Algoma-Manitoulin

Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Algoma-Manitoulin

Last Update:
4:42 PM 07/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
15 October 2002

Political Profile:

Candidates:
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Liberal Party:
Mike Brown

Progressive Conservative:
Terry McCucheon

New Democratic Party:
Peter Denley

Green Party:
Ron Yurick

Incumbent:

Michael Brown

Federal MP:

Brent St. Denis

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

Plurality 5519

*MIKE BROWN

14299 44.52%

LYNN WATSON

8780 27.33%

KEITH CURRIE

8617 26.83%

GRAHAM HEARN

425 1.32%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction

Plurality 6 008

Brent St. Denis

15 000 48.4%

Ron Swain

8 992 29%

Grant Buck

4 326 13.9%

Dale Lapham

2 269 7.3%

Demographic Profile:

Population

2001 73398

1996 75120

1991 76253

(1996 census)
Age

0-19 21535

20-39 20230

40-59 19775

60+ 13590

Avg Household Income
$48596

Labour Participation 58.50%

Unemployment 13.90%

Canadian Citizen
98.37%

Canadian Born 93.47%

Ontario Born 81.20%

Immigrant 6.44%

Visible Minority 0.62%

Aboriginal 10.13%

First Language

English 58360

French 10585

Residence

House 84.89%

Apartment 13.05%

Owned 73.26%

Rented 26.74%

Avg Dwelling Value $90129

Education

University 7060

College/Trade School 17470

Secondary 26255

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	01/10/03	GB Email: garth_7ca@yahoo.com
The NDP vote has risen sharply in the last while. Having been involved in Ontario elections in the past (for the NDP), I suspect that this sharp increase (35-50% increase over 2 week period) will be concentrated in ridings where there is no perceived chance of a vote split that would make it likely a Conservative would be elected. This is such a riding. I expect that Algoma-Manitoulin will go NDP tomorrow night.
	01/10/03	kd Email:
On E-2 Hampton went out of his way to press the flesh in Elliot Lake. It is the tour's second visit in 11 days. On Monday, McGuinty's tour breezed by Algoma and went to the Soo. Denley is reported in the Star today as saying "we’re winning in the (local riding) polls . . . It’s close, but we’re ahead." To top it all off, public power is on people's minds again not just because it's cold out, but because on Tuesday, the lights went out yet again! This one is close -- but what NDP gain isn't?
	29/09/03	Dave Email:
Although I no longer live in Algoma-Manitoulin, I was raised there and still have family both on "the island" and in Blind River. This is a huge riding geographically and while both the Tories and NDP may "win" some parts of the riding, Brown will again win overall. He really has to just finish a strong second everywhere to emerge on top. The PC's are strong on the Island where their candidate comes from and has a good family name, however, I must remind the other posters that Brown also "lost" the Island to Tory Joyce Foster in 95 and to NDP Lois Miller in 90 and still was re-elected.My sources tell me that McCutcheon is no where off the island. Denley can be expected to run well in some of the far nothern parts of the riding, but has very little support on Manitoulin, Elliot Lake or Espanola. I predict a Mike Brown victory by 3,000 votes. Just does'nt make sense for any riding to dump a Liberal when they are poised to form a government. Brown has not been very " high profile" at Queens Park but he is a good constit man and with his experience as a deputy,he may very well be the next " Mr. Speaker"
	29/09/03	WM Email:
Jason hasn't been to Elliot Lake in about 4 years, apparently. Brown isn't winning any sign wars in this election - anywhere in the riding.
	21/09/03	Jason Email:
Mike Brown is winning the lawn sign war very handily on the Island and in Elliot Lake and this spells victory in Algoma-Manitoulin for Deputy Speaker Mike Brown
	12/09/03	Craig Email:
Hydro and jobs are dominating in this area. Since the Liberals have been waffling in this riding and the Tories have no chance at all (they will be trying to save their deposit), Peter Denley will take this on the hydro issue (It is a change from a previous position, but hydro is back in the spotlight) and add a fifth NDP voice from Northern Ontario. Other than the likely nailbiter in Nipissing, this is definitely going to be the most exciting contest in Northern Ontario and I think Denley will come out on top. Current prediction: Denley 44%, Brown 38%, McCucheon 15%, others 3%.
	21/07/03	J.S Email: jarrow_crusade1936@hotmail.com
This will be a close race between the Liberals and the NDP, and in my opinion, too close to make an actual prediction. The problem with assuming that this will be an easy Grit hold, becuase ex-PC voters will switch to the Liberals, is the fact that up here ex-PC voters are just as likely to defect to the NDP as the Liberals. To make things even more interesting is the fact that energy prices have soared here as a result of privatisation. And which party opposed privatisation? The NDP. All the above factors reduce the Liberal incumbency factor rather a lot. Its going to be close.
	20/05/03	Grant Email:
With Brown all but absent on the hydro issue, and voter anger rising over outrageous private power costs, Denley stands a great chance to knock him off. Denley is the former Sault Star writer who exposed the draining of Rocky Island Lake by Great Lakes Power and he has a great deal of credibility on the issue of fighting for a public power system.
	15/05/03	Grizz Email:
The PC's are disliked in the north and province wide there is a hankering for a change in government. The new government is likely to be Liberal, so who in their right mind would ditch a sitting Liberal MP in such a case? Some say that the incumbant is not particularly liked, but with the threat of the pc foring a new government the voters are more likely to hold their noses and vote Liberal.
	04/05/03	Email: big-gunner@shaw.ca
According to a recent Ipsos-Reid poll, the PC's stand to be swept out of the north entirely. This region will be an NDP/Liberal race with the Liberals leading (regionally) 35% to the NDP's 33% http://www.angusreid.com/media/dsp_displaypr_cdn.cfm?id_to_view=1796
	01/05/03	Craig Email:
This riding is going to stay Liberal, with an increased margin. Tory support has eroded greatly (they'll be lucky to get more than about 15% this time). The NDP should gain on their 27% last time, but the Liberals will have the turnover from the Tories to increase their own margin, and that will win it for Mike Brown.
	04/04/03	Diane Email:
This riding is definately not going to vote PC, sorry to burst the bubble of the Mark Nyman. FYI Mark Nyman is working on the McCutcheon campaign (notice his email). Mike Brown is a solid constituency politician, I've called him myself on several occasions and he and is office have been very helpful, and I'm sure I'm not alone. Mike Brown will win easily because he gets things done for his constituents. Mike is not on the front page of the paper everyday because he is not like some politicians that run to the media everytime they sneeze but he is still the only candidate that is worthy of a vote. why would anyone vote for a guy with no political experience like McCutcheon or Denley? Who are these guys?
	01/04/03	Mark Nyman Email: info@northernpc.com
The electorate of the Algoma-Manitoulin riding are clearly looking for change within it's communities. Mike Brown has done what? Is the most common question that communities are raising. The below Liberal commentators clearly earmarked Brown as being 'Low Key' which interprets being 'inactive', something that liberal Mike Brown is good at. Northerners are clearly going to support Terry McCutcheon the Ontario PC candidate in the next election. The NDP are way OUT, they fumbled the province further into debt, and ignored a good portion of their northern communites that supported them for years. Brown was the only alternative for this riding at the time. My prediction is very easy to absorb, Brown is not a colour that the majority likes. Blue skies are up ahead. An Ontario PC win is going to happen.
	17/03/03	Christopher J. Currie Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
Mike Brown's dominance over the eastern part of this riding should be enough to secure him an easy re-election. The NDP will poll well in the Wawa/Hornpayne region (they always do), and in some areas near Sault Ste. Marie -- it won't really matter this time around, though. This was expected to be a close race in '99; it wasn't, and there's no reason to think that it will be any different this time. As to Mike Brown's personal standing -- he may be low-profile, but he's a good bet to become the next Speaker, if the Liberals win.
	27/02/03	Dave Email:
Mark this a hold for the Liberals. Incumbency is huge in these large rural ridings,where only Brown will have name recognition throughout. Brown has worked hard to travel to all parts of the riding regularily.First elected in 1987 and reelected ever since,Brown has the team and resources to mount a solid campaign.The NDP and Tories have nominated poorly, in my opinion, Im a resident of this riding and Ive never heard of either guy before.The Tory choice of McCutcheon is laughable.No political experience what so ever, and even if as a fellow Manitoulin Islander he cuts into Brown a bit there , Brown will clobber him in Elliot Lake and Espanola and Blind River. Remember that after redistribution with the merger of Browns' and Wildmans' ridings, Bud ran away from the fight and retired rather than face an inevitable loss to Brown.
	24/02/03	SM Email:
Peter Denley has won the NDP nomination in Algoma-Manitoulin. He used to have a regular in the Sault Star (which is circulated all trhoughout Algoma), and is fairly popular. It could be close, but I think Denley will come out on top.
	04/02/03	Neil J. Email:
Being a Northerner, I believe Algoma-Manitoulin will go Liberal again but it could be somewhat closer. The NDP will target the riding and will likely do better here than in the 1999 election.
	05/12/02	SM Email:
This is my own riding. As has been said, Mike Brown is not exactly a household name here. There's very little contact with constituents (provided you're not a card-carrying Liberal. I was at a time, and that's the only reason I could pick the man out of a crowd), and he's never in the media. The successful NDP issue-based campaigns (Hydro, Water) and their ability to really differentiate themselves from the PC/Liberals, as well as other factors already mentioned by other predictors (region hard hit by energy prices, etc.), I imagine this one will be an upset to the Liberals.
	26/11/02	ATGS Email:
Likely to be an NDP target as a their best chance to pick up another seat in the North -- if the NDP can maintain their rise in the polls, nominate a strong candidate and run a solid central campaign, they will pick up this seat.
	16/10/02	A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Though Mike Brown has always been low-profile as Grits go. Moreover, this is certain to be a top-rank NDP target, thanks to past electoral history (much of A-M was once Bud Wildman's fiefdom, and A-M scored the NDP's best non-incumbent result and one of only two non-incumbent second-place finishes in 1999). And Howard Hampton's Hydro campaigning ought to play well in a constituency hard-hit by soaring energy prices...
	14/10/02	C.H. Email:
Mike Brown won quite handily in 1999 after redistribution of the boundaries, Brown has worked hard in the newly acquired parts of Algoma-Manitoulin and will win quite handily.

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