Election Prediction Project
British General Election
Northampton South

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
Anthony R. Clark
Conservative Party:
Shailesh S. Vara
Liberal Democratic Party:
Andrew Simpson
UK Independence Party:
Derek R. Clark

Tony Clark

97 Result:
Tony Clark
Michael Morris
Tony Worgan
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:
< 1620.8%
65 <16.6%

Ethnic Origin:
Other non-white1.2%

Full Time67.0%
Part Time15.1%
Self Employed10.4%
Government Schemes0.6%

Household SEG:
I - Professional6.4%
II - Managerial/Technical32.7%
III - Skilled (non-manual)14.0%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)28.2%
IV - Partly Skilled12.8%
V - Unskilled4.4%

Own Residence73.6%
Rent Residence24.9%
Own Car(s)72.6%
Submit Information here

08/05/01 JR Email:
This is likely to be one of a very, very small number of Tory gains on election night. The Tories have avoided the usual pitfall of shipping an investment banker in from London and have chosen a local candidate, Shailesh Vara. The fact that Vara is Asian means that the Tories will pour central resources in here, which will help deflect allegations of racism that have been directed against them recently. The Tories are talking up Vara as one to watch for the future - moderate backbencher Peter Bottomley described him as a possibility to become the first ever asian PM. Labour incumbent Tony Clarke got into hot water for being caught telling a journalist off the record that he expected to outperform Labour's national vote, as the 'racist element' would turn out and vote for him.
11/05/01 JW Email:
The information about Shailesh Vara is incorrect. He is not a local candidate (indeed, he is the only major party candidate who does not live in Northampton South). He has been described in the local press as a "Commercial solicitor for an international firm in the City of London". The local press also referred to him being "parachuted in" (see quote below). A fifth candidate has been announced, Clare Johnson of the Prolife Alliance. Please note that the sitting member's name is Clarke (with an "e").
13/05/01 JR Email:
Sorry about the incorrect information here guys - I stand corrected. Nevertheless this is one of the softest of soft targets for the Tories and they will be putting in loads of effort here for the reasons stated, and should just about pull it off.
03/06/01 Robbie Email:casual_craggo@hotmail.com
I reckon JR is right here. Tory gain. Having high profile figures like Hague and Thatcher rousing the troops in what should be a tory constituency will get the old dears out voting for Vara. The Labour candidates references to Vara being "the wrong sort of Asian" wont really help the Labour campaign and the tories can hardly be accused of being racsists here. Vara is a very tallented candidate and there is talk of him becoming PM one day. This should be a tory gain.

Submit Information here
Back to Midlands Index
Back to British General Election Prediction Index
Last Updated 4 June 2001
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© 1999-2001 Milton Chan

Email Webmaster