Election Prediction Project
British General Election
North Shropshire

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
Michael Ion
Conservative Party:
Owen W. Paterson
Liberal Democratic Party:
Ben Jephcott
UK Independence Party:
David Trevanion

Owen Paterson

97 Result:
Ian Lucas
Owen Patterson
John Stevens
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:
< 1619.3%
65 <20.2%

Ethnic Origin:
Other non-white0.2%

Full Time57.7%
Part Time16.5%
Self Employed18.0%
Government Schemes1.5%

Household SEG:
I - Professional5.4%
II - Managerial/Technical31.1%
III - Skilled (non-manual)9.8%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)28.4%
IV - Partly Skilled16.9%
V - Unskilled5.3%

Own Residence69.8%
Rent Residence25.9%
Own Car(s)77.4%
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05/05/01 GRF Email:
Labour candidate Mike Ion will gain the seat by about 1500 votes. This will because of the relative increase in the Labour vote, and the increase in tactical voting by Liberal Democrats ( which did not happen in 1997, Lib Dems polled over 10000 votes in distant third place). Also the unpopular Right wing views of the current Conservative M.P. oWEN pATERSON WILL DRIVE NON TORY VOTERS BEHIND ONE CANDIDATE.
08/05/01 Sean Fear Email:fear_sean@hotmail.com
A Labour victory here is highly unlikely. Tactical voting will be less of a feature in this election than the previous one, because there is not the same desire to remove an unpopular government. The Conservatives can expect to poll fairly well across rural England in this election, and should hold this seat without too much difficulty.
13/05/01 P.B. Email:
I totally agree with GRF. Tactical voting will play an important part in this seat, however the main difference between this election and 1997 is that this time the voters who tactically voted for the Liberals last time will now know that the only party who can beat the tories in North Shropshire is Labour and Mike Ion. They will hopefully put their vote behind Mike Ion. With the Liberals only polling 10,400 votes last time including the votes which were tactically polled for them Mike Ion only needs 1 in 5 of those voters to cast their vote for him and we get rid of the Tory from North Shropshire.
14/05/01 Disraeli Email:
In 1997 twenty percent of voters suggested they liked both Labour and the Liberal Democrats, in 2001 this is barely one in ten according to a recent survey by the British Election Panel. Tactical voting will not play an important part in this election - furthermore, rural areas are indefinitely going to support the Conservatives after Labour's meddling over the issue of hunting and their handling of the Foot & Mouth Disease. It might be a close-run contest, though it is unlikely either Labour or the Liberal Democrats will gain the seat. Likely to remain a Tory hold.
15/05/01 TAS Email:
Labour will gain this seat from the conservatives by about 1500- 2000 votes the reasons for this are listed below.
1. As PB said in 1997 there was a lot of misplaced tactical votes by Labour voters to the Liberal Democrats. This was due to the narrow lead that the Lib Dems had over Labour at the 1992 election. All of these Tactical votes will come back to Labour (possibly up to 1500 votes).
2. Also the Lib Dems know that their candidate cannot win this seat. It was their relativly high vote (10500 votes) in third place that cost labou the seat four years ago. It is well known that according to opinion polls in various newspapers up to a quarter of Lib Dem voters will be prepared to vote tacticly to stop the conservative candidate winning ( in this case about 2500 votes).
3. Their will also be people who were still too scared to vote labour at the last election because they thought that it would return to the seventies all over again i.e. strikes, wage revolts, winter of discontent etc. This myth has been finally put to rest due to outstanding premiership of TONY BLAIR and the economic handling of GORDON BROWN.
4. Finally the people of north shropshire will be fed up of the upmost arrogance of their M.P. OWEN PATERSON. This is because he cannot be bothered to spend time in his own constituency during the campaign. Instead he is helping ALBIE "HANDGUN" FOX (YNYS MON), JACOB "NANNYS BOY" REES MOGG (THE WREKIN), AND ANTHEA "LOSER" MACINTYRE (SHREWSBURY AND ATCHAM).

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Last Updated 7 June 2001
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