Election Prediction Project

Introduction to Methodology

Introduction to Methodology

Election Prediction Project attempt to predict the result of elections, through:

  • Making prediction of the overall result of an election by predicting the result of individual electoral districts.
  • Making prediction of the result of individual electoral districts through analysis of factual information and punditry specific to the electoral districts.
The project solicits information and opinion submission from the general public prior to an election. You may contribute your insights to a specific electoral district through submission forms for specific elections. (Current Project: Ontario, Quebec) Only submissions addressing a specific electoral district will be posted on the website.

Election Prediction Project has only conducted prediction on parliamentary elections, where formations of executive/government are based on gaining control of the legislature. There is currently no plan to conduct predictions on elections that generate separate legislative and executive powers, such as the US congressional/presidential elections, or municipal elections.

Evaluation Process

Submissions are collected, processed, and posted on a regular basis (more "regular" during writ period, and understandably as most of us are university students, less during university exam period). The evaluation panel, consists of individuals from various locations, exchanges their analysis on the submissions and concludes with a prediction.

The evaluation process is entirely subjective. Members of the evaluation panel have very different political background and often disagree. Predictions are undoubtedly influenced by panelists' specific insights, experiences, or biases about particular contests. However, we strive to come up with predictions that are most sensible as we see them.

The panel gives consideration for the following:

  • Integrity of the source - More weight are given to submissions with more information about the author, and particularly those where real names and email address are posted. (Please kindly report any non-functional email addresses posted so that we may correctly evaluated the postings in question.)
  • Objectivity of the source (1) - Less weight is given to submissions from a particular participant who demonstrated consistent bias. Submissions from individuals that demonstrated clear political motive or blatant bias are generally ignored.
  • Objectivity of the source (2) - Obviously, special treatment is given to submissions from individual who are politically related, such as political staffers, party organizers, student/union leaders or government employees. This in no way discourages you to submit and identify yourself as such. We always appreciate insider tips.
  • Quality of the posting (1) - Weight is given to submissions that are backed by intelligent and thoughtful reasons. Detailed reasons provide others viewing the site with evidence to back up your claim.
  • Quality of the posting (2) - Malicious, inaccurate, slanderous or misleading information are generally ignored, and will seriously reduce the weight given to other submissions from the source in question. Some members of the project have a particular tendency of appending satirical and sometimes demeaning "Editor Notes" to submissions that are just plain ignorant or obviously out of touch with the reality.
  • General trends - The panelists are all politically minded individuals who pay close attentions to news and issues. We also share polling information and gossips, which may influence the prediction.
Submission Filtering

A submission must be accompanied by some reason. In some cases, the situation may be obviously and very little need to be said. Reasons do not have to be complicated, elaborated, or come in wholesale quantity, but they must be present. Simply telling us who you think will win will not get your posting on the site.

Overt political advertisements posted as submission are not accepted. (We do, however, offer various sponsorship options that allow candidates to place an explicit advertisement.) Comments urging viewers to vote a certain a way are edited out. However, we are generally tolerant (i.e. we will post them, but give very little weight to them) if predictions are supported by relevant information and phrased as such, even if they are bias.

Personal endorsements or appeals for particular candidates are also censored. (e.g. "Joe Smith is the best choice for Wisconsin South. Vote Smith!") Election Prediction project is not intended to be a forum for campaign workers to preach their gospels. However, you may wish to phrase your submission in a way that analysis the candidates and conclude that one candidate is more appealing to the voters of the particular riding than the others because of the result of the analysis.

Further, the fundamental principle of Election Prediction Project is district-by-district analysis. We are not interested in partisan assessments for the platforms of political parties unless particular issues will impact certain ridings specifically. Statements such as "The Rhino Party has the best ideas" and "The Republican Party deserve to be elected" will not be posted.

If you are uncomfortable being identified, even privately, please leave the Name and Display field empty, or use a consistent code-name/handle. The project takes active steps to detect and to block any attempts to create false impression of trends through mass submission with false names. Repeated submission generated from the same source under different names will be disregarded.


Election Prediction Project aims to uphold both the spirit of freedom of expression, and the spirit of truthful and open exchange.

We are committed to correct any false, malicious, slanderous or misleading postings intending to damage the integrity of individuals or organizations. This will be done through either removing the postings in question, appending a correction in reference to the posting, or both. Misleading and inaccurate submissions will be accompanied with corrections and will not be considered.

We welcome any suggestions, and we gladly accept emails notifying us any errors, both technical and informational, on the website. We will consider any request to withdraw a submission, however we reserve the right to keep the posting. We will remove name and email of the source upon request, as long as email address was provided in the initial submission.

General comments and complaints can be made to election@electionprediction.org. Complaints of urgent nature can be direct to the chair of the project at milton@electionprediction.com.


Members of the Election Prediction Project and the project as a whole do not endorse or accept any responsibility for the opinion expressed and information posted. Election Prediction Project reserves the rights to edit, amend, and censor any information posted in this website.

Last Updated: 25 February 2003
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