Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Taunton

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Andrew Govier
Conservative Party:
Adrian J. Flook
Liberal Democratic Party:
Jacqueline M. Ballard

Incumbent:
Mrs Jackie Ballard

97 Result:
Elizabeth Lisgo
8,24813.5%
David Nicholson
23,62138.7%
Jackie Ballard
26,06442.7%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
61,01176.47%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
8,15112.7%
29,57646.0%
26,24040.8%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
64,24682.3%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1618.8%
16-2411.8%
25-3919.7%
40-6527.3%
65 <22.4%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.3%
Black0.1%
Indian/Pakistani0.1%
Other non-white0.4%

Employment:
Full Time58.8%
Part Time17.8%
Self Employed15.2%
Government Schemes1.2%
Unemployed7.1%

Household SEG:
I - Professional5.8%
II - Managerial/Technical35.1%
III - Skilled (non-manual)14.7%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)24.8%
IV - Partly Skilled12.0%
V - Unskilled5.4%

Misc:
Own Residence69.2%
Rent Residence28.4%
Own Car(s)76.1%
Submissions
Submit Information here

12/04/01 NG Email:
It was a bit of a shock for the Tories when Jackie Ballard won this formerly true-blue seat in 1997. Ballard has since succeeded in building up a strong and popular local profile. However, she faces a real uphill challenge. The Lib Dems were flattened in the 1999 European Elections and lost majority control of Taunton Deane Borough Council a month before that. Things are not looking all that rosy and Ballard's chances of holding the seat depend largely on squeezing the Labour vote sufficiently to ward off a Tory revival. A complex mixture of town and country, Taunton is just too close to call.
19/04/01 Christopher J. Currie Email:8cjc1@qlink.queens.ca
I'm going a bit out on a limb with this one, but ... given that the Tories managed to lose a rural seat to the LibDems last year, on what was otherwise one of their best days, I'm tempted to think that the same pattern may be repeated in a number of seats this year. And that Taunton may stay LibDem, as a result. Hopefully, Labour voters in ridings like this are sensible enough to realize where their votes can be most useful.
03/05/01 Sean Fear Email:fear_sean@hotmail.com
Why should Labour voters automatically vote to keep a Liberal Democrat in office? Plenty of Labour supporters detest the Lib Dems. Local elections, the European Elections, and regional polls all point to big drop in the Liberal Democrat vote in the South West, and I don't see them holding this one.

Submit Information here
Back to South West Index
Back to British General Election Prediction Index
Last Updated 6 June 2001
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© 1999-2001 Milton Chan

Email Webmaster