Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2021-06-30 17:45:00

Constituency Profile



Bailey, Bob

Benn, Keith

Bourdeau, Mason

Olson, Carla

Orchard, Ian

Russell, Mark

Stelpstra, Dylan

Bob Bailey

Population (2016):

Population (2011):106293

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

8,152 17.86%
18,722 41.01%
16,327 35.77%
2,109 4.62%
OTHERS 340 0.74%
Total Transposed 45,650
      Component Riding(s)

(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Marilyn Gladu **
Adam Kilner
Carmen Lemieux
Peter Robert Smith
Brian Everaert
Thomas Laird

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Marilyn Gladu
Jason Wayne McMichael
Dave McPhail
Peter Smith


01/06/2022 prog15
This riding overall has firmly shifted to the conservative dominance patterns of Huron-Bruce and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, has a strong incumbent and like those two other ridings, is unlikely to change its 2018 voting patterns except for some marginal right parties' vote unlikely to dent the incumbents meaningfully. As for the 'Ford is for the rich Toronto guys' dog whistle strategy that A.S. has suggested here for the NDP in a posting back in April, it has failed to make an impression this year in spite of many ads on the issue - where it appeals most is paradoxically in central Toronto (what this site calls the Old City of (pre-amalgamation) Toronto) where the competition is generally between the shades of the left and the far left - few vote on this basis in Southwestern Ontario (even putting aside the slogan's questionable assertion).
31/05/2022 Jeremus von Stroheim
I don't believe any major party leader has visited this riding during this election, not even a whistle stop, which must be a first time this has happened in at least the past 2 decades(harder to find articles of leader visits older than that). I think that will certainly help the New Blue's perform quite well here, though it will likely stay Tory, with NDP falling to like 20%, like what happens when they neglected this riding federally.
29/05/2022 Tony Ducey
I have the PC's holding on here with current MPP, Bob Bailey.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
Rural traditional conservative voters+working-class industrial city? Easy PC hold.
20/04/22 A.S.
Somehow or another, from the mid-aughts onward, the NDP came to be fixated upon Sarnia-Lambton as a targetable proposition--and all of this while the seat was shifting dramatically rightward thanks largely to the Xtian-Con rural parts in the E. But the most any of that led to was the NDP becoming the nominal opposition force in lieu of the Libs, federally as well as provincially--which carried an "Oshawa exceptionality" for a while there, but provincially by '18, none of that was anything unusual, anymore. In fact, the nature of Ford Nation populism led to a realignment within Sarnia proper: until '18, NDP strength was heavily concentrated in the blue-collar S of the city, but now those south-side landslide-NDP zones were veering toward NDP/PC supermarginality instead, while the more middle-class portions t/w Lake Huron shifted leftward on the entrails of the Libs. The 402 as the divide btw/Obama-Trump Sarnia (or '14 Andrea) to the S, and Romney-Clinton Sarnia (or '18 Andrea) to the N. Thus thanks to those two ships passing in the night, '18 was both a Dipper high-water mark and a dead end for them in Sarnia--maybe if the spirit of '14 and '18 Andrea can be re-fused and the '22 Tories can be seen as more in thrall to "rich GTA people" than "the little guy" (i.e. Andrea as paradoxically more "classic Ford Nation" in the touchy-feely Rob Ford sense than Doug Ford is), that quixotic Dipper strategizing in recent years might come to something. And maybe, too, if any Lib comeback peels off more "Bright's Grove Tory" votes than anything (and remember that over all this time of the seat becoming the blackest of black holes for the Libs, former federal/provincial Lib candidate Mike Bradley has remained Sarnia mayor for over a third of a century running; so it's not as if the brand's *totally" mud, municipally speaking at least).
10/04/22 Jeremus von Stroehim
For a riding where the NDP had a pretty decent showing last election, it's strange that there has been no hint of a candidate. Likely too close to the election for them to mount a campaign, and the Liberal's don't have a shot in their worst riding. Should be a strong PC hold
15/03/22 R.O.
Bob Bailey was first elected here in 2007 , has indicated he plans to run again. This riding had been a swing riding but been conservative for a numbers of years recently. The ndp did do well here last 2 elections but difficult to see them doing better this election. Is also no other candidates nominated here that I?€™m aware of.
13/03/22 seasaw
Sure, we can put Sarnia-Lambton as a PC lock. Bailey?€™s been MPP for 15 years and he won by well over 50% of the vote. Sure, NDP has made gains in this riding, but you can?€™t expect the Liberal vote to stay at 4%. Barring an unforeseen event, this riding is safe PC.
01/07/21 KXS
I think it's premature to put Sarnia-Lambton as a PC lock. The NDP is making a play for this riding and has an outside chance to win it should their campaign catch momentum.
18/06/21 JW
For the most part, Southwestern Ontario (other than KW/Tricities) will be two way fight between PC and NDP. Rural SW has been realiable conservative territory both federally and provincially in the past 15 or so years.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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