Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Brampton West-Mississauga

Last Update:
4:44 PM 07/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
21 October 2002

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
Vic Dhillon
Progressive Conservative:
Tony Clement
New Democratic Party:
Chris Moise
Green Party:
Paul Simas

Tony Clement

Federal MP:
Colleen Beaumier

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

24909 55.87%

16599 37.23%

2824 6.33%

252 0.57%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality23 375
Colleen Beaumier
31 041 66.4%
Hardial Sangha
7 666 16.4%
W. Glenn Harewood
5 957 12.7%
Matt Harsant
1 567 3.4%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation73.80%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born56.55%
Ontario Born49.56%
Visible Minority40.26%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$212405

College/Trade School29375

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01/10/03 Lawn Boy
If you base the election on signs then you've really got to have more understanding of elections. Clement has brand recognition. Dhillon has no experience in politics unless you count badly losing before to Clement. Closer race but Tony takes it. IF the others want experience then they should be more active in the community as a whole.
There are 4 to 1 lawn signs supporting Liberals in this riding. I think this will be a close election and may prove to be a setback for Clement. Demographically this riding has changed and most of the residents in new subdivisions are enthusiatic Liberal supporters with lawn signs supporting Dhillon. Even conservative Mississauga mayor Hazel has criticized Tories and many Mississuaga voters will follow her lead and vote Liberal.
01/10/03 Chris
I spoke too soon in my previous post. I've finally had a candidate to my door. Mr Clement no less. It seems Levi Creek does show up on the radar. I think he'll have an easy time winning, but he won't have my vote. The Libral rep. has taken some time off due to the birth of a son, so I'll forgive him for not showing up at the doorstep. Funny though, there's hardly any lawn signs down here. On my street, just one, and it's NDP. Brampton seems awash with them.
30/09/03 friend
Email: no
I am fan of Tony Clement, but in brampton if joe spina can loose how you think this riding will ramin pc whaere more that 505 voters are immigrant. I am arguing that Tony should not win. Tony's loss will considerable to Ontario. One of the very honest and smart people areound. But if Brampton Centre is going liberal. This riding will definitely go liberal before Brampton cenre.
30/09/03 I M There
If you did attend as I did the debate then you'll conclude that the Liberals and NDP sadly are unable to speak and fumbled over their words. Clement was clear, bold and strong despite the rude crowd.
29/09/03 Chris
TVO's Studio Two had a review of 905/Toronto ministers that could be in trouble this election. They mentioned plenty of other names, but no mention of Clement.
With every day that goes by, it would seem like Tony is going to have to pull off something dramatic to keep his seat. The Liberals seem to have blitzed the riding on the weekend and the red lawn signs are out in pretty big numbers. In most neighbourhoods, Dhillon has Clement out signed by 3 to 1. The "No Private Hospitals" signs aren't actually that far behind what Clement has up. Hard to think thew Guardian endorsement will mean that much. Never would have thought it 3 months ago - but it looks like Dhillon is going to pull off the upset. Actually, it looks like he might even have some breathing room.
29/09/03 observer
Email: no
My prediction is this if over 60% voter come out for vote This Honourable Minister can be at risk. As demographare changed a lot since he got elected last time.
29/09/03 Jassie
It will go to the Liberals. Any body who attended Brampton Board of Trade debate will easly see what kind of reception Tony was getting. First time I seen him nervous and confused when nobody want to listen to him.
28/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
Tony may be in a fight to keep his seat, but the future Premier of Ontario will keep his seat by a very small margin. Even if the Tories don't make up any ground with last minute voter jitters, and the Liberals stay at 48 % in the polls, Clement keeps the seat...barely.
28/09/03 Gerry Kennedy
As admirably as Tony has performed during the crises, he is still very right-wing and a huge target for the Harris haters. He won by 18% last time, true, but 905 is experiencing a shift of, on average, 30%. In addition to this, Dhillon's campaign last time boosted his profile as a more credible candidate this time round and the Sikh link is important. All that said, Clement will prevent this riding from NOT shifting 30%. Ridings like neighbouring Brampton CEntre will shift by more than that. He has a large campaign team (who are paid for being his staff, by the way) that is dependent on him winning and they'll be working very hard. He also is higher profile than last time around. This, however, is both a blessing and a curse as his profile has made people "dislike" him more than, say, David Young. At the end of the day, Clement is in a very similar situation to Young. A senior cabinet minister 12% behind the local trend. Like Young, he will perform better than the local trend due to the factors forementioned. However, I suspect that a GOTV campaign that is not as strong as Young's will lead to his narrow defeat. Prediction...Dhillon=45%/Clement=44%/Moise=9%/Others=2%
26/09/03 Chris
Mississauga News Fri, 26th contained an article about a candidates meeting at the Credit Vally Hospital. "He(Clement) was booed several times for his responses...". Regardless of his SARS performance, he seems to be getting a lot of flack for his handling of the West Nile issue. From a Missassauga resident I haven't seen a single candidate for this and the previous election. Too focused on Brampton I presume. A pox on all their houses.....
26/09/03 Over60
But "JE" you recognise the Guardian and Lorne Drury as extremely partisan - I hope. On the one hand, they said the entire provence is in for a politcal change of direction (indicating a tide) and then, on the other hand, endorsed two out of three local Tories. I hardly think an endorsement from a weekly "paper" that his given away amounts to much. Do you not agree? If they are saying a change, I believe it may effect, even some of the Guardians favourites. At the all candidates debate on Thursday at Brampton Heritage theatre, Health Minister Clement was set upon by a huge crowd of placard carrying protestors who actually shut down Main Street... all about P# hospitals in Ontario (generally) and in Brampton (specifically). Dr. Green from the OMA confronted Tony with a question from the audience and, for the first time, Mr. Calm and Cool actually lost it. It's nice to have loyal backers like Drury but he does not vote in this riding. He lives in Oakville. I am strongly of the belief that Clement's Alliance activities are detracting from his election performance this time. Harris warned him last time. But, alas, Mike is no longer around. Hearing talk around town, it sounds like Tony's shelf date has expired in Brampton. This will stay with Clement regardless of what happens throughout the province. The Brampton Guardian today endorsed Clement..."we feel Bramptonians should be proud of the way Clement has performed during his eight years in office and return him for another term in office."
25/09/03 JE
This will stay with Clement regardless of what happens throughout the province. The Brampton Guardian today endorsed Clement..."we feel Bramptonians should be proud of the way Clement has performed during his eight years in office and return him for another term in office."
24/09/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
I agree that Milhouse Panayi has got profile to burn; but, "too large" a margin? His margin in '99 was *smaller* than Joe Spina's next door! And for that reason, again taking the apparent 905 counter-wave into account, I'll have to withdraw my earlier Tory prediction *here* as well...
24/09/03 S Marshall
This is the only safe Tory seat in Brampton. I am seeing more Clement signs than Dhillon's, and while there is some anger over the P3 hospital, Clement remains popular, partially because he is one of the most visible ministers in Eves' cabinet, and was a leadership candidate. In Brampton Centre and B-M-G-S, it's a different story.
24/09/03 Full Name
Clement will keep this riding, unlike neighbouring Spina. The margin of victory in 1999 is too large, and Clement has too high a profile to fall easily. This is a keeper, even if other Brampton ridings are not.
22/09/03 Over 60
Hard to believe you are calling this riding a PC lock. It definately is not. Dhillon has Clements beat in signs alone by 3 or 4 to one. The riding has almost 48% visible minorties (advantage Dhillon). The anti-private hospital coalitions (unions) filled the Health Minister's riding with "No -P3" signs two months before the election was called and the NDP candidate is a non-starter. Clement's first week of campaign was full of energy with lots of help and then, he suddenly disappeared. In one of the older parts of Brampton, we have been door knocked 3 times by Dhillon's team and have yet to see Clements. Have his helpers been reading the big polls and given up on him. Worst yet for the Health Minister is that he never did have the full support from pink/red Tories in the riding. Bill Davis' old team was only marginally supporting him since he was parachuted in. I think Clements has lost local support due to his lack of rididng interest and seems preoccupied with his Alliance work and his Health Ministry. He no longer benefits from Harris' strong poll draw and is headed for a major crash. Watch this riding change thsi election.
21/09/03 Jan Gill
Tony will have lot of trouble winning this rime. P-3 hospital is causing lot of concern among citizens. Tony could not calm concerns of immigrants becuse his party is trying to win elections by branding immigrants as criminals and terorists by creating fear factor. How he can say he look after immigrants when he is the one who started three month waiting period for OHIP card for new immigrants. He did not even spared poor seniors by charging co payments on drugs.
16/09/03 A
This riding has changed a lot since Tony Clement first won it nine years ago. A majority of residents now are members of visible minorities meaning that Ernie Eves' race-baiting comments linking immigration to crime will not only not play well here but will fuel the flames of an anti-Tory mood. This plus the backlash over Tony Clement's pet project, the new P3 hospital, make it very likely Tony Clement will be one of several surprise casualties on October 2nd. The NDP can't win here but their campaign, which in this riding focusses on the P3 hospital, will help shift people to the Liberal camp. The Toronto Star's statistical profile of the riding says that over 50% of the population is visible minority. This is at variance with the stat EPP cites of 40%. Regardless, there is a large immigrant population which the Tory campaign's anti-immigrant plank has alienated.
09/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: ericbucholz@hotmail.com
I would be surprised if the high profile Health Minister lost his seat. Much less surprising would be the possibility that he runs against Whitmer for the Premier's chair after Eves retires.
09/09/03 Nadine
I agree that the private hospital that he brought to Brampton could play a factor. Not all people of the "905" region are well off and want private for profit healthcare. I do remember Ernie Eves and Tony Clement talking private healthcare before. I think this might backfire on Clement, but he is well known candidate but not everyone votes on candidates in the riding, some vote for the party instead.
29/08/03 Craig
Definitely true. Tony Clement saved his job with his leadership in the SARS crisis, and also made him a strong contender for the next PC leader after the election. The unions in the medical field will probably still give him a slight targeting but I doubt that it will work now, the people here will realize what happened - the unions might want to target other Tory cabinet ministers (and Eves himself). I feel this is now PC for sure, even if they get slaughtered province-wide. Current prediction: Clement 52%, Dhillon 40%, Simas 4%, Moise 3%, others 1%.
20/08/03 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Now that the dust has settled, Tony Clement came off cool and knowledgeable during the SARS crisis...I think this has put him in the driver's seat for re-election and also made him a leading representative in the PC Party's future.
26/05/03 Craig
A rematch of 1999, this time the Liberals are stronger and will close the gap. The nurses and doctors are going to target Clement, but the Liberals don't have a very strong candidate, so the Tories might hold on. It will be a nail-biter as a result. Predicted results: PC 45%, LIB 45% (difference will be decimals), NDP 6%, Green 3%.
12/05/03 IanB
I think his performance during the SARS crisis which was lauded by many has just won Clement his seat in the Legislature and possibly the Tory leadership the next time around.
16/03/03 AL
Nurses are going to target Health Minister Clement the way teachers targeted David Johnson in 1999. Add in the controversial private-public hospital Clement is trying to build in Brampton and the Health Minister is quite possibly going to suffer a major backlash.
16/02/03 M.S.
This one will stay PC in the election. Tony is very high profile across the province, but also locally. And he is one of those MPPs who never stops campaigning, knocking on doors every weekend. It's hard to imagine either the Liberals or NDP would target this riding with a lot of resources when that money and manpower can be better used elsewhere. This seat stays Tory/Tony.
12/11/02 Geneva
Tony may be a strong Cabinet Minister, but the anti PC Backlash will be strong on eday. I predict that Tony's seat may become a casualty of the politcal dogfight to come.
20/10/02 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
The fastest-growing riding in Ontario (doubling btw/1991 and 2001!), the epitome of 905dom-on-steroids, and the airtight electoral machine of Li'l Tony Panayi appears, on the face of things, insurmountable--especially given all the new homeowners assumed to be grateful toward who brought them there. But new homeowners (especially when they're more polyglot than WASP) can be fickle, and given that the Grits are even more formidable here federally than the Tories are provincially, this is terrific symbolic ground to generate an anti-PC backlash. (Premier Eves may be nearby, but so's John Sn'Okie-blen.) Keep in mind that the Liberals didn't do bad with a nothing candidate versus Clement in '99. In the end, Clement's a smooth enough operator to appear safe--but, ominous as this might sound, he ain't nearly as safe as his newfound Liberal MPP/machineman counterpart Greg Sorbara...

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