Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Scarborough Southwest

Prediction Changed
2022-06-01 02:47:00

Constituency Profile



Begum, Doly

Brideau, Cara

Everatt, Barbara

Mcnair, James

Naus, Peter

Parsons, Michelle

Patel, Lisa

Snider, Bret

Doly Begum

Population (2016):

Population (2011):106733

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

18,123 49.93%
7,611 20.97%
8,555 23.57%
1,476 4.07%
OTHERS 530 1.46%
Total Transposed 36,295
      Component Riding(s)

Scarborough Southwest
(93.49% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

(6.51% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Bill Blair **
Kimberly Fawcett Smith
Keith McCrady
Amanda Cain
Italo Eratostene
Simon Luisi

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Bill Blair
Dan Harris **
Roshan Nallaratnam
Tommy Taylor


31/05/2022 Chris N
I'm moving my initial prediction of "Too Close to Call" to the NDP. I suspect strategic voting is not as much of a phenomenon in inner-suburb-ethnoburb type ridings like Scarborough Southwest. As a result, I suspect Doly Begum's name recognition and incumbency will be just enough to keep this seat orange.
30/05/2022 Tony Ducey
With a Ford victory looking close to certain certain right now on June 2 certain seats that are in opposition now could come into play, this is 1 of them. I expect a close battle between the NDP and PC's but Doly should edge out the PC candidate.
19/05/2022 LongTimeReaderSecondTimeSubmitter
Not sure why, because she's been a good MPP and is a strong candidate, but Doly is falling way behind both the Liberals and Conservatives in signs, word of mouth, and my own personal "gut feel"... which I admit means very little :)
I'm not sure who will win, but unless the NDP can turn this around (fingers crossed) it looks like it will be one of the other two.
17/05/2022 Not Non-Partisan
Bret Snider, who is a longtime columnist for the Bluffs Monitor, is a very good experienced candidate (he ran in Toronto Danforth a while back). He has a very professional campaign team led by former City Councillor Rob Davis. It isnt surprising that Ipolitics, which has done the only polling Ive seen here has Snider 5% ahead. With Ford on cruise control, ridings like Scarborough Southwest come into play.
05/05/2022 Ontario Voter
Doly Begum has been a strong local MPP for this area and has been relatively popular in the community. The NDP is running a very strong campaign so far in this area. They by far have the most signs in residential areas compared to the other parties. While it early in the campaign I think that if the polling numbers hold as they are today with the NDP and Liberals within a few points of each other in the mid 20s the NDP would still win this riding.
01/05/2022 R.O.
Its true this riding had a ndp mp federally in 2011 then riding went liberal in 2015 when Bill Blair first elected. But different circumstances , liberals had a celebrity leader and star candidate in this riding and were polling much higher in Ontario that year. Del Duca isnt that well known and Ford has always been more popular in Scarborough than downtown Toronto. The provincial ndp also seems to have more staying power and held a lot of the seats theyve won when mpp up for re election. Although not entirely clear what will happen here. pcs have a new candidate Bret Snider but unable to find out much about him so wouldnt appear they were focusing much on this riding.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
Doly Begum has impressed in her first term, but with flagging NDP poll numbers and the Liberals continually on the rise, I think she'll be swept out as well.
30/03/22 A.S.
I'm on the border; but this actually looks good for the NDP; Doly Begum did have riding history going for her, but she ran a powerhouse campaign that was an archetype of how '18's Orange Wave came to be, and she's been a powerhouse in caucus ever since in a way that shows she's in it for keeps. (Like most of Toronto's NDP representation, in fact--even in Jill Andrew situations where "for keeps" is a dicey proposition.) And frankly, compared to those NDP/Lib mutual-cancellation cases, this looks to be a case where the Libs and PCs are plausibly in mutual cancellation, instead.
20/03/22 R.O.
Doly Begum was first elected here in 2018 and beat long time liberal mpp Lorenzo Berardinetti that year. This riding has been ndp before so it wasn?€™t a total surprise they won here , it went ndp federally in 2011 and Scarborough had ndp mpp?€™s decades ago in 1990. But still somewhat of a swing riding it had been pc when they were in power in the 90?€™s and flipped liberal in 2003 when they won. Unclear who the new pc candidate is and liberals running Lisa Patel.
03/10/21 Cal MacKinnon
As an organizer Begum has worked this riding. She has a big head start over anyone. She?€™ll need a 3 way race, Andrea Horwath delivering one more time and the $. It?€™s not hard to see it all come together.
10/07/21 Chris N
The NDP won this riding last election for the first time since 1990. Doly Begum is an impressive young MPP, but I anticipate she will have tougher competition in 2022 from both the Liberals and PCs. The Liberals and PCs have not yet nominated a candidate.

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