Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003


Last Update:
5:02 PM 07/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
9:44 PM 30/09/2003

Political Profile:

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Liberal Party:
Vance Badawey
Progressive Conservative:
Tim Hudak
New Democratic Party:
Julius Antal
Green Party:

Tim Hudak

Federal MP:
John Maloney

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

20481 50.68%

14603 36.14%

3884 9.61%

1009 2.5%

435 1.08%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality2 062
John Maloney
17 054 42.2%
Dean Allison
14 992 37.1%
David Hurren
5 174 12.8%
Jody Di Bartolomeo
2 423 6%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation63.10%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born84.87%
Ontario Born78.03%
Visible Minority1.80%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$132053

College/Trade School22050

Authorized by the CFO for the Erie-Lincoln Provincial PC Association
01/10/03 lol
Look at PC Mike complaining about people posting who have not finished high school. Look at your spelling and grammatical errors. Nice sentence structure sport. You have obviously not benefitted from 8 years of Tory education. Enjoy your Hudak victory, it will be one of about 30 all day. 30/103 = You FAIL! Very professional post. (sarcasm detected) You show your age and or ignorance.
01/10/03 Mike
A couple clarification to the morons who posted yesterday. Phote Finish : Badeway sign do NOT outnumber Hudak signs 2 to 1. It is the opposite. Nice lie. Also, you must be a huge idiot to think that Badeway has outworked Tim in Fe. Heck he hasn't outworked Tim anywhere. Lucky 100 : Another genius. Yes Tim won by 6000 votes last time but that translated to a 15% edge! That is much more than the party did in general. I sometimes wonder if some of the people posting here have finished high scool yet.
01/10/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
The key to this riding is Hudak must carry the Fort..and as reported on this site will not. Dunnville will break even, West Lincoln will go heavy to Hudak, the Port will go heavy to Vance B. Lincoln itself used to be heavy for Tim but has evened up with the Liberal swing drawing even with the Tory support.. If you add in the seat projections of all 5 Niagara ridings going liberal this riding will fall to the Liberal wave on Oct 2...Mind you I do think Tim will keep it close and not lose in a landslide..but he will still lose. BTW I want all to know that I am NOT a Liberal. ;-)
30/09/03 Lucky 100
Tim Hudak only managed to win last time by 5000 votes while his party beat the Liberals by 5 percent overall. This time the Liberals have a 15 percent lead. This gives the Liberals an edge. What makes the news even better for the Libeals in Erie-Lincoln is that Vance Badawey gives them a very strong candidate who is well known and respected by people in this riding for the job he's done as mayor of Port Colborne. Judging by the province wide sweep for the Liberals and the strength of Badawey, I cannot see Tim Hudak surviving. Erie-Lincoln will be a Liberal riding.
30/09/03 Photo Finish
This could be the closest race in Ontario on election night. I believe Vance Badawey will win Erie-Lincoln because he's doing so well in Fort Erie. This is very important because Fort Erie is Tim Hudak's home town and yet Liberal signs out number Conservative signs 2 to 1. Badawey and his team seem to have out worked Hudak in Fort Erie. As mayor of Port Colborne, Badawey will win his home town with a large majority and if you add a Badawey win to Fort Erie, then there is not enough of the riding left over for Hudak to win.
29/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
I am uncomfortable about this because I have predicted David Young to survive a similar situation in Willowdale in similar circumstances- a popular local candidate trying about 11% when the trend is factored in. But anyway, The Niagara region is much smaller than the Toronto region. The Toronto region is made up of 22 ridings and the Niagara region is only 5 so each of the ridings drastically affects each other. None of the ridings is an Etobicoke Centre/Don Valley West Tory meltdown that perverts the statistics. Tim Hudak will NOT lose by 11%. He has drastically improved his name recognition province-wide, has been a reasonably good member and will have a large e-day force working for him. That said, he was still the incumbant last time around so anyone smart enough to vote would have known his name. In addition, he is, unlike David Young, on the far right-wing end of his party. The union bashers will be out to get him. The last point comes back to the first point. A 25% swing in which there are only five ridings, none of which are implosion ridings. It looks like Mr. Hudak will be looking for a new job.
29/09/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
The seat projections based on the latest polls show 72 Liberals,22 Tories and 9 NDP.. They go further and show the loss of five PC seats in the Niagara region.. This was found on the Globe and Mail website today..The Liberal tide is going to do a clean sweep and my criticism is the 22 seats is way too high. I would put the Tory holds around 13/14. This seat is at least up for grabs...The liberals are now going after ridings they never thought they could win..They will flip seats which were solid Tory or NDP..The trouble with landslides is many of those who lose or win should never have lost or won.. Tim Hudak will be able to comment on this after Oct 2.
28/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
Mr. Hudak will be an island of blue in a sea of red and orange if the current polls are any indication. My calculations show that a very small NDP increase in vote, along with as much as an 8 point swing based on 1999 results show that Mr. Hudak would keep his seat, even with the smallest of margins.
28/09/03 Schmidt
I was at the barbershop yesterday and word on the street is that Badawey is totally ignoring the Beamsville and Smithville areas. This has even irritated some long time Liberals who begrudgingly admit that Hudak has given the area a lot of attention and some big dollar projects from the province. They were saying that they're going to go for Hudak since Badawey only seems to care about Port Colborne. Antal is similarly a non-entity but the NDP hardly gets any support in Beamsville anyway. I predict the Liberal vote will slide down in Beamsville and Smithville.
28/09/03 Informed
It is with great sadness that I have to honestly predict that Tim Hudak will retain his seat in Erie-Lincoln. Vance Badaway has not run a very effective campaign and Hudak has fared well in debates. The other candidates are non-factors. Hudak, whether true or not, is linked with the Fort Erie slots and an increase in regional tourism. This was an opportunity for the Liberals that got away, not because of candidate selection, but rather a very poorly run campaign and a popular (I don't know how)incumbent.
28/09/03 B.Mills
The present incumbent, Tim Hudak, has put much effort over the years into cultivating the "passive" vote, i.e the elderly and similar groups who in general are neither politically active nor politically sophisticated. Also he has tried very hard to be all things to all people; as a result many groups feel alienated and there is reason to believe that significant numbers of voters will be voting strategically this time around. In addition there is a major environmental issue in the riding that may play a part in the outcome. Tim has built a reputation on "Saving Marcy's Woods". Almost 6,000 people have signed petitions to urge outright expropriation. Meanwhile the Tories have allowed a rich developer to acquire this unique site, while insisting that they have "protected" it with a Minister's Zoning Order. Few or none of those 6,000 will be voting Conservative this time. I suspect a surprise upset in this riding.
28/09/03 Andrew Cox
Liberal Gain. I am stupified that this seat is not in the up-for-grabs category. It just shows how inflexible this project is to massive swings. The Ipsos-Reid numbers show the Grits 15% ahead in Hamilton-Niagara. Hudak only won by 14%, in an election where the Grits lost the region by 10%. So we are talking a 25% swing and just a 14% margin. That spells an upset, here. 2) The same sex marriage issue SHOULD be moving those nice Dutch farmers in Lincoln to stay hardy PC, but Ernie's life partner issue is getting doors slammed in Hudak's face. 3) Badawey will mobilize a good turnout in strong Liberal polls, drowning out a weak turnout as the PC voter stay home to protest Ernie/make Jim Flaherty the leader. 4) The only issue Tim's got left is the Private School Tax Credit, and those guys all voted PC last time. Conclusion: Bye Tim, Hello Vance.
28/09/03 The Big Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
I can't see this riding going Liberal. Hudak is reasonably popular in a riding that clearly leans to the right. The gap between the Torys and the Grits will be closed but I'm betting this will stay blue next week.
28/09/03 TM
PC Hold. Tim Hudak is running hard and has a strong campaign. He is popular locally and will be one of the few tories to hold their seats.
26/09/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
I was in the Credit Union today conducting informal poll..On the basis of talking in public about the election people said they respected Tim.. The problem he is in the wrong party,with the wrong plan with the wrong leader and he is going down big time sorry about that... This was in public with many people able to hear.. Lots of general agreement all around. My experience when you can go public with a view who might win and receive lots of positive agreement the landslide effect is in play. Hudak will pull around 40% of the vote with Vance taking 44%...The most interesting part is people were wishing him well as he has this new opprtunity to find new employement..Very nice actually..The last time this same thing happened was in 1990 when Harry P the local MPP was defeated by Ron Hanson..
25/09/03 Parkdale Pete
Hudak will hold no matter what happens provincially - Badawey has been a huge disappointment and has tried to go Negative (calling tim Two Tiered - tim on cogeco.- and there are rumours that he will be putting in his Mayor papers this week. Vance Taxaway dosen't have a chance!!
24/09/03 A. Stewart
Email: tora6l@hotmail.com
Hudak has been a decent if not super-high profile member, and has a big sign lead in the more rural area west of Port Colborne (which is where I have been through; in fact Badawey's sign and canvassing presence there is weak) However; there is going to be a 15 to 20 point swing in this election, and Hudak is not personally popular enough to withstand that. Badawey is a decent candidate (at minimum) and that will be enough. This will be the best Tory riding in the area, but it will fall and go Liberal (though I will be voting for Mr Hudak)
23/09/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
Visited Hudak's HQ. They know they are facing a landslide provincially..Clark is a write off and they fear the loss of Tim Hudak too..The key to the campaign is the ability of Hudak to build a nice win in Dunnville,West Lincoln and Lincoln standing off the Liberal win in the Port and holding the Fort.. If the Liberals can break even in the Fort,sweep the Port and hold down the Tory margin in Lincoln they win.. It is almost a repeat of 1987 and 1990.. with the huge swing this time going against the Govt.
21/09/03 Wayne
Small c conservative riding? C'mon folks, we all know if the right united this riding would be completely right wing federally. This is an ultra-right wing riding. The ideology is like reform, and this seat is a lock for the conservatives, no matter how badly Eves and the tories flounder.
17/09/03 Parkdale Pete
If last nights Cogeco Debate is any indication - Hudak is a lock! Badawey looked aggressive and "Negative" - Hudak was calm and composed - and knew his policy without having to look at a script all night. It's a shame the media never reports when the Lierals go negative.
08/09/03 Ping Pong
Vance Badawey is a very strong candidate with an even stronger Liberal platform behind him. The problem is that Tim Hudak is, in my estimation, the best politican the Tories have right now. For all this previous inexperience, Mr. Hudak can deliver the Tory message better than most and he is seen as someone who has "done things" for this riding. You know that Hudak will have tons of cash from various source like the wineries he has been playing to exclusively since becoming Minister of Consumer and Business Services and I believe that he has a good team behind him. Vance's only shot will be to steal Fort Erie from Tim because he should do well in his home town of Port Colborne. West Lincoln is a Liberal sinkhole and should allow Hudak to retain his seat.
07/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: ericbucholz@hotmail.com
The Erie Lincoln riding is a fairly small c conservative riding. The redistribution before the last election effectively concentrated conservative support in the penninsula, with alot of the rural area in this one riding. Witness Mr. Hudak's majority win here last time, and Dean Allison's near toppling of John Maloney federally. A riding that in part went with Phil Andrewes in 1985 should go comfortably for Mr. Hudack now.
18/07/03 Paint My Fence
The word is that Vance Badawey's campaign manager resigned last month because the campaign is going so badly. Hudak is going to win Fort Erie because he brought the slot machines to Fort Erie Raceway. This has brought millions of dollars to Hudak's home town and locked up the city for him. Badawey is a total unknown outside of Port Colborne.
18/07/03 D
Once the election is called, Vance Badawey will come out fighting. I would expect many former NDP voters will go to Vance as an anti PC vote. Vance is already making some strong comments regarding the strategies of the Ontario Tory government in the local Evening Tribune. Vance indicated that he will be running to win. The overall trend is still strongly Liberal. I believe that most of the voters in this riding will go with a candidate who will be a member of the majority party - Liberals in the upcoming election.
18/07/03 Ringleader Sally
Tim Hudak has a personal appeal and a big campaign manchine behind him that I now consider him to be the equal of Jim Bradley and Peter Kormos. Both Bradley and Kormos continue to win their ridings whether their party's are up or down in the polls. Hudak is the same now. He's going to be around for decades. As for poor Vance Badawey, the million dollar lawsuit won't go away and the word is that Badawey's campaign manager quit last month because the campaign was going so badly. There is no type of contest in Erie-Lincoln. Hudak is heading for his biggest win ever.
15/07/03 WD
I was talking to Tim's campaign organizer a few weeks ago and I think the Dutch factor is going to carry Hudak in this election. Smithville and Dunnville are chock full of highly motivated, well-off private school supporters who will not only turn out in record numbers and contribute to the campaign financially, they'll also staff the phones and get the vote out. Add to that the fact that most of the poor misguided yokels in this riding actually support the mid-pennisular highway (it will bring prosperity! cable television! box stores!), are not troubled by rampant urban sprawl and believe the Tory cant of jobsandtheeconomy, and Tim can't miss. He's not going to carry Port Colborne by a huge margin, but he'll still win the riding by over 20%. This is one of the few 905 ridings where PC voters will actually be motivated to vote for the party, despite the Eves factor.
15/07/03 Panther
I thought that after Panther's little hiatus that some of the die hard liberal posters in this riding would give up, since their candidate apparently already has. Hudak will win this riding by a greater margin than I first thought. Aside from bringing such things to the riding as more jobs at Rich Products in Fort Erie, keeping the Fort Erie Hospital open, and taking the lead at trying to bring more tourists from Buffalo to Fort Erie, he has been campaigning hard since the beginning of the year. He has campaign offices open throughout the riding, a website, a solid war chest and volunteers coming out the ying yang. Even if the Liberals had a solid candidate running for them, they would still have a hard time beating Hudak. But alas, they just have Badaway. The Liberals, have no campaign offices, no website, no volunteers, no campaign money. The only time Badaway has faced the public has been to defend the lawsuit against him from that polling company. Furthermore, if Badaway wins in Stevensville (as Pony suggests), I will personally march up and down Main Street carrying a Badaway sign and singing "My Heart Belongs to Vance"!!
12/07/03 Pony
Sorry Tim. Nice guy, wrong party. And your time is up. Watch for die-hard NDP fellars...on strike at Inco for example...to vote Liberal this time around just to see Ernie and his Bay Street Boys lose control. It's time for a change friends. And Erie-Lincoln is quickly becoming an important riding. It is comprised of small towns. Small towns that truly feel the affects of cuts to education and hospitals. Vance is a strong candidate...an experienced "common man" that will steal votes from those who are now realizing that voting for NDP does not produce the changes they want. A strong Liberal-NDP alliance in this riding, coupled with the lifelong PCs who are sick of this government's mistakes will see Ernie, a leader that nobody really trusts, go down and go down hard. I think Vance will steal this area. Why? Well, obviously he'll take Port...he has to. But he'll also clean up in Dunnville and steal alot of votes from Tim's back pocket in Fort Erie and Stevensville...where people are now realizing that, as nice, polished and charming as Timmy is, he is still part of a team comprised of people that have lost the confidence of this province through scandal, passing blame and cuts, cuts, cuts.
20/06/03 Canal Daisy
Vance Badawey was in the Welland Tribune yesterday apologizing to SES Research for saying the survey they did in this region was a push poll. An SES spokesman did not say that this meant they would be dropping their million dollar lawsuit against Badawey. It really doesn't matter what happens now. The damage to Badawey is done. This scandal showed that Badawey lacks the judgement needed to be a member of provincial parliament. Tim Hudak can now look forward to another term in office.
11/06/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
Tim Hudak is running ads in favour of private schools in the Lincoln Post Express. This is a wedge issue in this area...He has his targeted audience...whose goal is the undermining of Public education...I wonder if this is because his lead is soft...To use an ad which is not in the self interest of over 85% of voters is interesting...He is either in the safest seat in the province or he is targeting his base of support in a tight race.
03/06/03 JR
A poll done this spring for the Ontario Clean Air Alliance puts Hudak 20 points ahead of Badawey, which is very different from polling numbers from other parts of the province. I think Badawey is in tough in this one, especially with his push poll comments and the legal action against him. Of interest, SES Research, the polling firm Badawey accused of using a push poll, recently wrapped a poll for the Osprey newspapers (including the Tribune, Review and Standard) and found that most Ontarians think Dalton McGuinty is the best choice for premier and that it's time for a change at Queen's Park. Does Badawey think this one was a push poll as well?
31/05/03 Beanie Baby
One of the safer seats in Torydom. Hudak is a hard-working guy who is constantly pushing the envelope. He is well known in his riding and works hard for his constituents. Badawey is in over his head with Hudak.
30/05/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
I believe the Tory hopefuls are counting their chickens before they have hatched. This riding will be very close...Antal(NDP) will not get 10% of the vote and neither will the Greens receive 8% of the vote....Most of these voters will vote liberal..I see the NDP at 5% and the Greens below 2% for a total of 7% instead of 18%.. The 11 % difference is not going to Timmy and his plans to dismantle the province's educational system and infrastructure...I wil admit Timmy could edge out a victory by a whisper,but any talk of a Tory landslide in Erie Lincoln is misplaced at best...
29/05/03 PC in PC
Email: PortColborne_Tory@canada.com
With the election call delayed to the fall, Badawey will be under great pressure to step down as Mayor. There are increased grumblings in Port Colborne that Badawey is neglecting his duties as Mayor in favour of his provincial campaign including lots of meetings in Toronto. He has told different people different things, sometimes saying he will step down, others he won't and others that he still intends on running for Mayor in November. It will be interesting to see if, by playing both sides of the fence, he may jeopardize his chance at either office.
23/05/03 Grizz
Conservatives by a landslide. Tim has a bright future and for some strange reason I put him in the same category as Bernard Lord in New Brunswick. As for Vance, he's in hot water and best stay in municipal politics.
23/05/03 Kegmaster J
I was visiting my dad in Dunnville and Vance Badawey, Liberal candidate came to the door looking for votes. I'd read a story in the paper about McGuinty's plan to balance the budget so I asked Badawdy a couple questions. He didn't know what I was talking about. After a minute or two, I figured out that I knew more about what McGuinty was talking about than Badawey did. I don't think Hudak needs to worry about getting re-elected.
20/05/03 Shaker
Tim Hudak is a polished and experienced provincial cabinet minister. Vance Badawey can't seem to keep his foot out of his mouth and the campaign hasn't even started yet. This is no contest. Here's what I think the final results will be. Hudak 52%, Badawey 32%, Antal 10%, Green Party 8%.
17/05/03 Dr. Johnny Fever
Email: jf@hotmail.com
Despite forcasts that he was in -- way over his head -- in the first Harris Cabinet...Hudak has more than proven his nay sayers wrong. He has worked hard at the Cabinet Table delivering for Niagara Region. Look for the beer and liquor industry to go after him big time...for his shameless promotion of the Ontario wine industry at their expense...shame shame shame Hudak...you can't always favour your own part of Ontario!!!!!
17/05/03 Val Gibbons
Email: valeriegibbons@hotmail.com
Although the outcome of the general election is certainly in doubt, I think it's safe to say that this is a very safe seat for Hudak. He took over 50% of the popular vote in 99 (a year when the Tories lost seats), he's young, articulate and has been consistently promoted in Cabinet by both Harris and Eves. The more relevant question might be when he might run for the leadership of the party rather than if he's going to beat a municipal politician from Port Colborne. The Liberals have a shot at many Tory seats in Ontario, this isn't one of them.
12/05/03 D
There will likely be some more spin and making a mountain out of a mole hill with regards to the polling issue. But realize this, the trend at this time is Liberal upward & PC's downward. Mr. Badawey will benefit from the desire for change and the media "hammering" the PC party. Sorry PC supporters - he will win with a large margin in the upcoming election.
10/05/03 PC in PC
Email: PortColborne_Tory@canada.com
Now let me get this straight: Michael Ensley claims he recently received a phone call from infamous poll that got Badawey in hot water. Ensley claims that it was a bogus poll. What seems bizarre is that according to the Welland Tribune, the poll was released about a month ago and, if I recall, was based on random phone calls taken in January. Now either Mr. Ensley had three month amnesia and suddenly recalls a phone call from January or Ensley's claim -not the poll - is bogus. Badawey apologists like Ensley can't escape the fact that their fair haired boy has a bad habit of tripping on his tongue. A friendly bet says Badawey publicly apologizes to the pollster before he gets in more hot water.
02/05/03 Marve
Good thing this ensley guy was polled - I guess this energetic Liberal was one of the few that chose Badawey. Is this the same Michael Ensley that on the Stoney Creek riding took Clark's poll to mean clark is safe?? Don't take Michael's word for granted (or Badawey's for that matter) - Check out the SES web site - www.sesresearch.com - Looks legitimate to me -Or do MADD canada and the Bank of Canada (both listed as clients) - do alot of push polling. Let me repeat my previous prediction - Hudak in a walk - no matter what happens provincially.
02/05/03 Sailer Ted
Everyone on this website seems to think that Vance Badawey is going to win the Port Colborne part of the region. I live here and I can tell you that there are a lot of people who don't like how Badawey runs city hall and won't vote for him. Nobody I talk to here in Port Colborne is surprised that Badawey is being taken to court by that polling company. Badawey has a history of shooting his mouth off and it finally caught up to him. I think it's been good for our region to have a cabinet minister like Hudak working for us. Don't be surprised if Tim Hudak beats Badawey in Port Colborne.
29/04/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
Somehow, I was called and took part in the poll Vance has criticized. The person taking the poll was not very professional and IMHO the poll at best was bush leaque. Voters will remember who has hurt the province rather than a lawsuit by a bush leaque polling firm
24/04/03 Fester
I read in the Welland Tribune this week that a polling company called SES Canada Research is suing Vance Badawey for libel. According to the Tribune asked some leading questions when they did a poll in the riding. The Tribune did not say when this case will be in court. Badawey will also pay a political price for his mistake. It's clear now that he's a small town mayor and is out of his league running to be an MPP.
22/04/03 THE GAMBLER
The Gambler is putting his money on Tim Hudak to win Erie-Lincoln. PC Hudak is using this election as a training camp. If Eves fails to win it all, Hudak is looking to get in the ring with some real heavyweights like Flaherty and Ecker to battle it out for the PC leader's job. In the mean time Hudak is using LIB candidate, Vance Badawey as a punching bag as he prepares for bigger fights ahead. No chance of an upset here. You'll laugh all the way to the bank if you put your money on Hudak.
10/04/03 Panther
Now, take a moment to look at the past election results. Lincoln, West Linocln, Dunnville, Wainfleet and parts of Fort Erie are conservative strongholds (even during Liberal wins; and both federally and provincially). Hudak won these areas in 1999 by too large a margin to lose them this time around. Hudak will likely lose the majority of polls in Port Colborne. Big whoop!! He lost these polls in 1999 and 1995 (incidentally in 1995 another popular Liberal from Port Colborne ran against Hudak and lost). One final point, having a later election (ie) late Spring or Fall, will seriously harm Badway's chances for election victory (what little chance there was to begin with). He's one of those people where the more a voter sees him, the less they trust him (he's very suspicious looking and acting). If I were the local Liberals, I'd keep Badway out of the public eye until absolutely necessary. Hudak wins this riding easily.
10/04/03 D
Many people that I spoken with feel that Mr. Hudak is a yes man (i.e. always no matter what he tows the party line). However, Mr. Badaway is not afraid to stand up & fight hard for his ideas and has done a lot of work for the City of Port Colborne. Also alot of people are fed up with $6.85 hour minimum wage that the PC's love to keep at this low level.
05/03/03 Robbs
Lincoln Councillor, Rob Foster has tight affiliations with the Liberal party - he has a seat on the riding association's executive - he was also considering running and I believe is trying to oust Konkle for Mayor, don't give me that..."even the support of local politician" junk it doesnt' fly. Here is the problem, Badeway is weak, you guys have picked a poor candidate, he will show poorly on doorsteps and will have limited support outside of Port Colborne. Hudak is Premier or Federal PC material and the only real challenge he could have faced would have been if you'd talked Debbie Zimmerman into running and I personally don't think she's much better.
01/04/03 Michael W Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
The NDP vote has completly collapsed in Erie Lincoln. The NDP riding association has lost their President and their last candidate who will not run. Being smeared is not a turn on. The only possible candidate is a has been or a parachute sent to the slaughter. The few pockets of NDP support like in Crystal Beach will go to Badawey. The NDP vote will set a record low. I even know of NDP members who are voting liberal. Badawey was in Beamsville checking out parking spaces receiving support from local council person Bob Foster. Look for Timmy's margins to be seriously cut back in West Lincoln and Lincoln. Timmy is going down. The key to the defeat is the sweep of the Port and the Fort by Badawey. This seat is no longer a Tory hold and is very much up for grabs and will go liberal.
30/03/03 B.G.
Email: bg1031@hotmail.com
Fort Erie a Hudak stronghold? Maybe not so strong anymore. I think it is important not to underestimate the backlash that will visit Mr. Hudak whenever Magellan Corp, finally gets around to closing Fleet Industries. The sad way that Tory legislation has allowed the employer to devastate the workers, their families and indeed the community. Many Fort Erians view the closing of Fleet as the end of an era of good paying jobs in Fort Erie. Irvin, Horton Steel, now Fleet, all good paying jobs, all gone. While it was the Harris-Eves government that enacted the legislation which allows Magellan to move Fort Erie jobs to Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia, Tim is the one being blamed. 300 workers, 0 jobs for them, one fair haired cabinet minister to blame, and a community standing behind the workers, can't be good for Tim. I can think of more than a few people in his hometown that want to see him in a new position.
27/03/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Say what one will, but Tim Hudak's a defter political master than most if not all of the younger Tory MPP/ministers out there. (Playing the appropriate right-wing thing, yet also looking good in announcing the Libeskind ROM plan? Wow.) Besides, Port Colborne is fairly insular as a Liberal stronghold; after all, it didn't prevent an Alliance near-victory in E-L in 2000. And while Hudak's personal political base is Fort Erie, his *real* source of strength is that slab of Lincoln/West Lincoln/Wainfleet conservative farm country where Family Coalition traditionally does well. And following 1999's strategizing, the Liberals don't have too much depleted NDP constituency left to soak up, short of an altogether New Democrat pullout. But Badawey can still soak up a lot of mayoral good-will reinforcement, and in the event the Tories get routed this remains on the Grit-takeover tray. That is, if Hudak hasn't turned Erie-Lincoln into a potential personal Tory fiefdom a la Jim Bradley for the Liberals or Peter Kormos for the NDP. Come to think of it, he'd make a great Tory opposition leader, wouldn't he...
26/03/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
I agree with Pete on the choice of venue reflecting Hudak's strength in caucus and his connections to the Eves regime. However, with regime change in the air even here in the north this is attempt of a dying regime to save a future leadership hopeful. I even agree with Pete this is a wedge issue among private school supporters. This is helpful in several ridings in the GTA and wil help Timmy here in the north. However, it cannot save him. Basically, the problem for them is "it is time for a change" is in the political air. I doubt if what is in the air can be changed to deny the coming change. Thus Regime change will me here and maybe even before Baghdad,Washington or London. ;-) The loss of this riding wil be due to a majority Liberal Govt with a reduced Tory caucus of under 34 seats.
25/03/03 Petrol Pete
Email: Petrolpete@hotmail.com
The reasons for Eves choice of Smithville for the independent school tax credit are likely very straightforward. The goal of the province wide announcement was obviously to shore up the right wing vote in the run up to an election and present a McGuinty wedge issue. Erie-Lincoln was the riding with the highest Flaherty vote outside of Flaherty's own riding during the leadership. What better place then this riding to demonstrate the unity move to the Conservative base? The symbolism was important. Secondly, it was within about an hour's drive of Toronto which leads to strong media coverage. Third, it shows the Premier has faith in Hudak's local organization to put together a good crowd and solid photo-op. Based on what I saw on television, mission accomplished. Indeed, contrary to Mr. Ensley's view, this event in fact reflects Hudak's strength in caucus by the faith Eves put in him to deliver.
21/03/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
The recent announcement about extending the private school income tax kickback was made in Smithville at the local Christian Reform school. Why was Smithville chosen to make this announcement vs elsewhere? The number of Dutch reform voters is high here. Also, the votes for the CHP in 1990 would have delivered 10 more seats to the PC's if the PC's had taken 2/3's of those votes. Me thinks ihis is proof positive Timmy is in trouble and they wanted to shore up their vote in Erie Lincoln. The problem is the CHP is basically dead and those who are wise to what is going on are repelled. Thus, for every new CHP voter this wins a former NDP voter will switch to the liberals. Also, public school supporters in the West Lincoln area know which way to vote now. A draw and thus Timmy remains in trouble proof of which is the venue of this announcement.
14/03/03 Brian Ort
Up until a month ago I had every intention of voting for the Liberal candidate. However, due to a number of shenanigans that have taken place on the liberal campaign I'm staying away from them. I've been offering my services to the Liberals on a number of occassions since last fall. I've still had no response. Meanwhile, Hudak's campaign as already called my house (and a number of my neighbours) asking for lawn signs, volunteers, etc. Now I read that the Liberal candidate could be facing a law suit because of mouthing off in the media. After much soul searching, I've realized that having Mr. Hudak as an MPP isn't so bad (even though he's a Tory). And yes, I'll even volunteer for him as a member of the "Liberals For Hudak" contingent(and there's quite a few of us). I predict Hudak will win this riding by a huge margin. Badawey and his campaign team are just too inexperienced and disorganized.
12/03/03 Marve
Hudak will win. A poll has been released showing Hudak with a solid lead on the Ballot question when running against badawey. Badawey tried to call it a push poll and is being threatened with a lawsuit by the polling company. 3) Hudak has billboards up in the south end of the riding and I got a call from his campaign office asking for volunteers. Hudak is organized. As for John Maloney's influence. He would have lost the last 2 federal elections if it wasn't for vote splitting. If the Tories only win 10 seats this will probably be one of them.
13/03/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
Deb Zimmermann was asked to run in Stoney Creek against Clark with her base in Grimsby being Clark's area of strength. Clark carried Grimsby enabling him to win last time. Liberals did polling in both ridings. Ms Zimmermann backed away from both nominations. She has wisely waited. Besides IMHO she would have lost to both Timmy or Clark.
11/03/03 Petrol Pete
Email: Petrolpete@hotmail.com
The fact that the Liberal's top recruit, Debbie Zimmerman, took a pass is a strong indicator that Erie-Lincoln should stay in Tory hands. Judging by electoral history, the local economy and candidate profile, the seat should be in the top 20-25 Tory seats. Zimmerman saw this and will look to Stoney Creek or a future federal/provincial election. Other strong candidates in Fort Erie and Beamsville also declined. Badeway is hardly a top tier candidate with profile only in the Port Colborne area. Badeway's likely gamble is to roll the dice in 2003 in case of a Grit sweep, keep his Mayor's job and strongly contest a more favourably distributed riding in 2007 when the Alliance leaning areas are hived off leaving Port Colborne, Fort Erie and Welland as a Liberal bastion.
08/03/03 Ryan
Mr. Hudak is certainly a rising political star. However, it is important to note that Mr. Badawey is as well. Badawey will unquestionably finish strong in Port Colborne, where he is loved. Look for him to steal quite a few seats because of local cuts to hospitals and education. Small town communities really feel those cuts! However, if he is to win, he is going to have to bring up Hudak's personal spending of government money on trips to Brazil and other areas while he was Minister of Northern Mining. Look for Badawey to steal seats in Fort Erie and Stevensville using the support of popular federal MP incumbent John Maloney. Prediction: Badawey wins a close one!
15/02/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
Tim's real base is the Fort. A factory just closed down in the Port after a strike at Magellan. The talk in the Fort is Tim and his Govt is the cause of the plant closing and being moved. Tim has countered offering Govt help to each worker. May I point out it is not private enterprise to offer money for "losers". Tim's knows if his base is threatened so is his re-election. My point is the margins in the north of 60 to 70% are no longer there. Being invloved in local community work has led me to the conclusion Tim will still carry the north but NOT with the margins of the past. I can see a 54 to 46 margin in the north. Thus, the liberal win will be because of a sweep of the Port, Dunnville, Wainfleet polls and taking polls around the Fort(like Ridgeway) and some polls in the Fort. Tim will win in the north but the liberals will cut his margins in the north. The NDP has collapsed and their few pockets of support in the south will now swing to the liberals helping around Crystal beach and in the Fort.
10/02/03 Marve
Michael is dead wrong. I also hail from Beamsville and everyone I talk to think of Tim Hudak as a golden boy. He is the first Cabinet Minister there since the Silver Fox, Phil Andrewes, and is seen as a Future leader or Premier. I have never seen a politian in the paper more than Tim - and not only just before the next election - for the last 4 yrs he has been in the paper almost every week. This Vince Badaway/Wayne fellow that is spoken of is a no- name - I had never heard of him before he decided to run. Even if Ernie and the Tories go down to defeat - Tim should be safe.
10/02/03 Andrew Cox
Too Close to Call. Reasons. 1) I had written this off as probably going PC until I heard Vance Badawey (and that is the proper spelling) was in the race. Badawey will mop up in Port Colborne, can sell himself and his platform across the riding, and has a strong local record. It makes this race similar to Elgin in 1999: a high-profile mayor tries to win big in the city to off-set the PC incumbent's lead in the country. It worked for Steve Peters; it could work for Badawey. 2) The Dutch farmers and other conservatives in Lincoln and Dunville backed Hudak big-time. But I can already hear voices saying "I like you, Mr. Hudak. But that Ernie Eves..." Ernie's private life, support for abortion and support for gay rights will push some of that ultra-right-wing vote over to the Family Coalition Party or keep them home on election day. 3) The soil contamination issues in Port Colborne will keep the environment front and centre during the campaign. Badawey will have a strong lead over Hudak on this stuff. 4) Fort Erie was a saw-off last time around, with Boyko taking more than a few polls. Voters there read the Tribune or the Record, same as in Port Colborne. They'll know Badaway's name and recognize him as fighting in their interest on key issues like the mid-pennisula highway and keeping the local hospital open 24/7. 5) The local papers love Badawey. It showed when he announced his intention to run for the Liberals and the main Tribune columnist described him as hard-working, credible and that "Badawey's teamwork style has helped the city move forward in the past six years, with a number of new businesses moving here and an aggressive campaign to improve infrastructure, such as water/sewer and roads." The coumnist said the move turned the contest into a "horse-race." Conclusions: Badawey makes this a race.
04/02/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
Panther mades some valid points. However, I live in Beamsville and the time for a change is in the air. The previous liberal who badly last time was from Dunnville. Wayne B is not going to lose badly at all. The NDP vote in Erie Lincoln has collapsed and these votes will now move to Timmy. I can see Tim doing well in Fort Erie. However we must remember the Fort is not as big at the Port. Wayne will sweep the Port maybe all polls. The key to the election is in the north. If Wayne can make some inroads into the north Timmy will be gone. Living in the north and not being liberal I can detect a swing to send Tim back to the Fort
03/02/03 Panther
Erie Lincoln will stay in Tory hands for the following reasons: 1. The Mayor of Port Colborne, Vince Baddway is seeking the Liberal Nomination to run against Hudak. Baddway is from the most Liberal area of Erie Lincoln (Hudak won virtually every poll in the riding in 1999, except portions of Port Colborne). Baddway will no doubt do quite well in this part of the riding. However, once he goes outside Port Colborne city limits, he is a virtual unknown. The people in the nothern part of the riding will not likely have any clue of who Baddway is. 2. The Northern portion of Erie-Lincoln (as well as Dunnville and Wainfleet) is traditionally a strong Conservative area. The Canadian Alliance in the last federal election won the majority of the these polls and Hudak won many of these polls in 1999 with 70% of the votes or more. 3. Hudak will do quite well in his hometown of Fort Erie, to counter the Baddway effect in Port Colborne. Hudak has become Fort Erie's favourite son. They will vote in droves for Hudak to ensure that he stays in Queen's Park. For these reasons, Hudak will once again take Erie Lincoln in a landslide. Baddway, while likely the strongest candidate the liberals have to offer, will be decimated at the polls which will be a major blow to the local liberal association and to Baddway's ego!
30/01/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
Vance Badaway (sp), the Mayor of Port Colbourne is running for the liberals. His base is in the Port. He must do better in the northern part of the riding to win. If he can he will win. IMHO "regime" change is in the air here.;-)
28/01/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
Vance Badaway (sp), the Mayor of Port Colbourne is running for the liberals. His base is in the Port. He must do better in the northern part of the riding to win. If he can he will win. IMHO "regime" change is in the air here.;-)
10/01/03 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
The liberals are doing internal polling in Erie-Lincoln. They are asking who would you vote if The Mayor of Port Colborne is the Liberal candidate or Debbie Zimmerman. Then they ask your opinion of Tim Hudak. The NDP candiate is mispronounced as Dave Thompson rather than has Dave Thomas. IMHo this polling shows the liberals are serious about running a "star" candidate against Tim Hudak. This could indicate the riding is more up for grabs than previously thought. Combined with Carr and other Tories stepping down it could be this Govt is now doomed.;-)
16/12/02 MVW
Tim Hudak should be safe here. He is popular in Niagara - and has a high profile as a young rising star - Cabinet Minister. While there is talk of a Liberal superslate for Niagara - No matter who they run - Tim will be tough to beat. Even if the Tories were to lose the election, this is one of the seats they should hold.
21/10/02 Bryan
Tim Hudek is safe here. He ran and won a majority last time. This time around he's an influential cabinet minister, with a much more public profile. This is a safe Tory seat come election time.
21/10/02 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
Hudak took this seat with over 50% of the vote. The liberals will be hard pressed to win it. The Mayor of Port Colbourne is the only chance they have to make this race.

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