl Manners in this race helps Jason Ward makes no sense at all. Earl is going to increase the amount of suppor the NDP will get in the riding and that vote is not going to come from the Tories. It's going to come from the Liberals. I also think people have not considered just how conservative this riding is. Laurie Scott is not Chris Hodgson, but there are thousands of voters here who will vote for her just because they are conservatives. Jason Ward is not going to win this race.
	10/07/03	Wannabet Email:
Contrary to previous comments,the local PC's are more than happy with their candidate. She's very well versed on the issues that matter up here, namely the economy, tax credits & rural concerns. Scott is already well apprised in constituency matters, which will ensure a smooth transition this fall. Laurie will not garner the Hodgson plurality, but she will win comfortably.
	08/07/03	Don't know Email:
I'm not surprised the Tory supporters below overwhelmingly state that if the NDP Party had run their usual, run-of-the-mill candidate, that Ward would have trounced Laurie Scott. No doubt about it, Ward is a very strong candidate who could likely go far in politics. But I'm not sure: people remember the fiasco under Hampton and Rae last time, and the NDP candidate is making the same recycled promises, as was clearly evident at a recent debate on poverty. My guess is that the NDP will steal some of Jason Ward's thunder, but not nearly enough to allow Laurie Scott to capitalize on being a weak candidate in a fledging Party. Ward should take this Riding because Manners is running, not the other way around. I also agree with the comment below that those who write in supporting the Conservatives seem to say nothing about the calibre or potential of their candidate - silence speaks volumes.
	04/07/03	Pound Puppy Email:
From what dd says in the last e-mail, it looks like Earl Manners has really made an enemy. I guess it happens to everyone. This is a Tory riding now and it will still be a Tory riding after the election. Laurie Scott will be following in Chris Hodgson's footsteps and going to Queen's Park. For those who care about who comes second and third it will be Ward in second and poor Earl in third.
	03/07/03	Nomad Email:
There may be some teachers who don't like Earl Manners but most of them will be working for the guy during the election along with other union members. That will be more than enough for Earl to capture enough of the vote to stop Jason Ward from beating Laurie Scott. The day Earl announced he was running in this riding, it meant the Tories would win it again.
	01/07/03	dd Email:
I'm not sure why anyone thinks that Earl Manners will garner teacher votes in this riding. Many of us were frustrated with Earl's performance in OSSTF. In the mext Provincial election we will vote for the person who has leadership, who is informed, who is not detached, and who is not too arrogant to LISTEN. Being able to spin a good yarn while in the public eye is not the "quality" we are looking for in our next candidate. Also: some of us (the ones who know) are very angry with the local OSSTF. They have secretly decided to support Manners with our funds and without a concensus from the members. The writers below who have assumed that having Manners as the NDP candidate will gain votes from teachers are out of the loop. His past performance and his attitude have persuaded many of us that he is no leader.
	27/06/03	Ringleader Sally Email:
I know the Liberals are pretty wound up about winning this riding but I have serious doubts. For the Liberals to break through in rural Ontario they need to give small town voters a reason to vote for them. Looking at the Liberal platform, it's very clear they're not targetting ridings like this one. McGuinty's platform is aimed at getting votes in the urban regions of Ontario. Without a good reason to vote Liberal, people here will tend to stick with the Conservative party. As others have said earlier, having Earl Manners run in this riding made a tough job even tougher because he will get a lot more votes than any other NDP candidate would pick up. That's why this riding is going to remain blue.
	24/06/03	S.S. Email:
Are these people serious? Hodgson's Team? What Team? The PC organization is no longer a serious threat. They are disillusioned by a jumpship incumbent, a last minute weak candidate, and a party that seems to be self-imploding. I truly hope no PC supporter in this Riding is counting on Eves or the Party to win this election - it simply won't happen. Hodgson has many skeletons in the closet, as well as those currently on the burner (or in Court, as the case may be), such as ORC scandals, Ipperwash, etc. Who knows what else may be out there. In any event, he's no longer Mr. Popular here. People are upset with his leadership and especially the fact he's quitting for a job that will pay him more money. It's the end of a so-called era. The NDP candidate is garnering some attention. He's the former head of a large teachers' union - go figure he'd spin a good yarn. The suprise has been the Liberal candidate who's translating his Court Room savvy into the political sphere, quite well, I understand. I doubt my Riding will go NDP again - and I doubt even more that Laurie Scott will suddenly re-emerge as a candidate who actually knows anything about Provincial politics and who can express a simply view. The sure thing is Ward to win.
	19/06/03	T.a. Email: t.a.wilson@attcan.net
Despite the PC diehards below attempting to cling to a weak candidate, it appears this Riding will turn Liberal. Ward seems to be widely perceived as a person who has turned around a fledging Liberal presence by lighting a fire under some ol' school Liberals as well as bringing in a lot of new ones. Rumours have it that Ward raised a substantial amount of money from his Toronto connections to run in this Riding. He seems well backed by the Party. All the ingredients for a good upset. It is interesting to note that all the PC entries below include no truly supportive remarks about the PC candidate - only that the Party will succeed provincially and that this Riding is a "Tory stronghold" from way back. Truth is, the Riding is a swing Riding. The NDP won here when Bob Rae got in (although the NDP MPP quit half way through his term and ran independently because he was so disillusioned with the Rae/NDP government). It may be an entertaining race, but from what I understand from my people in the Riding, its a foregone conclusion that Ward will come out on top.
	21/06/03	My Little Pony Email:
Laurie Scott is not doing as badly as other people claim. She's been attending a lot of events in the riding and has put together a very good team. Nobody seems to mention that the very popular Chris Hodgson has been openly supporting Scott and has put his entire team behind her. Hodgson's reputation is on the line. He and his team will make sure Laurie Scott holds this riding.
	07/06/03	Sloppy Joe Email:
I can see that lots of people think Jason Ward is going to win this riding without much trouble. I think they are forgetting that if Earl Manners gets over twenty per cent of the vote, it's going to be very difficult for ward to beat Laurie Scott. With all the help Manners is getting from teachers all over the province, it's very likely he will get over twenty per cent of the vote and this will split the opposition to the Tories and let them come up the middle.
	29/05/03	Debate Comment Email:
If one were to judge the outcome of this race based on the first debate, the race is clearly between Jason Ward and Earl Manners. I almost felt sympathy for the Tory candidate - there were a surprising number of "I'll look into that"s and "Thank you for that information"s. The Tories better get on board, because they are seriously threatended in this Riding. As far as Ward and Manners, there ideas shared some commonality, as would be expected. Therefore, the victor was the borne out of the delivery. Manners has had decades of public speaking experience, and lived up to his expectations of being a strong presence. However, surprisingly, Ward was better. I can't imaging he has much public speaking experience at all (as the youngest candidate), but he shocked everyone, I think, as having a seriously commanding and very strong presence. He was funny, sincere and not too hard to look at. Here is the problem: Maners is not Ward's competition; Ward must steal soft 'c' Tory votes to win this election, while keeping leftist Liberals on side. I think he accomplished both at the first debate. If I was either Scott or Manners, I'd be adjusting my strategy. Manners will likely attack Ward in the future, but that may be unwise since he will need to count on stealing some Tory votes to win. Laurie Scott will need to keep the hardline Tories, which means she should also attack Ward. It will be interesting to see how the opponents react to the debate outcome. If Ward becomes the target, that's exactly what he wants, having been a virtual no-name outside of Lindsay not more than 3 months ago. So, it's decision time. What will Scott and Manners do? I predict both are much more concerned now than before the debate began. One this is for certain, I hope Manners did not expect to walk into this Riding and step all over the other candidates. Ward gave him a nice shot during the campaign to let him know that he's no longer a big fish in a small pond. This isn't school; it's provincial politics. The candidates are now taking off their gloves. This is when it will get exciting.
	28/05/03	Scoop Jackson Email:
My Tory contacts tell me that Laurie Scott has been a big disappointment for them. Scott believes her family name is enough to win the seat. She and her campaign team have done nothing. On the other side of the coin, Jason Ward has been a pleasant surprise according to my Liberal contacts. Ward has worked hard and has a very good campaign team. Meanwhile, my NDP contacts have gone from being optimistic about Earl Manners to not wanting to talk about this riding any more. Jason Ward still has to deal with the vote splitting that Earl could cause but right now he looks like that won't be a problem. This once rock solid Tory riding looks like a Liberal pickup.
	25/05/03	EJ Email:
I just met Jason Ward the other day. Though he seems awfully young, he definitely has some charisma and charm, a real lady killer. Based upon his looks, he is going to capture the "eye candy" vote in this riding. The fact that he oozes success from every pore will also help. By all accounts he has a good team working for him. I would like him to come out in support of deamalgamation, however. He told me that he would only commit to supporting the referendum - I would like him to take a side. With him as the deamalgamation poster boy we would surely win. Contrary to popular belief, this will be a two horse race. No one around here is impressed by Mr Manners and Laurie Scott's campaign seems badly stalled. Jason will beat Laurie by a neck and Earl will fail to get out of the starter gate.
	24/05/03	mk Email:
Looking at the last weeks submissions there are a couple of things of interest. What momentum is Crystal Ball thinking of. Was that before or after O'Toole flipped the bird in the house during a contempt debate no less? This riding does have a lot of small c-conservatives who have a great respect for the traditions in this province and that performance in the house was the last straw. The only momentum for the Tories that I see is down hill and the speed is picking up fast. Their key wedge issue- mortgage interest tax deductions are a joke. We are talking about $100 a year starting in 2005 (that's $8 a month) You don't get the $500 a year until 2010 (which means we'd have to elect these jokers again!!). The only way the Tories could make their idea even somewhat affordable for the province was to make it not worth much to us mortgage holders at all. Crystal Ball is right saying that Earl won't be a factor. The Dennis Drainville experience was not a good one for HVB and the NDP is not going to form a majority government as they did when Drainville won. Two things that Earl won't be able to control (regardless of how large his ego is). I've heard that story about the job after the election with OSSTF also- which must make it a fact. I've also heard that OSSTF is where all of his funding and volunteer support is coming from as well. Certainly it isn't the actual teachers themselves. Grizz has it right by saying that the folks in CKL won't forget the Tories put them in this amalgamation mess and now aren't helping to get them out. o maybe I'm being bright eyed and bushy tailed (but after 30 years of watching elections in these here boondocks, swatting them black flys and 'squitters- I don't think so) and this looks like a trend to the Liberals as the only viable alternative. Also, please no more province-wide analysis about the 60% of the votes that Hodgson got last time. If some analysis of the facts (relative strengths of the candidates, amount of effort being put forward by the campaigns, public perception of the parties, issues caused by the government in this riding etc.)is done, you will see that this is a completely different ball game from 1999. It'll be tight but Ward is working the hardest and that is what HVB wants from its MPP.
	24/05/03	El Predicto Email:
Let's get one thing straight. Earl Manners is going to finish third here. The NDP just aren't going anywhere in this election and that makes winning this riding out of the question. This race is between the Liberals and the Tories. What Earl Manners will do is get enough of the vote to give the Tories this riding on a vote split. Laurie Scott has a well know name in the riding and will be their next member of the Ontario legislature.
	23/05/03	Craig Email:
The most confusing race in Ontario, as each party has a plank to work with, but not the complete package. The polls will be critical here - by the way, National Post polls are always going to be anti-NDP since it is a very right-wing newspaper (they are really polling in the 15-19 percent range). This has always been a Tory stronghold, but amalgamation and a weak candidate will pull them down. The NDP has the strongest candidate but there is no real union base here to help him, so he needs to gain a lot of support from normal non-union families. The Liberal candidate was the strongest opponent of the three in the amalgamtion debates, and that will help him out, in addition to strong poll results. This won't be decided until election night and minor parties may play a role in tipping the balance! Predicted results: LIB 31%, PC 30%, NDP 30%, Green 6%. Way too close to call though and it will certainly be a three-way race decided in the debates and in the polls.
	23/05/03	Crystal Ball Email:
I never believed that Earl Manners was a serious challenger to win Haliburton-Victoria-Brock. Looking at the National Post today and seeing the NDP a terrible third with only 11 per cent of support, it's impossible to imagine Earl even being in this race. The Tories seem to have some momentum and I would think that means Laurie Scott will finish the winner here with Jason Ward coming second. I hope the stories about Earl having a job at with the teachers union after the election are true. I think he'll need it.
	21/05/03	Grizz Email:
I'm going to have to agree pretty much with what A.S. has to say, however I'm going to contradict him/her and call for a very guarded Liberal victory. Amalgamation issues have really honked people off and often leads to the party responsible being canned. Amalgamation was a key factor in Liberal vistories all across Quebec reciently where former PQ strongholds (Jonquiere, Marguerite-D'Youville, and almost all of Quebec City) fell one by one. I see this going Liberal..but not by much.
	20/05/03	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
(1) Brantford: PC single digit % in 1990, PC win in 1995. (2) Etobicoke-Rexdale: NDP's Ed Philip got 2/3 of the vote in 1990, lost in 1995. As to HVB post-Hodgson, I'll maintain a very guarded PC prediction--partly because the wall of Liberal predictions I'm reading is a little too bright-eyed bushy-tailed for its own good (and Earl Manners is but a brave long-shot--though as the Dennis Drainville landslide proved in 1990, there can be lucky left-populist mileage in these black-fly boondocks), but also because Laurie Scott (daughter of legendary former MP Bill Scott), who put on a folklorically good show for the hapless Joe Clark PC's in 2000, really is the best the Tories could have offered, and I'm not sneering. If she doesn't make it, it's the same story as in 2000--blame the party, not the candidate. If that's the case, I guess, then watch her brush herself off for the inevitability of joining Gary Schellenberger in Ottawa in 2004...
	20/05/03	Scoop Jackson Email:
In response to the person questioning the information I posted. I always get two sources for all my stories. In this case both a local OSSTF president and a high ranking official at their headquarters told me that the top administrative job in the union was being held for Earl as soon as the election was over. You'll see Earl taking this job sometime before Labour Day because he knows he can't win this seat.
	15/05/03	Number Chruncher Email:
The NDP received only 7 per cent of the vote in Haliburton-Victoria-Brock in the 1999 election. Looking at the last four general elections in Ontario, there was not one case of a party receiving a single digit percentage of the vote and then coming back to win the seat in the next election. I was also unable to find a single case of a party getting over 60 per cent of the vote in one election and then losing the same seat in the next campaign. Add to this the likely increase in the Liberal vote in this riding, due to the province wide trends and all the numbers indicate that this riding will see a Tory victory.
	15/05/03	PC Email:
A bird tells me that Earl Manners was hoping that Dalton McGuinty would name him as the Liberal candidate in Haliburton Victoria Brock. When he refused, Manners went to Gerard Kennedy to plead his case. Kennedy told him there was nothing he could do. Knowing that he could not beat the coalition that was formed between Ward & Christie, Manner's was forced to re think his strategy. Manners is now left with OSSTF as his only supporting network. With Manners out in the cold and Laurie Scott, who has not even started to campaign yet, Ward will be unstoppable. Edited upon request for correction.
	12/05/03	Skeptical of Scoops Email:
I have to say that I'm highly skeptical of submissions of fact made by contributors like Scoop Jackson, which are supposed "insider information" and are not attributed to any substantive source. In fact, Scoops' claim flies in the face of both fact and reason. Reason it for yourself. A seasoned political figure, like Earl Manners, runs to win! I'm not sure a guy like Manners knows how to do anything else but run to win. As for facts, just look at Manners' action. He has been campaigning hard in the riding since his nomination. A look at the local newspapers shows how much he's been doing. This is a candidate who is out, in his communities, talking to the voters. You don't do that kind of work if you don't want to win. I'd say thanks to Scoop for the conspiracy theories, but I can see better ones on the X-files any day of the week. For me, I see a change coming in this riding. There are tons of issues - like amalgamation - that are having an effect on this riding. The NDP clearly has the highest profile candidate and this is a riding that likes its representation strong, with clearly articulated opinions. Like him or not, Manners fits the bill and would be the kind of politician who could get things done for his constituents. I say we see a shift here to Manners and the NDP.
	12/05/03	politicalgirl_90 @hotmail.com Email:
Earl Manners has been actively campaigning in the riding. He's been speaking to lots of folks and appears to be very serious about winning this riding.
	09/05/03	Roger Email: rmacmillanco@cogeco.ca
Both Ward and Manners will double their poll numbers from the last election. That will leave Ward with about 30% and Manners with about 8% (relative to the '99 election). They will both steal votes from the Conservative voters, who are not too pleased with the current government. Many staunch Tories will vote for Ward (Manners is simply too much NDP) in protest. Ward is doing a good job of promoting his blue side to attract disenfranshised Tory supporters. Instead of playing up the local yocal strategy, as was originally thought, Ward is staying true to form by letting voters know he seems to be as concerned with balanced budgets as he is with anything else - that will work to capture the Tory vote here, especially in Haliburton County. It'll be a great race. I hope the Tory candidate gets rolling soon to make it even better.
	08/05/03	Scoop Jackson Email:
I'm told one of the worst kept secrets within the OSSTF is that Earl Manners and the union are so sure that he won't be elected in this riding that both sides already set up the top administrative job at the OSSTF for Manners. If the NDP candidate himself doesn't believe he'll win then this race comes down to the Liberals and the Tories. My Liberal contacts tell me that they see Jason Ward as a long shot at best. My Tory contacts tell me that although they are not polling at over 60 per cent in the riding like they were when Hodgson was running, they do still have a healthy lead. It's no surprise that the Tories tell me they are counting on Manners and Ward splitting the vote and helping Scott to victory.
	06/05/03	Harriet Email:
HVB could be the provincial prototype! Liberal candidate Jason Ward will win but it will be close. Long term Conservatives will fail to acknowledge the detrimental infrastructure changes initiated by the PCs since 1995 and "vote by rote" for Laurie Scott. The NDP will benefit from the high profile of candidate Earl Manners. However, neither the PCs nor the NDP will win more votes than Liberal Jason Ward.
	06/05/03	robert e Email:
You have to be kiding me. Not taking a stance on amalgamation is the correct decision here? What kind of leadership is that! Typical Liberal - sitting on the fence. The Liberals are the same in the Hamilton area on the much unwanted amalgamation issue. When they speak to the suburbs, they are all for having a vote in the future, but when in the old city, their stance changes. Earl Manners has made the correct decision here - and that is taking a stand!
	04/05/03	Pete Email:
For the first time in over 10 years there is a finally a race for the MPP seat in this Riding. Ward came out strong, and now the other candidates are being forced to do some ol' style campaigning. It's a very big riding - the kind that will wear out a couple of pairs of shoes. Historically, it's been a swing riding, but voters are so dissatisfied with politicians and government these days, they are looking at the individual candidates. This is when a young, aggressive, family man candidate can gain some ground. Ward is playing this very well. His ads use phrases like "Local boy making good" and "Family man". Voters wants a principled representative whom they can trust and who exudes confidence and determination - whether or not he is making the best decision. I'm a Liberal supporter in another riding, but there is much buzz about Ward and the possibility that he will move quickly up the ladder within the Party when/if he wins - especially if Dalton McGuinty does not win. Ward was recently asked to speak at Wayne Arthur's nomination (Whitby) to a crowd of more than 2000 Liberals amongst candidates/MPPs from across Ontario. I saw him for the first time and was very impressed. I know Laurie Scott - she's definitely got her hands full with this new Liberal face. If he's anything like he made himself appear in Whitbly, surely he's a sure win in VHB. I'll also be watching him closely after the election - I suspect he may move upward very quickly. Best of luck to all the candidates.
	02/05/03	L Email:
Jason Ward will win. Jason's support of the referendum in the city of Kawartha Lakes has been unwavering. He has not chosen a side in this referendum and this has been the correct decision. By not doing so, Jason makes it clear that the democratic will of the people, not the will of the MPP, will decide the future structure of the City of Kawartha Lakes/Victoria County. Manners has lost the vote of all of those people that are supporters of the present city structure by choosing to support the Yes camp. Laurie Scott has not come out in favour of the restructuring vote and her party seems ready to back track on the referendum that Chris Hodgson promised.
	29/04/03	Josh Taylor Email:
Very simply, the winner in this Riding, which has now become one of the spotlights of Ontario, will be the candidate who works the hardest to win. It seems only one candidate so far has figured that out. The others need to quickly realize they cannot win on name alone in HVB - this is the history of the Riding; they vote for the person, not the Party. I live in a very remote part of the Riding. Yesterday Jason Ward knocked on my door. No MPP candidate has ever done that before. For that, he's earned my vote. I suspect many others are thinking the same thing, especially those who are disillusioned by both Eves and McGuinty.
	17/04/03	Osprey Email:
My sharp eye and a voracious reader of the local scene leads me to conclude that Jason Ward will prevail...He is well organized..he listens well and does not make snap judgment calls..He has made a special effort to learn about our concerns and needs..he goes door to door..and has a team backing him from youth to seniors...
	17/04/03	A voter Email:
It's great to see a good race for a change in VHB. There is definately a mood for change amongst the voters. Earl Manners has the public profile and ability to articulate that for people. As for Jason, I think he is trying hard to not let on who his party leader is. The name and face recognition that Earl Manners has with the public will pay off. He's a real fighter for everyone and that's what people feel they really need now. Manners will be head and shoulders above Scott and Ward in all-candidate meetings. The longer the pre-election period, the more people will look at him as the strongest of the three.
	16/04/03	G Email: gavin1@hotmail.com
Jason Ward will win. I have been reading all of the local papers and have not seen a thing from L. Scott or E. Manners. L. Scott describes herself as a "Front Line Healthcare Worker" but she has not spent a full year working as a full time nurse in Ontario since 1997. Earl Manners describes himself as an educator despite the fact that he has not worked as a full time teacher since 1988! When the truth comes out about these two, Ward will win on credibility alone.
	15/04/03	Scotty Email:
April 5 EKOS poll results. Liberals 53, Tories 34, NDP 11. The NDP are finished and that means Earl Manners is finished too. That means Laurie Scott will be the new MPP.
	08/04/03	James Murphy Email: jamesrsmurphy@hotmail.com
This is a PC stronghold. The CA and PCPC got close to 2/3 of the federal votes in 2000. Laurie Scott has strong roots in the riding and is well liked. Earl Mannors will split the left wing vote
	07/04/03	M. Swan Email:
This race will be close. Ward will likely win Lindsay, but his success will depend on splitting the vote in the northern part of the Riding, on which the Tories have traditionally relied in the past. Brock Township will swing with the Provincial result. It will be a footrace: the winner will be whichever of the two relatively unkowns knocks on the most doors.
	06/03/03	Stephen Woof Email: stephen.woof@sympatico.ca
I think the Liberal candidate Jason Ward will sweep this riding. Laurie Scott is riding on her Daddy's coat tails and really doesn't have what it takes to be a respected leader in this area. The NDP are going to have a hard time because they are seen to have squndered the chance they where given before with Bob Rae. The Liberals are going to win the province and this riding. Jason Ward is a very determined young man with a good head on his shoulders and great people skills.
	06/03/03	PredictoMan Email:
Ward should win because: (1) faithful Tories are disillusioned by Hodgson's mismanagement of the municipal demerger in the area; (2) Tory candidate Scott is perceived as opportunistic for jumping from the federal to the provincial track; (3) there is no NDP support in this Riding; (4) Liberal candidate Ward is a local commodity, born and bred, with well-respected and well-known family in the area; (4) Ward has captured health care privatizion as the main issue; (5) the local PC organization has split over Scott creating dissention in the ranks; (6) Lindsay is key to a win - Ward grew up there. This Riding will be one of the most-watched upsets in Ontario. I'm rarely wrong when it comes to underdog upsets. Watch and see.
	04/04/03	? Email:
I'm no member of any campaign team, but I do think Jason Ward is going to sweep this Riding. He basically came out of nowhere, but seems to have wedged himself very nicely among the press and the people of the north part of this Riding.
	03/04/03	Same Answer Email: Already submitted
To Robert E. below. Read your local newspapers. The teachers have announced they are publicly supporting the Liberal candidate. There is no way this Riding will go NDP - especially in light of the candidate. I'll eat my hat if I am wrong on this. This Riding is Ward's to lose. Editor Note: Please indicate which teacher's union has endorsed Ward. We are not incline to believe such is the case without source.
	03/04/03	Don't care Email: redrover38@yahoo.com
Ward will win. Manners will steal very few Liberal votes. Scott can't fill Hodgson's shoes. Voters are questioning their Tory allegiance based on the possibility of a new Liberal majority. All candidates are green. It will be a good race. The spotlight is on HVB: 3 new candidates, every other mega-municipality will want a referendum. Ward will have his hands full dealing with the result of the referendum to demerge the CoKL. At least he's not taking a stand one way or the other (Manners came out flying for deamalgamation - he ticked off a lot of pro-City voters) - to take a stand would be political suicide at this point.
	02/04/03	Cojo Email: connerjo345@hotmail.com
Judging solely by earlier submissions, it appears either Jason Ward and the Liberals have all the support of the riding, or his campaign is doing an excellent job of bombarding this website with comments. My feeling is it is the latter. Every comment is based on the same rhetoric and often use the same wording. The Liberals are not the runaway favourites for this riding. In fact, Ward will have to do much more than take advantage of a website and the local media to garner votes. Leave the website to the voters, not campaign workers.
	01/04/03	Simon Email:
New CKL residents are still steaming over the municipal amalgamation issue. Promising a referendum exacerbated the issue. Only Ward has publicly assured voters the new SuperJail will not be privatized - a big issue here. Although a traditionally swing riding - people are sick of the Tories, even the strong ones in the North of the riding (C. Hodgson's home turf). Doctor shortage is a big problem. Ward launched a plan to get more here - proof is in the pudding. Still confused about why Earl Manners would run in this Riding; no union vote; never lived here before; left wing politics is not usually well received in this densely senior area. Lots of exposure for the Liberal candidate - not much for the Tory candidate. Looks like a change is about to happen.
	02/04/03	mk Email:
The voters of this riding have elected a government member for the last 5 elections going back to John Eakins. With the retirement of Chris Hodgson, the likelihood is that it will again. It looks like a Liberal win across the province, which should lead to a Liberal win here. Based upon the media coverage and especially the question and answer series done by the Post, Jason Ward came across as articulate and knowledgeable. Laurie Scott had nothing but the tired Tory party line and Earl Manners was just plan arrogant (He actually had the gall to say he was the only candidate who would be a cabinet minister? Earl Manners as the Minister of Education-now there is a scary thought). I've also noted the difference in the two main campaign teams. Laurie's team seems to be following the same script that has been used in previous campaigns. Jason's team is doing new things, different things. He seems to be all over the riding meeting people and shaking hands while Laurie seems to be happy doing Tory party functions. The people of this riding want (and have always elected) a hard working representative. It appears this time that's a Liberal.
	01/04/03	KW Email:
Manners has alienated many voters already by being arrogant and presumptuous in the local press (especially in light of the fact that he moved to the Riding only recently). Scott has the backing of a Hodgson Team, but she seems content to campaign simply on the fact that she's her father's daughter (plus her Party seems to have no discernible platform of any kind). Ward is attacking the Riding at the grass roots level: door-knocking, outlining platforms, lots of local media coverage, attending local events. All candidates are new, so it comes down to who wants to work the hardest. Ward seems to be the only one who does not feel he is above working hard to win. Liberal win by a significant margin. People in this Riding are ready for a change.
	01/04/03	THE GAMBLER Email:
The Gambler is putting his money on Jason Ward to win Haliburton-Victoria-Brock. This is another one of my exclusive upset specials. This will be the best three way race in the province. My money is on LIB Ward to hang back and let NDP Earl Manners and PC Laurie Scott go out fast. By the time they get to the home stretch Manners and Scott will have burned themselves out. That's when Ward will make his move for a come from behind victory. You heard it here first.
	31/03/03	Tod Email:
Ward should win this Riding easily. Formerly a Tory stronghold, since the departure of Hodgson, constituents are looking for a new, strong candidate. Neither McGuinty nor Eves will win this Riding - Ward seems to be the only candidate who has put forward credible ideas to improve the Riding (i.e., doctor shortage, growth, etc.) and he has received a ton of local press (by traditionally 'blue' newspapers). Manners is perceived as extremely arrogant (justifiably based on local Q & A's in the papers) and Scott simply has nothing to say about anything. Ward is young, aggressive and has organized a strong Team behind him.
	31/03/03	Brian Email: brian@voodoohighwaymusic.com
If Hodgson had not retired, the Tories would have likely won this Riding again. Of the three new candidates, the Liberal Candidate, Ward, seems to have a convincing head start and has enjoyed much more local press coverage than his opponents. The NDP Candidate, a very left wing former head of the OSSTF, has angered teachers recently and will not be able to count on much pro-union vote in the Riding. The PC Candidate seems to be campaigning on her father's name only. At least the Liberal candidate has come out with a platform - a strong one. He's new to politics and is attempting to win the old fashioned way; by knocking on doors and actually being in the Riding to meet people. This will pay off - a Liberal win for sure.
	29/03/03	R Email:
Jason Ward will take this riding in a walk. Ward has received far more media coverage than any of the other candidates and is now a well known commodity in these parts. Manners will never win here, this is not a pro union area. The fact that he is receiving OSSTF financing will hurt rather than help his campaign. Scott's responses during a series of Q & As run in the Lindsay Post were far to vague. Her quassi support of the latest Eves fiasco (the budget) has likely done her in.
	29/03/03	MD Email:
If one is to judge by the press, Jason Ward will win this riding in a landslide. I personally think it will be closer than that but Jason should win none the less. He has received alot of favourable front page press,and this from a local media that is traditionally right wing in their views. Laurie Scott has not been visible and although her father was a popular MP for 27 years, the fact of the matter is that she is not her father and will need more than coattails to get elected. Earl Manners has done nothing but put his foot in his mouth since he parachuted into the area. His statements on municipal matters indicate a profound misunderstanding of the issues. The only time the NDP won in this riding was in 1990 with the Bob Rae sweep. At that time, neither the liberal or PC candidates were strong. This is not the case this time. Jason Ward should win by 5000 votes.
	28/03/03	EE Email:
Jason Ward and the liberals will take the riding. The momentum gained over the last 3 years from continuous Tory flip flops and mistakes will ride right through the election. Jason is a fresh new face for our riding and brings the strong conviction we need in a member.
	27/03/03	MK Email:
The previous posts on this board refer to the Liberal candidate Jason Ward as being virtually unknown. This couldn't be farther from the truth. Wake up! Read the papers. He is running a strong campaign. You underestimate the power of the 'unknown'.
	27/03/03	R Email:
A certain Liberal victory. The Tories have not been unable to undo the botched municipal amalgamation. No Tory platform of any consequence has been presented. A good strong Liberal candidate with lots of great ideas. As for the NDP - who's going to vote for the head of a teacher union? Not many.
	27/03/03	Tim Email: t.a.willcox@att.net
This riding has been decimated with the Tory government handling of healthcare, education and amalgamation. The wait times for treatments and the scarcity of new doctors in this riding has damaged out lifestyle and our security. It is hard to envision someone doing a worse job of managing the Ontarioo infrastrucutre than the current government.
	27/03/03	PM Email:
This rididng will be a three way race. In the past 20 years the rididng has seen members from all three parties elected which reflects the voters volatility. With the departure of Chris Hodgson, a powerful cabinet minister, the race is up for grabs. Provincial issues and he fury over amalgamation will create a backlash against the government. Ernie Eves recent flip flops and budget PR disaster will not sit well with a riding which had been a sure bet for the PC's. The NDP are running a well known candidate in Earl Manners. However, his position as a strong union leader will not gather a significant number of votes in a riding which does not have a large organized labour vote. The liberals are running a young candiate who has strong local ties in the vote rich southern section of the riding. If the Liberal campaign picks up steam provincially Ward will gather the anti government vote and could well upset the favoured Tories.
	27/03/03	P Reed Email:
Throughout the past year i have witnessed a sharp change in the attitude of those who i worship with. A middle class group they have moved from "the conservatives can do no wrong" to a strong support of Jason Ward - liberal. At teh Annual Meeting of the Church serious conversation accourred regarding the impact of cuts to social programs. Many seniors are not recieving benefits of tax cuts and many have had health concerns. Widly discussed in the member of the congregation who waited 8 days in hospital to have a broken leg set. Jason has been visable in the community and people are telling me about him. I hear similar stories in other area churches, so, i am predicting Liberal in this riding.
	27/03/03	Lynn Craigmyle Email: craigmyle@sympatico.ca
Jason Ward is going to represent the HVB riding at Queens Park in the near future.He is making all the right moves and is committed to getting out to meet with the people to get his message across. With Chris not running one of the most repeated comments are " We really like Chris, he did a lot for he riding, but we are really not too impressed with the folks he has been associated with in Toronto"
	17/03/03	AL Email: andylehrer@sympatico.ca
With Hodgson gone this open seat can go to anyone and with the NDP running recently retired OSSTF chief Earl Manners, the party can't be discounted especially as middle class and normally Liberal voting teachers swing over to the NDP in this race at least.
	17/03/03	Panther Email:
This riding will vote Tory. The events with the Catholic Teacher's Union and it's physical assault on the Minister of Education will have a huge negative impact on the Manner's campaign. Even if that event did not occur, this riding would still vote Tory. It has a huge population of small-c conservatives, electing Hodgson in 1999 with over 60% of the vote. Federally, the Reform/Alliance Party and the Federal PCs have done quite well as well, both coming within shooting distance of winning the seat in each election since 1993. Scott also ran for the federal Tories in 2000 and came in 3rd with almost 30% of the vote (the winning Lib had only 34%). Tory win hands down.
	16/03/03	SM Email:
I knew Earl was running, but I didn't know for what seat. With the special circumstances of no-name candidates for the other two parties, and the amalgamation issue, this very well could be an NDP win. Though it looks like it'll be tight.
	04/03/03	Craig Email:
The nomination of Earl Manners changes everything here. What was a safe Tory seat is now going to swing to the NDP, helped by the teachers pushing heavily here and the fact that virtual unknowns will carry the Tory and Liberal banners. The NDP should take a good portion of the Liberal vote, and possibly even some of the Tory votes that were angered over amalgamation. This could be quite a revolution here! I am sure this will mean pressure will be on for the resurrection of Victoria County!
	09/02/03	robert e Email:
Well well well. Who would have thought that this riding could go NDP? No Chris Hodgson - couldn't win because of amalgamation issue - internal Tory polls told them so. And how about those poor Grits who had nominated a virtual unknown youth prior to Hodgson's announcement. And now along comes Earl Manners to carry the NDP banner. How much money and resources (ie teachers knocking on doors) will come flowing into this riding now? Politics is an amazing game of chance sometimes. Many said that the teachers could not defeat former Education Minister Dave Johnson in his "safe" Tory seat.
	08/01/03	TM Email:
Chris Hodgson has announced he will not run for the Tories. With conservative support falling faster than the stock market theese days look for a sure Liberal pickup.
	08/01/03	Joe Email:
Hodgson retires. Should still stay PC but it will eat at the central campaign to have to find a candidate and such
	06/07/02	Andrew Cox Email:
Chris Hodgson by five furlongs. Reasons. 1) The Hodgson name is gold around here. Uncle was MPP. Dad was a big Reeve. Chris is a chip off the old block. 2) It don't come much more bedrock Tory that this. Ernie would have to leave Isabel for George Smitherman, and raise the PST to 50% to lose this riding. 3) The Kawartha Lakes amalgamation stuff is pretty bad for Chris, but he will chill it out before the election. Hodgson is a big gun in the PC government. He won't let this issue hurt him. 4) In the last election, Hodgson got 62% of the vote. The Liberals got 28%. That margin isn't going to close in one election. Too much drag on low-information voters in the riding who still think Harris is the Premier.
	28/10/02	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Hodgson was once ballyhooed as Mike Harris's chip-off-the-old-block heir apparent--and he still could be, provided that Oily gets slicked. Electorally, he's as strong as an ox--even if the PCs lose official party status, H-V-B will stay within the fold. Furthermore, in both 1997 and 2000, the federal Libs had their worst elected Ontario percentage here. (Ironically, before 1990 this was the stronghold of provincial Grit John Eakins!)

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