Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003


Last Update:
2:00 PM 29/09/2003

Prediction Changed:
25 October 2002

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
Mark Fuller
Progressive Conservative:
Cam Jackson
New Democratic Party:
David Laird
Green Party:

Cam Jackson

Federal MP:
Paddy Torsney

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

29055 62.74%

14220 30.71%

2167 4.68%

432 0.93%

289 0.62%

144 0.31%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality10 675
Paddy Torsney
22 175 46.8%
Don Pennell
11 500 24.3%
Stephen Collinson
11 240 23.7%
Larry McMahon
1 722 3.6%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation69.70%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born78.19%
Ontario Born64.87%
Visible Minority5.05%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$187129

College/Trade School26120

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28/09/03 Tory in Dixie
We know that history doesn't repeat itself in exactly the same way, but even if it was 1987, Cam would still win by at least the 600 vote margin he survived by with back then.
06/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: ericbucholz@hotmail.com
Again, (call him Scam Jackson all you want to), bedrock 905 belt for the Tories. Burlington South not only consistently votes Tory, but often times gives Mr. Jackson one of the biggest margin of victories for any Tory candidate in the province.
30/08/03 WD
Well, when yer wrong, yer wrong. Turns out Osborne ruled in favour of Jackson's expenses after all (boy, is my face red). This doesn't mean he's back in Ernie's good books (because, no matter what Osborne says, Scam tried to hide some of his expenses from the Premier's Office and his personal life is a ticking time bomb, which ultimately is why he was bounced out of cabinet) but it does throw a new wrinkle in the race.
21/08/03 Hootie
The Liberals are not running hard in Burlington. In fact they're not running much at all. Mark Fuller opened up a campaign office in April, closed it in May and has not re-opened one yet. Fuller has not had his name in the Bulington Post since he got the Liberal nomination, six months ago. Nobody I know has received a campaign brochure from the Liberals and I haven't seen Fuller at any of the summer community events in Burlington. I really think if the Liberals thought they had any chance of beating Cam Jackson, they'd be doing something. They aren't and Jackson is going to be re-elected, almost by default.
08/08/03 WD
The Toronto Star reports today that Scam Jackson has asked the Integrity Commissioner to rule on his spending habits. This allows jackson to use the "I've referred the matter to the Integrity Commissioner" line in his defence through the election. This (together with the suspicious movements of political staff at Queen's Park) is another sign the election will be called in the next two weeks. After all, it's a virtual certainty the commissioner will rule Jackson out of line (especially where certain afternoon hotel expenses are concerned) so there is no chance of the report becoming public. If Stockwell's dealings with Osborne are a guide, it will take the Integrity Commissioner over a month to prepare his findings, so Scam is likely hoping the election call will be within weeks. He's probably right. Expect the Liberals to campaign hard in this riding. They smell fear.
20/06/03 Andrew Cox
PC hold. Jackson may have lost much of his lustre, and certainly will never again grace the front benches. Since he secured his nomination, "Scam" has done a very effective job of positioning himself as a maverick within his own party. He has become a dogged critic of his own government, especially on key local issues like the Mid-Penninsula Highway. Combined with the high-incomes and "escape" mentality of arch-suburban Burlington, expect Jackson to be back to abuse his MPP expense account some more. However, I will bet its within 3000 on election night.
31/05/03 Hootie
A Liberal friend of mine told me this week that his party did a poll in Burlington to see if they had any chance of beating Cam Jackson. The poll showed that Cam would win again so the Liberals stopped their candidate search and let young Mark Fuller have the nomination. It all makes sense now.
23/05/03 Craig
It may have been among the largest Tory margins of victory in 1999, but that will disappear, and then some. Even this right-wing area with an unknown Liberal candidate will go Liberal come election day, as the Tory vote here is going to fall apart, and most of the blame will go to Cam Jackson (0 is better than -1 meaning an unknown candidate is better than a corrupt candidate). The NDP won't be a factor, and could finish fifth if the Green Party and the Family Coalition Party have decent showings. Predicted results: LIB 43%, PC 33%, Green 8%, FCP 8%, NDP 4% (fifth, like in Halton!).
23/05/03 WD
Cam Jackson is toast. On the question of fiscal responsibility and trustworthiness, he's got no credibility. On the question of family values -- again, no credibility. Not only has he eaten a lot of steak dinners, he LOOKS like he's eaten a lot of steak dinners. This has been commented on by a number of Tories I know in the riding. They're worried that the Liberals could run a fire hydrant against Jackson and win. They're probably right.
02/05/03 Hootie
Cam Jackson will win Burlington on name recognition alone. The Grit might have had a chance if they had run a better known candidate but they decided to go with Mark Fuller. Nobody knows Fuller and people in Burlington vote for the candidate they are familiar with every time. Don't forget that Burlington is still a very conservative city and that isn't going to change this year.
11/04/03 John Lawrence Reynolds
Burlington is not as Tory blue as many people suppose. True, Jackson has managed to achieve majorities over the years but he was a young, unknown quantity in 1985 and soon after rode the coattails of Mike Harris and the devotion of seniors. But these same seniors have a distaste for his shenanigans, which raise some questions of his value system. Does everyone forget that, in 1991 and 1994 a socialist with the name Mulkewich won election as mayor in this town? Had Walter's health problems not arisen, he would be mayor still, walking away with every contest. The Liberals will have a strong candidate, guided by the political acumen of Eric Cunningham among others. This will be Jackson's last hurrah.
10/04/03 Josef Kunzler
Email: josef_kunzler@hotmail.com
I am incredilous that Scam Jackson got renominated - this is the act of absolute foolishness. It just tells taxpayers that it's okay to rip off several hundred thousands of dollars from them. Expect the Liberals to rip 'em apart on this one and take the seat on the issue of morals & ethics.
04/04/03 Petrol Pete
Email: petrolpete@hotmail.com
Whatever the merits and indiscretions of the incumbent Jackson may be, Burlington is a blue town. It stayed blue through the leanest years of the mid-80's and will stay blue despite the recent gnashing of teeth at PC Headquarters over Jackson's penchant for fine steaks and ritzy hotels. Jackson is also a master at working the seniors, the group most likely to vote and remember the good deed rendered personally rather than the surf and turf courtesy of the taxpayer. Besides many voters who like Cam locally will easily rationalize that Cam simply got his hand caught in the cookie jar and the rest of the gang (politicians of all parties) are still at the table uncorking another bottle of bubbley. Like him or not, you gotta respect Cam as a policital survivor. Jackson with a decreased but still comfortable margin.
31/03/03 Geoff R.
Quite frankly I will be very surprised if Cam Jackson is re-elected given his indiscretions in the past.
14/03/03 Rob D.
Email: robbie_dee@yahoo.com
As I just mentioned in my post on the Halton thread, Cam Jackson has really done some damage to himself and I am frankly surprised to see him standing for reelection here. Further, I think the Family Coalition Party will be a more than trivial factor in races like this one, as social conservatives and other hard-right Tories look to register a protest vote against Eves' perceived abandonment of the CSR. Marco Bianco is the FCP candidate in this riding. OTOH, Burlington's been Tory Blue for a long time and it would take an avalanche to change that.
16/02/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Super-safe: Cam Jackson enjoyed the best provincial PC mandates in both 1990 and 1995. The CSR's psychic wear and tear, however, left a smudge upon the consciences of old-school Lakeshore-belt Tory bluebloods, and the slackening was noticeable in the '99 result (even though it was still a 2:1 PC-over-Lib advantage). And now that the ethics bugaboo has hit Cam Jackson, expect further sinkage, or at least a stronger Liberal target seat than would otherwise be the case. Still, in a riding like Burlington, Tory disaster looms more in terms of a less-than-majority mandate than outright defeat--but that defeat is possible *at all* is a sign that the PCs' salad days are over...
05/11/02 IanB
The revelations over Cam Jackson's funding fracas and his resignation (or firing) from cabinet will have an effect on his percentage, but he will retain the seat for the Tories. Having survived both the 1987 Liberal sweep and the 1990 NDP (semi) sweep, Jackson will stay.
24/10/02 Michael Ensley
Email: mensley@yahoo.com
The main issue in this riding is whether Cam Jackson will run again. If he does he can hold the seat unless the liberals run the Mayor of Burlington who can beat Jackson. Maybe, even more likely is the chance Jackson will not run again and/or the good Mayor will contest the PC nomination

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