Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003


Last Update:
9:27 PM 30/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
9:27 PM 30/09/2003

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
Jerry Boyle
Progressive Conservative:
Gerry Martiniuk
New Democratic Party:
Pam Wolf
Green Party:

Gerry Martiniuk

Federal MP:
Janko Peric

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

24583 54.84%

10244 22.85%

8684 19.37%

824 1.84%

489 1.09%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality7 233
Janko Peric
22 148 46.6%
Reg Petersen
14 915 31.4%
John L. Housser
5 988 12.6%
Pam Wolf
4 111 8.6%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation70.90%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born78.86%
Ontario Born67.14%
Visible Minority6.88%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$152926

College/Trade School26100

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29/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
Email: gerardjkennedy@hotmail.com
Gerry Martinuk is an unspectatular backbencher who will lose more votes than the average Tory. The NDP will not win this riding but they may take enough votes to allow Tories to get back in. That said, some of the close ridings have got to go Liberal so here goes my prediction... Liberals=39%/Tories=39%/NDP=18%/Others=4%. Boyle by about 80 votes.
29/09/03 Molly
If lwan sign count is a good indicator...should be Liberals in Cambridge, hands down!
Yanko Peric got in because of vote splitting in 1993 and has stayed ever since. I do not think that this is going to happen again in this riding because the PC vote is not going to be split with the Reform. If anything I think the centrist-left vote could get split between the Liberals and the NDP, keeping this seat in the Tory column. Local papers put this as a tough race with a possible Liberal win. This may influence people just "waking up" to the campaign. If Liberals do take this riding, they take because of a provincial trend to elect anyone who is Liberal. Its just too close to call to put in anyone's column with maybe, just maybe the local volunteers making the difference on election night by getting out the vote. A real nail bitter with lots of coverage on election night courtesy of CTV affiliate CKCO.
29/09/03 Kate
this race has been close but the Liberal candidate has been out working the area since march, he has impressed voters with his energy and his concern. he has spoken and attended ALL meeting concerning southwood school, even before it became fashion and had recieved assurrances from OLP about the closure first. So liberal by a squeak
28/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
Mr. Martinuk may have been quoted as not sleeping alot, but he can take solace in the fact that the NDP usually polls stronger here than province wide, and there is a strong conservative base here both federally and provincially. Even with the anticipated 7-8 percentage point swing towards the Liberals, it would take about a 12 point swing, based on 1999 results, to actually sent Mr. Martinuk packing.
28/09/03 Jay
Email: anti_matter69@yahoo.com
I believe that Martiniuk will win this riding. He has secured an extra 25 million for nurses, built a record 6 schools, got 16 million for Conestoga College, upgraded the 401 highway, added 2 new nursing homes and the list goes on.... He also won by 14000 votes in the last election, and I don't believe that significant lead will just "disappear"
28/09/03 A.E
Email: alnu_cephmiar@yahoo.co.uk
Gerry Martiniuk has been quoted in the Toronto Star as saying: "It's still a three-way race and I haven't slept in the last couple of days, worrying about it," In this he is 100% correct. Cambridge's demographics(blue collar etc.), and it's electoral past, plus recent polls, mean that Cambridge is wide-open. I feel very reluctant to call this one either way, as it literally *could* go any one of three ways.
28/09/03 Chems
This one should move to Liberal/PC toss-up. Results from the K-W Record poll: PC - 40% (Martiniuk) Lib - 39% NDP - 18% Oth - 3%
27/09/03 Waterloo Region Insider
This one is way too close to call. While today's Record showed the Liberals and PCs neck and neck with the NDP way back in third with only 18%, these numbers don't seem to jive. This one is a lot closer than that, and Liberal Jerry Boyle doesn't seem to be in the picture. Pam Wolfe's campaign has gained a lot of support. At ground level it seems as though Wolfe should be able to take this one. However, strategic voters might now flock to the Liberal camp if they think Boyle has a better shot at taking out Martiniuk. Another close one to watch.
27/09/03 AL
According to a report on a Metroline Poll in the Guelph Mercury: "The riding of Cambridge is too close to call, with a larger portion of voters undecided (41 per cent) and a dead heat between the Liberal and Conservative candidates."
27/09/03 TM
Wolf will Win in Cambridge. The orange wolf signs are all over the riding. Wolf has won all of the candidate debates and this traditional NDP/PC swing riding will swing back to the NDP.
27/09/03 James Bow
This prediction applies to all ridings in the Region of Waterloo and in County Wellington. The K-W Record ran an opinion poll on this region, and apparently the ONLY seat where the Conservatives have a chance is, apparently, Cambridge. Opinion polls in Cambridge suggest 40% PC, 39% Liberal, 18% NDP. The 18% is the NDP's strongest showing in the region. EVERYWHERE else is Liberal red, by over 50% of the vote, including my Kitchener-Waterloo, which I predicted to stay with Witmer.
25/09/03 Old Bruce Boy
Email: dsimms@arvotek.net
NDP gain here. Manufacturing is big here and people are concerned about Hydro policy. Most see Eves plans as a disaster. The PC negative ad campaign probably hurt the Liberals a bit here but did real severe damage to the PC's.
25/09/03 Craig
I predict this will be an NDP gain by default, simply because the Tories are collapsing once again and the Liberals are not really focusing too much here (likely to finish third) knowing they are making major gains elsewhere. This riding will turn out to be somewhat like Oshawa, where the bookends are the strengths due to the hybrid of corporate and union presence. Also a LOT of NDP resources have been coming here (as the best chance for a pickup between Hamilton and London) and the unions are backing Wolf. Current prediction: Wolf 38%, Martiniuk 32%, Boyle 27%, others 3%.
18/09/03 S.Falkiner
Pam Wolf made a strong showing in the all candidates meeting in Cambridge recently. She knew her stuff and she was the only candidate firmly stating her stance on Southwood. It will be a three way race between all three candidates with Pam Wolf possibly squeaking through. This riding has predominately been a Blue/Orange taker and this time it might return to Orange.
12/09/03 Craig
It appears the Tories have a slight (but within a margin of error) edge here over the NDP (with the Liberals a distant third). Where the Tories go in the polls will decide this riding, which has a significant union base and is definitely the best chance for an NDP pickup between London and Etobicoke. Martiniuk will certainly not win with an absolute majority, and it will likely be close. Pam Wolf might steal Cambridge if the Tories start falling or if the NDP gains more momentum. Current prediction: Martiniuk 40%, Wolf 37%, Boyle 21%, others 2%.
Cambridge is a community of communities i.e. Preston, Galt & Hespeler which speaks to the public supporting the individual they consider more community oriented than big city. The social gospel or moderate social democratic approach worked with former NDP MPP Mike Farnan as will Ms Wolf. Pam's husband is a business man so the team is a good balance. This approach appeals to the small business community. Cambridge is a former NDP town looking for a reason to vote NDP again. Pam Wolf fits the bill. It will be better than a squeaker for Pam as Cambridge is due for a change for change's sake. Her consistent record of supporting the disabled, education & community schools, government driven green energy/alternative energy/public power and fighting for the family business will facilitate fiery debate and a win for the NDP. Affiliations with the Council of Canadians, Labour, Ammesty International and the faith community can only boost Pam's support. Mr. Martinuik is in for a surprise!
Pam Wolf is a very good candidate. She's very active in the community and has as it is made a large contribution to Cambridge. I'm predicting a very close race with the NDP finishing a nose ahead of the tories, between 38-30%. It will be a shock - even to those in Cambridge - but I think it can happen.
16/11/02 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
This'll be a 3-way test. First, whether the blue-collar Harris ReformaTory machine can sustain itself into the Eves era. Second, whether the NDP can lift itself out of its terminal electoral funk and reassert its nominal-opposition dominance in Cambridge (well, it'll *have* to, if it wants to climb back up to 15 or 20 seats, someday). Thirdly, whether the Liberals can build their very poor-2nd place-by-default 1999 finish into something much, much better (which'll probably involve giving the NDP up for dead; in Cambridge, easier said than done?). Who knows. This was an interesting 3-way marginal in '87...
22/10/02 LRAC
Blue-collar town with strong leanings either to the NDP or Tories. Lately, the riding has been held solidly by low-key backbencher Gerry Martiniuk. While not the highest profile member in the legislature, Martiniuk has secured over $100 million in grants, services, and infrastructure to the riding. The Tory association in Cambridge is one of the best-financed in the province and a formidable electoral machine. 1999 saw the once-strong NDP field a star candidate in a local doctor. But true to the decline of the NDP, the strong Dr. Gary Gibson finished a disappointing third. Unless the Tories fall below 28% provincially, Martiniuk should drive up the 401 to Queen's Park quite confidently.

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