Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Ceredigion

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
David Grace
 Conservative Party:
Paul W. Davies
 Liberal Democratic Party:
Mark F. Williams
Plaid Cymru:
Simon Thomas

Incumbent:
 Simon Thomas

97 Result:
 Robert Harris
9,76724.3%
 Felix Aubel
5,98314.9%
 Dai Davies
6,61616.5%
 Cynog Dafis
1672841.63%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
40,18673.90%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
7,88918.6%
10,17824.0%
11,25126.5%
13,14431.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
42,46278.0%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1618.7%
16-2411.3%
25-3918.8%
40-6528.4%
65 <22.9%

Ethnic Origin:
White98.7%
Black0.2%
Indian/Pakistani0.3%
Other non-white0.8%

Employment:
Full Time49.0%
Part Time13.8%
Self Employed27.2%
Government Schemes2.4%
Unemployed7.6%

Household SEG:
I - Professional7.4%
II - Managerial/Technical36.6%
III - Skilled (non-manual)12.3%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)23.9%
IV - Partly Skilled11.1%
V - Unskilled5.7%

Misc:
Own Residence72.5%
Rent Residence25.2%
Own Car(s)76.5%
Submissions
Submit Information here
21/04/01 JR Email:robertsat13@cwcom.net
This was once a Liberal stronghold - a Liberal seat at a time when only five or six other constituencies in Britain were held by that party. However, an earthquake happened, with Plaid Cymru's Cynog Dafis coming through from fourth place to oust the popular welsh speaker Geraint Howells who had held the seat since 1974. The LibDems had an opportunity to sneak it back last year when Dafis resigned after being elected to the National Assembly, but Plaid's Simon Thomas beat the LDs by two-to-one. Labour, who ran a good second in 97, faded to fourth place. PC will capitalise on rural discontent, and in their new 'socialist' guise, on deprivation in the now shabby seaside town of Aberystwyth.
 03/05/01 sb Email:
The Liberals have remembered how to campaign in rural Wales; their by-election candidate who pushed them up into 2nd place has now moved to the seat and is fighting to win. There is a Labour vote which is available to be squeezed. Plaid may seem to have Aberystwyth sewn up for now but they were surprised by their poor showing in the rural areas in the by-election and may have taken people for granted once too often. Few seats in the UK have a better record since 1945 of returning Liberals to parliament (neighbouring Montgomery is one) and it may return to the fold this time.
 07/05/01 Harry Hayfield Email:harry@hhayfield.fsnet.co.uk
Ceredigion will be a Liberal Democrat gain in June 2001, for the following reasons The Conservative Party have not won the seat since 1870 If the Labour Party cannot win the seat in an electoral landslide like 1997, when can they win Plaid Cymru are more interested in the National Assembly
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Updated 9 May 2001
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