Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Scarborough Centre

Prediction Changed
2022-05-31 12:26:00

Constituency Profile



Beatty, Paul

Faruq, Fatima

Jaber, Hidie

Korovitsyn, Serge

Rosch, Raphael

Shafiq, Mazhar

Shan, Neethan

Smith, David

Stefanis, Kostadinos

Tzvetanova, Maria

Christina Mitas

Population (2016):

Population (2011):108826

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

18,648 55.19%
7,093 20.99%
6,967 20.62%
1,046 3.10%
OTHERS 35 0.10%
Total Transposed 33,789
      Component Riding(s)

Scarborough Centre
(91.82% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Scarborough Southwest
(8.18% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Salma Zahid **
Irshad Chaudhry
Faiz Kamal
John Cannis
Dordana Hakimzadah
Jeremiah Vijeyaratnam

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Salma Zahid
Roxanne James **
Alex Wilson
Katerina Androutsos
Lindsay Thompson


29/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Prior to 2018 this had been Liberal since 2003.Here in 2022 the PC MPP who was elected in 2018 isn't running again so this is an open seat. Given current trends I think the PC's retain.
25/05/2022 R.O.
At the start of election this riding seemed like an unlikely pc hold although as the campaign has progressed a hold is starting to appear more possible. Province wide numbers continue to show a big pc lead and Scarborough is more ford/pc friendly than downtown Toronto. Del Duca and Horwath have both struggled to gain traction and advance voting in its 7th day so a lot already voted. Although this riding likely to be close at least closer than the other Scarborough ridings.
25/05/2022 KXS
This race is between the Liberals and PCs, though I think the NDP will have a strong third place showing with perennial candidate Neethan Shan.
I think the Liberals will eek out a narrow victory here.
15/05/2022 Anon
I think the Libs narrowly win this seat. Conservative candidate is the trustee David Smith, doesn't have a great ground game. The Libs Mazhar Shafiq is knocking doors like crazy and I think that will make the difference come June 2.
06/05/2022 SarahMitts
For political junkies, this is a top five race to watch. The cost of living will be the main political issue in Ontario and with a potential three-way race in this riding, I expect the party that can deliver the best message on affordability will win this riding by mere percentage points.
06/05/2022 Miroslav Glavi?
Christina Mitas (incumbent) is not running. The Ontario PC's website has DAVID SMITH as candidate.
The Liberal candidate is Mazhar Shafiq. He ran in 2018. Got 3rd place.
The only real reason Christina Mitas won is because riding MPP Brad Duguid did not run. He would of won.
I have no Idea who Mazhar Shafiq is and according to his bio on the Ontario Liberal website: Mazhar Shafiq is a dedicated community volunteer and former highway engineer. He is an active supporter of several charities, community groups, and local hospitals including the Scarborough Hospital.
David Smith's bio: David is a long-time Scarborough Center resident with a strong record of contribution in our community. As Trustee for Toronto District School Board Ward 17 for the past 12 years, Davidhas worked effectively with all levels of government to reduce backlog, streamline administration and deliver results for Scarborough Center students and residents. This includes solar panels and other amenities for elementary schools; merging two aging schools, Mary Thompson Collegiate and Bendale BTI, into a new world-class facility and football field; and installing cameras throughout the ward to enhance safety. David has also worked with the City of Toronto and the Ontario Ministry of Education to implement new programs, create more daycare spaces, and bring the Leonard Braithwaite Afro-Centric program to Winston Churchill Collegiate. During the last two COVID-19 years, he continued that tradition of successful collaboration with health delivery stakeholders including the Ontario Ministry of Health, Toronto Public Health, the Scarborough Health Network, teachers and parents, to ensure consistent and quality education through the use of virtual, on-line, and hybrid models. Before politics, David worked in the financial services industry while involved in a range of Scarborough community development initiatives. He has also served as on the CNE Exhibition Committee, as a director of Toronto Lands Corp, as Chair of Employment Insurance Appeals of Referees, and as Chair of Finance Administration and Accountability of the Toronto District School Board.
I don't need to point out Neethan Shan's bio. He has ran in almost every Scarborough riding a million times over. He does not get it that the people do not want him. If they did, he would of been elected. He got 3rd place in 2007. 2nd place in 2011 & 2014. In 2018 he went down to 3rd. place.
He would have a bigger chance in the Tamil heavy areas of Scarborough Rouge Park/River.
05/05/2022 Ontario Voter
This is my home riding. The NDP are running a strong and aggressive campaign so far to my surprise. Their campaign office is located very centrally within the riding and has been buzzing with activity. Just walking through the area they by far have the most signs in residential areas so far. The Liberals also have some signs up but the Conservatives have been virtually invisible so far with their ground game. The fact Andrea Horwath visited this riding on the first day of the campaign tells me the NDP think they have a good chance at winning. It seems too close to call for me at the moment but if I were to make a prediction at the moment I would say its between the NDP and the Liberals.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
Neethan Shan for the NDP will make this competitive, but with the NDP in a distant third in the city it's unlikely they'll pick anything up. PCs are going in without an incumbent. I think this'll be a Liberal pickup.
23/04/22 Colin O'Neal
Scarborough Centre could be a tight three way race. Yes, Neethan Shan has run for office a million times in different Scarborough ridings, but he has performed well, including during times when the NDP typically did not perform well in Scarborough. This was a Liberal stronghold throughout the McGuinty era, so the Liberals can't be discounted either. It would not surprise me if this riding was won with a plurality of 33% or lower.
05/04/22 Landon G.
Slight edge at this moment to the PCs, though it entirely depends on how the campaign turns out. I believe this currently holds the title of the longest-serving provincial bellwether riding, though of course that only holds true until it doesn't. All 3 major parties are in it to win here, and I predict all will get over 25%. The extent to which the Liberal and NDP candidates might have the riding's large Muslim and Tamil communities respectively behind them will be a factor. I'd say PC candidate David Smith has the highest profile in the riding itself, as the long-serving school trustee. He's gotten a bit of negative press over the years though, and he's a very odd choice for the PCs, since he's long been the union's standard bearer in his trustee races, and has usually won only by quite small margins against an *actually* conservative challenger. Still, the notability he does have will likely help him build a broader coalition (maybe not all that unlike Raymond Cho in Scarborough North, who was considered rather quirky and left-leaning before becoming an enthusiastic and electorally successful PC).
04/04/22 R.O.
David Smith is the new pc candidate for Scarborough Centre , very generic name had to google to figure who he was and not the same Dave Smith who is mpp for Peterborough. He is a public school trustee for Scarborough Centre area . which is an elected position but those elections are less partisan and tend to not generate much interest. Still enough profile to keep the pc’s competitive here
30/03/22 A.S.
I wouldn't sniff at Neethan Shan; he may technically be a perennial loser, but he's also a perennial overachiever relative to a provincial party that had been perennially losing in Scarborough for ages. And y'know, this is the NDP, the party of candidates who keep perennially losing until they actually win, from Mel Swart on down. Of course, this is a different riding from where Shan's run in the past; and one not devoid of an NDP history in its own right (even if demographics were different then). And of course, the NDP's not the only (much less the guaranteed likeliest) fish in this sea--though it's worth noting how in '18, on a SC drive-thru within a couple of weeks of the election, I saw virtually no signage (main-street, at least) for the NDP, and plenty for both the Libs and PCs. So if the party could have done as well as it did in '18 with that little sign presence so close to e-day, imagine how they could have done that year had more people noticed they existed...
26/03/22 Jeremus von Stroheim
Neethan shan has never won a provincial election, desipte god know how many attempts. I don't think history will be made, leaving this a Liberal/PC battleground, and no incumbent as well. Perhaps this can change based off who the PCs choose as their candidate, but I'd say this would lean every so slightly Liberal, despite a mediocre candidate.
21/03/22 R.O.
Chrisina Mitas who got elected here in 2018 announced a few months ago that she was not running again. Likely one of the tougher seats in the 416 that went pc last election for them to hold onto with no incumbent. Although could still go pc if there able to find a strong candidate its unclear who there candidate is here. Mazhar Shafiq is running again for liberals and Neethan Shan for ndp he has ran for ndp in Scarborough before but not in this riding.
02/03/22 KXS
The Tories are bound to lose a few seats in the GTA and I feel this will be one of them. This is a key target seat for the Liberals.
Unless polling changes, I don't think the NDP will perform as well in Scarborough as they did last time around. Neethan Shan is also seen as a perennial loser.
08/10/21 Dr Bear
Given the strong 2018 showing for the NDP and the former Liberal MPP reoffending, I would expect a vote split allowing the PCs to come up the middle. It is still way too early to tell at the point. A seat to watch!
27/09/21 Sam
I believe the incumbent here is the only unvaccinated PC MPP, but that's due to a medical exemption. Nevertheless, once that story goes away, she'll have a fight on her hands in one of money GTA ridings where good provincial numbers and a vote split gave a PC candidate a victory. And that's exactly what she needs to win again, it would seem - for the Liberals to take even more of that NDP vote (but not too much to win), but that's a steeper challenge with declining provincial numbers. Too early to call for now.

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