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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Scarborough-Agincourt


Prediction Changed
2022-05-26 00:48:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Babikian, Aris

Morgan, Donny

Scott, Jacqueline

Truong, Benjamin Lee

Vega, Rane

Wong, Soo


Incumbent:
Aris Babikian

Population (2016):

105542
Population (2011):104499


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

ARIS BABIKIAN
18,58250.40%
SOO WONG *
10,42928.29%
TASLEEM RIAZ
6,43417.45%
LYDIA WEST
6351.72%
MARK SINCLAIR
2440.66%
JUDE COUTINHO
1890.51%
RUBINA ANSARY
1480.40%
CARLOS LACUNA
1180.32%
BADIH RAWDAH
920.25%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

17,166 49.80%
11,941 34.64%
4,078 11.83%
901 2.61%
OTHERS 386 1.12%
Total Transposed 34,470
      Component Riding(s)

Scarborough-Agincourt
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Jean Yip **
21,11550.50%
Sean Hu
15,49237.00%
Larisa Julius
3,6368.70%
Randi Ramdeen
1,0502.50%
Anthony Internicola
5211.20%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Arnold Chan **
21,58751.90%
Bin Chang
15,80238.00%
Laura Patrick
3,2637.90%
Debra Scott
5701.40%
Jude Coutinho
3340.80%


 

29/05/2022 Tony Ducey
24.137.72.105
This was a long time Liberal riding prior to 2018. I think the Liberals could have won it back if they had had a stronger campaign. They did not so a PC hold here.
06/05/2022 Miroslav Glavi?
142.112.216.212
The chances of and NDP winning are the same chances like Putin stopping the invasion of Ukraine, apologizing and driving to Kyiv and surrendering. Green and others have even less chance.
Soo Wong was among majority of Liberal MPPs that lost. She got 10,000 something. Aris Babikian got 18,000 something.
Aris Babikian lives in the riding. Soo Wong does not.
Aris ethnically is Armenian. The riding has a big Armenian population on the southwest corner of the riding (Sheppard/Victoria Park). Spilling into the Don Valley North.
Soo Wong is Chinese. There is a big Chinese population.
The Chinese population, at least the older population tends to vote Conservative, while the younger ones tend to vote Liberal.
Aris is a former Citizenship Judge. Soo is a nurse (not sure if active or retired), Soo sat in Toronto's Health Board.
I can't remember the NDP candidates ever living in the riding or ever been in the riding outside elections. Same for the Greens.
06/05/2022 R.O.
24.146.13.249
The forum poll has new numbers for Toronto in Scarborough its 47 pc , lib 32 , ndp 17 . these numbers arent specific to this riding but only 6 Scarborough ridings. Ford did well in scarborough municipally and seems to be doing better here provincially then pcs did in past elections although they did win seats in scarborough during the 90s.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
207.194.253.26
Soo Wong, Liberal MPP defeated in 2018, is returning. This is a strong Liberal seat federally but is more competitive provincially. I think strong OLP numbers in the city versus weak Tory ones will see her pull through.
30/03/22 A.S.
99.225.52.35
A PC-Lib rematch; and given how Soo Wong did relatively well by '18 Lib incumbent standards (perhaps w/the assist of a contentious NDP candidate), who's to blame her for trying again. Plus, there's the matter of the Chinese electorate's swing to the federal Liberals btw/'19 and '21. Provincial is different, I know (esp. under Doug Ford); but it's all something to keep in mind.
28/03/22 R.O.
24.146.13.249
Aris Babikian was first elected here in 2018 as a pc candidate , first time riding had not been liberal since the late 80’s. he beat liberal mpp Soo Wong who is running again this year, appears to be the only former liberal mpp running in there former riding in the 416 but some are running in 905 . Conservatives have had some strong results here federally and provincially in the past but 2018 was the first time they actually won here. its unclear who the ndp plan to run here but typically not been one of there target seats in Toronto.
15/12/21 seasaw
69.157.38.158
This riding was a safe Liberal riding until the last election. Now, we don?€™t exactly know whether the riding was Liberal or it was a Gerry Phillips riding. The previous poster mentioned that this was the strongest Liberal showing in Scarborough, but it was also the second strongest PC showing in the 416, second only to Doug Ford?€™s riding. The strong showing as well as the fact that Aris has been a good, hardworking constituency MPP, should be enough for the PC?€™s to hold
08/11/21 seasaw
99.225.229.135
This had been a Liberal riding since inception, the Liberals took it during the Rae and Harris majorities, but we don?€™t know if it was a Liberal riding or a Gerry Phillips riding. Regardless, this was the second best showing for the PC?€™s in 416 ( the best was Doug Ford?€™s riding ), this and the fact that Aris has been a very hard working constituency MPP gives the PC?€™s the advantage
29/09/21 Chris N
24.36.46.234
This was the ?€?strongest?€™ showing for the Liberals in the seats they lost in Scarborough in 2018, and the weakest result for the NDP. I give the slight advantage to the Conservatives, but I would not rule out a Liberal win in 2022.



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