Sarnia-Lambton

	Bailey, Bob
	Benn, Keith
	Bourdeau, Mason
	Olson, Carla
	Orchard, Ian
	Russell, Mark
	Stelpstra, Dylan

Incumbent:

		Bob Bailey
Population (2016):			105337
Population (2011):			106293
2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)
		BOB BAILEY *
		26,811	52.75%
		KATHY ALEXANDER
		18,995	37.37%
		NEIL WERELEY
		2,246	4.42%
		KEVIN SHAW
		1,856	3.65%
		ANDY BRUZIEWICZ
		601	1.18%
		JEFF LOZIER
		250	0.49%
		FANINA R. KODRE
		71	0.14%
2014 Election Result: (Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)
		8,152	17.86%
		18,722	41.01%
		16,327	35.77%
		2,109	4.62%
	OTHERS	340	0.74%
	Total Transposed		45,650
Component Riding(s)
	Sarnia-Lambton (100.00% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions
2021 Federal Election Prediction
2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		Marilyn Gladu **
		28,623	49.40%
		Adam Kilner
		12,644	21.80%
		Carmen Lemieux
		12,041	20.80%
		Peter Robert Smith
		2,490	4.30%
		Brian Everaert
		1,587	2.70%
		Thomas Laird
		531	0.90%
2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		Marilyn Gladu
		22,565	38.80%
		Jason Wayne McMichael
		18,102	31.10%
		Dave McPhail
		15,853	27.30%
		Peter Smith
		1,605	2.80%

	01/06/2022	prog15 72.141.255.214
This riding overall has firmly shifted to the conservative dominance patterns of Huron-Bruce and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, has a strong incumbent and like those two other ridings, is unlikely to change its 2018 voting patterns except for some marginal right parties' vote unlikely to dent the incumbents meaningfully. As for the 'Ford is for the rich Toronto guys' dog whistle strategy that A.S. has suggested here for the NDP in a posting back in April, it has failed to make an impression this year in spite of many ads on the issue - where it appeals most is paradoxically in central Toronto (what this site calls the Old City of (pre-amalgamation) Toronto) where the competition is generally between the shades of the left and the far left - few vote on this basis in Southwestern Ontario (even putting aside the slogan's questionable assertion).
	31/05/2022	Jeremus von Stroheim 23.248.145.246
I don't believe any major party leader has visited this riding during this election, not even a whistle stop, which must be a first time this has happened in at least the past 2 decades(harder to find articles of leader visits older than that). I think that will certainly help the New Blue's perform quite well here, though it will likely stay Tory, with NDP falling to like 20%, like what happens when they neglected this riding federally.
	29/05/2022	Tony Ducey 24.137.72.105
I have the PC's holding on here with current MPP, Bob Bailey.
	28/04/22	LeftCoast 207.194.253.26
Rural traditional conservative voters+working-class industrial city? Easy PC hold.
	20/04/22	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Somehow or another, from the mid-aughts onward, the NDP came to be fixated upon Sarnia-Lambton as a targetable proposition--and all of this while the seat was shifting dramatically rightward thanks largely to the Xtian-Con rural parts in the E. But the most any of that led to was the NDP becoming the nominal opposition force in lieu of the Libs, federally as well as provincially--which carried an "Oshawa exceptionality" for a while there, but provincially by '18, none of that was anything unusual, anymore. In fact, the nature of Ford Nation populism led to a realignment within Sarnia proper: until '18, NDP strength was heavily concentrated in the blue-collar S of the city, but now those south-side landslide-NDP zones were veering toward NDP/PC supermarginality instead, while the more middle-class portions t/w Lake Huron shifted leftward on the entrails of the Libs. The 402 as the divide btw/Obama-Trump Sarnia (or '14 Andrea) to the S, and Romney-Clinton Sarnia (or '18 Andrea) to the N. Thus thanks to those two ships passing in the night, '18 was both a Dipper high-water mark and a dead end for them in Sarnia--maybe if the spirit of '14 and '18 Andrea can be re-fused and the '22 Tories can be seen as more in thrall to "rich GTA people" than "the little guy" (i.e. Andrea as paradoxically more "classic Ford Nation" in the touchy-feely Rob Ford sense than Doug Ford is), that quixotic Dipper strategizing in recent years might come to something. And maybe, too, if any Lib comeback peels off more "Bright's Grove Tory" votes than anything (and remember that over all this time of the seat becoming the blackest of black holes for the Libs, former federal/provincial Lib candidate Mike Bradley has remained Sarnia mayor for over a third of a century running; so it's not as if the brand's *totally" mud, municipally speaking at least).
	10/04/22	Jeremus von Stroehim 23.248.145.246
For a riding where the NDP had a pretty decent showing last election, it's strange that there has been no hint of a candidate. Likely too close to the election for them to mount a campaign, and the Liberal's don't have a shot in their worst riding. Should be a strong PC hold
	15/03/22	R.O. 24.146.13.249
Bob Bailey was first elected here in 2007 , has indicated he plans to run again. This riding had been a swing riding but been conservative for a numbers of years recently. The ndp did do well here last 2 elections but difficult to see them doing better this election. Is also no other candidates nominated here that I?¢â‚¬â„¢m aware of.
	13/03/22	seasaw 69.157.38.158
Sure, we can put Sarnia-Lambton as a PC lock. Bailey?¢â‚¬â„¢s been MPP for 15 years and he won by well over 50% of the vote. Sure, NDP has made gains in this riding, but you can?¢â‚¬â„¢t expect the Liberal vote to stay at 4%. Barring an unforeseen event, this riding is safe PC.
	01/07/21	KXS 99.247.130.189
I think it's premature to put Sarnia-Lambton as a PC lock. The NDP is making a play for this riding and has an outside chance to win it should their campaign catch momentum.
	18/06/21	JW 45.41.168.96
For the most part, Southwestern Ontario (other than KW/Tricities) will be two way fight between PC and NDP. Rural SW has been realiable conservative territory both federally and provincially in the past 15 or so years.