Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2021-06-30 17:45:00

Constituency Profile



Boulding, Dean

Clarke, Kevin

Day, Opa Hope

Hunter, Mitzie

Javier, Veronica

Moore, William

Vianga, Alicia

Mitzie Hunter

Population (2016):

Population (2011):101914

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

16,154 50.35%
8,964 27.94%
5,448 16.98%
902 2.81%
OTHERS 614 1.91%
Total Transposed 32,082
      Component Riding(s)

(88.24% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Scarborough Centre
(11.76% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

John McKay **
Quintus Thuraisingham
Michelle Spencer
Tara McMahon
Jigna Jani
Kevin Clarke
Gus Stefanis
Stephen Abara
Kathleen Marie Holding
Farhan Alvi

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

John McKay **
Chuck Konkel
Laura Casselman
Kathleen Holding
Kevin Clarke
Paul Coulbeck


01/06/2022 prog15
All of Scarborough is an example of a section of multiethnic federal Lib voters supporting Ontario PC to an extent that makes Ford government reelection (conditionally) the likeliest outcome - federal immigration interests might be to blame. PCs have four ridings with good chances of reelection (and not only traditionally more conservative Agincourt). There is little incentive for voters here to stay with a Lib candidate who unlike A.S. assertion, has a huge baggage of woke education agenda at a time when those same multiethnic voters are very concerned of indoctrinating education, on gender and many other issues. With the many bridges Ford government built with ethnic communities, voting for a Lib from a party that failed in its election campaign is not a clear choice. I think it is more of a three-way race in Guildwood, but PCs have an advantage of building strong base in the area and increasing support in the past four years. This will be close, but the likeliest call should be for the PCs.
01/06/2022 Bluffer72
This race has the potential to be a lot closer than many people suspect. The PCs virtually won (if not in reality) what was considered to be one of the safest Liberal seats in the province (and, federally, in the country). The NDP has done well here in a few elections (notably in 2011 at the federal level during the so-called "Orange Wave" and the last provincial election) without having a particularly visible candidate or much of a ground game. This time around, NDP orange signs dot the riding, and even NDP federal leader Jag(meet) Singh reared his head for a day with the local candidate. Doug Ford and Caroline Mulroney have also showed up in the riding showing that the PCs think they can swing this. It will all come down to the NDP. If that increased visibility from the NDP pays off even a little, then Mitzie loses. It'll be interesting see what happens on Thursday night.
29/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Ford may be on cruise control and should win a 2nd term on Thursday but I do expect the Liberals to make some gains on June 2 and retain most of their current seats, that includes here. Maybe Mitzie Hunter could run for Liberal leader again if Del Duca resigns as Liberal leader.
17/05/2022 Not Non-Partisan
With Ford on cruise control, its going to be pretty much a clean sweep in Scarborough. The Beaver Cleaverland of Guildwood personifies the Ford Nation. Its surprising the PCs didnt win in 2018, theyll finish the job in 22.
12/05/2022 Kevin
I think Mitzie Hunter despite vandalism of her signs will win the Riding by 5000-6000 votes. She has worked hard and has good constituency workers.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
This one stayed with the Liberals in their 2018 wipeout, and with they're polling numbers restored somewhat, they're unlikely to lose it.
23/04/22 Colin O'Neal
As noted by others, Mitzie Hunter's photo-finish win in the last election during the worst LPO campaign in a generation suggests that she will get re-elected in 2022.
30/03/22 A.S.
Other than PC inside-baseball matters, what kind of "baggage" does Mitzie Hunter carry, really? I'd assume her prevailing against all odds in '18 is a mark of her transcending any such baggage. Of course, w/a margin like that, the PCs will target it; but voters aren't necessarily sympathetic to what they might see as an "electoral entitlement" complex--and besides, there's always the likelihood of their battling to mutual self-cancellation, given how the NDP came within 6 points of the top w/a virtual non-campaign last time. Still, it's interesting how in '18, the race played out like a Scarberia-ethnoburban version of Obama/Trump vs Romney/Clinton: the hitherto "Lib-leaning" N part going Tory, and the hitherto "Tory-friendly" S part going Liberal (and the NDP racking up a whole slew of 2nds and near-2nds to either party).
14/03/22 R.O.
Mitzie Hunter was first elected in a 2013 by election which was fairly close then re elected in 2014 by a large margin and 2018 also a close race in this riding . new pc candidate this election Alicia Vianga and not sure who the ndp will run here. its possible this riding competitive again but do sense its a liberal hold based on current trends.
08/11/21 seasaw
This was too close last time to be considered safe, remember Mitzie Hunter won by only 74 votes the last time and there were allegations made against the PC candidate just days before the vote. Those allegations were later proven to be false, they won?€™t be able to make any allegations this time and regardless of how much more favourable the situation is for the Liberals, you can bet that the PC?€™s will be targeting this riding, especially when the Liberal incumbent carries a lot of baggage.
12/05/21 Chris N
Despite a terrible 2018 showing for the Liberals, Mitzie Hunter was able to hang on by a nose. With a much more favourable political climate for the Liberals post-Wynne, I expect Hunter to get re-elected.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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