Scarborough-Guildwood

	Boulding, Dean
	Clarke, Kevin
	Day, Opa Hope
	Hunter, Mitzie
	Javier, Veronica
	Moore, William
	Vianga, Alicia

Incumbent:

		Mitzie Hunter
Population (2016):			102386
Population (2011):			101914
2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)
		MITZIE HUNTER *
		11,972	33.34%
		ROSHAN NALLARATNAM
		11,898	33.14%
		TOM PACKWOOD
		9,917	27.62%
		LINDA RICE
		878	2.45%
		HAMID-REZA DEHNAD-TABATABAEI
		445	1.24%
		GEORGE MARCOS GARVIDA
		419	1.17%
		WANDA RYAN
		159	0.44%
		HEATHER DUNBAR
		151	0.42%
		BENJAMIN MBAEGBU
		66	0.18%
2014 Election Result: (Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)
		16,154	50.35%
		8,964	27.94%
		5,448	16.98%
		902	2.81%
	OTHERS	614	1.91%
	Total Transposed		32,082
Component Riding(s)
	Scarborough-Guildwood (88.24% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions
	Scarborough Centre (11.76% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions
2021 Federal Election Prediction
2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		John McKay **
		26,123	61.10%
		Quintus Thuraisingham
		9,553	22.40%
		Michelle Spencer
		4,806	11.20%
		Tara McMahon
		1,220	2.90%
		Jigna Jani
		648	1.50%
		Kevin Clarke
		112	0.30%
		Gus Stefanis
		85	0.20%
		Stephen Abara
		70	0.20%
		Kathleen Marie Holding
		70	0.20%
		Farhan Alvi
		55	0.10%
2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		John McKay **
		25,167	60.00%
		Chuck Konkel
		11,108	26.50%
		Laura Casselman
		4,720	11.30%
		Kathleen Holding
		606	1.40%
		Kevin Clarke
		175	0.40%
		Paul Coulbeck
		141	0.30%

	01/06/2022	prog15 72.141.255.214
All of Scarborough is an example of a section of multiethnic federal Lib voters supporting Ontario PC to an extent that makes Ford government reelection (conditionally) the likeliest outcome - federal immigration interests might be to blame. PCs have four ridings with good chances of reelection (and not only traditionally more conservative Agincourt). There is little incentive for voters here to stay with a Lib candidate who unlike A.S. assertion, has a huge baggage of woke education agenda at a time when those same multiethnic voters are very concerned of indoctrinating education, on gender and many other issues. With the many bridges Ford government built with ethnic communities, voting for a Lib from a party that failed in its election campaign is not a clear choice. I think it is more of a three-way race in Guildwood, but PCs have an advantage of building strong base in the area and increasing support in the past four years. This will be close, but the likeliest call should be for the PCs.
	01/06/2022	Bluffer72 45.72.219.179
This race has the potential to be a lot closer than many people suspect. The PCs virtually won (if not in reality) what was considered to be one of the safest Liberal seats in the province (and, federally, in the country). The NDP has done well here in a few elections (notably in 2011 at the federal level during the so-called "Orange Wave" and the last provincial election) without having a particularly visible candidate or much of a ground game. This time around, NDP orange signs dot the riding, and even NDP federal leader Jag(meet) Singh reared his head for a day with the local candidate. Doug Ford and Caroline Mulroney have also showed up in the riding showing that the PCs think they can swing this. It will all come down to the NDP. If that increased visibility from the NDP pays off even a little, then Mitzie loses. It'll be interesting see what happens on Thursday night.
	29/05/2022	Tony Ducey 24.137.72.105
Ford may be on cruise control and should win a 2nd term on Thursday but I do expect the Liberals to make some gains on June 2 and retain most of their current seats, that includes here. Maybe Mitzie Hunter could run for Liberal leader again if Del Duca resigns as Liberal leader.
	17/05/2022	Not Non-Partisan 184.146.146.200
With Ford on cruise control, it’s going to be pretty much a clean sweep in Scarborough. The Beaver Cleaverland of Guildwood personifies the Ford Nation. It’s surprising the PCs didn’t win in 2018, they’ll finish the job in ‘22.
	12/05/2022	Kevin 76.69.130.27
I think Mitzie Hunter despite vandalism of her signs will win the Riding by 5000-6000 votes. She has worked hard and has good constituency workers.
	28/04/22	LeftCoast 207.194.253.26
This one stayed with the Liberals in their 2018 wipeout, and with they're polling numbers restored somewhat, they're unlikely to lose it.
	23/04/22	Colin O'Neal 99.238.151.130
As noted by others, Mitzie Hunter's photo-finish win in the last election during the worst LPO campaign in a generation suggests that she will get re-elected in 2022.
	30/03/22	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Other than PC inside-baseball matters, what kind of "baggage" does Mitzie Hunter carry, really? I'd assume her prevailing against all odds in '18 is a mark of her transcending any such baggage. Of course, w/a margin like that, the PCs will target it; but voters aren't necessarily sympathetic to what they might see as an "electoral entitlement" complex--and besides, there's always the likelihood of their battling to mutual self-cancellation, given how the NDP came within 6 points of the top w/a virtual non-campaign last time. Still, it's interesting how in '18, the race played out like a Scarberia-ethnoburban version of Obama/Trump vs Romney/Clinton: the hitherto "Lib-leaning" N part going Tory, and the hitherto "Tory-friendly" S part going Liberal (and the NDP racking up a whole slew of 2nds and near-2nds to either party).
	14/03/22	R.O. 24.146.13.249
Mitzie Hunter was first elected in a 2013 by election which was fairly close then re elected in 2014 by a large margin and 2018 also a close race in this riding . new pc candidate this election Alicia Vianga and not sure who the ndp will run here. its possible this riding competitive again but do sense its a liberal hold based on current trends.
	08/11/21	seasaw 99.225.229.135
This was too close last time to be considered safe, remember Mitzie Hunter won by only 74 votes the last time and there were allegations made against the PC candidate just days before the vote. Those allegations were later proven to be false, they won?¢â‚¬â„¢t be able to make any allegations this time and regardless of how much more favourable the situation is for the Liberals, you can bet that the PC?¢â‚¬â„¢s will be targeting this riding, especially when the Liberal incumbent carries a lot of baggage.
	12/05/21	Chris N 24.36.32.209
Despite a terrible 2018 showing for the Liberals, Mitzie Hunter was able to hang on by a nose. With a much more favourable political climate for the Liberals post-Wynne, I expect Hunter to get re-elected.