1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Scarborough-Agincourt

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Candidates:
Liberal Party:
Gerry Phillips MPP
Progressive Conservative Party:
Jim Brown MPP
New Democratic Party:
Bob Frankford
Green Party:
Gary Carmichael
Natural Law Party:
Ken Morgan
Independent:
Wayne Cook

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Scarborough Agincourt (100%):
Gerry Phillips
Scarborough Ellesmere (15%):
Marilyn Mushinski

Member of Parliament:
Jim Karygiannis

Surrounding Ridings:
Markham
Don Valley East
Scarborough Centre
Scarborough-Rouge River
Willowdale

Misc:
Population: 107 373
Avg Household Income 53 476
Language (Home)
English 62 605
Chinese 18 475
Submitted Information
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02/24/99 Email: 3arb@qlink.queensu.ca
This is yet another riding I used to live in and is traditionally a bellweather riding. Further, Jim Brown has been an embarassment as an MPP with even Mike Harris distancing himself. Gerry Phillips will be the likely victor.
03/22/99 Choppo Email:
I live in this riding and at the very least I would say it is too close to call. Jim Brown is the first high profile candidate that Philips has ever run against and he will have his work cut out for him. Philips has had had little opposition for the past three elections and this time around he will technically be running against another incumbant (Brown). If Phillips runs a complacent campaign and is overly optimistic, then Brown stands a good chance of an upset.
03/25/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Jim Brown's profile might be "high", but given his law-and-order extremism and his "Santa Claus Parade" gaffe, not in what many would call a flattering way. Furthermore, Brown reluctantly parachuted himself into Scarborough-Agincourt after the Dan Newman machine squeezed him out of the Scarborough SW nomination--and there's a world of political-culture difference between those extremities of Scarborough. And finally, if Brown's profile is high, Gerry Phillips' is higher--remember that he was the frontrunner for the Liberal leadership after Lyn McLeod stepped down. The bigger problem Phillips faces might be the health problems that prevented him from pursuing the leadership, but I doubt that'll noticeably impede his chances. Phillips should remain vigilant, as the PCs came within 10 points of him last time; but it remains from all appearances a Jim Brown suicide run.
04/16/99 Peter Dawson Email:
I think it will be Jim Brown in an upset, nail-biter by under 100 votes. Gerry Phillips will be dealt the same hand as Anne Swarbrick, another sure winner in a safe-riding.
05/17/99 Toronto Star Email:
High-profile MPPs battle for votes by Vanessa Lu
05/29/99 A.S> Email: adma@interlog.com
Probably still Phillips, but a much stranger race than anyone counted on, because it covers all three corners of Scarberia, so to speak--Phillips from the NW extremity, Brown from the SW eatremity, and the NDP's Dr. Bob Frankford, former MPP for Scarborough East! (And with Wayne Cook thrown in as the jester.) Funny, too, how both Brown and Frankford came here after being rejected by their parties in their old turf. Frankford's kaput, which leaves Jim Brown, with the populist "Taxfighter" message on his signs (reminiscent of Phillips' '95 PC opponent Keith McNab's "Taxes kill jobs and hope!") If McGuinty's debate performance sinks Gerry Phillips, it'll be a Liberal tragedy of sorts; but because the Grits have more at stake here than the PCs, I'm betting that it won't.
06/01/99 A.S Email: adma@interlog.com
I'll betcha someone else'll say this, but what's sealed this in the bag for Gerry The P is that the cop-loving fishwrap known as the Toronto Sun has endorsed *him* over the most cop-loving Toronto Tory MPP of them all...who'd a thunk it...

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Last Updated 1st June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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