Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Warrington South

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Helen A. Southworth
Conservative Party:
Caroline Mosley
Liberal Democratic Party:
Roger Barlow

Incumbent:
Ms Helen Southworth

97 Result:
Helen Southworth
28,72152.1%
Christopher Graylin
17,91432.5%
Peter Walker
7,19913.1%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
55,08276.23%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
22,94540.8%
25,69845.7%
7,31613.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
56,24981.1%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.6%
16-2412.7%
25-3921.8%
40-6529.0%
65 <16.8%

Ethnic Origin:
White98.6%
Black0.2%
Indian/Pakistani0.7%
Other non-white0.5%

Employment:
Full Time65.9%
Part Time16.9%
Self Employed9.0%
Government Schemes1.2%
Unemployed7.1%

Household SEG:
I - Professional8.5%
II - Managerial/Technical32.7%
III - Skilled (non-manual)14.4%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)28.0%
IV - Partly Skilled11.8%
V - Unskilled2.9%

Misc:
Own Residence79.2%
Rent Residence19.6%
Own Car(s)75.0%
Submissions
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01/06/01 JR Email:
This seat was held in the early and mid eighties with healthy majorities by Mark Carlisle, Education Secretary in the first Thatcher cabinet. However, the North West of England didn't look on the Tories quite as favourably as much of the rest of the country did and in 1992 Labour ousted Carlisle's successor, the one-term Tory MP Chris Butler (albeit by a majority of just 191). Boundary changes in the mid 90s were expected to give the seat back to the Tories, and Labour MP Mike Hall moved on to the newly created Labour safe seat of Weaver Vale in time for Election 97. However, the Labour landslide carried new candidate Helen Southworth to an 11000 vote victory. Southworth stands a good chance of repeating this result next week. This is a growing constituency with much new-build, middle-income private housing. Although Warrington is a historical industrial town, with its rapid growth it has come to share the characteristics of many of the 'New Towns' which have looked so favourably on Tony Blair and New Labour.

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Last Updated 1 June 2001
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